Juan Ignacio Peña

University Carlos III de Madrid | UC3M · Department of Business Administration

The decarbonization strategy of the electricity sector relies on renewable energy. However, increasing renewables gives cannibalization and depredation effects. Cannibalization appears when increasing penetration of renewables undermines their own market remuneration. Depredation arises when increased renewable penetration undermines the market rem...

This paper studies the forward premium as a liquidity premium in electricity futures markets as determined by producers and retailers’ demand for immediacy.

We compare the five major sources of corporate Credit Default Swap prices: GFI, Fenics, Reuters, CMA, and Markit, using the most liquid single name 5-year CDS in the iTraxx and CDX indexes from 2004 to 2010. Deviations from the common trend among prices in the different databases are not random but are explained by idiosyncratic factors, financing...

We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of infrequent and extreme events. Using data on the four sectors of the U.S. financial industry from 1996 to 2011,...

Foreign exchange and credit derivatives increase the bank's contributions to systemic risk. Interest rate derivatives decrease it. The proportion of non-performing loans over total loans and the leverage ratio have stronger impact on systemic risk than derivatives holdings.

This paper proposes a new measure of tail risk spillover. The empirical application provides evidence of significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from the financial sector to many real economy sectors in the U.S. economy in the period from 2001 to 2011. These spillovers increase in crisis periods. The conditional coexceedance in a given sect...

This paper studies the investment decision of the Spanish households using a unique data set, the Spanish Survey of Household Finance (EFF). We propose a theoretical model in which households, given a fixed investment in housing, allocate their net wealth across bank time deposits, stocks, and mortgage. Besides considering housing as an indivisible...

This paper studies the realizability and compatibility of the three CEP2020 targets, focusing on electricity prices. We study the impact of renewables and other fundamental determinants on wholesale and household retail electricity prices in ten EU countries from 2008 to 2016. Increases in production from renewables decrease wholesale electricity p...

We study time-zero efficiency of electricity derivatives markets. By time-zero efficiency is meant a sequence of prices of derivatives contracts having the same underlying asset but different times to maturity which implies that prices comply with a set of efficiency conditions that prevent profitable time-zero arbitrage opportunities. We investiga...

This paper studies premiums got by winning bidders in default supply auctions, and speculation and hedging activities in power derivatives markets in dates near auctions. Data includes fifty-six auction prices from 2007 to 2013, those of CESUR in the Spanish OMEL electricity market, and those of Basic Generation Service auctions (PJM-BGS) in New Je...

This paper compares the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of several models for computing the tail risk of one-month and one-year electricity futures contracts traded in the NordPool, French, German, and Spanish markets in 2008-2017. As measures of tail risk, we use the one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES). With V...

This paper compares the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of several models for computing the tail risk of one-month and one-year electricity futures contracts traded in the NordPool, French, German, and Spanish markets in 2008–2017. As measures of tail risk, we use the one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES). With V...

This paper studies the realizability and compatibility of the three CEP2020 targets, focusing on electricity prices. We study the impact of renewables and other fundamental determinants on wholesale and household retail electricity prices in ten EU countries from 2008 to 2016. Increases in production from renewables decrease wholesale electricity p...

This paper studies premiums got by winning bidders in default supply auctions, and speculation and hedging activities in power derivatives markets in dates near auctions. Data includes fifty-six auction prices from 2007 to 2013, those of CESUR in the Spanish OMEL electricity market, and those of Basic Generation Service auctions (PJM-BGS) in New Je...

We examine whether the source of debt financing is important for assessments of firms' default risk. This study reveals that during the 2007–2010 financial crisis, firms that depend mainly on financing from banks suffer higher increases in default risk than do firms with no such dependence. Conversely, firms that rely solely on financing from publi...

We study time-zero efficiency of electricity derivatives markets. By time-zero efficiency is meant a sequence of prices of derivatives contracts having the same underlying asset but different times to maturity which implies that prices comply with a set of efficiency conditions that prevent profitable time-zero arbitrage opportunities. We investiga...

This paper investigates tail risk spillovers from the financial sector to real economy firms in the United States and the United Kingdom from 2003 to 2011. We measure these spillovers by evaluating the number of joint occurrences of extreme negative returns in a nonfinancial firm conditional on an extreme negative return in the financial sector. Su...

We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of infrequent and extreme events. Using data on the four sectors of the US financial industry from 1996 to 2011, w...

We build a Real Options model to assess the importance of private provision and the impact of expropriation risk on investment timing, business values, governmental costs and social welfare. We consider two types of businesses (essential and non-essential) and two stages (operating businesses and investment opportunities) and answer questions regar...

We study the effect of rollover risk on the risk of default using a comprehensive database of U.S. industrial firms during 1986-2013. Dependence on bank financing is the key driver of the impact of rollover risk on default risk. Default risk and rollover risk present a significant positive relation in firms dependent on bank financing. In contrast,...

We present a tentative estimate of a common risk free rate for the Eurozone (EZ) countries from January 2004 to November 2009. In a first stage, we analyse the determinants of EZ sovereign yield spreads and find significant effects of the credit quality, macro, correlation, liquidity, and interaction variables. Based on these results we estimate th...

This article proposes a new measure of tail risk spillover: the conditional coexceedance (CCX), defined as the number of joint occurrences of extreme negative returns in an industry, conditional on an extreme negative return in the financial sector. The empirical application provides evidence of significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from...

This paper studies statistical arbitrage opportunities in credit derivatives markets using strategies combining Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Asset Swap Packages (ASP) by means of an improved statistical arbitrage test. Using four different databases (GFI, Reuters, CMA, and JP Morgan) from 2005 to 2009, we find persistent mispricings between the C...

We model systemic risk by including a common factor exposure to market-wide shocks and an exposure to tail dependence effects arising from linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically our model allows for the firm-specific impact of infrequent and extreme events. When a jump occurs, its impact is in the same direction for all firms (either po...

This paper studies the impact of the banks’ portfolio holdings of financial derivatives on the banks’ individual contribution to systemic risk over and above the effect of variables related to size, interconnectedness, substitutability, and other balance sheet information. Using a sample of 95 U.S. bank holding companies from 2002 to 2011, we compa...

This paper proposes a new measure of tail risk spillover, namely the conditional coexceedance which is the number of joint occurrences of extreme negative returns in an industry conditional on an extreme negative return in the financial sector. The empirical application provides evidence of significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from the f...

In this study we compare the five major sources of corporate Credit Default Swap prices: GFI, Fenics, Reuters, CMA, and Markit, using the most liquid single name 5-year CDS of the components of the leading market indexes, iTraxx and CDX for the period from 2004 to 2010. We find systematic differences between the data sets implying that deviations f...

This article analyzes the tail behavior of energy price risk using a multivariate approach, in which the exposure to energy markets is given by a portfolio of oil, gas, coal, and electricity. To accommodate various dependence and tail decay patterns, this study models energy returns using different generalized hyperbolic conditional distributions a...

We hypothesize and find empirical evidence that two structural constraints of the industry are informative in the corporate failure prediction, industry concentration and dependence on customers and suppliers. Using an extensive database on corporate failures and bankruptcies in the U.S. market from 1998 to 2009 we find that the probabilities of fa...

This article investigates the portfolio selection problem of an investor with three-moment preferences taking positions in commodity futures. To model the asset returns, we propose a conditional asymmetric t copula with skewed and fat-tailed marginal distributions, such that we can capture the impact on optimal portfolios of time-varying moments, s...

This paper provides new evidence on the dynamic dependences of European corporate credit spread in three markets: Bond, Credit Default Swap (CDS), and Asset Swap (ASP). Using daily data from 2005 to 2009, we find that credit spread returns are primarily driven by innovations. The intra-market dependence during the current crisis decreases for bond...

This study presents robust empirical evidence suggesting the existence of significant liquidity commonalities in the corporate Credit Default Swap (CDS) market. Using daily data for 438 firms from 25 countries in the period 2005-2012 we find that these commonalities vary over time, being stronger in periods in which the global, counterparty, and fu...

This paper estimates and compares two groups of high-frequency market-based systemic risk measures from 2004 to 2009 using European and US data of interbank rates, stock prices and credit derivatives both at aggregate market level as well as the individual bank level. The former group of measures gauges the overall tension in the financial sector w...

We analyse the extent to which prices in the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and bond markets reflect the same information on credit risk in the context of the European Monetary Union. The empirical analysis is based on the theoretical equivalence relation that should hold between the CDS and bond spreads in a frictionless environment. We first...

This article analyses the evolution of electricity prices in deregulated markets. We present a general class of models that simultaneously takes into account several factors: seasonality, mean reversion, GARCH behaviour and time-dependent jumps. The models are applied to daily equilibrium spot prices of eight electricity markets. Eight different ne...

This paper analyses the role of liquidity in the price discovery process. Specifically, we focus on the credit derivatives markets in the context of the subprime crisis. We present a theoretical price discovery model for the asset swap packages (ASPs), bond and credit default swap (CDS) markets and then we test the model with data from 2005 to 2009...

We hypothesize and find empirical evidence that two structural constraints of the industry are informative in the corporate failure prediction, industry concentration and dependence on customers and suppliers. Using an extensive database on corporate failures and bankruptcies in U.S. market from 1998 to 2009 we find that the probabilities of failur...

This paper presents a procedure for computing the theoretically optimal portfolio under the assumption that housing is an indivisible, illiquid asset that restricts the portfolio choice decision. The analysis also includes the financial constraints households may face when they apply for external funding. The set of financial assets that constitute...

This paper presents a new statistical arbitrage test which has lower Type I error and selects arbitrage opportunities with lower downside risk than existing alternatives. The test is applied to credit derivatives markets using strategies combining Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Asset Swaps. Using four different databases (GFI, Reuters, CMA and JP M...

This paper analyzes possible arbitrage opportunities in credit derivatives markets using self-…nancing strategies combining Credit Default Swaps and Asset Swaps Packages. We present a new statistical arbitrage test based on the subsampling methodo-logy which has lower Type I error and selects arbitrage opportunities with lower downside risk than ex...

We present a tentative estimate of a common risk free rate for the European Monetary Union countries from January 2004 to December 2010 using variables motivated by a theoretical portfolio selection model. In a first stage, we analyze the determinants of EMU sovereign yield spreads and find significant effects of the credit quality, macro, correlat...

This paper explores the dynamic relationship between stock market implied credit spreads, CDS spreads, and bond spreads. A general VECM representation is proposed for changes in the three credit spread measures which accounts for zero, one, or two independent cointegration equations, depending on the evidence provided by any particular company. Emp...

A common European bond would yield a common European Monetary Union risk free rate. We present tentative estimates of this common risk free for the European Monetary Union countries from 2004 to 2009 using variables motivated by a theoretical portfolio selection model. First, we analyze the determinants of EMU sovereign yield spreads and find signi...

Standard models of moral hazard predict a negative relationship between risk and incentives; however, empirical studies on mutual funds present mixed results. In this article, we propose a behavioral principal-agent model in the context of professional managers, focusing on active and passive investment strategies. Using this general framework, we...

Most real world market participants are professional portfolio managers (PPM), which means that they are not managing their own money, but rather managing money for other people (e.g. mutual funds, pension funds). This situation generates an agency feature which has relevant consequences, as investors lacking specialized knowledge may evaluate the...

This paper presents a model linking two financial markets (stocks and bonds) with real business cycle, in the framework of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model with Generalized Isoelastic Preferences. Besides interest rate term spread, the model includes a new variable to forecast economic activity: stock market term spread. This is the slop...

The objective of this paper is twofold. The first is to incorporate mental accounting, loss aversion, asymmetric risk-taking behavior, and probability weighting in a multi-period portfolio optimization for individual investors. While these behavioral biases have previously been identified in the literature, their overall impact during the determina...

Recent literature has advocated that risk-taking behavior is influenced by prior monetary gains and losses. On one hand, after perceiving monetary gains, people are willing to take more risk (house-money effect). Another stream of the literature, based on prospect theory and loss aversion, suggests that people are risk averse/seeking in the gain/lo...

We use a laboratory experiment to study the extent to which investors’ choices are affected by limited loss deduction in income taxation. We first compare investment behavior in the no tax baseline to a tax control setting, in which the income from investments is taxed. We find that investors significantly reduce their risk-taking as predicted by t...

The aim of this article is 2-fold: first to test the adequacy of Pareto distributions to describe the tail of financial returns in emerging and developed markets, and second to study the possible correlation between stock market indices observed returns and return's extreme distributional characteristics measured by Value at Risk and Expected Short...

Chen, Cheng, Fabozzi and Liu [Chen, Ren-Raw, Cheng, Xiaolin, Fabozzi, Frank, Liu, Bo, 2008. An explicit, multi- factor credit default swap pricing model with correlated factors. J. Financial Quantitative Anal. 43 (1), 123-160] provide an explicit solution to the value of the credit default swap when the interest rate and the hazard rate are correla...

I modify the uniform-price auction rules in allowing the seller to ration bidders. This allows me to provide a strategic foundation for underpricing when the seller has an interest in ownership dispersion. Moreover, many of the so-called "collusive-seeming" equilibria disappear.

Many firms choose to refinance their debt. We investigate the long run effects of this extended practice on credit ratings and credit spreads. We find that debt refinancing generates systematic rating downgrades unless a minimum firm value growth is observed. Deviations from this growth path imply asymmetric results: A lower value growth generates...

This paper examines whether a general equilibrium asset pricing model can explain two important empirical regularities of asset returns, extensively documented in the literature: (i) returns can be predicted by a set of macro variables, and (ii) returns are very volatile. We derive a closed-form solution for the equilibrium asset pricing model that...

This paper introduces the concept of "refinancing contract". Its design appears as an alternative to the classical assumption of new equity issued to finance the payment of corporate debt. Dividend rates, maturities, and nominal debt payments, are modeled as part of the contract. We also describe credit spreads and debt risk as a function of the fi...

I. Riesgo de mercado -- 1. El concepto de valor de riesgo (VaR) -- 2. Medida y modelización del VaR -- 3. El VaR de los instrumentos básicos -- 4. Predicción de los elementos del VaR -- 5. Enfoques alternativos para el cálculo del VaR -- 6. Limitaciones del VaR tradicional -- 7. Enfoques alternativos -- 8. Extensiones: riesgo de liquidez --- II. Ri...

This paper investigates the intraday price volatility process in four Australian wholesale electricity markets; namely New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. The data set consists of half-hourly electricity prices and demand volumes over the period January 1, 2002 to June 1, 2003. A range of processes including GARCH, RiskMetric...

Given the evidence provided by Longstaff (1995), and Peña, Rubio and Serna (1999) a serious candidate to explain the pronounced pattern of volatility estimates across exercise prices might be related to liquidity costs. Using all calls and puts transacted between 16:00 and 16:45 on the Spanish IBEX‐35 index futures from January 1994 to October 1998...

Given the evidence provided by Longstaff (1995), and Pena, Rubio and Serna (1999) a serious candidate to explain the pronounced pattern of volatility estimates across exercise prices might be related to liquidity costs. Using all calls and puts transacted between 16:00 and 16:45 on the Spanish IBEX-35 index futures from January 1994 to October 1998...

We report simple regressions and Granger causality tests in order to understand the pattern of implied volatilities across exercise prices. We employ all calls and puts transacted between 16:00 and 16:45 on the Spanish IBEX-35 index from January 1994 to April 1996. Transaction costs, proxied by the bid–ask spread, seem to be a key determinant of th...

In this paper we have studied the ability of relatively standard equilibrium asset pricing models to explain two important empirical regularities of asset returns extensively documented in the literature: i) returns can be predicted by a set of macro variables; and ii) returns are very volatile. Those empirical regularities are relevant because the...

This paper measures the share price returns to Spanish takeover targets over the period 1990 to 1994. Using several estimation and testing methods, we show that target shareholders gain significant abnormal returns in the announcement period. In the first part of the year before the announcement period, firms that become targets do not show signifi...

In this paper we study the dynamic behavior of the term structure of Interbank interest rates and the pricing of options on interest rate sensitive securities. We posit a generalized single factor model with jumps to take into account external influences in the market. Daily data is used to test for jump effects. Qualitative examination of the link...

International financial integration effects on the Spanish stock market are studied, both for the conditional mean and conditional variance. New institutional regulations in Spain are taken into account and their efficiency consequences are addressed. Results suggest an increasing international integration but nontrivial opportunities for financial...

ChownJohn F.: A History of Money from AD 800, Routledge, Londres & Nueva York, 1994. - Volume 13 Issue 2 - J. Ignacio Peña

The effects of Spanish Stock Exchange Reform on the seasonal patterns of daily stock excess returns are addressed. Before the Reform, positive abnormal average Monday excess returns are found. Possible causes are discussed and related with clearing and trading mechanisms. After the Reform daily seasonal effects disappear, suggesting an increase in...

ESTE trabajo presenta alguno de los más recientes avances desarrollados en el área de modelización de la volatilidad de datos financieros. Se discuten los nuevos modelos para la modelización estadística del riesgo financiero, mediante los modelos GARCH y sus extensiones. Finalmente se presentan las consecuencias que la utilización de estos modelos...

KindlebergerCharles P.: Manias, Panics and Crashes. A History of Financial Crisis. 2.a edition. Londres. MacMillan. 1989, 302 páginas - Volume 10 Issue 3 - J. Ignacio Peña

Este trabajo se ocupa de las consecuencias que la presencia de contratación asincrona (

This article surveys the economic literature on mergers and spinoffs. There are two opposed views of the nature or mergers and spinoffs depending on wether the efficiency offinancial markets is assumed or noto We present the main ideas in both views ofthe issue and discuss its consistency with the empirical evidence.

Este trabajo investiga la influencia de los cambios de precios diarios de los principales mercados bursátiles, sobre la bolsa de Madrid, a partir de la implantación en la misma del Mercado continuo. Se emplea un modelo VAR con los cinco principales mercados (New York, Tokio, Londres, Frankfurt y París) y Madrid, cada uno de ellos representado por í...

Este trabajo presenta algunos de los más recientes avances rea1izados en el área de modelización estadística de datos financieros. Se discuten los nuevos modelos desarrollados para la media condicional de los rendimientos de un activo financiero, con especial referencia a los modelos de cambio de régimen. A continuación se exponen los nuevos método...

The relationship between the Dow-Jones Index returns and Madrid Stock Index returns is observed. Using daily data for the period 1988-1989 significant effect are found, being the Dow-Jones Index returns a leading indicator for Madrid returns condicional mean. The effects are asymmetric: negative changes in the Dow-Jones Index returns have twice the...

This work studies homogeneity problems. and in particular ARMA model changes. in time series. For a given time series a multiple component model is proposed. Each component can encompass changes in ARMA model. changes in noise variance or both, as well as more general non-homogeneous behaviour. A modelling procedure is proposed and illustrated by m...

This work focuses on the study of the most important West Europe oil market: Rotterdam. The analysis is presented from two viewpoints: first, describing the market' s structural aspects, and second building statistical models for the main products price series using multiple arma models.

En el presente trabajo se detalla el estudio de la demanda agregada de tres derivados del petróleo en el mercado español. Se adopta un enfoque de series temporales y se proponen modelos dinámicos para tratar los datos. Se construyen modelos ARIMA univariantes y funciones de transferencia con objeto de recoger los rasgos más destacados de la demanda...

Este trabajo describe las principales características generales de las subastas de capacidad virtual y las particularidades de su aplicación al mercado español como emisiones primarias de energía. Se analizan los resultados de la valoración de los precios de las opciones proporcionados por las subastas, de las cuales se realizaron siete ediciones....

This paper analyzes possible arbitrage opportunities in credit derivatives markets using self-…nancing strategies combining Credit Default Swaps and Asset Swaps Packages. We present a new statistical arbitrage test based on the subsampling methodo- logy which has lower Type I error than existing alternatives. Using four dierent databases covering t...

This note addresses some microstructure consequences of the Spanish Stock Exchange Reform on measures of systematic risk of daily asset returns. The Reform modified the trading system, clearing and settlement procedures among other changes. This note focuses on how these events affected systematic risk measures and autocorrelations in a sample of s...

This paper presents a factor model to compute the distribution function of the returns given by a portfolio of debt instruments with default risk for a given time horizon. The model is particularly useful for the study of the most extreme quartiles of the credit loss distribution. The relationship of this model with the Copulas formulation is given...