Juha Honkatukia

• VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

The study examined the effects of climate policy measures on the development of the national economy and on household income distribution using a dynamic general equilibrium model supplemented with a household microsimulation module.

The study utilises both an energy sector approach and an economic approach. The effects of specific policy measures on the choice of fuels is evaluated with the POLA model, while the effects on the economy are studied with the VATTAGE model, based on the well-known MONASH-model (Dixon and Rimmer, 2002). We have studied two alternative scenarios, th...

http://tietokayttoon.fi/julkaisu?pubid=16202

We analyse regionalization at the level of the twenty regions of Finland, using a dynamic, regional, AGE model. Our main finding is that regionalization has negative overall economic effects for Finland – it decreases national product and employment, deteriorates the fiscal balance and increases state transfers to municipalities. However, these eff...

This study estimates the economic effects of investing in energy efficiency in buildings on a national level. First conservation potentials in space heating for two different scenarios with different levels of investment in energy efficiency are quantified. This was done relying on statistical data and future projections of the development of the b...

The EU is considering the adoption of a tighter emission target, to replace the agreed -20 per cent emission target already agreed on. In this study, we analyze the implications of the proposed -30 per cent EU-wide emission cut from the perspective of the Finnish economy. We use an energy system model to study the technological choices and direct e...

In this study we evaluate the regional effects of ageing and balancing of fiscal deficits by using a dynamic, regional AGE model for Finnish Economy. According to our simulation results, constraining the fiscal deficits of the public sector has considerable effects on the GDP growth. The size of effects varies between our alternative ways to curb t...

The Low Carbon Finland 2050 project by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland aims to assess the technological opportunities and challenges involved in reducing Finland's greenhouse gas emissions. A target for reduction is set as at least 80% from the 1990 level by 2050 as part of an international effort, which requires strong RD&D in clean energ...

In this publication we developed methods to estimate the effectiveness of climate policy measures and applied the new methods to the renewable energy policies of Finland. We estimated effects of increasing the amount of produced and used forest residues, wind power, biogas and transportation biofuels on greenhouse gas emissions, employment, amount...

The study IRTORISKI investigates how the use of cost benefit analysis in climate change adaptation planning can be streamlined such as to be useful both for initial prioritisation of natural hazards according to their risk and for initial comparison of measures regarding a particular hazard, while avoiding complex model exercises. The study uses...

The paper discusses results of 2 subsequent studies on regional economic impacts of different types and severity levels of floods in urban areas. More in particular it discusses (1) the relative influence of climate change compared to other forces of change, (2) the influence of the state of the regional economy and its position in the national eco...

VTT Working Papers 141 Hankekokonaisuuden tavoitteena on selvittää ydinvoiman lisärakentamisen vaikutuksia kolmesta eri näkökulmasta: energiajärjestelmän, sähkömarkkinoiden ja kansantalouden näkökulmasta. Vaikutuksia on selvitetty jokaisella osa-alueella laskennallisin menetelmin. Suomi on osa pohjoismaista sähkömarkkinaa, joka puolestaan on kytkey...

Coping with the effects of an ageing population is among the foremost fiscal challenges in most industrialised countries. Among the European economies, Finland provides an interesting case, as the large post-war baby-boomer generations are some years older than in other European counties, and the country is thus already coping with the effects of a...

Applied general equilibrium models have become a standard tool for the analysis of structural policies in many countries and international research organisations. Their use has been prompted by both developments in economics, but also on the growing need for quantitative policy analysis. The analysis of actual policy options mandates the use of num...

In this report we present a new version of the VATTAGE AGE (Applied General Equilibrium) model, which enables distributional analysis of policy changes. We also report estimation results of LES consumption function for eight socioeconomic groups. We use climate policy as an example for the distributional effects. Our model results show that the pla...

This study evaluates the long-run effects in Finland of abatement of greenhouse gases with two applied general equilibrium models. Cutting emissions by 20 percent would cause GDP to fall by as much as 3.4 percent in the short run, leading to significant employment effects. In the long run, the labor market may recover, which shifts the burden of ad...

Venäjä on ilmoittanut nostavansa raakapuun vientitulleja asteittain 50 euroon kuutiometriltä, mikä johtaisi toteutuessaan puun tuonnin loppumiseen Venäjältä. Tutkimuksessa pyritään arvioimaan, miten suuria vaikutuksia Venäjän noin 15 miljoonan kuutiometrin suuruisen raakapuun tuonnin loppumisella olisi Suomen metsäsektoriin ja kansantalouteen pitkä...

This study deals with the matter to what extent the costs of the EU Emission Trade System (EU ETS) end up in the electricity prices. The study encompasses both a theoretical and an empirical review of electricity price formation. It includes an econometric analysis of electricity price formation and the impact of EU ETS on power prices. On the basi...

We study the Baltic Sea countries' declaration to reduce nutrient loads by 50% in each country in an ecological-economic model. The model consists of country-based abatement-cost functions, and transfer coefficients describing how phosphorus and nitrogen flow from one country to another, as estimated in a hydrological model of the Baltic Sea. We sh...

In this paper, we consider a three-stage game in the context of a competing exporters model to compare and contrast the effects of discriminatory and uniform (Most Favored Nation, MFN) tariffs on countries' choice over environmental standards for varying degrees of pollution spillovers. Because of the presence of punishment effects and stronger own...

The main point raised in the paper is that the costs of implementing the Kyoto agreement depend very much on the international environment where it is implemented. The international framework studied includes the number of countries participating in emission reduction, the extent and design of international emission trading, the size of carbon sink...

The establishment of the EU Emission Trade System (EU ETS) has intensified both the political and the economic research discourse concerning market imperfections and their implications for price formation in wholesale electricity markets, and more specifically to what extent EU ETS is exacerbating these effects. At a conceptual level it is rather s...

The European Union has committed to cutting its greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 20 per cent by the year 2020. In addition, there is a commitment to increasing the share of renewable energy within EU to 20 per cent of energy consumption, also by the year 2020. Finally, energy saving is also given a 20 per cent target by 2020. The European...

Energy taxes do not necessarily improve the cost efficiency of emission trading, if they introduce price signals that differ from those caused by trading. This article studies the use of domestic energy taxes in the trading sectors in connection with EU-wide emissions trading in Finland. The study evaluates three distinct tax scenarios that progres...

This paper presents a computable general equilibrium model of the Polish economy. The POLGEM model belongs to the well-known ORANI family of CGE-models. The paper gives an overview of the model database and highlights the innovations over the standard ORANI model that have been implemented. In particular, we introduce a distinction between imports...

This study evaluates the effects of changes in energy taxes on energy consumption between the years 1995 and 2004 using an applied, general equilibrium model for a historical simulation. During this period, Finnish energy taxation was fundamentally changed, going from an up-stream, emission and energy content-based approach to one with a mixed fuel...

The European directives on emission trade and flexible mechanisms are making new kinds of economic instruments available for the implementation of climate policies. In addition to the EU- wide trade in emission rights, governments will have the option to allow joint implementation between firms in the member countries. However, they will also have...

This paper is part of a larger study on public finance aspects of population ageing in Finland. We are using the VATTAGE model to calculate the welfare effects of various tax increases designed to improve the budgetary position of the Finnish government, that is we are calculating the marginal cost of funds (MCF) raised by different taxes. VATTAGE...

The present study aims at identifying the medium-and long term development of labour demand and the demand for skills in Finland. The study uses VATTAGE, a dynamic, applied general equilibrium model of the Finnish economy, to forecast structural changes in the Finnish economy up to the year 2025. The study is the first of its kind for a European co...

Diss -- Helsingin kauppakorkeakoulu.

In: Energy Visions 2050, 15-49

In: Energy Visions 2050, 311-372

The Future of Energy: Global Challenges, Diverse Solutions The economic effects of investing in energy efficiency in buildings in Finland was estimated. First conservation potentials in space heating for two different scenarios with different levels of investment in energy efficiency were quantified. This was done relying on statistical data and fu...