Jürgen Scheffran

Jürgen Scheffran
University of Hamburg | UHH · Institut für Geographie (IGeogr)

Prof. Dr.

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719
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209,177
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7,840
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August 2009 - present
University of Hamburg
Position
  • Professor (Full)

Publications

Publications (719)
Article
The Horn of Africa region stands out amongst the planet's territories that are most volatile and vulnerable to armed violence. Conflicts have greatly affected the region over the past 50 years. The conflicts have disrupted the lives of people as well as the environment in ways that are not fully understood. Although armed conflict has generally had...
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Resilience is a widely used concept among development, environmental, security and peacebuilding organizations. However, resilience has rarely been applied in conjunction with the potentially complementary concept of environmental security. Therefore, this paper explores how the concepts of resilience and environmental security can be jointly appli...
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Abstract Incorporating adaptation into subsistence farming systems is an important strategy to reduce damages related to climate change and to protect livelihoods in developing countries. Also, the role of social capital in enhancing the adaptive capacity of many farming communities is highly documented in current adaptation literature. However, th...
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This article applies a multi-method approach to develop a better measurement of urbanization dynamics using remote and human sensing based on a GIS platform. The results demonstrate the benefits of bringing human and remote sensing sources together in a framework of hot spot analysis for a megacity such as Mexico City. Furthermore, our analysis sug...
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In response to climate change, coastal communities are expected to experience increasing coastal impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Strategies formulated and implemented to curb these impacts can thus be more effective if scientific findings on the response to climate change and SLR impacts on coastal communities are taken into consideration and not...
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Wir leben in einer Welt im Umbruch, auch als Epochenwandel und Zeitenwende beschrieben, in der das Alte an Einfluss verliert und das Neue sich noch nicht etabliert hat. Einige dieser Wendepunkte sind die Krisen, Konflikte und Katastrophen in Folge der von Europa ausgehenden Jahrhunderte langen Expansion. Diese Expansion führt auch zum Überschreiten...
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The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil provided one of the most severe examples of its impacts on health and society. The country had death rates above the global average and acute impacts in increased unemployment, poverty, and threats to food security marked along ethnic and social lines. This study asks how different degrees of vulner...
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Climate change adaptation (CCA) evolved in the global policy framework in the early 1990s. However, it began to flourish about a decade later through a subsequent development of institutions, policies and supporting financial mechanisms. Various adaptation approaches and development practices have been evolving over the last couple of decades throu...
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The present study aims to compare the performance of artificial neural networks (ANN), statistical methods, and machine learning in predicting the location of landslides in Marivan and Sarvabad cities in Kurdistan province of Iran. 16 factors influencing landslide occurrence are first chosen, such as aspect and elevation, plan curvature and profile...
Article
Français: Dans la quête de la sécurité planétaire comme réponse aux défis de l’Anthropocène, nous contribuons à rapprocher la théorie et la pratique par le biais d’une évaluation critique de la Planetary Security Initiative – l’Initiative pour la sécurité planétaire (PSI), un consortium d’experts composé de cinq instituts. La PSI vise à améliorer l...
Article
The ecological sustainability of cultivated land use is a major challenge for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. However, less attention has been paid to the ecological sustainability of cultivated land use (CLU) from the perspective of the functional transition of cultivated ecosystems (FTCE). Moreover, knowledge about the underlying mec...
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Understanding the risk of armed conflict is essential for promoting peace. Although the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict has been studied by the research community for decades with quantitative and qualitative methods at different spatial and temporal scales, causal linkages at a global scale remain poorly understood. Her...
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Across the world, policies and measures are being developed and implemented to reduce the risks of climate change and adapt to its current and projected adverse effects. The Paris Agreement established the global stocktake to evaluate the collective progress made on adaptation. Nevertheless, various challenges still exist when evaluating adaptation...
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Kriegerische Konflikte wie der in der Ukraine verursachen nicht nur unmittelbares menschliches Leid, sondern sie verschärfen auch die Klimakrise. Beide sind in vielfacher Weise mit den Problemen des fossil-nuklearen Zeitalters verbunden. Dieses war schon lange gekennzeichnet durch Krisen und Konflikte um Kohle, Öl, Erdgas und Kernenergie. In vieler...
Technical Report
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This discussion paper focuses on building the necessary framework to achieve and maintain a world without nuclear weapons. The paper: a) Explores the legal, technical and institutional measures and framework to facilitate the elimination of nuclear weapons, including to implement objectives of disarmament (stockpile reduction and destruction), veri...
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China announced a target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. As one of the most promising pathways to minimize carbon emissions, the low-carbon electricity supply is of high consideration in China’s future energy planning. The main purpose of this study is to provide a comparative overview of the regional siting potential of various low-carbon...
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Die natürlichen Lebensgrundlagen der Menschheit werden durch Klimawandel und Umweltzerstörung bedroht, die friedensgefährdende Ökozide mit sich bringen können. Seit fünf Jahrzehnten gibt es Bestrebungen, schwerwiegende Umweltverbrechen im Rahmen des Völkerrechts zu regulieren. Im Kontext der jüngsten Debatte über Klimaklagen und die Rechte der Natu...
Article
Climate-related disasters (CRDs) and hazards such as droughts, floods, and storms are the main patterns of natural events in long-term weather cycles which are potentially affected by climate change. Unsustainable use of land has contributed to the increase of vulnerability to natural disasters. Disasters and land use change have become major conce...
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A rational assessment of electricity generation technologies constitutes a cornerstone to attain a sustainable and secure electricity plan. The Egyptian government is struggling with the accelerated growth of the national electricity demand through setting up and examining different future electricity scenarios and through the implementation of ene...
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Stocking rate and rangeland area are key variables to provide the livelihood of herders in different climatic zones. To evaluate the economic and ecological management of pastoral units, this study aims to determine the optimal economic size of pastoral units for livestock grazing use considering the ecological capacity of semi-arid rangelands in d...
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The Earth system and the human system are intrinsically linked. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to the climate crisis, which is causing unprecedented extreme events and could trigger Earth system tipping elements. Physical and social forces can lead to tipping points and cascading effects via feedbacks and telecoupling, but the curr...
Chapter
Global warming affects human security and social stability through multiple pathways (e.g., ecosystems, natural resources, weather extremes, sea level, water, food). Research has identified conditions and mechanisms that influence the climate–security–conflict nexus, often finding significant linkages between climate and conflict variables. Other s...
Article
This study is designed to investigate farmers' intentions to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices in response to climate change. This study particularly takes into consideration the psychological factors to assess adaptation intentions of farmers. Data were collected from 256 farmers from high attitude farming regions of Pakistan and Nepal us...
Article
The current study aimed at identifying the problems and challenges facing the resilience of landslide areas using the strategic approach of futures studies (futurology) and its scenarios. Methodologically, this study is novel as it applied the mixed-method (qualitative-quantitative) analysis based on the futures studies approach to explore the effi...
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Dieser Beitrag beleuchtet aus geographischer Perspektive das Ausmaß von Migration, Flucht und Vertreibung in der globalisierten Welt sowie das Problemgeflecht aus sozialen, ökonomischen, ökologischen und politischen Ursachen und Folgen. Diskutiert werden Konzepte und Alternativen, um die Ursachen und Folgen abzuschwächen.
Article
Der Sieg der liberalen Weltordnung im Kalten Krieg weckte Erwartungen, der Westen könne die Weltprobleme lösen, von Menschenrechten über Regimewechsel bis zur Friedensdividende. Die Chancen wurden verpasst, weil der Westen seine Expansion fortsetzte und eigene Werte durch Militärinterventionen, Globalisierung, technologische Dynamik, soziale Spaltu...
Chapter
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Desertifikation wird beeinflusst durch Klimaschwankungen, Wasserverfügbarkeit, Bodenverluste sowie menschliche Aktivitäten wie Landbewirtschaftung, Entwaldung, Überweidung, Bevölkerungs- und Einkommenswachstum. Dies hat Auswirkungen auf Wasser und Land, Ökosysteme, Biodiversität und die Nahrungskette. Daraus folgen sozioökonomische Belastungen wie...
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This paper explores the advantages of simulation to raise the question of how digital and social networks affect the mobility in a pastoralist artificial society in the context of environmental degradation. We aim to explore mechanisms and develop scenarios, which are going to be validated through further research. We use a model of a simple pastor...
Article
In recent decades, rapid economic growth and urbanization have driven significant livelihood transitions in rural China, which raised diverse climate and environmental impacts. This study investigated the impacts of such livelihood transitions on rural households’ carbon footprint at the Three Gorges Reservoir area in West China during the period o...
Chapter
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The development of space law did not keep up with the rapid and complex challenges in outer space, which requires new regulations adapted to governmental and private needs at national, regional and international governance levels. Space law has been and continues to be shaped by technological advances as well as economic, political and military asp...
Chapter
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Das Verhältnis zwischen Mensch und Natur erlebt eine dra­matische Umwälzung. Wurde Natur zunächst als Bedrohung durch Naturgewalten und Quelle von Ressourcen erfahren, entwickelte sie sich zum scheinbar unerschöpflichen Reser­voir für ihre technisch-industrielle Ausbeutung und wird nun als verletzlich und zerstörbar erfahren, als kostbares Gut, das...
Technical Report
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Diskussionspapier für die Studiengruppe Europäische Sicherheit und Frieden der Vereinigung Deutscher Wissenschaftler (VDW)
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Lifting water is crucial to irrigate agricultural terraces in the Mediterranean region. But the energy demand and emissions of modern forms of water pumping have increased, while many traditional water wheels, which lift water at zero direct emissions, have been abandoned. We explored the state of preservation and the potential for the deployment o...
Chapter
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The chapter provides a comprehensive overview of recent scholarly research into the nexus between climate change, environmental security and armed conflict, with a particular emphasis on the Mediterranean region and the role of key international organisations involved in this area. The chapter takes stock of the multiple climate vulnerability risks...
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India’s monsoon dependent agriculture is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and inadequate policies contribute to socio-economic difficulties in farming communities. Many current policies and strategies to combat climate change impacts are focused on technical aspects of adaptations whereas little research is done to understand the...
Chapter
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Many countries have agreed to eliminate biological and chemical weapons in the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), pledged in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to forgo or eliminate nuclear weapons and have agreed in the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) to establish a legal framework to...
Chapter
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With the proliferation of missiles and satellites, the threat to outer space is increasing and space is becoming a province of warfare and of an arms race. A question is whether the transition from the militarization to the weaponization of space can be prevented, opening the “high frontier” for “space warfare”.\\ There have been many attempts in...
Chapter
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The ‘weaponisation’ of space is often interpreted to mean the placement or use of weapons in orbit around the Earth. Although at present there may be no actual weapons stationed in space, there are components of weapons (tracking, monitoring and targeting satellites) and many other military-related systems positioned there. The military of many sta...
Book
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On November 20, 2000, the U.N. General Assembly, by a vote of 97 to 0 with 65 abstentions, adopted a resolution demanding a comprehensive approach to missiles that would “contribute to international peace and security.” The resolution gave impetus to civil society to take up the issue. One such initiative was a project by the International Network...
Article
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In this study, we aim to analyze social networks in which internally displaced persons (IDPs) are involved in northeast Nigeria, after they have been displaced by the insurgency of the Boko Haram group. While IDPs usually resettle in camps operated by the government, contacts with host communities are common. We further analyze the potential that s...
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Smallholder farmers are the most vulnerable community to climate change in Ethiopia since they rely heavily on the subsistence rain-fed farming system. Thus, better climate change adaptation strategies need to be identified and implemented. This study aimed at identifying the farmers’ perceptions of climate change and time series trend analysis of...
Article
Crop diversity is crucial for sustainable farmland ecosystems and global sustainability, and thus is a popular subject of research in ecological economics, agricultural science, and geography. Many studies have revealed the individual impacts of government policies or market changes on crop diversity. However, research on the combined effects of bo...
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Sea level rise and high-impact coastal hazards due to on-going and projected climate change dramatically affect many coastal urban areas worldwide, including those with the highest urbanization growth rates. To develop tailored coastal climate services that can inform decision makers on climate adaptation in coastal cities, a better understanding a...
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Verglichen mit der Situation vor 40 Jahren hat sich die naturwissenschaftliche Friedenslehre geändert. Stand zunächst die Verflechtung von Naturwissenschaft und Krieg im Vordergrund, so wurde zunehmend naturwissenschaftlich-technisches Wissen genutzt, um rüstungsbezogene Fragen zu analysieren und friedenspolitische Alternativen zu entwickeln. Auf G...
Technical Report
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Im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2021 veröffentlichen IPPNW und ICAN Deutschland die Publikation "Impulse für ein atomwaffenfreies Deutschland: Nukleare Teilhabe beenden, nukleare Abschreckung delegitimieren". 15 Autor*innen aus der Zivilgesellschaft geben darin Denkanstöße für eine Debatte zum Ende der nuklearen Abschreckung. Die Bundestagswahl biete...
Article
By the 2050s, more than 120 million people are predicted to settle in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), which covers large coastal cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Cities in the PRD are vitally important to China in relation to their socio-economic contributions. From recent evidence, this strongly urbanized area is vulnerable to, and c...
Chapter
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International climate politics have substantially evolved in the past decades and are no longer confined to international negotiations and governmental action. Transnational initiatives refer to new forms of climate governance that cut across traditional state-based jurisdictions and operate across public and private divides. They encompass a wide...
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UN climate governance, as we understand it here, comprises state-led cooperation within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the wider climate change regime complex. (1) Despite a poor historic track record, UN climate governance gained new momentum since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. The Paris Agreement is the...
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This paper presents the development of a life-cycle assessment (LCA) framework for quantifying the carbon footprint of individual households based on detailed household survey data. According to household consumption and production patterns, the comprehensive life-cycle assessment framework is designed with clarified life- cycle boundaries. The fra...
Chapter
Energy plays an important role in our life, constituting one of the major vital needs of human beings and affecting all aspects of the development of our life. Until recently, electricity, the most widely used form of energy, represents an attractive field of research and development to many researchers in order to compromise between the efficiency...
Article
A disaster resilience index aggregates numerous observed individual indicators into a numeric value, for the purpose of gauging various communities’ disparate disaster resilience capacities as part of decision-making in resilience management. There have been abundant studies on the creation of such indices, but only a few have sought to empirically...
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The Lake Chad region is facing a nexus of interconnected problems including fragility, violent conflict, forced displacement, and scarcity of water and other resources, further aggravated by climate change. Focusing on northeast Nigeria, this study aims to answer the following questions: (1) What role does access to water and farming play in out-mi...
Article
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The fast and broad adoption of mechanization and chemical inputs in Mediterranean terraced agriculture, combined with warming climate trends, has led to the progressive degradation of environmental and social conditions. These factors have concurred with the increasing abandonment of smallholder agriculture. We aimed to detect and quantify the prog...
Technical Report
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Wie beeinflusst die Corona-Pandemie die Aussichten für Frieden und Sicherheit in Europa? Einige Trends zeichnen sich bereits ab. Sie betreffen die Rahmenbedingungen der traditionellen Sicherheitspolitik mit ihren diplomatischen und militärischen Mitteln. Das Ausmaß der Veränderungen ist allerdings noch offen. --Die Vorbereitungen auf ein breiteres...
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GERMAN SUMMARY (English Summary further below): Die Zeit drängt. Ohne schnell wirksame Gegenmaßnahmen werden Erderhitzung und Biodiversitätsverlust Ausmaße annehmen, welche die Lebensweise von Menschen nicht abschätzbaren Risiken aussetzen. Obwohl die Herausforderungen weiten Teilen der Bevölkerung bewusst sind, werden dringend nötige Entscheidung...
Article
Agricultural land fragmentation (ALF) is one of the main challenges of developing countries including Iran. ALF could affect agricultural production, rural development, labor supply, food security, and land use change. Therefore, ALF management should be one of the main components of the land policy and decision-making systems regarding agricultura...
Article
The dynamics of urban population density (UPD) has attracted extensive attention from both policymakers and scholars because it can be used to indicate the sustainability of city growth. Substantial research considering urban areas as whole units has demonstrated a close relationship between urban land expansion and demographic urbanization. Howeve...
Chapter
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With fast growing human populations over the past decades, access to land has become an increasingly pressing issue. This is the case in urban as well as in rural spaces, and across both emergent and established economies. In this context, the management of land use and land ownerships, formal as well as informal, is of primary importance. Specific...
Article
Sustainable entrepreneurship is a strategy for development, growth, and prosperity that has received the attention of researchers, especially in the fields of economic development and rural businesses. The present study aims to identify the sustainable entrepreneurship indicators in Iranian rural businesses using the Fuzzy Delphi method. The result...
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Seit Beginn der Industrialisierung und der Entstehung des fossilen Kapitalismus wird über mögliche Grenzen des Wachstums und ihre destruktiven Folgen diskutiert, auch für Krieg und Frieden. Die gewaltförmige Ausbeutung von Mensch und Natur und damit verbundene Kämpfe um Land und andere Ressourcen erreichte im 20. Jahrhundert einen Höhepunkt. Die in...
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Historical irrigated agricultural systems in Mediterranean regions provide a long record of sustainability and adaptation to changing climatic, environmental, and social conditions. These agricultural systems are currently confronted with chal- lenges that may threaten their persistence over the next decades. Here, we propose a first assessment of...
Book
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Research on security-related aspects of climate change is an important element of climate change impact assessments. Hamburg has become a globally recognized center of pertinent analysis of the climate-conflict-nexus. The essays in this collection present a sample of the research conducted from 2009 to 2018 within an interdisciplinary cooperation o...
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The role of global warming as a risk multiplier is discussed in an integrative framework connecting climate and societal stability, acting through complex and destabilizing impact chains beyond thresholds. These include complex social interactions and self-enforcing collective dynamics such as breakdown of vulnerable infrastructures and networks; t...
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The informal understanding of the Anthropocene has sparked a significant world- wide debate across disciplines, including cultural studies, arts, literature, philos- ophy, law, sociology, political science, and international relations. Beyond its ge- ological and chronological formalization, the Anthropocene is being discussed as a “new planetary r...
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Geopolitische Konflikte im fossil-nuklearen Zeitalter haben das vergangene Jahrhundert bestimmt und prägen auch das 21. Jahrhundert. Mit dem Ende des fossilen Kapitalismus nehmen Krisen zu. Die Alternative »Krieg um Öl« oder »Frieden durch Sonne« betrifft neben dem Wandel der Energieversorgung auch einen Systemwandel. Erneuerbare Energien gelten al...
Chapter
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Historically, the Mediterranean region has been a hotspot of geopolitical conflicts. Since ancient times, its unique geographical landscape at the intersection of three continents has connected and separated the spheres of influence of major powers in Europe, Africa and Asia. Its civilizations became models for hegemonic power projections elsewhere...
Chapter
Das Anthropozän bringt eine »große Beschleunigung« gesellschaftlicher Entwicklung, die an planetare Grenzen stößt. Im Spannungsverhältnis von Natur und Gesellschaft entstehen Krisen, aber auch Bestrebungen durch nachhaltige Entwicklung eine Transformation von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft im Rahmen der Natur zu ermöglichen. Dabei geht es auch um die...
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Wissenschaftliche Forschung hat zu der Erkenntnis geführt, dass das globale Klima sich rasch erwärmt, verursacht durch die menschliche Produktions- und Lebensweise. In der Auseinandersetzung mit der Problematik des Klimawandels nehmen viele WissenschaftlerInnen ihre gesellschaftliche Verantwortung wahr, dies belegt nicht zuletzt die Aktivierung tau...
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For almost two decades, the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) in general and northeast Nigeria in particular have been subject to the insurgency of the Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram. This region is also known for its poor environmental conditions that mostly manifest in land desertification and water scarcity. We analyze the impact of the insecurity and...
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Die beschleunigte Globalisierung schafft Reichtum für eine wachsende Erdbevölkerung, stößt aber an planetare Grenzen, die zu Krisensymptomen in Natur und Gesellschaft führen. Durch das absehbare Ende des fossilen Kapitalismus, Machtverschiebungen im Nord-Süd-Verhältnis und den Einfluss von sozialen Netzwerken erfährt die neoliberale Weltordnung Auf...
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Die heutigen knapp 7,8 Milliarden Menschen überziehen die ökologische Leistungsfähigkeit der Erde um etwa die Hälfte. Zugleich wird die Bewohnbarkeit unserer Erde weniger durch das fortwährende Bevölkerungswachstum reduziert, sondern vielmehr wegen der Ideologie des ständigen Wirtschaftswachstums sowie der Krisenerscheinungen und Kämpfe von Nationa...
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Global warming poses serious risks to the environment, communities, and international peace and security. Significant concerns have been raised that, in the case of climate policy failures, the world may enter a Warming War, threatening the future viability of the planet and its life-sustaining ecosystems. While the regime of treaties and agreement...
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As hydro-meteorological hazards are predicted to become more frequent and intense in the future, scholars and policymakers are increasingly concerned about their security implications, especially in the context of ongoing climate change. Our study contributes to this debate by analysing the pathways to water-related conflict onset under drought con...