Julio Pablo Reyes Fernandez

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Verified

Julio verified their affiliation via an institutional email.

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• PhD
• Researcher at National Institute for Space Research

This user’s guide describes the procedure for installing and running the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) on INPE’s EGEON cluster. The aim of this guide will be the more transparent, explicit, and friendly possible for the internal users and external abroad community.

This study presents novel insight into the mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) reduction and its recovery under a warmer climate scenario. An one-thousand-year-long numerical simulation of a global coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere climate model, subjected to a stationary atmospheric radiative forcing, depict a coherent pict...

Climate projections simulated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM2.5) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios are analyzed based on future changes of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation with respect to the historical reference period 1971–2000. Since BESM2.5 is the only climate model developed in a South American country, this s...

This study presents novel insight into the mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) reduction and its recovery under a warmer climate scenario. An one-thousand-year-long numerical simulation of a global coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere climate model, subjected to a stationary atmospheric radiative forcing, depict a coherent pict...

The monsoon breaks in the core monsoon region of India, lasting a few days or sometimes even up to 2 weeks, are periods of low or no rainfall. Our analysis of breaks shows they are characteristically preceded by an upper-tropospheric transient blocking high over north India, which extends to low levels. The formation of this blocking high is found...

This study investigates the impact of future changes in climatic variables on dengue incidence in the region of the Tucurui dam in the Amazon. Tucurui dam is the one of the largest hydroelectric power stations in the Amazon. Correlations and regression analysis through least squares fitting between dengue cases and temperature, precipitation, and h...

The ability of the Regional Climate Model v4 (RegCM4) to simulate the surface radiation budget and hydrological balance variables over South America has been evaluated. For this purpose, a 34-year long simulation was carried out with the regional climate model RegCM4 over South America on the CORDEX domain. The model is forcing by ERA-Interim reana...

Aerosol particles from forest fire events in the Amazon can be effectively transported to urban areas in southeastern South America, thus affecting the air quality over those regions. A combination of observational data and a comprehensive air quality modeling system capable of anticipating acute air pollution episodes is therefore required. A new...

The main features of climate change patterns, as simulated by the coupled ocean–atmosphere version 2.5 of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM), are compared with those of 25 other CMIP5 models, focusing on temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and radiative feedbacks. The climate sensitivity to quadrupling the atmospheric CO2 conc...

Future changes of the aridity of South America (SA) are investigated. The projected changes of the Budyko and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) indices in the mid- and end of the twenty-first century from the ensemble mean RegCM4 simulations using the scenario RCP 8.5 are presented. The RegCM4 model driven by the global models of HadGEM2,...

Heavy rainfall and strong winds occurred in the South of Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil on 5 December 2015. In this study the synoptic conditions responsible for the storms and their social consequences are analyzed. Also, the state-of-art model (WRF) was used to simulate the atmospheric conditions in this severe event.The results showed that the...

The main features of climate change patterns, as simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere version 2.5 of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5) are contrasted with those of other 25 CMIP5 models, focusing on temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation. The climate sensitivity to quadrupling atmospheric CO2 concentration is invest...

O presente estudo propõe a utilização de uma ferramenta operacional prática que utiliza a combinação de índices de instabilidade atmosférica derivados do modelo WRF, a partir de testes com 3 diferentes microfísicas. Este método foi aplicado para a previsão de tempestades severas que ocorreram na região norte de SP entre 05 e 06 de junho de 2016.

Wind and atmospheric stability are fundamental for aerospace research and development activities at the Alcântara Launch Center, situated in the Maranhão Brazilian state. The physical processes related to these meteorological parameters during the dry season are well known. However, there is still gap concerning the rainy season. The data obtained...

This study aims to characterize the wind and thermodynamic structure of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) on the northern coast of Brazil (NCB) via the CHUVA datasets. Three synoptic conditions were present in the NCB region between March 1 and 25, 2010: a dry period, the Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortex (UTCV) and the Intertropical Convergence...

Seasonal changes exhibit climate changes, so models can predict future climate change accurately only if they can reproduce seasonal cycle accu-rately. Further, seasonal changes are much larger than the changes even in long period of centuries. Thus it is unwise to ignore large ones compared to small climate change. In this paper, we determine how...

Wind and atmospheric stability are fundamental for aerospace research and development activities at the Alcântara Launch Center, situated in the Maranhão Brazilian state. The physical processes related to these meteorological parameters during the dry season are well known. However, there is still gap concerning the rainy season. The data obtained...

The Koppen-Trewartha (K-T) classification is used to investigate the biomes change in the future climate over South America (SA). For the middle (2035-2060) and end (2075-2100) of the 21st century mean ensemble of Regional Climate Model version 4 simulations for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario are presented. The global-coupled...

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a interação da brisa e sistemas de escala sinótica durante as Olimpíadas do RIO (de 5 a 21 de agosto de 2016) utilizando o modelo WRF (The Weather Research and Forecasting Model) na resolução de 1KM, rodado no Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CPTEC/IN...

A ocorrência de períodos ativos (PA) e inativos (PI) durante o verao na regiao da moncao sul-americana e’ analisada usando dados da ESRL / NOAA, no período de 1989/90 a 2013/14 na região Centro-oeste do Brasil (10°-20°S e 50°-60°W).

This article describes the main features of the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM), analyses of its performance for tropical rainfall forecasting, and its sensitivity to convective scheme and horizontal resolution. BAM is the new global atmospheric model of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research (CPTEC), which includes a new...

This study evaluates the planetary boundary layer (PBL) by the sensitivity of different PBL parameterizations for the Alcântara Launch Center (CLA, in Portuguese). The study was produced using two distinct databases, an observational and other numeric. The observational data in surface and radiosondes were of the CHUVA Project for the Alcântara cam...

This study evaluates the planetary boundary layer (PBL) by the sensitivity of different PBL parameterizations for the Alcântara Rocket Launch Center (CLA). The study was produced using two distinct databases, an observational and other numeric. The observational data in surface and radiosondes were of the CHUVA Project for the Alcantara campaign an...

The impact of global warming on the aridity in South America (SA) is investigated. For this pur-pose, the methodology for generating surrogate climate-change scenarios with a RCM is employed. For the present climate (CTRL) the RCM is initialized with and driven by ECMWF/ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Two aridity indices are used: the Budyko and the U...

In mid-2012, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) released version 4.3 of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3). This version includes a new surface scheme, the Common Land Model (CLM); a new planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, the University of Washington PBL (UW-PBL); and new convection schemes including Tiedtke,...

This study investigates the impact of global warming on the savannization of the tropical land region and also examines the relative roles of the impact of the increase of greenhouse gas concentration and future changes in land cover on the tropical climate. For this purpose, a mechanistic–statistical–dynamical climate model with a bidirectional in...

This study aims to investigate the impact of the inclusion of rainfall data in the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system. A simplified global atmospheric model (SPEEDY) was used to check the performance of LETKF. The results were compared with those found using a perfect scenario (natural run). It was noted that th...

The so called re-analyses are processes with the objective of creating optimal atmospheric states for specific times where discontinuities resulting from eventual problemswith data and deficiencies in the model/data assimilation systems are minimized. Several methodologies to create Reanalysis fields have been employed in the past few years in main...

Heavy rainfall events in austral summer are responsible for almost all the natural disasters in Southeast Brazil. They are mostly associated with two types of atmospheric perturbations: Cold Front (53%) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (47%). The important question of what synoptic characteristics distinguish a heavy rainfall event (HRE) fro...

In this work a data assimilation study was performed to assess the impact of estimated precipitation from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) on the CPTEC (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos at Brasil) RPSAS (Regional Physical-space Statistical Analysis System) analyses and the Eta model forecast over the region of La Plata Bas...

The Southeastern of Brazil (SEB) is an important region to the country, due the economy to have the largest development among the five Brazilian regions, where is concentrated more of the half of the national production. It is also, the region with the largest demographic density and the highest urbanization index. During the austral summer the SEB...

In the first part of this study, occurrence of heavy/extreme events of precipitation in the Southeast Region of Brazil is investigated using daily precipitation data gathered by the Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) during the period from 1960 to 2005, for the months of the rainy season of the region (November to March). A rain episode is defined as...

The evolution of data processing technologies and of Earth observation systems, that have happened the last years, has contributed to the development of the operational data assimilation in CPTEC- INPE, and consequently several advances has been reached. The development of the new regional version, which is composed by PSAS (Physical-space Statisti...

To assure that an artificial neural network (NN) has a lightning forecast character with real practical applicability, at first it seems reasonable to choose input variables really representative of the phenomenon which confer results with errors inside acceptable limits. The purpose of this work is to compare the output skill scores of a lightning...

This study investigates the capabilities of two regional models (the ICTP RegCM3 and the climate version of the CPTEC Eta model – EtaClim) in simulating the mean climatological features of the summer quasi-stationary circulations over South America. Comparing the results with the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data it is seen that the RegCM3 simulates a we...

We present a preliminary evaluation of the performance of three different cumulus parameterization schemes in the ICTP Regional Climate Model RegCM3 for two overlapping domains (termed “big” and “small”) and horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) in the Caribbean area during the summer (July–August–September). The cumulus parameterizations were the...

This study investigates the capabilities of two regional models (the ICTP RegCM3 and the climate version of the CPTEC Eta model – EtaClim) in simulating the summer quasi-stationary circulations over South America during two extreme cases: the 1997–1998 El Niño and 1998–1999 La Niña. The results showed that both the models are successful in simulati...

The first use of the ETA CSS (regional climate model) for dynamical downscaling over South America. Presented pevious result of model running.

The regional Eta workstation (WS) model with horizontal resolution of 40 km has been integrated over South America for January 2003. The NCEP DOE Reanalysis II was used for initial and lateral boundary conditions. The comparison of the model-simulated and satellite-derived values of monthly mean incident solar radiation at the surface demonstrates...

Neste trabalho um novo esquema de parametrização da radiação solar é implementado no modelo ETACLIM, desenvolvido no CPTEC para estudos de mudanças climáticas regionais. Comparações entre as versões original e modificada do modelo e observações para o mês de janeiro de 2003, mostram uma melhoria na simulação dos fluxos de radiação solar à superfíci...

Neste trabalho são simuladas as circulações de verão na América do Sul considerando dois eventos extremos: El Niño/1997-1998 e La Niña/1998-1999. Foram utilizados dois modelos regionais climáticos o modelo Eta (versão clima) do CPTEC (ETACLIM) e a versão 3 do Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) do ICTP, para verificar a capacidade dos mesmos em simular...

Neste estudo são discutidas as características das ondas quase-estacionárias no Hemisfério Sul com ênfase na América do Sul. Numa primeira parte, foi realizado um estudo observacional, utilisando dados da reanálise do NCEP/NCAR, para analisar a natureza e a variabilidade sazonal e interanual das ondas quase-estacionárias. Na comparação da amplitude...

Characteristics of quasi-stationary (QS) waves in the Southern Hemisphere are discussed using 49 years (1950–1998) of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A comparison between the stationary wave amplitudes and phases between the recent data (1979–1998) and the entire 49 years data showed that the differences are not large and the 49 years data can be used f...

Quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) transport and Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux cross sections are examined for the Northern (NH) and Southern (SH) Hemispheres based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The seasonal march of EP flux and EP divergence (and consequently PV transport) indicates that they increase from summer to winter in both the hemisp...

Ensemble simulations with the Regional Climate Model (RegCM2) were perfomated using different convection sche- me and microphysics formulations. The member ensembles were realized on South America for january of 1997 (wet), based in monthly precipitation anomalies over the Amazonian Basin as determinated from Global Precipitation Climatology Projec...

Potential vorticity transport (PV)-Eliassen and Palm (EP) cross sections are studied for two contrasting years: 1995 1996 (La Niña) and 1997 1998 (El Niño). The results show that the largest differences in PV transport-EP fluxes between El Niño and La Niña events occur in winter in both hemispheres, but the changes are higher in the Northern Hemisp...

A diagnosis of rainfall over South America (SA)during the 1997/ 98 El Nino year is made examining the roles of water vapor transport and stationary waves. It is found that the low-level jet (LLJ)on the eastern side of the central Andes is stronger during the El Nino event and transports more moisture. This seems to be the source for higher rainfall...

In a recent study Renwick and Revell (1999, hereafter RR99) investigated the atmospheric blocking over the South Pacific. They found that the blocking events occur more frequently over the southeast Pacific during El Nino events in austral spring. Their analysis showed that blocking events are associated with large-scale wave trains lying across th...

The regional climate model RegCM2 was used to simulated the monthly rainfall distribution of the South America for June de 1994. The preliminary results have indicated that the simulated precipitation show a good agreement with the observed distribution mainly in the middle latitudes. RESUMO O modelo climático regional RegCM2 foi usado para simular...

A primitive equation global zonally averaged general circulation model is used to study the effects of the topography on the atmospheric annual cycle. A smoothed zonally averaged topography that has a form similar to that observed was used. The control experiment showed that the model was capable of capturing the zonally averaged behavior of the an...

A zonally-averaged climate model is used to study the effects of the Tibetean plateau on the monsoonal circulation. A smothed zonally-averaged topography which has a form similar to that observed is used. The results show that the model is able to reproduce the principal characteristics of the monsoonal circulation such as the seasonal wind reversa...

A two-layer, global, primitive equation zonally averaged model with diurnal cycle of radiation is used for studying the seasonal variations of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In order to investigate the mechanism that affects the displacement of the ITCZ over different types of surfaces three numerical experiments were made, considering...

Characteristics of quasi-stationary (QS) waves in the Southern Hemisphere are discussed using 51 years of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The amplitude of QS wave 1 has two maxima in the upper atmosphere, one at 30°S and the other at 60°S. QS waves 2 and 3 have much less amplitude. Monthly variation of the amplitude of QS wave 1 shows that it is highest...

A zonally-averaged climate model is used to study the effects of the Tibetean plateau on the monsoonal circulation. A smothed zonally-averaged topography which has a form similar to that observed is used. The results show that the model is able to reproduce the principal characteristics of the monsoonal circulation such as the seasonal wind reversa...

A zonally-averaged climate model is used for studying the seasonal variations of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In order to investigate the mechanisms that affects the displacement of ITCZ over different types of surface three numerical experiments were made, considering: a) the earth’s surface covered by the actual portions of land, o...