
Juan Pablo MedinaAdolfo Ibáñez University · School of Business
Juan Pablo Medina
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Introduction
Skills and Expertise
Publications
Publications (74)
In the context of the imperative global shift towards renewable energy to mitigate climate change, Latin America (LATAM) emerges as a region of immense untapped potential. However, there is no formal quantification of the effects of developing this potential. This study analyzes the economic and climate impacts of developing renewable energy in LAT...
The exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to local prices is critical for determining inflation dynamics and monetary policy. Different factors have been considered to explain the variation of the ERPT across time and countries. This paper aims to disentangle the role of shocks and monetary policy credibility on the ERPT, estimating medium-scale New Ke...
While the conventional policy prescription for dealing with commodity price shocks is the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime, a view popularized by Friedman (1953), in practice many emerging economies decide to intervene in the foreign exchange market. In this paper, we evaluate the optimal exchange rate policy response to commodity price...
We study the optimal management of capital flows in a small open economy model with financial frictions and multiple policy instruments. The paper reports two main findings. First, both foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and macroprudential polices are tools complementary to the monetary policy rate that can largely reduce inflation and output vol...
We study the optimal management of capital flows in a small open economy model with financial frictions and multiple policy instruments (monetary policy rate, foreign exchange intervention, and reserve requirements). Two are the main results of the paper. First, both foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and reserve requirements are policy tools comp...
In several countries public finances are under pressure by pension obligations rising due to downward trends in fertility, increased longevity and financial markets with low interest rates. For these reasons, the establishment of Pension Reserve Funds (PRF) has flourished. Regardless of the specific objectives that these PRFs may have, a critical i...
Over the last decade, empirical studies analyzing macroeconomic conditions that may affect the size of government spending multipliers have flourished. Yet, in spite of their obvious public policy importance, little is known about public investment multipliers. In particular, the clear theoretical implication that public investment multipliers shou...
We develop a small open economy model where the central bank operates under a flexible inflation targeting regime, i.e., monetary policy is aimed at stabilizing output and inflation. In this theoretical framework, we analyze to what extent foreign exchange intervention (FXI) can contribute to the central bank goals for different degrees of credibil...
This paper studies the joint dynamics of fiscal deficits and unemployment in a neoclassical growth model with distortionary taxation, labor market search frictions, and real wage rigidities. First, we show that a tax increase or a reduction in government spending can improve the fiscal balance at the expense of a higher unemployment rate. However,...
We estimate the stabilization objectives of four Latin American countries that have implemented a flexible inflation targeting regime recently: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru. In doing so, we develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for these economies and estimate their structural parameters through Bayesian methods....
This work analyzes and quantifies how the mining sector affects the other macroeconomic variables in Chile, with special focus on understanding the macroeconomic factors that have helped Chile to avoid the Natural Resource Curse. To do this, we use three complementary strategies. First, we review the related literature and present aggregate statist...
We study exchange rate dynamics under cooperative and self-oriented policies in a two-country DSGE model with unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. The cooperative solution features a large exchange rate adjustment that cushions the impact of negative shocks and a moderate use of unconventional policy instruments. Self-oriented polici...
We study the optimal foreign exchange (FX) intervention policy in response to a positive terms of trade shock
and associated Dutch disease episode in a small open economy model. We find that during a Dutch disease
episode tradable production drops below the socially optimal level, resulting in lower welfare under learningby-
doing (LBD) externaliti...
We study the optimal foreign exchange (FX) intervention policy in response to a positive terms of trade shock
and associated Dutch disease episode in a small open economy model. We find that during a Dutch disease
episode tradable production drops below the socially optimal level, resulting in lower welfare under learningby-
doing (LBD) externaliti...
We study exchange rate dynamics under cooperative and self-oriented policies in a two-country DSGE model with unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. The cooperative solution features a large exchange rate adjustment that cushions the impact of negative shocks and a moderate use of unconventional policy instruments. Self-oriented polici...
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of commodity price shocks on a commodity exporting country. In doing so, we use a DSGE model developed to describe the business cycle in Chile, a copper exporting country. We compare the effects of commodity-price shocks under different fiscal rules. The results show that if the fiscal policy is conduct...
We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on stabilizing output and inflation can achieve better outcomes by using FX intervention as an additional...
This paper studies the Swedish fiscal consolidation episode of the 1990s through the lens of a small open economy model with distortionary taxation and unemployment. We argue that the simultaneous reduction in the fiscal deficit and unemployment rate in this episode stems from two factors: (i) high growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP), e...
In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro policies are conducted through rules. We show that th...
We study interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies in a model with nominal and financial frictions. The latter derive from a financial sector that provides credit and liquidity services that lead to a financial accelerator-cum-fire-sales amplification mechanism. In response to fluctuations in world interest rates, inflation targeti...
In this paper we analyze empirically the consequence of the global financial crisis in the Chilean economy. We estimate a small open economy DSGE model extended to incorporate financial frictions. Our results indicate that financial shocks played a major role in explaining the downturn in activity in Chile in 2009. Other domestic shocks, such as de...
This paper studies the issue of optimal monetary policy and social insurance in a small open economy model with sticky prices and segmented asset markets. We evaluate whether optimal monetary policy should stabilize inflation to correct distortions associated with price stickiness or if it should provide social insurance (i.e., stabilize consumptio...
This paper explores some of the channels through which the terms of trade influence the labor market in an emerging economy like Chile. To do so, we analyze the cyclical properties of labor variables using an autoregressive vector to estimate the responses of the labor market to a terms of trade shock in Chile, for which two sources are defined: th...
This paper evaluates how successful a policy of exchange rate stabilization is in counteracting the negative effects of a Dutch disease episode. We consider a small open-economy model that incorporates nominal rigidities and a learning-bydoing externality in the tradable sector. The paper shows that leaning against an appreciated exchange rate can...
This paper quantitatively evaluates the effects of several unconventional monetary policies. In particular, a new Keynesian model of a small-open economy is extended to include a liquidity premium, deviations from the UIP condition, and a premium in the term structure of interest rates; allowing the Central Bank to set, in addition to the policy ra...
The aim of this paper is to analyze the optimal monetary policy response to financial shocks -an increase in interest rate spreads-in a small open economy. We show that the optimal response depends on: (i) the degree of correlation between the financial shock and foreign financial conditions and (ii) the extend to which the UIP condition holds with...
Financial frictions have been shown to play an important role amplifying business cycles fluctuations. In this paper we show that the financial accelerator mechanism, analyzed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilrchrist (1999), combined with adaptive learning can amplify business cycle fluctuations significantly as the balance sheet channel interacts with...
La economía internacional ha vivido significativos acontecimientos durante los últimos años: la creciente importancia de los países asiáticos en el comercio global; la crisis financiera de 2007-08, la gran recesión en EE.UU. y su propagación al resto del mundo; el agudo aumento y posterior caída del precio de las materias primas en el período 2006-...
The global economy has experienced several significant developments during the recent years: the rising role of giant Asian economies in international trade; the 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing Great Recession in the US, with its propagation to the rest of the world; the sharp rise and subsequent burst of commodity prices over 2006-2009. In t...
This paper analyzes boom-bust cycles in emerging market economies triggered by miss-perception about future productivity. Using a small open economy DSGE model we show that non-materialized news about future productivity improvements (i.e. overoptimism) generate boombust cycles that replicate the stylized facts of several emerging economies during...
Abstract This paper analyzes the impact,of copper-price shocks on the Chilean business cycle using a DSGE model. We compare,the effects of copper-price shocks under,different fiscal rules and different assumptions,regarding the asset structure in the economy. The results show that when,the fiscal policy is highly expansive,in response,to a transito...
This paper uses an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities, to describe the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Chile. Our results show that foreign shocks and domestic supply shock account for a large share of output fluctuations over the last 20 years. Relatively tight domestic monetary condit...
This paper uses a DSGE model to explore what factors explain current account developments in Chile and New Zealand, two small open economies that are intensive commodity exporters. The model estimation shows that investment-specific shocks, foreign financial changes, and foreign demand shocks account for the bulk of the variation in the current acc...
This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a two-sector small open economy model under segmented asset markets and sticky prices. We solve the Ramsey problem under full commitment, and characterize the optimal monetary policy in a calibrated version of the model. The findings of the paper are threefold. First, the Ramsey solution mimics the allo...
This paper uses the Model for Analysis and Simulations (MAS), a new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Chilean economy to describe the sources of business cycle fluctuations. We describe the structure and the main components of the model. Key structural parameters that determine the extent of real and nominal rigidities are estima...
This paper characterizes the dynamics of price adjustments in Chile using data at the establishment level of goods in the CPI basket. Our results show that nominal rigidities are lower when measured at micro-level compared to estimates based on macro data. The frequency of price adjustments appears to be relatively stable over the sample period 199...
Este trabajo caracteriza la dinámica de ajustes de precios en Chile usando datos a nivel de establecimientos para los productos de la canasta del IPC. Nuestros resultados muestran que las rigideces nominales son más bajas cuando están medidas a nivel microeconómico que cuando están estimadas con datos agregados de precios. La frecuencia de ajustes...
Monetary policies of the ECB and US Fed can be characterised by Taylor rules, that is both central banks seem to be setting rates by taking into account the output gap and inflation. We also set up and tested Taylor rules which incorporate money growth and the euro-dollar exchange rate, thereby improving the fit between actual and Taylor rule based...
Financial frictions have been used to enrich mechanisms transmission in macroeconomics. However, the predictions of real business cycle models of costly external finance imply a procyclical default rate, external premium and relative price of capital which seems at odds with the data. In this article, we include technology shocks that affect the av...
Knowing the frictions that are present in the economy is a key step towards the efficient design of policy actions. In particular, price and wage rigidities determine the degree of tradeoff between output and inflation stabilization that central banks face. In this context, the main purpose of this paper is to determine the importance of nominal an...
This paper presents additional evidence on the international nature of the “Great Moderation:" the apparent structural decline in the variance of GDP growth first documented in the United States. We find evidence of a similar reduction in volatility in the other G-7 countries and Australia. However, the timing and nature of the moderation varies co...
This paper analyzes the effects of oil-price shocks from a general equilibrium standpoint. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, estimated by Bayesian methods for the Chilean economy. The model explicitly includes oil in the consumption basket and also in the technology used by domestic firms. With the estimated model we...
This document presents a first version of the Model for Analysis and Simulations (MAS), a new general equilibrium model for the Chilean economy. The document describes the structure and the main components of the model, and analyzes some impulse-response functions. It also presents a preliminary evaluation of the model comparing some moments in the...
This article analyzes firm dynamics when the entrepreneurs have limited capacity to comply with their financial contracts. We characterize the optimal constrained contract under this imperfection in the presence of productivity and interest rate fluctuations. We show that under the optimal contract, productivity and interest rate fluctuations have...
This paper evaluates the performance of simple monetary policy rules in a calibrated model for the Chilean economy. The monetary regimes considered are: exchange rate peg, money peg, inflation targeting, nontradable inflation targeting, and a Taylor rule. We develop a small open economy model with tradable and nontradable goods, monopolistic compet...
This paper explores the implications for optimal monetary policy rules of including a target for the current account (CA) among central bank (CB) objectives. Using a simple but realistic macroeconomic model of the Chilean economy and standard dynamic programming with forward looking variables, the paper finds optimal rules under alternative specifi...
We calculate and compare optimal monetary policy (MP) rules for a simple economy under alternative central bank objective (loss) functions. We compare both soft- and hard-edges range (zone) targeting as well as asymmetric loss-functions to a quadratic loss case. The latter represents the standard loss-function for point inflation targeting. The res...
Using Chilean microeconomic data of stock-market traded firms, this paper analyzes the importance of liquidity (cash flow) in firm's investment decisions. Contrary to what the classical theory predicts -only projects profitability matters for investment decisions- and in line with modem corporate finance theory in which internal and external funds...
Using Chilean microeconomic data of stock-market traded firms, this paper analyzes the importance of cash flows in firms investment decisions. Contrary to what the classical theory predicts -only projects profitability matters for investment decisions- a
The paper presents the Model for Analysis and Simulations (MAS), a new dynamic stochas-tic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Chilean economy. Model's parameters are jointly estimated using a Bayesian approach. We study the properties of the model by analyzing some impulse-responses to different shocks and we provide a recount of the historic...
estudios/dtbc. Existe la posibilidad de solicitar una copia impresa con un costo de $500 si es dentro de Chile y US$12 si es para fuera de Chile. Las solicitudes se pueden hacer por fax: (56-2) 6702231 o a través de correo electrónico: bcch@bcentral.cl.studies/workingpaper. Printed versions can be ordered individually for US$12 per copy (for orders...
The inflation targeting process relies heavily on the use of macroeconomic models. In those models the central bank behavior is usually described by a simple policy instrument, the so called Taylor-type rule. In its simpler version the rule is such that the policy instrument (the interest rate) responds only to inflation and to the output gap. As n...
In this paper we explore the channels through which the terms of trade affect labor market variables in an emerging economy such as Chile. In doing so, we analyze the cyclical properties of labor market variables and use a structural vector autoregressive model to analyze the empirical responses of variables such as unemployment rate, job finding r...
Conocer las fricciones que están presentes en la economía es de fundamental importancia para el diseño de políticas. En particular, las rigideces de precios y salarios determinan el grado de tradeoff entre la estabilización del producto o de la inflación que enfrentan los bancos centrales. En este contexto, el principal objetivo de este estudio es...
El artículo analiza los ciclos económicos en las economías emergentes generados por errores de percepción respecto de la productividad futura. Utilizando un modelo DSGE para economía pequeña y abierta, se demuestra que las noticias que no se materializan respecto de mejoras de productividad futuras (exceso de optimismo) generan ciclos de auge y caí...
El artículo utiliza un modelo dinámico de equilibrio general (DSGE), para estudiar qué factores determinan los movimientos de la cuenta corriente en Chile y Nueva Zelanda, dos economías abiertas y pequeñas con exportaciones intensivas en recursos naturales. La estimación del modelo muestra que los shocks específicos a la inversión, cambios en las c...