Juan Rosellón

• PhD
• Professor (Full) at Center for Research and Teaching in Economics

Operating a reliable electricity system requires strict safety and security criteria such as avoiding grid congestion, minimum levels of inertia, maintaining voltage levels, and minimum adequacy reserves. However, large scale integration of intermittent renewables, namely inverter-based resources (IBR), is creating operational challenges. When oper...

The 2022 energy crisis highlighted the dependence of the Europe electricity sector on imported natural gas and the need to accelerate the adoption of renewables to the power system. However, operating a reliable power system with high share of renewables might require curtailing some renewables and activating conventional generators not scheduled i...

The 2022 energy crisis highlighted the dependence of Europe electricity sector on imported gas and the need to accelerate the connection of renewables to the power system. However, the allocation of generation and demand in electricity markets is not always technically viable and, where needed, system operators must activate or curtail specific gen...

Operating a reliable power system requires respecting strict safety and security criteria such as avoiding grid congestion, minimum levels of inertia, maintaining voltage levels, and having minimum adequacy reserves. However, large scale integration of intermittent renewables is transforming grid operation by creating new operational challenges. Wh...

Existing tariff schemes often fail to achieve basic economic objectives. They set prices per unit that either exceed or fall short the social marginal cost and produce unfair distributional outcomes. In many cases, electricity rates also contribute to unsustainable fiscal deficits due to the (almost) generalized electricity subsidies. Moreover, ine...

Changing political conditions in Mexico threatens the future of clean energy in the country. A competitive electricity market and ambitious environmental goals were among the priorities of the previous administration, but the current administration aims to increase revenues from the national power company and acquire control of the electricity mark...

This study examines the impact of natural gas prices on the power systems of Mexico and the United States. For this, we develop an integrated modeling framework by soft linking three different techno-economic bottom-up models of the power and energy systems, one partial equilibrium model of the natural gas sector, and a partial equilibrium model of...

We study the impact of Mexico's energy reform on the welfare of electricity, liquified petroleum gas, and gasoline consumers between 2010 and 2018. We utilize micro-level data to estimate income and price elasticities. Comparative statics are used to determine subsidy and price influences on consumer surplus. A counterfactual is used to simulate th...

The electricity sector has tended to be one of the first industries to face technology change motivated by sustainability concerns. Whilst efficient market designs for electricity have tended to focus upon market power concerns, environmental externalities pose extra challenges for efficient solutions. Thus, we show that ad hoc remedies for market...

The electricity sector is in an unprecedented time of transition. The industry is in the process of adjusting from traditional fossil-fuel to renewable generation, from large-scale to distributed generation and from vertically-integrated monopolies to verticallyseparated industrial structuresunder diverse formsof competition. Efficient transmission...

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar los cambios producidos por las reformas regulatorias en el mercado del gas natural mexicano entre 2009 y 2018. Para tal efecto se realizan diversas pruebas unitarias y de quiebres estructurales a las series de volúmenes y precios del gas natural que describen su comportamiento en los mercados nacionales e int...

A well-planned electric transmission infrastructure is the foundation of a reliable and efficient power system, especially in the presence of large scale renewable generation. However, the current electricity market designs lack incentive mechanisms which can guarantee optimal transmission investments and ensure reliable integration of renewable ge...

Transmission network investment has emerged as a pivotal problem for the electricity industry, as it adapts to the change from traditional to renewable generation, from large scale to distributed generation and from vertically integrated monopolies to vertically separated production stages in various states of competition. Because transmission coor...

Understanding the Granger causality directions between electricity production (EP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is helpful for policymakers in order to design, redesign, and implement effective energy policies. Although there are plenty of studies on this issue, no consistent conclusion about said relationship exists. In this paper, we provide...

This book provides a systematic overview of transmission network investment in liberalized power markets. Recent government policies to increase the share of intermittent renewable power generation and other technological innovations present new theoretical as well as practical challenges for transmission investments. Written by experts with a back...

Electricity prices have seen a consistent upward trend since the implementation of Mexico’s electricity market reform (emr). This has been interpreted by some as a failure of the emr. In this paper we study the determinants of such price increases. We calculate the generation cost curve of the Federal Electricity Commission prior to the entry into...

This paper investigates joint investment planning of transmission lines and energy storage. Energy storage can be seen as a complement to transmission infrastructure and can be used for transmission deferral. On the other hand, under certain conditions, when the expected profit of both sectors depends on congestion in the system, transmission and e...

p align="center"> RESUMEN Analizamos los efectos sobre bienestar social de dos distintos procesos de planeación de expansión de la red de transmisión. Un primer modelo ( integrado ) considera las decisiones de generación y transmisión como actividades interdependientes. Un segundo modelo ( desintegrado ) supone dichas decisiones de expansión inde...

The informationally simple approach to incentive regulation applies mechanisms that translate the regulator's objective function into the firm's profit-maximizing objective. These mechanisms come in two forms, one based on subsidies/taxes, the other based on constraints/price caps. In spite of a number of improvements and a good empirical track rec...

Mexico plans to implement a national program to support the adoption of distributed photo-voltaic generation (DPVG) among qualified households. The main objectives of such a program would be to reduce the burden of the substantial federal energy subsidy and increase the share of renewable energy sources used to generate electricity. In this paper w...

The change from a subsidized zonal pricing system to a full nodal pricing regime in the new Mexican electricity market could improve the efficiency of electricity system operation. However, resulting price modifications might also swing surplus across producers and consumers. In this paper, we calculate nodal prices for the Mexican power system and...

The tariff imposed over the use of electricity transmission networks is one critical factor to achieve efficiency in electricity markets. In Mexico, the current transmission network tariffs are based on long run marginal costs. We propose an incentive price-cap mechanism and apply it to the meshed network system in the isolated electricity system o...

This paper addresses electricity transmission planning under the new industry and institutional structure of the Mexican electricity market, which has engaged in a deep reform process after decades of a state-owned-vertically-integrated-non-competitive-closed industry. Under this new structure, characterized by a nodal pricing system and an indepen...

A shift from zonal to nodal pricing improves the efficiency of system operation. However, resulting price changes also shift surplus across generation and loads at different locations. As individual actors can lose, they might oppose any reform. We explore how allocation of financial transmission rights can be used to mitigate the distributional im...

We analyze the electricity transmission planning process in Germany (Netzentwicklungsplan), which separates transmission expansion decisions from generation dispatch. We employ an economic modeling approach to analyze two different network planning settings. In the first setting, there is no trade-off between transmission network development and ge...

We analyze various regulatory regimes for electricity transmission investment in the context of a power system transformation toward renewable energy. Distinctive developments of the generation mix are studied, assuming that a shift toward renewables may have temporary or permanent impacts on network congestion. We specifically analyze the relative...

Adequate extension of electricity transmission networks is required for integrating fluctuating renewable energy sources, such as wind power, into electricity systems. We study the performance of different regulatory approaches for network expansion in the context of realistic demand patterns and fluctuating wind power. In particular, we are intere...

This paper proposes an incentive mechanism for transmission expansion planning. The mechanism is a bilevel program. The upper level is a profit-maximizing transmission company (Transco) which expands its transmission system while endogenously predicts and influences the generation investment. The lower level is the optimal generation dispatch and i...

We analyze the current regulatory regime for electricity transmission in Germany, which combines network planning with both cost-plus and revenue-cap regulations. After reviewing international experiences on transmission investment, we first make a qualitative assessment of the overall German regime. The German TSOs have in general incentives to ov...

To date, the distributive implications of incentive regulation on electricity transmission networks have not been explicitly studied in the literature. More specifically, the parameters that a regulator might use to achieve distributive efficiency under price-cap regulation have not yet been identified. To discern these parameters is the motivation...

Electricity transmission grid expansion and pricing have received increasing attention in recent years. Transmission networks provide the fundamental support upon which competitive electricity markets depend. Congestion of transmission networks might increase market power in certain regions, put entry barriers to potential competitors in the genera...

We analyze regulatory regimes for electricity transmission investment in the context of transformation of the power system towards renewable energy. We study three distinctive developments of the generation mix with different implications on network congestion, which may be either of temporary or permanent nature. We address the relative performanc...

The aim of this book is to be an accessible source to researchers and professionals working with financial transmission rights (FTRs), and electricity market regulation. It contains contributions from leading experts within the field (both practitioners and academics) that provide overviews, both on theory and practical aspects, with detailed discu...

We present a hybrid mechanism application for the electrical system network expansion in Mexico, United States and Canada. The application is based on redefining the transmission output in terms of "point-to-point" transactions or financial transmission rights (FTRs); rebalancing the fixed and variable parts of a two-part tariff; as well as in the...

This paper presents the application of a mechanism that provides incentives to promote transmission network expansion in the electricity system of the Ontario province. Such mechanism combines a merchant approach with a regulatory approach. It is based on the rebalancing of a two-part tariff within the framework of a wholesale electricity market wi...

After the regulatory reform experienced in the Mexican gas sector, three areas with market power remained. Production is a legal monopoly of Pemex. Transportation and distribution are natural monopolies. Distributor’s gas sales to (mainly residential) customers are potentially monopolistic in case of lack of competition from marketers or substitute...

Electricity transmission has become the pivotal industry segment for electricity restructuring. Yet, little is known about the shape of transmission cost functions. Reasons for this can be a lack of consensus about the definition of transmission output and the complexitity of the relationship between optimal grid expansion and output expansion. Kno...

This paper presents an application of a mechanism that provides incentives to promote transmission network expansion in the electricity system of the Ontario province. Such a mechanism combines a merchant approach with a regulatory approach. It is based on the rebalancing of a two-part tariff within the framework of a wholesale electricity market w...

This research presents an application of the Hogan, Rosellón and Vogelsang (2010) (HRV) mechanism to promote electricity transmission network expansion in the Peruvian electricity transmission system known as SEIN (Sistema Eléctrico Interconectado Nacional). The HRV mechanism combines the merchant and regulatory approaches to promote investment int...

Estudiamos las implicaciones de vincular el precio del gas natural en México al del sur de Texas sobre la comercialización eficiente del gas en el primero. Argumentamos que a Pemex se le debería permitir firmar contratos spot o de futuros en la venta de gas. Sin embargo, el precio del gas debería ser siempre igual al precio netback basado en el Hou...

We propose a merchant-regulatory framework to promote investment in the European natural gas network infrastructure based on a price cap over two-part tariffs. As suggested by Vogelsang (2001) and Hogan et al. (2010), a profit maximizing network operator facing this regulatory constraint will intertemporally rebalance the variable and fixed part of...

We study the performance of different regulatory approaches for the expansion of electricity transmission networks in the light of realistic demand patterns and fluctuating wind power. In particular, we are interested in the relative performance of a combined merchant-regulatory mechanism compared to a cost-based and a merchant-like approach. In co...

This paper presents an application of a mechanism that provides incentives to promote transmission network expansion in the area of the US electric system known as PJM. The applied mechanism combines the merchant and regulatory approaches to attract investment into transmission grids. It is based on rebalancing a two-part tariff in the framework of...

We apply a merchant transmission model to the trilateral market coupling (TLC) arrangement among the Netherlands, Belgium and France as an example, and note that it could further be applied to other market splitting or coupling of Europe’s different national power markets. In this merchant framework the system operator allocates financial transmiss...

Electricity transmission pricing and transmission grid expansion have received increasing attention in recent years. There are two disparate approaches to transmission investment: one employs the theory based on long-run financial rights (LTFTR) to transmission (merchant approach), while the other is based on the incentive-regulation hypothesis (re...

This paper looks into various models that address strategic behavior in the supply of gas by the Mexican monopoly Pemex. The paper has three very strong technical results. First, the netback pricing rule for the price of domestic natural gas (based on a Houston benchmark price) leads to discontinuities in Pemex’s revenue function. Second, having Pe...

We address investment in regulated natural gas pipelines when investment is lumpy and the demand for gas is stochastic. This is a problem that can be solved in theory as a dynamic program, but a practical solution depends on functions and parameters that are either subjective or cannot be estimated. We then reformulate the problem from the standpoi...

This paper examines the Hogan-Rosellón-Vogelsang (2007) (HRV) incentive mechanism for transmission expansion, and tests it for different network topologies. This new mechanism is based upon redefining transmission output in terms of point-to-point transactions or financial transmission rights (FTRs) and applies Vogelsang’s (2001) incentive-regulati...

In 1997, the Comision Reguladora de Energia of Mexico implemented a netback rule for linking the Mexican natural gas price to the Texas price. At that time, the Texas price reflected a reasonably competitive market. There have been dramatic increases in the demand for gas, and there are various bottlenecks in the supply of gas. As a result, the pri...

We present a hybrid mechanism application for the electrical system network expansion in Mexico, United States and Canada. The application is based on redefining the transmission output in terms of "point-to-point" transactions or financial transmission rights (FTRs); rebalancing the fixed and variable parts of a two-part tariff; as well as in the...

This paper presents an application of a mechanism that provides incentives to promote transmission network expansion in the area of the US electric system known as PJM. The applied mechanism combines the merchant and regulatory approaches to attract investment into transmission grids. It is based on rebalancing a two-part tariff in the framework of...

In 1997, the Comisi�n Reguladora de Energ�a of Mexico implemented a netback rule for linking the Mexican natural gas price to the Texas price. At the time, the Texas price reflected a reasonably competitive market. Since that time, there have been dramatic increases in the demand for natural gas and there are various bottlenecks in the supply of na...

We apply a merchant transmission model to the trilateral market coupling (TLC) arrangement among the Netherlands, Belgium and France as a generic example, and note that it can be applied to any general market splitting or coupling of Europe's different national power markets. In this merchant framework; the system operator allocates financial trans...

Electricity transmission has become the pivotal industry segment for electricity restructuring. Yet, little is known about the shape of transmission cost functions. Reasons for this can be a lack of consensus about the definition of transmission output and the complexitity of the relationship between optimal grid expansion and output expansion. Kno...

This paper studies resource adequacy, i.e. the market design dilemma of ensuring enough generation capacity in the long run. International experiences have shown that it is difficult that the market alone provides incentives to attract enough investment in capacity reserves. We analyze various measures to cope with this problem, including moth-ball...

This paper studies resource adequacy, i.e. the market design dilemma of ensuring enough generation capacity in the long run. International experiences have shown that it is difficult that the market alone provides incentives to attract enough investment in capacity reserves. We analyze various measures to cope with this problem, including moth–ball...

Este artículo presenta un estudio de caso de regulación del precio del gas natural en México como ejemplo de investigación ¿exitosa¿ de medidas de política pública. Los estudios realizados al amparo de un acuerdo académico entre la Comisión Reguladora de Energía (CRE) y el Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE) en la ciudad de México...

This paper considers the regulation of pricing of liquid petroleum gas in Mexico. We construct a model that incorporates all information essential to the pricing question and derive relationships that should hold between prices in Mexico and prices in world markets. Prices in Mexico can be tied to the readily observable prices in the United States...

This study proposes an incentive regulatory framework for expanding electricity transmission in Mexico. A two-part pricing model is implemented within a combined merchant-regulatory structure. Three cases are considered. In the first, a monopolist with “postage stamp tariffs” serves the whole country using uniform prices. In the second case, one fi...

Over the last fifteen years the world's largest developing countries have initiated market reform in their electric power sectors from generation to distribution. This book evaluates the experiences of five of those countries - Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa - as they have shifted from state-dominated systems to schemes allowing for...

This paper studies the possible impacts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects on natural gas prices on both sides of the U. S.-Mexico border in California. In that state gas prices are high and demand is expected to grow. Several projects for LNG facilities have been proposed and have to cope with public opinions against them. In Baja California,...

This paper studies the electricity market design long run problem of ensuring enough generation capacity to meet future demand (resource adequacy). Reform processes worldwide have shown that it is difficult for the market alone to provide incentives to attract enough investment in capacity reserves due to technical and institutional features. We st...

We propose a merchant mechanism to expand electricity transmission based on long-term financial transmission rights (FTRs). Due to network loop flows, a change in network capacity might imply negative externalities on existing transmission property rights. The system operator thus needs a protocol for awarding incremental FTRs that maximize investo...

The Comisi�n Reguladora de Energ�a of Mexico has implemented a netback rule for linking the Mexican natural gas price to the Texas natural gas benchmark price in an industry structure characterized by a vertically integrated state-owned monopoly. This paper shows that in an open economy where agents can choose between gas and alternative fuels, and...

The Comisión Reguladora de Energía of Mexico has implemented a netback rule for linking the Mexican natural gas price to the Texas natural gas price. This paper shows that in an open economy where agents can chose between gas and alternative fuels, and where the density function describing the distribution of agents along the pipeline can have inte...

The Comisión Reguladora de Energía of Mexico has implemented a netback rule for linking the Mexican natural gas price to the Texas natural gas benchmark price in an industry structure characterized by a vertically integrated state-owned monopoly. This paper shows that in an open economy where agents can choose between gas and alternative fuels, and...

At the present time, solar power is not a competitive fuel for supplying electricity to the grid in the United States. However, an economic model developed by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) forecasts that solar power production costs could drop twenty percent every time output doubles. Commercial demand for solar cells in the...

In 1995 the Mexican government initiated structural reform of the natural gas sector-reform that permitted private investment in transportation, storage, distribution, trade and marketing while maintaining a State monopoly in production. It prepared a detailed regulatory framework to implement the sector liberalization, including an element to deve...

We study the implications of linking the Mexican natural gas price to the Houston price on the efficient marketing of gas in Mexico. We argue that Pemex should be permitted to enter into spot contracts or future contracts to sell gas. However, the price of gas should always be the net back price based on the Houston Ship Channel at the time of deli...

There is an intense debate regarding the best way to attract investment for the long-term expansion of an electricity transmission network. We study three hypotheses: the long-term financialtransmission- right hypothesis; the incentive-regulation hypothesis; and the market-power hypothesis. The first approach derives optimal transmission expansion...

This paper addresses the timing of optimal investment in LPG pipelines when the goal is to maximize consumer surplus less private cost and social of transporting LPG. The loss of consumer surplus is small. The important elements are the private cost of transporting LPG and the congestion created by trucks.

This paper addresses the timing of optimal investment in LPG pipelines when the goal is to maximize consumer surplus less private cost and social of transporting LPG. The loss of consumer surplus is small. The important elements are the private cost of transporting LPG and the congestion created by trucks.// En este artículo se analiza el momento ó...

The Mexican energy regulatory commission--Comision Reguladora de Energia (CRE)--has implemented a netback rule for linking the Mexican market for natural gas with the North American market. This paper describes the economic analysis that supported this policy. We show that the netback rule is the efficient way to price natural gas and it is in fact...

We examine regulation of distribution tariffs in the Mexican natural gas industry. Average revenue in each period is constrained not to exceed an upper bound and is calculated as the ratio of total revenue to output in the current period. This regime implies incentives for strategically setting two-part tariffs. The usage charge is typically droppe...

We analyze the perspectives of reform for the Mexican electricity sector. The main results that we obtained were the following. First, given the current technologies for generation by CFE and LFC, and the new technologies that are more likely to get into the generation business, we conclude that a model that asks for a stand-by or reserve market to...

The natural gas industry combines activities with natural monopoly characterisitics with those that are potentially competitive. Pipeline transport and distribution, which have natural monopoly characterisitcs, require regulation of price and non-price behavior. Production is a contestable activity, but in a few countries (including Mexico) it rema...

This paper addresses the problem of a government trying to maximize welfare through use of rules of origin regulations when there is conflict among various domestic interests, Numerical computations using this model showed that the optimal rule of origin was very sensitive to the technical parameters of the model and;to the specifics of the differe...