Julia Blanchard

University of Tasmania · Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS)

There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine...

Robust projections of future trends in global fish biomass, production and catches are needed for informed fisheries policy in a changing climate. Trust in future projections, however, relies on establishing that models can accurately simulate past relationships between exploitation rates and ecosystem states. In addition, historical simulations ar...

Climate change is increasingly affecting the world's ocean ecosystems, necessitating urgent guidance on adaptation strategies to limit or prevent catastrophic impacts. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) is a network and framework that provides standardised ensemble projections of the impacts of climate change...

Emerging fishing activity due to melting ice and poleward species distribution shifts in the rapidly‐warming Arctic Ocean challenges transboundary management and requires proactive governance. A 2021 moratorium on commercial fishing in the Arctic high seas provides a 16‐year runway for improved scientific understanding. Given substantial knowledge...

Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomp...

As the urgency to evaluate the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems increases, there is a need to develop robust projections and improve the uptake of ecosystem model outputs in policy and planning. Standardising input and output data is a crucial step in evaluating and communicating results, but can be challenging when using models with...

The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unravelling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio-economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protoco...

Understanding climate change impacts on global marine ecosystems and fisheries requires complex marine ecosystem models, forced by global climate projections, that can robustly detect and project changes. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) uses an ensemble modelling approach to fill this crucial gap. Yet Fis...

Climate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. Earth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. Coupling these simulations w...

Robust projections of future trends in global fish biomass, production and catches under different fishing scenarios are needed to inform fisheries policy in a changing climate. Trust in future projections, however, relies on establishing that the models used can accurately simulate past relationships between exploitation rates, catches and ecosyst...

Food web projections are critical for evaluating potential risks to ecosystems and fisheries under global warming. The temperature dependence of biological processes and regional differences in food web structure are two important sources of uncertainty and variation in climate forced projections of fish communities, but we do not know their magnit...

Aquatic ectotherms often attain smaller body sizes at higher temperatures. By analysing ~15,000 coastal‐reef fish surveys across a 15°C spatial sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we found that the mean length of fish in communities decreased by ~5% for each 1°C temperature increase across space, or 50% decrease in mean length from 14 to 29°C m...

There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long-term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine...

Climate-driven ecosystem changes are increasingly affecting the world’s ocean ecosystems, necessitating urgent guidance on adaptation strategies to limit or prevent catastrophic impacts. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) is a network and framework that provides standardised ensemble projections of the impact...

A new database on historical country-level fishing fleet capacity and effort is described, derived from a range of publicly available sources that were harmonized, converted to fishing effort, and mapped to 30-min spatial cells. The resulting data is comparable with widely used but more temporally-limited satellite-sourced Automatic Identification...

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based...

The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combin...

Aquatic ectotherms often attain smaller body sizes at higher temperatures. By analysing ~15,000 coastal-reef fish surveys across a 15oC spatial sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we found that the mean length of fish length in communities decreases by ~5% for each 1oC temperature increase across space. This equated to a 50% decrease in mean le...

Body-size relationships between predators and prey exhibit remarkable diversity. However, the assumption that predators typically consume proportionally smaller prey often underlies size-dependent predation in ecosystem models. In reality, some animals can consume larger prey or exhibit limited changes in prey size as they grow larger themselves. T...

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predato...

Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilienc...

Fed aquaculture is one of the fastest‐growing and most valuable food production industries in the world. The efficiency with which farmed fish convert feed into biomass influences both environmental impact and economic revenue. Salmonid species, such as king salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), exhibit high levels of plasticity in vital rates such as...

Ecosystem models can play a supportive and informative role in the implementation of integrated approaches to marine resource management. Atlantis, an end-to-end biogeochemical marine ecosystem model, is capable of exploring a wide range of ecosystem aspects and interactions. To aid the testing and development of Atlantis as a central tool for inte...

The diverse aquaculture sector makes important contributions toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)/Agenda 2030, and can increasingly do so in the future. Its important role for food security, nutrition, livelihoods, economies, and cultures is not clearly visible in the Agenda 21 declaration. This may partly reflect the state of...

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, 70 www.isimip.org) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the...

Food production, particularly of fed animals, is a leading cause of environmental degradation globally.1,2 Understanding where and how much environmental pressure different fed animal products exert is critical to designing effective food policies that promote sustainability.3 Here, we assess and compare the environmental footprint of farming indus...

Feeding humanity puts enormous environmental pressure on our planet. These pressures are unequally distributed, yet we have piecemeal knowledge of how they accumulate across marine, freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here we present global geospatial analyses detailing greenhouse gas emissions, freshwater use, habitat disturbance and nutrient poll...

Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integr...

Changing sea temperatures and primary productivity are rapidly altering marine ecosystems, but with considerable uncertainty in our understanding of the relative importance of these drivers and how their interactions may affect fisheries yield through complex food webs. Such outcomes are more difficult to predict for shallow coastal ecosystems than...

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomi...

Multiple ocean sectors compete for space and resources, creating conflicts but also opportunities to plan for synergistic outcomes that benefit multiple sectors. Planning and management are increasingly informed by qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing multi-sector interactions to identify trade-offs and synergies among sectors and wit...

Resolving the combined effect of climate warming and exploitation in a food web context is key for predicting future biomass production, size‐structure, and potential yields of marine fishes. Previous studies based on mechanistic size‐based food web models have found that bottom‐up processes are important drivers of size‐structure and fisheries yie...

Managing ecosystems to effectively preserve function and services requires reliable tools that can infer changes in the stability and dynamics of a system. Conceptually, functional diversity (FD) appears a viable monitoring metric due to its mechanistic influence on ecological processes, but it is unclear whether changes in FD occur prior to state...

Significance The world produces enough food to nourish the global population, but inequitable distribution of food means many people remain at risk for undernutrition. Attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 2 relies on greater attention to distribution processes that match food qualities with dietary deficiencies. We explore this in the context...

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, and when they are, it is often at a national scale, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we co...

Climate change and fisheries exploitation are dramatically changing the abundances, species composition, and size spectra of fish communities. We explore whether variation in 'abundance size spectra', a widely studied ecosystem feature, is influenced by a parameter theorized to govern the shape of size-structured ecosystems-the relationship between...

Climate change and fisheries exploitation are dramatically changing the species composition, abundances, and size spectra of fish communities. We explore whether variation in abundance-size spectra, a widely studied ecosystem feature, is influenced by a critical parameter thought to govern the shape of size-structured ecosystems—the relationship be...

Global capture fisheries are a vital global food provisioning to help end hunger and malnutrition. To ensure that global seafood supply sustainably supports a growing population, many initiatives within the UN Sustainable-Development-Goals seek to balance management with efficient resource use. Here we examine changes for 150 countries that represe...

Wild-caught fish are a bioavailable source of nutritious food that, if managed strategically , could enhance diet quality for billions of people. However, optimising nutrient production from the sea has not been a priority, hindering development of nutrition-sensitive policies. With fisheries management increasingly effective at rebuilding stocks a...

Models help decision-makers anticipate the consequences of policies for ecosystems and people; for instance, improving our ability to represent interactions between human activities and ecological systems is essential to identify pathways to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. However, use of modeling outputs in decision-making remains unc...

For over 50 years, the conceptualisation of low-nutrient oligotrophic systems having longer food chains and thus lower energy transfer to fish than their high-nutrient eutrophic counterparts ¹ has achieved the status of an ecological paradigm. However, recent global assessments indicate global fish biomass could be much higher than previously thoug...

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth...

Although zooplankton are the primary energy pathway from phytoplankton to fish, we understand little about how climate change will modify zooplankton communities and their role in marine ecosystems. Using a trait-based marine ecosystem model resolving key zooplankton groups, we assess climate change impacts on zooplankton community composition and...

Ecological communities face a variety of environmental and anthropogenic stressors acting simultaneously. Stressor impacts can combine additively or can interact, causing synergistic or antagonistic effects. Our knowledge of when and how interactions arise is limited, as most models and experiments only consider the effect of a small number of non-...

Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals and impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present these estimates vary widely. A better understanding of what drives this inter-model variation will i...

Among the more widely accepted general hypotheses in ecology is that community relationships between abundance and body size follow a log‐linear size spectrum, from the smallest consumers to the largest predators (i.e. ‘bacteria to whales’). Nevertheless, most studies only investigate small subsets of this spectrum, and note that extreme size class...

Food from the sea can make a larger contribution to healthy and sustainable diets, and to addressing hunger and malnutrition, through improvements in production, distribution and equitable access to wild harvest and mariculture resources and products. The supply and consumption of seafood is influenced by a range of ‘drivers’ including ecosystem ch...

Amongst the more widely accepted general hypotheses in ecology is that community relationships between abundance and body size follow a log-linear size spectrum, from the smallest consumers to the largest predators (i.e., “bacteria to whales”). Nevertheless, most studies only investigate small subsets of this spectrum, due to extreme size classes t...

Aquaculture policy often promotes production of low‐trophic level species for sustainable industry growth. Yet, the application of the trophic level concept to aquaculture is complex, and its value for assessing sustainability is further complicated by continual reformulation of feeds. The majority of fed farmed fish and invertebrate species are pr...

Transfer efficiency is the proportion of energy passed between nodes in food webs. It is an emergent, unitless property that is difficult to measure, and responds dynamically to environmental and ecosystem changes. Because the consequences of changes in transfer efficiency compound through ecosystems, slight variations can have large effects on foo...

The frequency distribution of individual body sizes in animal communities (i.e. the size spectrum) provides powerful insights for understanding the energy flux through food webs. However, studies of size spectra in rocky and coral reef communities typically focus only on fishes or invertebrates due to taxonomic and data constraints, and consequentl...

Understanding regional-scale food web structure in the Southern Ocean is critical to informing fisheries management and assessments of climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems and ecosystem services. Historically, a large component of Southern Ocean ecosystem research has focused on Antarctic krill, which provide a short, highly efficien...

• Fishing is a strong selective force and is supposed to select for earlier maturation at smaller body size. However, the extent to which fishing‐induced evolution is shaping ecosystems remains debated. This is in part because it is challenging to disentangle fishing from other selective forces (e.g., size‐structured predation and cannibalism) in c...

Despite their critical role as the main energy pathway between phytoplankton and fish, the functional complexity of zooplankton is typically poorly resolved in marine ecosystem models. Trait-based approaches—where zooplankton are represented with functional traits such as body size—could help improve the resolution of zooplankton in marine ecosyste...

Climate-driven trends in ocean temperature and primary productivity are projected to differ greatly across the globe, triggering variable levels of concern for marine biota and ecosystems. Quantifying these changes, and the complex ways in which resource-dependent communities will need to respond, is inherently difficult. Existing uncertainty about...

In marine management, fish stocks are often managed on a stock-by-stock basis using single-species models. Many of these models are based upon statistical techniques and are good at assessing the current state and making short-term predictions; however, as they do not model interactions between stocks, they lack predictive power on longer timescale...

Climate‐driven species redistribution is pervasive and accelerating, yet the complex mechanisms at play remain poorly understood. The implications of large‐scale species redistribution for natural systems and human societies have resulted in a large number of studies exploring the effects on individual species and ecological communities worldwide....

Feeding a growing, increasingly affluent population while limiting environmental pressures of food production is a central challenge for society. Understanding the location and magnitude of food production is key to addressing this challenge because pressures vary substantially across food production types. Applying data and models from life cycle...