Jürgen Scheffran

Hamburg University | UHH · Institut für Geographie (IGeogr)

The Horn of Africa region stands out amongst the planet's territories that are most volatile and vulnerable to armed violence. Conflicts have greatly affected the region over the past 50 years. The conflicts have disrupted the lives of people as well as the environment in ways that are not fully understood. Although armed conflict has generally had...

Resilience is a widely used concept among development, environmental, security and peacebuilding organizations. However, resilience has rarely been applied in conjunction with the potentially complementary concept of environmental security. Therefore, this paper explores how the concepts of resilience and environmental security can be jointly appli...

Abstract Incorporating adaptation into subsistence farming systems is an important strategy to reduce damages related to climate change and to protect livelihoods in developing countries. Also, the role of social capital in enhancing the adaptive capacity of many farming communities is highly documented in current adaptation literature. However, th...

This article applies a multi-method approach to develop a better measurement of urbanization dynamics using remote and human sensing based on a GIS platform. The results demonstrate the benefits of bringing human and remote sensing sources together in a framework of hot spot analysis for a megacity such as Mexico City. Furthermore, our analysis sug...

In response to climate change, coastal communities are expected to experience increasing coastal impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Strategies formulated and implemented to curb these impacts can thus be more effective if scientific findings on the response to climate change and SLR impacts on coastal communities are taken into consideration and not...

Vor etwas mehr als einem Jahr überfielen bewaffnete Kräfte der Hamas und weiterer radikaler Organisationen aus Gaza heraus grenznahe zivile Siedlungen und militärische Wachposten im Staat Israel und töteten dabei über 1.100 Menschen. Hier beginnt eine Erzählung der Eskalationen im Nahen Osten – für andere ist sie das zu kontextualisierende Ergebnis...

Die politischen Krisen im Nahen Osten werden von der Frage überlagert, wie mit den Bedürfnissen und Unsicherheiten, die sich aus dem rasch fortschreitenden Klimawandel ergeben, angemessen umgegangen werden kann. Da die meisten infrastrukturellen Umsetzungen und Entscheidungen zu ökologischen Fragen auch in politische Konflikte eingebettet sind, ist...

The potential impacts of climate change on violent conflict are high on the agenda of scholars and policy makers. This article reviews existing literature to clarify the relationship between climate change and conflict risk, focusing on the roles of temperature and precipitation. While some debate remains, substantial evidence shows that climate ch...

In dieser Studie werden die Potenziale von Environmental Peacebuilding diskutiert und aufgezeigt, welche Rolle Deutschland, insbesondere durch die Förderung innovativer Ansätze in den Bereichen Klima und Sicherheit, übernehmen kann. Dazu werden bestehende Lernerfahrungen aus verschiedenen Environmental Peacebuilding Projekten aufgezeigt. Im Kontext...

Summary: Despite the intense hazard interactions in the Anthropocene, risk research is often limited by disciplinary approaches and single-sector or scale analyses, skewing policy advice toward biased, misguided, and unfair outcomes. Research has been locked in a trade-off between reductionism, ignoring the often-conflictive local contexts, and the...

The expansion of cities in Sub-Saharan Africa has led to an increase in impervious surfaces, intensifying stormwater management challenges, especially in informal settlements situated in ecologically sensitive areas like wetlands. This urban growth has heightened flood risks and negatively impacted biodiversity, water quality, and socio-economic co...

Bangladesh is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. This vulnerability stems not only from its exposure to climate change and intensified extreme weather events but also from the way adaptation policies and projects have been designed using a technocratic, top-down approach. As a result, much of the adaptation has led to negative c...

In recent years, research on normatively positive social tipping dynamics in response to the climate crisis has produced invaluable insights. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the potentially negative social tipping processes that might unfold due to an increasingly destabilized Earth system and to how they might in turn re...

There is an increasing consensus that climate change undermines human security by exacerbating existing challenges, acting as a "threat multiplier". Bangladesh is a climate hot spot due to its geographical location, dense population and vulnerable socioeconomic infrastructure. Although there is an increasing number of studies on the impacts of clim...

As the world's population continues to surge, the earth's ecological limits are being stretched. Some of the major threats to habitability stem from the pursuit of perpetual economic growth, and power struggles among nations, leading to ecological and social destruction and ongoing crises. A shift toward wiser earth management could enhance habitab...

Militär, Rüstung und Krieg belasten die Umwelt und emittieren rund 5,5% aller Treibhausgase, die Klimaextreme und Ökozide wahrscheinlicher machen. Die Kriege in der Ukraine und in Gaza bewirken enorme Emissionen, vor allem für den Wiederaufbau massiv zerstörter Infrastrukturen. Diskutiert werden Optionen eines kohlenstoff-neutralen und resilienten...

This report addresses the positive connections between sustainable, anti-hegemonic peace and climate justice. The interconnectedness of climate change and conflicts is manifold and increasingly being addressed in politics and research. Necessary social-ecological transformations are accompanied by conflicts which must be addressed constructively. A...

Positive tipping points are promising leverage points in social systems for accelerated progress towards climate and sustainability targets. Besides their impact in specific social systems such as energy, food, or social norms and values, positive tipping dynamics may in some cases spread across different systems, amplifying the impact of tipping i...

Scientific research on multiple stressors, compound hazards, and systemic risks presents missed opportunities for integration. We present a transdisciplinary framework that seeks to connect evidence on health and climate crises in the Anthropocene. To this end, we review research on multiple stressors, compound hazards, and systemic risks along the...

Bioenergy has raised significant interest and expectations due to its potential as a renewable, low-carbon and domestic energy source. Its expansion has given rise to worries regarding negative environmental and socio-economic impacts such as land-use conflict and food insecurity, deforestation and biodiversity loss, subsidies and market distortion...

Im Meer der Mitte kommen Verbindendes und Trennendes zusammen. Drei Kontinente – Europa, Asien, Afrika – treffen hier aufeinander und beeinflussen sich wechselseitig. Von Ägypten und Mesopotamien breiteten sich Schrift, Recht, Stadtentwicklung, Kultur- und Technikgeschichte über den gesamten Raum bis nach Europa und in die westliche Kultur aus. Dre...

Im Ersten Weltkrieg kulminierte eine rüstungstechnische Entwicklung, die auf der klassischen Physik basierte, vor allem der Mechanik. Mit neuen Waffensystemen und motorisierten Transportmitteln konnte Gewalt zielgenauer, über größere Distanzen und mit höherer Geschwindigkeit eingesetzt werden. Schon vorher zeichnete sich ab, dass der Abnutzungskrie...

Anläßlich des Jubiläumssymposiums 40 Jahre Wissenschaft für den Frieden am 6./7.10.2023 in Bonn haben die Autoren einen Vortrag zur aktuellen Militarisierung des Weltraums gehalten. Das Thema ist vor vier Jahrzehnten erstmalig in einer breiteren Öffentlichkeit diskutiert worden und hat seine Brisanz nicht verloren. Die Sorge um eine weitere Eskalat...

Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the sustainability of power generation technologies to achieve a secure and sustainable electricity supply in the future. This study aims to assess the sustainability of the eight key electricity generation technologies in the energy-importing Yangtze River Delta region of China and further enhance t...

The significance of information and communication technologies (ICT) for the Paris Climate Agreement is continuously increasing because of its growing energy consumption. Here we examine the question for the smartphone and extend the investigation to more aspects of sustainability. Critical issues are identified for ten UN Sustainable Development G...

The utilization of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) as Nature-based Solutions (NBS) holds significant promise for enhancing resilience against climate change-induced flooding and promoting community well-being in urban areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. While existing research predominantly emphasizes technical aspects within the NBS framework,...

Die Polarregionen der Erde befinden sich in einem tiefgreifenden Wandel. Ökosysteme und Ressourcen von Arktis und Antarktis sind essentiell für die globale Stabilität und von der globalen Erwärmung besonders betroffen. Damit verbunden sind Konfliktrisiken, aber auch Chancen der Kooperation zwischen Staaten und der Zivilgesellschaft. Während die Ant...

Das Wechselspiel zwischen dem Klimasystem und der Gesellschaft ist noch wenig verstanden. Ereignisse breiten sich durch komplexe Wirkungsketten über verschiedene räumliche und zeitliche Skalen aus. Dabei wird der Klimawandel auch als „Risikoverstärker“ und „Bedrohungsmultiplikator“ bezeichnet. In diesem Kapitel werden einige der Aspekte beleuchtet,...

Climate change has been recognised as a major concern in coastal hotspots exposed to multiple climate hazards under regionally specific characteristics of vulnerability. We review the emerging research and current trends in the academic literature on coastal climate risk and adaptation from a human security perspective. The ecological and socioecon...

Tribal farmers in the Himalayas are vulnerable to climatic changes, as their rain-fed cultivation systems, practiced on steep, sloping terrain, are susceptible to changes in rainfall while at the same time being the primary means of livelihood. Soil and water conservation practices (SWCP) can improve the resilience of these cultivation systems to a...

The global industrialization of seascapes and climate change leads to an increased risk of severe impacts on marine ecosystem functioning. While broad scale spatio-temporal assessments of human pressures on marine ecosystems become more available, future trajectories of human activities at regional and local scales remain often speculative. Here we...

Positive tipping points are promising leverage points in social systems for accelerated progress towards climate and sustainability targets. Besides their impact in specific social systems such as energy, food, or social norms and values, positive tipping dynamics may in some cases spread across different systems, amplifying the impact of tipping i...

Die Expansion menschlicher Entwicklung im Anthropozän1 überschreitet planetare Grenzen und fördert geopolitische Konflikte mit Umweltzerstörungen bis hin zu friedensgefährdenden Ökoziden. Rüstung und Klimawandel wirken als Verstärker für Ökozidrisiken und damit verbundene Gewaltkonflikte, die sich auf komplexe Weise in einem Problemgeflecht miteina...

Transforming the food system is critically important to meeting Paris Agreement targets, protecting biodiversity and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Three key leverage points to mitigate food system impacts are illustrated by case studies: reducing consumption of livestock products by shifting to more sustainable diets; avoiding...

Viable North Sea (ViNoS) is an Agent-based Model of the German North Sea Small-scale Fisheries in a Social-Ecological Systems framework focussing on the adaptive behaviour of fishers facing regulatory, economic, and resource changes. Small-scale fisheries are an important part both of the cultural perception of the German North Sea coast and of its...

Die Zusammenhänge zwischen Klimawandel und Konflikten sind vielfältig und werden in Politik und Forschung zunehmend thematisiert. Die positiven Verbindungen von nachhaltigem, herrschaftskritischem Frieden und Klimagerechtigkeit sind hingegen noch wenig erforscht. Da anstehende sozial-ökologische Transformationen mit Konflikten einhergehen, müssen d...

The abandonment of smallholder agriculture and the expansion of conventional intensive agriculture pose a potential threat to the multifunctionality of agriculture. The adoption of intensive conventional practices generates negative outcomes, such as increased greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, and degradation of land, water, and ecosyste...

While sanctions in political and economic areas are now part of the standard repertoire of Western countries (not always endorsed by UN mandates), sanctions in science and culture in general are new. Historically, fundamental research as conducted at international research centers such as CERN has long been seen as a driver for peace, and the Scien...

Forest transition and urban shrinkage have received increased attention in national ecological conservation (NEC) and local development (LD) with the urgent to attain sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, few studies have concerned with the impacts of forest transition on urban shrinkage, which limits an in-depth understanding of the relat...

This study aims to assess the role of sustainable livelihood capital, the mediation of investments and farming purposes, and the moderation of climatic and non-climatic factors in the adaptation process, particularly in the aspects of Crop, Farm, Irrigation, and Economic Management. Moreover, guided by the VIABLE (Values and Investments for Agent-B...

In recent years research on positive social tipping dynamics in response to the climate crisis has produced invaluable insights. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the potentially negative social dynamics that might arise due to an increasingly destabilised Earth system, and how they might in turn reinforce social destabilis...

Following empirical research on the dynamics of conflict and cooperation under climate change, we discuss complex transitions and interactions, connected to models of tipping points, compounding and cascading risks. In the context of multiple crisis, pathways in the climate-conflict nexus are analysed, with conflict-relevant conditions, risk indica...

Complexity emerged as a paradigm for a world that is increasingly difficult to understand. Concepts from natural sciences, notably chaos theory, self-organization and complex adaptive systems, diffused into the social sciences. The complexity-stability nexus is associated with crisis, robustness, resilience, sustainability and viability. Complexity...

This study aimed at investigating the harm from ecosystem services (ESs) according to agricultural land conversion (ALC) by using meta-analysis. The results of meta-regression showed that spatiotemporal effects had significant influences on some ES losses, and the maximum spatial impacts were relevant to Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of AL...

Human security is threatened by terrorism in the 21st century. A rapidly growing field of study aims to understand terrorist attack patterns for counter-terrorism policies. Existing research aimed at predicting terrorism from a single perspective, typically employing only background contextual information or past attacks of terrorist groups, has re...

Coastal flood risk and sea-level rise require decisions on investment in coastal protection and, in some cases, the relocation of urban areas. Models that formalize the relations between flooding costs, protective investments, and relocation can improve the analysis of the processes and issues involved and help to support decision-making better. In...

In the Anthropocene the world is facing an acceleration of human growth and its impact on nature. The expansionist world order which emerged from Europe since colonial times is reaching multiple limits (environmental, economic, social, political and scientific-technical), increasing marginal costs and risks which trigger multiple crises, conflicts...

Objectives: Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change. Methodology: Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020–2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorga...

Background Human cystic and alveolar echinococcosis are neglected tropical diseases that WHO has prioritized for control in recent years. Both diseases impose substantial burdens on public health and the socio-economy in China. In this study, which is based on the national echinococcosis survey from 2012 to 2016, we aim to describe the spatial prev...

Spätestens seit dem Aufkeimen der Klimaproteste und der von vielen als Radikalisierung der Klimabewegung beschriebenen Entwicklung der letzten Jahre ist klar geworden, dass Klimakonflikte nicht nur im Globalen Süden sondern auch in Deutschland an Relevanz gewinnen. Im Fokus steht hierzulande vor allem der politische Umgang mit Klimaschutzmaßnahmen...

Global crises such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic do not affect cities uniformly. These crises converge in urban areas and often interact through their primary and secondary impacts with the vulnerability of urban populations. This paper investigates urban development dynamics and socio-environmental vulnerability in a megalopolis in t...

Application of Climate Engineering: A problem for peace and security: Although a global consensus about the implementation of climate engineering (CE) technologies is currently unlikely, their initial intention appears to be peaceful. However, the application of some CE technologies requires a steady – or even intensifying – use over long periods o...

Die Welt sieht sich miteinander verflochtenen multiplen Krisen, Konflikten und Katastrophen gegenüber, die sich als vertrackte Probleme (wicked problems) in komplexen Krisenlandschaften verdichten. Die Probleme verstärken die Erosion der regelbasierten internationalen Weltordnung und erfordern neue Lösungspfade, ohne die Komplexität der Welt unzulä...

Modeling experts have been continually researching the interplay of human mobility and COVID-19 transmission since the outbreak of the pandemic. They tried to address this problem and support the control of the pandemic spreading at the national or regional levels. However, these modeling approaches had little success in producing empirically verif...

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is a technique for reducing the emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) while also protecting vulnerable forest ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to recognize suitable areas for REDD+ projects and calculate the reduction in CO2 emissions through the prevention of forest cover deg...

Seit dem Angriff Russlands auf die Ukraine hat sich das internationale System weiter massiv in Richtung Konfrontation verschoben. Mit der Rede von einer umfassenden »Zeitenwende« wird der Eindruck erweckt, bis dahin geltende Orientierungen der Sicherheitspolitik seien nun obsolet. Wenn die Kriegslogik die Herrschaft übernimmt, wird die Logik des Fr...

Zusammenfassung: Der Angriffskrieg der Russischen Föderation gegen die Ukraine droht die menschengemachte Erderhitzung und die Gestaltung einer klimagerechten Zukunft aus dem Blick geraten zu lassen. Wir führen in diesem Diskussionsbeitrag aus, welche Probleme sich aus der aktuell verfolgten Energiepolitik ergeben haben und welche sich daraus zukün...

Humanity deals with several challenges in this century such as climate change, land use, and land use/cover change (LUCC). Determining the patterns, developments, and consequences of LUCC issues for the livelihoods of people, especially poor people, is very important. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the interactions between LUCC and clima...

The plausibility assessments in Chapters 3 and 6 show that reaching deep decarbonization by 2050 is currently not plausible. The chapters also highlight a series of constraining conditions for the attainment of the Paris Agreement temperature goals. Considering that global emissions keep rising (Dhakal et al., 2022) and that climatic change already...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought widespread suffering and destruction, both in Ukraine and around the world. The ongoing war also threatens the implementation of global climate goals. Global climate policies are at a crossroads: Are we entering a new political era of conflict that severely impedes attempts at global cooperation to reduce em...

International climate politics have evolved substantially in the past decades and are no longer confined to international state negotiations and governmental action. Transnational initiatives are new forms of climate governance that cut across traditional state-based jurisdictions and operate across public and private divides (Bulkeley et al., 2014...

Excessive concentration of greenhouse gases in atmosphere emitted from human activities has been considerably changing the world’s climate, especially in the last 50 years. Agriculture, as humans’ food production system, has undoubtedly interrelated with climate change (CC). During current decades, the impacts of CC on agriculture have been properl...

Climate change is thought to be having a negative impact on Africa's agricultural industry. Smallholder farmers who depend heavily on agriculture are more severely affected by climate change. Droughts and the depletion of water resources are two examples of how climate change affects production. Therefore, it is necessary to take steps to reduce th...

Today, declining soil fertility is the main biophysical constraint to improve crop yield and poses a potential threat to food security. This study aims to explore the elements that could influence the adoption of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices as well as their impact on maize yield. This study is based on a pseudopanel collec...

Lately, commentators on spaceflight raise concerns over rising militarization, possible weaponization, and space becoming a theater of war. Some see arms control regimes as the solution, while others point to the complexity of space technologies and the impossibility to create a functioning arms control regime. These concerns are usually discussed...

Kriegerische Konflikte wie der in der Ukraine verursachen nicht nur unmittelbares menschliches Leid, sondern sie verschärfen auch die Klimakrise. Beide sind in vielfacher Weise mit den Problemen des fossil-nuklearen Zeitalters verbunden. Dieses war schon lange gekennzeichnet durch Krisen und Konflikte um Kohle, Öl, Erdgas und Kernenergie. In vieler...

Motivation: Der Begriff „negative Emission“ bezeichnet das aktive Entfernen von Kohlendioxid aus der Atmosphäre und das langfristige Speichern des Kohlendioxids oder des darin enthaltenen Kohlenstoffes, um den Treibhauseffekt und damit die Erderwärmung zu begrenzen. Negative Emissionen von Kohlendioxid sind wesentlicher Teil nahezu aller Szenarien,...

This study aimed to analyze the role of social capital and leadership in improving the adaptive capacity of Iranian pistachio farmers by using Social Network Analysis (SNA). The results indicate that the studied network is not a dense network, and there are few reciprocal and face-to-face relations among farmers. The findings also illustrate that i...

Beitrag zum Blog „Soziale Ökologie. Krise – Kritik – Gestaltung“ des ISOE – Institut für sozial-ökologische Forschung https://isoe.blog/zivile-konfliktbearbeitung-als-beitrag-zur-sozial-oekologischen-transformation-in-der-klimakrise/ Die komplexen Zusammenhänge zwischen Klimakrise und Konflikten machen zunehmend Schlagzeilen und zeigen sich nicht...

Forest ecosystem services (FES) are perceived and valued differently by different occupational groups. It is necessary to understand the various viewpoints and determinants, which have significant implications for forest management and biodiversity conservation. This suggests a need for diverse site-specific socio-cultural valuations of ecosystem s...

Die Menschheit greift nicht nur auf den Planeten zu, es verlangt sie auch immer wieder und immer weiter nach den Sternen. Doch im orbitalen Nahraum der Erde wird langsam der Platz eng. Eine wilde Gemengelage aus geopolitischen Interessen, privaten Satelliten, Weltraumwaffen und Weltraumschrott trifft auf eklatante Regelungslücken und eine immer kon...

How just are risk responses that worsen vulnerability in the long term? Should the urban poor be left with self-reliance when facing hazards in the Anthropocene? This research investigates urban development and vulnerability in the Anthropocene. While it is known that informal settlements face greater hazards than most urbanized areas, there are di...

Although numerous studies have examined the effects of climate variability on armed conflict, the complexity of these linkages requires deeper understanding to assess the causes and effects. Here, we assembled an extensive database of armed conflict, climate, and non-climate data for South Asia. We used structural equation modeling to quantify both...

Die Klimakrise ist eine Vielfachkrise. Sie zerstört nicht nur unsere Ökosysteme, sondern fordert auch unsere Wirtschaft, Politik, Werte und Psyche in gewaltigem Maße heraus. »Das historische Unterfangen der Moderne ist abgedriftet, hat Freiheitsversprechungen kultiviert, die einem ungedeckten Scheck gleichen, weil ihnen jede materielle Basis fehlt...

Mehr als 100 Millionen Menschen sind weltweit auf der Flucht. Jede Flucht hat ihren Grund. Fluchtursachen, nicht Flüchtlinge müssen bekämpft werden. Wofür sind wir mit unserem Wirtschaftssystem und unserem Lebensstil verantwortlich? Und wozu verpflichtet uns diese Verantwortung? Diesen Fragen geht das Buch nach und macht Vorschläge zur Bekämpfung d...