Julia Michalak

University of Washington | UW · School of Environmental and Forest Sciences

Abstract Climate change poses significant challenges to protected area management globally. Anticipatory climate adaptation planning relies on vulnerability assessments that identify parks and resources at risk from climate change and associated vulnerability drivers. However, there is currently little understanding of where and how protected area...

Vulnerability assessments of National Park Service units and resources including infrastructure, natural resources, and cultural resources were evaluated to better understand the “state of the science” among these resource groups. While approaches are diverse, methods for evaluating infrastructure and natural resource vulnerability assessments were...

Climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts, with major impacts to ecosystems globally. Broad-scale assessments of vegetation responses to drought are needed to anticipate, manage, and potentially mitigate climate-change effects on ecosystems. We quantified the drought sensitivity of vegetation in the Pacific N...

Climate‐change refugia – locations likely to facilitate species persistence under climate change – are increasingly important components of conservation planning. Recent approaches for identifying refugia at broad scales include identifying regions that are projected to experience less severe changes (climatic exposure), that contain a diversity of...

Climate‐change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate‐change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that ena...

Expanding the network of protected areas is a core strategy for conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. Here, we explore the impacts on reserve network cost and configuration associated with planning for climate change in the USA using networks that prioritize areas projected to be climatically suitable for 1460 species both today an...

Many species are already responding to global climate change by shifting their ranges to track suitable climatic conditions. However, habitat loss and fragmentation, coupled with the rapidity of climate change, make it difficult for species to keep pace. It is therefore unsurprising that enhancing landscape connectivity is the most frequently cited...

Addressing uncertainties in climate vulnerability remains a challenge for conservation planning. We evaluate how confidence in conservation recommendations may change with agreement among alternative climate projections and metrics of climate exposure. We assessed agreement among three multivariate estimates of climate exposure (forward velocity, b...

As evidenced by past climatic refugia, locations projected to harbor remnants of present-day climates may serve as critical refugia for current biodiversity in the face of modern climate change. We mapped potential climatic refugia in the future across North America, defined as locations with increasingly rare climatic conditions. We identified the...

Climate change will markedly alter the structure and function of ecosystems, with important implications for land management. Yet scientists' ability to predict future ecological conditions is hampered by uncertainty in both climate projections and ecological responses to climate change. More data are now available – from small-scale experimental r...

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological setting...

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few studies have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. Here, we identify key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species...

This chapter explores the relative uncertainty associated with popular approaches to conservation planning in the face of climate change. Concern about uncertainties inherent in climate-change projections and associated ecological impacts have led many in the conservation community to avoid climate modeling, and instead favor forecast-free approach...

Amphibian populations have been declining worldwide, with multiple potential causes. At La Selva field station in north-eastern Costa Rica, previous work has shown that populations of many amphibians have decreased significantly since the 1970s, especially in primary forest. Starting in 1998, we investigated one of the most common frog species at L...

This report summarizes the results from a climate change adaptation workshop focused on the Pioneer Mountains – Craters of the Moon landscape in south-central Idaho. The objective of the workshop was to collaborate with landscape managers to apply results from the Pacific Northwest climate change vulnerability assessment (PNWCCVA) to on-the-ground...

This report summarizes the results from a climate change adaptation workshop focused on the Columbia Plateau landscape in eastern Washington and parts of Idaho and Oregon. The objective of the workshop was to collaborate with landscape managers to apply results from the Pacific Northwest climate change vulnerability assessment (PNWCCVA) to on-the-g...

Historic land use is a potentially significant factor determining present day watershed condition. Previous research has shown that historical land uses can have lasting effects on watershed condition that are manifest in present day hydrologic and water quality variables. However, the relative importance of past land uses such as the extent and in...

Land use regulations are commonly established to avoid or minimize and mitigate the biophysical effects of development, yet their effectiveness is rarely assessed. We present a framework for assessing regulatory effectiveness, taking advantage of a relatively new set of land use regulations started in 2005 by King County to protect critical areas,...

Background/Question/Methods The expansion of residential and commercial development in the United States has taken a severe toll on the ecological integrity of our landscapes. Collaboration between urban planners, conservation biologists and policy makers is essential to address this and many other ecological conservation issues. Educators have a...

Background/Question/Methods Urban development commonly leads to a reduction in native species richness and increased dominance of non-native, urban-adapted species, a process termed “biotic homogenization.” As urban regions expand, it is essential that we improve our understanding of how these changes in community structure driven by urbanization...

Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana) woodlands are the focus of intensive conservation efforts. However, little is known about regeneration in protected oak stands, particularly in small stands surrounded by residential and commercial development. This study investigates the relationship between habitat and landscape structure and patterns of oak se...

Background/Question/Methods Our goal is to answer a fundamental yet controversial question: “Do strong land use regulations protect aquatic critical areas and biological resources?” This question has broad relevance. Public institutions throughout the U.S. face the challenge of integrating population growth, land conversion, and environmental pro...

Researchers widely recognize habitat loss as the most significant cause of species imperilment in the United States. In recent years, researchers, government agencies, and land use planners have become increasingly concerned about the impacts of urbanization and residential and commercial development on habitats and biodiversity. Development has bo...