Jürgen Scheffran

University of Hamburg | UHH · Institut für Geographie (IGeogr)

The Horn of Africa region stands out amongst the planet's territories that are most volatile and vulnerable to armed violence. Conflicts have greatly affected the region over the past 50 years. The conflicts have disrupted the lives of people as well as the environment in ways that are not fully understood. Although armed conflict has generally had...

Resilience is a widely used concept among development, environmental, security and peacebuilding organizations. However, resilience has rarely been applied in conjunction with the potentially complementary concept of environmental security. Therefore, this paper explores how the concepts of resilience and environmental security can be jointly appli...

Abstract Incorporating adaptation into subsistence farming systems is an important strategy to reduce damages related to climate change and to protect livelihoods in developing countries. Also, the role of social capital in enhancing the adaptive capacity of many farming communities is highly documented in current adaptation literature. However, th...

This article applies a multi-method approach to develop a better measurement of urbanization dynamics using remote and human sensing based on a GIS platform. The results demonstrate the benefits of bringing human and remote sensing sources together in a framework of hot spot analysis for a megacity such as Mexico City. Furthermore, our analysis sug...

In response to climate change, coastal communities are expected to experience increasing coastal impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Strategies formulated and implemented to curb these impacts can thus be more effective if scientific findings on the response to climate change and SLR impacts on coastal communities are taken into consideration and not...

Die Welt sieht sich miteinander verflochtenen multiplen Krisen, Konflikten und Katastrophen gegenüber, die sich als vertrackte Probleme (wicked problems) in komplexen Krisenlandschaften verdichten. Die Probleme verstärken die Erosion der regelbasierten internationalen Weltordnung und erfordern neue Lösungspfade, ohne die Komplexität der Welt unzulä...

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is a technique for reducing the emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) while also protecting vulnerable forest ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to recognize suitable areas for REDD+ projects and calculate the reduction in CO2 emissions through the prevention of forest cover deg...

Seit dem Angriff Russlands auf die Ukraine hat sich das internationale System weiter massiv in Richtung Konfrontation verschoben. Mit der Rede von einer umfassenden »Zeitenwende« wird der Eindruck erweckt, bis dahin geltende Orientierungen der Sicherheitspolitik seien nun obsolet. Wenn die Kriegslogik die Herrschaft übernimmt, wird die Logik des Fr...

Humanity deals with several challenges in this century such as climate change, land use, and land use/cover change (LUCC). Determining the patterns, developments, and consequences of LUCC issues for the livelihoods of people, especially poor people, is very important. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the interactions between LUCC and clima...

Excessive concentration of greenhouse gases in atmosphere emitted from human activities has been considerably changing the world’s climate, especially in the last 50 years. Agriculture, as humans’ food production system, has undoubtedly interrelated with climate change (CC). During current decades, the impacts of CC on agriculture have been properl...

Modeling experts have been continually researching the interplay of human mobility and COVID-19 transmission since the outbreak of the pandemic. They tried to address this problem and support the control of the pandemic spreading at the national or regional levels. However, these modeling approaches had little success in producing empirically verif...

Climate change is thought to be having a negative impact on Africa's agricultural industry. Smallholder farmers who depend heavily on agriculture are more severely affected by climate change. Droughts and the depletion of water resources are two examples of how climate change affects production. Therefore, it is necessary to take steps to reduce th...

Today, declining soil fertility is the main biophysical constraint to improve crop yield and poses a potential threat to food security. This study aims to explore the elements that could influence the adoption of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices as well as their impact on maize yield. This study is based on a pseudopanel collec...

Lately, commentators on spaceflight raise concerns over rising militarization, possible weaponization, and space becoming a theater of war. Some see arms control regimes as the solution, while others point to the complexity of space technologies and the impossibility to create a functioning arms control regime. These concerns are usually discussed...

Kriegerische Konflikte wie der in der Ukraine verursachen nicht nur unmittelbares menschliches Leid, sondern sie verschärfen auch die Klimakrise. Beide sind in vielfacher Weise mit den Problemen des fossil-nuklearen Zeitalters verbunden. Dieses war schon lange gekennzeichnet durch Krisen und Konflikte um Kohle, Öl, Erdgas und Kernenergie. In vieler...

This study aimed to analyze the role of social capital and leadership in improving the adaptive capacity of Iranian pistachio farmers by using Social Network Analysis (SNA). The results indicate that the studied network is not a dense network, and there are few reciprocal and face-to-face relations among farmers. The findings also illustrate that i...

Beitrag zum Blog „Soziale Ökologie. Krise – Kritik – Gestaltung“ des ISOE – Institut für sozial-ökologische Forschung https://isoe.blog/zivile-konfliktbearbeitung-als-beitrag-zur-sozial-oekologischen-transformation-in-der-klimakrise/ Die komplexen Zusammenhänge zwischen Klimakrise und Konflikten machen zunehmend Schlagzeilen und zeigen sich nicht...

Forest ecosystem services (FES) are perceived and valued differently by different occupational groups. It is necessary to understand the various viewpoints and determinants, which have significant implications for forest management and biodiversity conservation. This suggests a need for diverse site-specific socio-cultural valuations of ecosystem s...

Die Menschheit greift nicht nur auf den Planeten zu, es verlangt sie auch immer wieder und immer weiter nach den Sternen. Doch im orbitalen Nahraum der Erde wird langsam der Platz eng. Eine wilde Gemengelage aus geopolitischen Interessen, privaten Satelliten, Weltraumwaffen und Weltraumschrott trifft auf eklatante Regelungslücken und eine immer kon...

How just are risk responses that worsen vulnerability in the long term? Should the urban poor be left with self-reliance when facing hazards in the Anthropocene? This research investigates urban development and vulnerability in the Anthropocene. While it is known that informal settlements face greater hazards than most urbanized areas, there are di...

Although numerous studies have examined the effects of climate variability on armed conflict, the complexity of these linkages requires deeper understanding to assess the causes and effects. Here, we assembled an extensive database of armed conflict, climate, and non-climate data for South Asia. We used structural equation modeling to quantify both...

Die Klimakrise ist eine Vielfachkrise. Sie zerstört nicht nur unsere Ökosysteme, sondern fordert auch unsere Wirtschaft, Politik, Werte und Psyche in gewaltigem Maße heraus. »Das historische Unterfangen der Moderne ist abgedriftet, hat Freiheitsversprechungen kultiviert, die einem ungedeckten Scheck gleichen, weil ihnen jede materielle Basis fehlt...

Mehr als 100 Millionen Menschen sind weltweit auf der Flucht. Jede Flucht hat ihren Grund. Fluchtursachen, nicht Flüchtlinge müssen bekämpft werden. Wofür sind wir mit unserem Wirtschaftssystem und unserem Lebensstil verantwortlich? Und wozu verpflichtet uns diese Verantwortung? Diesen Fragen geht das Buch nach und macht Vorschläge zur Bekämpfung d...

Abstract: In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the website ‘Humanitarian Disarmament’ issued an Open Letter calling for the reallocation of military spending to humanitarian causes. Soon, over 260 actors from a variety of policy areas collectively supported a common goal: peace and disarmament as a pathway to health. While disarmament has original...

Coastal zones are experiencing rapid urbanization at unprecedented rates. At the same time, coastal cities are the most prone to climate-related vulnerability, including impacts of sea-level rise and climate-related coastal hazards under the present and projected future climate. Decision making about coastal urban climate adaptation can be informed...

Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere. Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors...

The links between climate change and conflict are manifold and gaining increasing attention in policy and research. However, the link between sustainable peace and climate justice has been widely overlooked. This article addresses this gap conceptually and shows that civil conflict transformation offers effective means to address the climate crisis...

Dass Russland einen völkerrechtswidrigen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine führt, ist unbestreitbar. Fraglich ist, wie dem zu begegnen ist. Geopolitik scheint das Mittel der Stunde zu sein, eine friedenslogische Antwort dagegen wird weitgehend ausgeblendet. Doch geopolitische Strategien fördern Rivalitäten und gefährden die Zukunft des Planeten. Es b...

The migration of people poses many challenges but also opportunities and has strong implications for the success and delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Conversely, the 2030 Agenda constitutes a vital opportunity to improve migrants’ lives. This Voices asks: how should migration be integrated into, and actioned within, the SDG fra...

Wir leben in einer Welt im Umbruch, auch als Epochenwandel und Zeitenwende beschrieben, in der das Alte an Einfluss verliert und das Neue sich noch nicht etabliert hat. Einige dieser Wendepunkte sind die Krisen, Konflikte und Katastrophen in Folge der von Europa ausgehenden Jahrhunderte langen Expansion. Diese Expansion führt auch zum Überschreiten...

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil provided one of the most severe examples of its impacts on health and society. The country had death rates above the global average and acute impacts in increased unemployment, poverty, and threats to food security marked along ethnic and social lines. This study asks how different degrees of vulner...

Climate change adaptation (CCA) evolved in the global policy framework in the early 1990s. However, it began to flourish about a decade later through a subsequent development of institutions, policies and supporting financial mechanisms. Various adaptation approaches and development practices have been evolving over the last couple of decades throu...

The present study aims to compare the performance of artificial neural networks (ANN), statistical methods, and machine learning in predicting the location of landslides in Marivan and Sarvabad cities in Kurdistan province of Iran. 16 factors influencing landslide occurrence are first chosen, such as aspect and elevation, plan curvature and profile...

Français: Dans la quête de la sécurité planétaire comme réponse aux défis de l’Anthropocène, nous contribuons à rapprocher la théorie et la pratique par le biais d’une évaluation critique de la Planetary Security Initiative – l’Initiative pour la sécurité planétaire (PSI), un consortium d’experts composé de cinq instituts. La PSI vise à améliorer l...

The ecological sustainability of cultivated land use is a major challenge for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. However, less attention has been paid to the ecological sustainability of cultivated land use (CLU) from the perspective of the functional transition of cultivated ecosystems (FTCE). Moreover, knowledge about the underlying mec...

Understanding the risk of armed conflict is essential for promoting peace. Although the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict has been studied by the research community for decades with quantitative and qualitative methods at different spatial and temporal scales, causal linkages at a global scale remain poorly understood. Her...

Across the world, policies and measures are being developed and implemented to reduce the risks of climate change and adapt to its current and projected adverse effects. The Paris Agreement established the global stocktake to evaluate the collective progress made on adaptation. Nevertheless, various challenges still exist when evaluating adaptation...

1) Cooperative regional mechanisms and multi-stakeholder dialogue; adoption of local cross-border perspectives. 2) Strengthening resilience of vulnerable communities. 3) Monitoring and assessment of climate disaster risks in mountainous regions. 4) Fast response mechanisms and disaster simulation drills. 5) Investment in research on climate adapt...

Kriegerische Konflikte wie der in der Ukraine verursachen nicht nur unmittelbares menschliches Leid, sondern sie verschärfen auch die Klimakrise. Beide sind in vielfacher Weise mit den Problemen des fossil-nuklearen Zeitalters verbunden. Dieses war schon lange gekennzeichnet durch Krisen und Konflikte um Kohle, Öl, Erdgas und Kernenergie. In vieler...

This discussion paper focuses on building the necessary framework to achieve and maintain a world without nuclear weapons. The paper: a) Explores the legal, technical and institutional measures and framework to facilitate the elimination of nuclear weapons, including to implement objectives of disarmament (stockpile reduction and destruction), veri...

China announced a target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. As one of the most promising pathways to minimize carbon emissions, the low-carbon electricity supply is of high consideration in China’s future energy planning. The main purpose of this study is to provide a comparative overview of the regional siting potential of various low-carbon...

Die natürlichen Lebensgrundlagen der Menschheit werden durch Klimawandel und Umweltzerstörung bedroht, die friedensgefährdende Ökozide mit sich bringen können. Seit fünf Jahrzehnten gibt es Bestrebungen, schwerwiegende Umweltverbrechen im Rahmen des Völkerrechts zu regulieren. Im Kontext der jüngsten Debatte über Klimaklagen und die Rechte der Natu...

Climate-related disasters (CRDs) and hazards such as droughts, floods, and storms are the main patterns of natural events in long-term weather cycles which are potentially affected by climate change. Unsustainable use of land has contributed to the increase of vulnerability to natural disasters. Disasters and land use change have become major conce...

A rational assessment of electricity generation technologies constitutes a cornerstone to attain a sustainable and secure electricity plan. The Egyptian government is struggling with the accelerated growth of the national electricity demand through setting up and examining different future electricity scenarios and through the implementation of ene...

Stocking rate and rangeland area are key variables to provide the livelihood of herders in different climatic zones. To evaluate the economic and ecological management of pastoral units, this study aims to determine the optimal economic size of pastoral units for livestock grazing use considering the ecological capacity of semi-arid rangelands in d...

The Earth system and the human system are intrinsically linked. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to the climate crisis, which is causing unprecedented extreme events and could trigger Earth system tipping elements. Physical and social forces can lead to tipping points and cascading effects via feedbacks and telecoupling, but the curr...

Global warming affects human security and social stability through multiple pathways (e.g., ecosystems, natural resources, weather extremes, sea level, water, food). Research has identified conditions and mechanisms that influence the climate–security–conflict nexus, often finding significant linkages between climate and conflict variables. Other s...

This study is designed to investigate farmers' intentions to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices in response to climate change. This study particularly takes into consideration the psychological factors to assess adaptation intentions of farmers. Data were collected from 256 farmers from high attitude farming regions of Pakistan and Nepal us...

The current study aimed at identifying the problems and challenges facing the resilience of landslide areas using the strategic approach of futures studies (futurology) and its scenarios. Methodologically, this study is novel as it applied the mixed-method (qualitative-quantitative) analysis based on the futures studies approach to explore the effi...

Dieser Beitrag beleuchtet aus geographischer Perspektive das Ausmaß von Migration, Flucht und Vertreibung in der globalisierten Welt sowie das Problemgeflecht aus sozialen, ökonomischen, ökologischen und politischen Ursachen und Folgen. Diskutiert werden Konzepte und Alternativen, um die Ursachen und Folgen abzuschwächen.

Der Sieg der liberalen Weltordnung im Kalten Krieg weckte Erwartungen, der Westen könne die Weltprobleme lösen, von Menschenrechten über Regimewechsel bis zur Friedensdividende. Die Chancen wurden verpasst, weil der Westen seine Expansion fortsetzte und eigene Werte durch Militärinterventionen, Globalisierung, technologische Dynamik, soziale Spaltu...

Desertifikation wird beeinflusst durch Klimaschwankungen, Wasserverfügbarkeit, Bodenverluste sowie menschliche Aktivitäten wie Landbewirtschaftung, Entwaldung, Überweidung, Bevölkerungs- und Einkommenswachstum. Dies hat Auswirkungen auf Wasser und Land, Ökosysteme, Biodiversität und die Nahrungskette. Daraus folgen sozioökonomische Belastungen wie...

In recent decades, rapid economic growth and urbanization have driven significant livelihood transitions in rural China, which raised diverse climate and environmental impacts. This study investigated the impacts of such livelihood transitions on rural households’ carbon footprint at the Three Gorges Reservoir area in West China during the period o...

The development of space law did not keep up with the rapid and complex challenges in outer space, which requires new regulations adapted to governmental and private needs at national, regional and international governance levels. Space law has been and continues to be shaped by technological advances as well as economic, political and military asp...

Das Verhältnis zwischen Mensch und Natur erlebt eine dra­matische Umwälzung. Wurde Natur zunächst als Bedrohung durch Naturgewalten und Quelle von Ressourcen erfahren, entwickelte sie sich zum scheinbar unerschöpflichen Reser­voir für ihre technisch-industrielle Ausbeutung und wird nun als verletzlich und zerstörbar erfahren, als kostbares Gut, das...

Diskussionspapier für die Studiengruppe Europäische Sicherheit und Frieden der Vereinigung Deutscher Wissenschaftler (VDW)

Lifting water is crucial to irrigate agricultural terraces in the Mediterranean region. But the energy demand and emissions of modern forms of water pumping have increased, while many traditional water wheels, which lift water at zero direct emissions, have been abandoned. We explored the state of preservation and the potential for the deployment o...

The chapter provides a comprehensive overview of recent scholarly research into the nexus between climate change, environmental security and armed conflict, with a particular emphasis on the Mediterranean region and the role of key international organisations involved in this area. The chapter takes stock of the multiple climate vulnerability risks...

India’s monsoon dependent agriculture is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and inadequate policies contribute to socio-economic difficulties in farming communities. Many current policies and strategies to combat climate change impacts are focused on technical aspects of adaptations whereas little research is done to understand the...

Many countries have agreed to eliminate biological and chemical weapons in the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), pledged in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to forgo or eliminate nuclear weapons and have agreed in the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) to establish a legal framework to...

With the proliferation of missiles and satellites, the threat to outer space is increasing and space is becoming a province of warfare and of an arms race. A question is whether the transition from the militarization to the weaponization of space can be prevented, opening the “high frontier” for “space warfare”.\\ There have been many attempts in...

The ‘weaponisation’ of space is often interpreted to mean the placement or use of weapons in orbit around the Earth. Although at present there may be no actual weapons stationed in space, there are components of weapons (tracking, monitoring and targeting satellites) and many other military-related systems positioned there. The military of many sta...

On November 20, 2000, the U.N. General Assembly, by a vote of 97 to 0 with 65 abstentions, adopted a resolution demanding a comprehensive approach to missiles that would “contribute to international peace and security.” The resolution gave impetus to civil society to take up the issue. One such initiative was a project by the International Network...

In this study, we aim to analyze social networks in which internally displaced persons (IDPs) are involved in northeast Nigeria, after they have been displaced by the insurgency of the Boko Haram group. While IDPs usually resettle in camps operated by the government, contacts with host communities are common. We further analyze the potential that s...

Smallholder farmers are the most vulnerable community to climate change in Ethiopia since they rely heavily on the subsistence rain-fed farming system. Thus, better climate change adaptation strategies need to be identified and implemented. This study aimed at identifying the farmers’ perceptions of climate change and time series trend analysis of...

Crop diversity is crucial for sustainable farmland ecosystems and global sustainability, and thus is a popular subject of research in ecological economics, agricultural science, and geography. Many studies have revealed the individual impacts of government policies or market changes on crop diversity. However, research on the combined effects of bo...

Sea level rise and high-impact coastal hazards due to on-going and projected climate change dramatically affect many coastal urban areas worldwide, including those with the highest urbanization growth rates. To develop tailored coastal climate services that can inform decision makers on climate adaptation in coastal cities, a better understanding a...

Verglichen mit der Situation vor 40 Jahren hat sich die naturwissenschaftliche Friedenslehre geändert. Stand zunächst die Verflechtung von Naturwissenschaft und Krieg im Vordergrund, so wurde zunehmend naturwissenschaftlich-technisches Wissen genutzt, um rüstungsbezogene Fragen zu analysieren und friedenspolitische Alternativen zu entwickeln. Auf G...

Im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2021 veröffentlichen IPPNW und ICAN Deutschland die Publikation "Impulse für ein atomwaffenfreies Deutschland: Nukleare Teilhabe beenden, nukleare Abschreckung delegitimieren". 15 Autor*innen aus der Zivilgesellschaft geben darin Denkanstöße für eine Debatte zum Ende der nuklearen Abschreckung. Die Bundestagswahl biete...

By the 2050s, more than 120 million people are predicted to settle in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), which covers large coastal cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Cities in the PRD are vitally important to China in relation to their socio-economic contributions. From recent evidence, this strongly urbanized area is vulnerable to, and c...

International climate politics have substantially evolved in the past decades and are no longer confined to international negotiations and governmental action. Transnational initiatives refer to new forms of climate governance that cut across traditional state-based jurisdictions and operate across public and private divides. They encompass a wide...

UN climate governance, as we understand it here, comprises state-led cooperation within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the wider climate change regime complex. (1) Despite a poor historic track record, UN climate governance gained new momentum since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. The Paris Agreement is the...

This paper presents the development of a life-cycle assessment (LCA) framework for quantifying the carbon footprint of individual households based on detailed household survey data. According to household consumption and production patterns, the comprehensive life-cycle assessment framework is designed with clarified life- cycle boundaries. The fra...

Energy plays an important role in our life, constituting one of the major vital needs of human beings and affecting all aspects of the development of our life. Until recently, electricity, the most widely used form of energy, represents an attractive field of research and development to many researchers in order to compromise between the efficiency...

A disaster resilience index aggregates numerous observed individual indicators into a numeric value, for the purpose of gauging various communities’ disparate disaster resilience capacities as part of decision-making in resilience management. There have been abundant studies on the creation of such indices, but only a few have sought to empirically...

The Lake Chad region is facing a nexus of interconnected problems including fragility, violent conflict, forced displacement, and scarcity of water and other resources, further aggravated by climate change. Focusing on northeast Nigeria, this study aims to answer the following questions: (1) What role does access to water and farming play in out-mi...