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Juan M. Hernández

Juan M. Hernández
University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Institute of Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development (TIDES) · Quantitative Methods in Economics

PhD
University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

About

73
Publications
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Introduction
Currently, my main research interest is on complex networks theory, in particular, but not exclusive, its application to socioeconomic phenomena, such as tourism and fishery economics.

Publications

Publications (73)
Article
This paper analyses the determinants of tourist length of stay in sharing accommodation. Methodologically, the paper proposes a new approach to account for the observed bimodality of length of stay. More specifically, the determinants of length of stay are analyzed by modeling both the conditional mean and conditional modal frequencies, which repre...
Article
Full-text available
This paper analyses whether peer-to-peer (P2P) accommodation substitutes traditional accommodation, taking into account dynamic and spatial spillover effects. We also analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis on the demand and substitution effect. To do this, we use a spatial dynamic panel data demand model for occupancy rates related to p...
Article
Mathematical representation of the growth of organisms in aquaculture systems is a key factor to perform optimal production. Here, we analysed five growth sigmoidal models based on density of previous and current models described in literature (Gompertz, Bertalanffy, Potential and Pütter). These models were fitted to data of Pacific white shrimp cu...
Article
Full-text available
Many countries worldwide rely on tourism for their economic well-being and development. But with issues such as over-tourism and environmental degradation looming large, there is a pressing need to determine a way forward in a sustainable and mutually rewarding manner. With this motivation, we here propose an asymmetric evolutionary game with mobil...
Chapter
This paper analyses the image that European tourists have about a destination (Canary Islands), in order to identify keywords that describe the tourist destination through the free elicitation methodology. A Computer-Aided Web Interview (CAWI) was used to conduct the research in 19 European countries, where through the free elicitation methodology,...
Article
Full-text available
The spread of COVID-19 and ensuing containment measures have accentuated the profound interdependence among nations or regions. This has been particularly evident in tourism, one of the sectors most affected by uncoordinated mobility restrictions. The impact of this interdependence on the tendency to adopt less or more restrictive measures is hard...
Article
Full-text available
Accommodation services oriented to different tourist segments usually have different price determinants. Thus, in multi-facet destinations such as large regions or cities, it should be possible to find and describe the underlying types of tourism in the destination by using a price determinant analysis. In this paper, a methodology based on stepwis...
Preprint
Full-text available
The spread of COVID-19 and ensuing containment measures have accentuated the profound interdependence among nations or regions. This has been particularly evident in tourism, one of the sectors most affected by uncoordinated mobility restrictions. The impact of this interdependence on the tendency to adopt less or more restrictive measures is hard...
Article
This paper presents a computational evolutionary game model to study and understand fraud dynamics in the consumption tax system. Players are cooperators if they correctly declare their value added tax (VAT), and are defectors otherwise. Each player's payoff is influenced by the amount evaded and the subjective probability of being inspected by tax...
Article
Full-text available
The current COVID-19 pandemic has impacted millions of people and the global economy. Tourism has been one the most affected economic sectors because of the mobility restrictions established by governments and uncoordinated actions from origin and destination regions. The coordination of restrictions and reopening policies could help control the sp...
Preprint
Full-text available
This paper presents a computational evolutionary game model to study and understand fraud dynamics in the consumption tax system. Players are cooperators if they correctly declare their value added tax (VAT), and are defectors otherwise. Each player's payoff is influenced by the amount evaded and the subjective probability of being inspected by tax...
Article
Full-text available
Efficient detection of incorrectly filed tax returns is one of the main tasks of tax agencies. Value added tax (VAT) legislation requires buyers and sellers to communicate any exchanges that exceed a certain amount. Both statements should coincide, but sometimes the seller/buyer and its counterpart declare different amounts. This paper presents a m...
Article
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Large destinations such as cities usually offer multiple and diverse attractions, a selection of which will be visited by tourists during their stay. This study analyses the factors influencing the probability of the co-occurrence of visits to attractions in the city of Madrid (Spain). On the basis of five years (2013–2018) of user-generated data,...
Article
Full-text available
Many regions and countries seek to develop their tourism industry as a strategy for economic growth. A growing body of research supports the hypothesis of tourism-led growth. This paper contributes to the existing literature in two ways. First, it proposes a new mechanism for sustained tourism-led growth, emphasising the crucial importance of the m...
Article
Full-text available
Peer-to-peer accommodation has grown significantly during the last decades, supported, in part, by digital platforms. These websites make available a wide range of information intended to help the customers’ decision. All these factors, in addition to the property location, may therefore influence rental price. This paper proposes different procedu...
Article
Full-text available
Quantifying the interdisciplinarity of a research is a relevant problem in the evaluative bibliometrics. The concept of interdisciplinarity is ambiguous and multidimensional. Thus, different measures of interdisciplinarity have been propose in the literature. However, few studies have proposed interdisciplinary metrics without previously defining c...
Article
Full-text available
This study aims to construct a theoretical framework to analyze the elements of the network structure and the relationship system within the seafood supply chain. The scope of the investigation is to evaluate how these elements influence the flow of products and the efficiency of the seafood supply chain and why these social interactions can create...
Preprint
Full-text available
Quantifying the interdisciplinarity of a research is a relevant problem in the evaluative bibliometrics. The concept of interdisciplinarity is ambiguous and multidimensional. Thus, different measures of interdisciplinarity have been propose in the literature. However, few studies have proposed interdisciplinary metrics without previously defining c...
Article
Fish producers are facing high costs of food which rank between 30-60% out of total production costs. Optimal ration sizes are needed to improve management strategy by integrating technical-economic efficiency and minimizing environmental impacts. In contrast with the usual feeding practices in a farm and others consisting on normalized constant ra...
Article
Full-text available
This paper analyses the relationship between air pollution and tourism demand in Beijing. The study method is based on a gravity model, in which air quality variables are incorporated into the model of tourism demand. The results obtained show that air pollution has a negative influence on tourism flows and that this effect is more pronounced for i...
Article
Full-text available
Several studies have shown that the performance of a supply chain is heavily influenced by the pattern of relationships among firms. This paper analyzes the structure of relationships (network topology) that leads to the highest agility of a food supply chain when sudden demand changes occur. To do this, a simulation model that represents a supply...
Article
Many regions and countries seek to develop their tourism industry as a strategy foreconomic growth. A growing body of research supports the hypothesis of tourism-led growth. This paper contributes to the existing literature in two ways. First, itproposes a new mechanism for sustained tourism-led growth, emphasising the crucialimportance of the mark...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper we address the problem of clustering tourist attractions according to the tourists' interests that these attractions serve. With growing diversity of tourist interests, there is a new understanding of tourist clustering as formed by multiple proximity metrics with the social distance of the tourists playing a role similar to geographi...
Article
Full-text available
This paper analyses the use of the main e-tourism platforms by European tourists. A computer-aided Web interview (CAWI) was used to conduct the research in 19 European countries: Germany, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Holland, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, Luxemburg, Czech Republic, and...
Article
The study contributes to the tourism literature by demonstrating an approach to segmenting tourists using network analysis with user-generated content. Online reviews of destination attractions are considered as a proxy for visitation data reflective of tourists’ interests. The connectivity between attractions is represented with a network of links...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Currently, there are few bio-economic studies applied to genetic programs of Atlantic salmon. The goal of this study was to estimate the economic weights and relative importance of the most important traits associated with Atlantic salmon production: harvest weight, Salmon Rickettsial Syndrome (SRS) resistance, fillet pigment content, infestation r...
Article
Full-text available
The control and management of production factors have been of great economic interest for the aquaculture industry. In this study, the optimal harvesting time that maximizes the net benefits of shrimp cultured in freshwater was determined using a bioeconomic model fitted to six stocking density strategies (90, 130, 180, 230, 280 and 330 shrimp m⁻²)...
Article
Full-text available
The aim of this study is to identify spending patterns of tourists in relation to the leisure activities performed throughout their day-by-day stay at the destination. Using the methodology of social network analysis (SNA), a tourists–activities bipartite network was identified following a pattern known as core–periphery. The effect of this structu...
Article
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This work analyses the forces that drive the conversion of non-hotel tourist accommodation into residential use. For this purpose, a land use change model that considers spatial autocorrelation is proposed and applied to the tourist area of Maspalomas, in Gran Canaria, Spain, which has suffered an extraordinary process of residentialization in the...
Article
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Fish consumption in Mexico is considered low (around 12 kg per person per year) and non-homogeneously distributed across the country. One of the reasons for this situation is the scarcity of wholesale selling sites. In this context, the Mercado del Mar (MM), located in Guadalajara city, Jalisco, is the second biggest wholesale fish market in Mexico...
Article
Full-text available
Tourism is a complex dynamic system including multiple actors which are related each other composing an evolving social network. This paper presents a growing model that explains how part of the supply components in a tourism system forms a social network. Specifically, the lodgings and services in a destination are the network nodes and a link bet...
Article
Full-text available
The right performance of a supply chain depends on the pattern of relationships among firms. Although there is not a general consensus among researchers yet, many studies point that scale-free topologies, where few highly related firms are combined with many low-related firms, assure the highest efficiency of a supply chain. This paper studies the...
Article
Full-text available
Tourism is a complex dynamic system including multiple actors which are related each other composing an evolving social network. This paper presents a growing bipartite network model that explains the rise of the supply network in a tourism destination from the beginning phases of development. The nodes are the lodgings and services in a destinatio...
Article
Full-text available
In certain regions of Southern Europe, mature coastal resorts are currently coexisting with rural tourism areas several kilometers inland. This paper analyzes the inter-relationship of these two types of tourism and the conditions for sustaining both in Mediterranean destinations. To do so, common and uncommon characteristics of the tourist product...
Article
The evaluation of the environmental impact of aquaculture installations is nowadays a common social demand in many countries. The usual scientific approach to this question has been to assess the outcome from an ecological perspective, focussing on the effects produced on benthos or the water column and interactions with marine flora and fauna. In...
Article
Full-text available
Experiencing the context of a rural environment is the fundamental aspect of rural travel. In order to estimate quantitative influences of the rural environment, this paper proposes to proxy rurality through two indicators: isolation and remoteness. The estimation of a hedonic pricing model with the use of both Geographic Information Systems and sp...
Article
Full-text available
This article aims to identify the best management strategy for integrating technical-economic efficiency and ecological impact when a rural producer of Nile tilapia faces problems with fixed price and harvest size. A bioeconomic model was developed based on an experimental study of juvenile tilapia growth with three rations, as recommended by the f...
Article
Credit management (funding source with its specific interest rate, its timing, and amount) and its trade, affect feasibility of commercial shrimp farming. To analyze optimal trade credit management, an existing bioeconomic model of a semi-intensive shrimp farm (139 hectares with 44 earthen ponds) located in Sinaloa, Mexico, was extended to create a...
Article
The environmental characteristics compound one of the main attractions of the tourism developed in rural areas. In this line, this paper seeks to identify the most relevant environmental attributes valued by the rural tourism market in La Gomera Island, Spain. The geographic peculiarities (climate and landscape) of this island make it an exceptiona...
Article
This article analyses the optimal selection of stocking density and date in semi‐intensive culture of shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (Boone, 1931). The empirical evaluation of productive and economic scenarios derived from the specific choice of these management variables is often unfeasible for decision makers. To overcome this limitation, the bioeco...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents an endogenous growth model for a tourism economy that takes into account the particular interrelationships between natural and physical capital, the production of tourist services and environmental degradation. The model considers both infrastructure and environmental attributes as production factors, characterized by a predator...
Chapter
This paper presents a methodology to identify some factors influencing on the tourism market and not usually included in empirical analyses, such as those related to environment and location. The traditional quantitative analysis of spatially varying relationship assumes that the interdependence among variables measured at different locations is co...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents a dynamic model representing the interaction between a mass tourism resort and a nearby area dedicated to rural tourism. The hypotheses incorporated in this model assume that environmental values from both destinations influence tourists’ motivations for visiting one or the other area. The parameters used were calibrated to refl...
Article
Abstract This paper examines the question of optimal harvesting time in a size‐heterogeneous farmed aquatic population, using a model reflecting the effect of population density on both overall mortality rate and individual growth. This analysis enables an optimal harvesting rule to be deduced. The results obtained are applied to shrimp culture in...
Article
Full-text available
Size heterogeneity is a common phenomenon in aquaculture systems and influences final production and economic yield. Among other factors, this variability is determined by ration. These variables directly affect potential returns and therefore influence the recommendations made for optimum aquaculture system management. As part of the search for mo...
Article
Full-text available
The geographical characteristics of the site where a rural house is located determine its tourist affluence. By using a hedonic prices model, this paper estimates the influence of some spatial and environmental variables in the rental prices of rural houses in Gran Canaria, Spain. Geographic information systems (GIS) data are used to measure the ge...
Article
Full-text available
This paper analyzes the influence of the tourist’s perception of overcrowding on a destination’s appeal. To do so, the use of the population density estimates is suggested to measure degrees of overcrowding in a tourist area, which in this paper is undertaken using panel data analysis. A tourist demand model is estimated in the study case, which co...
Article
Integrated agricultural-aquaculture (IAA) systems involving tilapia culture have been promoted in Yucatan State, Mexico, as a way of producing fish protein and providing additional economic returns in poor rural areas. System productivity is sub-optimal due to lack of management skills, balanced feed (30% protein-content tilapia feed) shortages and...
Article
Full-text available
RESUMEN Este trabajo analiza la influencia de algunas características espaciales sobre los precios por noche de casas rurales en Gran Canaria. Se estimó para ello un modelo de precios hedónicos que incluye en su formulación ciertos atributos espaciales de la casa, tales como el número de vecinos en un radio determinado. Estas variables fueron calcu...
Article
Full-text available
English for Specific Purposes (ESP) and English for Academic Purposes (EAP) are two disciplines whose importance has been growing lately. This is due to the ever-increasing interest in the language that describes the most recent developments in varying disciplines and the need to communicate in and understand that language. One of the means for the...
Article
The sustainability of the aquaculture industry has recently been the object of social and scientific debate, due to the contamination caused by the culture to the surrounding environment. As a contribution to the debate, this paper analyses the effect of adopting a Pigovian tax to internalise the environmental costs on the optimal management of far...
Article
This paper analyzes the optimal harvesting time for husbanded biological assets consisting of individuals of different sizes. In contrast to previous works which include a random variable in the growth function, it is assumed that the heterogeneity is caused by differences in the initial sizes of the planted culture. Therefore, the evolution of the...
Article
The tourist product life cycle model predicts different stages of the evolution of the industry in a particular region, focusing on the number of tourists visiting over a period of time. In this paper, we consider the role of environmental degradation and the decline in natural capital as determinants of the tourist product life cycle and the impli...
Article
This paper presents a model of the interactions between natural resources and physical capital in the evolution of a tourist destination. The projected trajectory of the number of tourists approaches the classical lifecycle pattern. The post-stagnation phase is analyzed within the model, obtaining different patterns which depend on the impacts of p...
Article
This paper analyses the influence of the water temperature over the optimal management of aquaculture farms. A fish growth model is presented and included in a general profit optimisation framework. Results reveal a positive influence of the average water temperature over the optimal harvesting time. The optimal ration size exhibits an uneven path...
Article
Tilapia culture in rural communities in the state of Yucatan, Mexico, has been increasing in recent decades. Polyculture of tilapia with other more commercially valuable species provides an opportunity to substantially improve the economic yields of rural producers. The economic viability of implementing Nile tilapia with Australian redclaw crayfis...
Article
Full-text available
This study examines the impact of water temperature on the optimal management of the ration size and fish weight in off-shore farm aquaculture. A model for the expected returns of the farm is developed which includes a fish growth function influenced by fish weight, the ration size and water temperature. The output transportation cost has an ambigu...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents a model of the interactions between natural resources and physical capital in the evolution of a tourist destination. The projected trajectory of the number of tourists approaches the classical lifecycle pattern. The post-stagnation phase is analyzed within the model, obtaining different patterns which depend on the impacts of p...
Article
Full-text available
Tilapia culture in rural communities of the state of Yucatan, Mexico, has been increasing in recent decades. Polyculture of tilapia with other more commercially valuable species is an opportunity to substantially improve the economic yields of rural producers. The economic viability of implementing a Nile tilapia with Australian redclaw crayfish po...
Article
This paper presents a growth model for gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), which is one of the most culture species in the Mediterranean area. The model is designed by means of stochastic differential equations, and is based on previous research for other species [Modélisation de la Croissance des Poissons en Élevage, 1990]. Fish growth is assumed t...
Article
For decades, research and development efforts have focused on fish cultivation in floating cages. Despite this focus, and the considerable private and public sector resources invested in these systems, there is a scarcity of economic data derived from the great number of variables present in these systems. A reliable way of generating economic stud...
Article
Full-text available
El trabajo presenta un modelo de optimización dinámica aplicado a la gestión de un sistema de cultivo de la dorada en la región mediterránea española y canaria. El modelo incluye una función de crecimiento ajustada a partir de datos reales de cultivo de la especie. Las variables económicas incorporan las peculiaridades de ambas regiones, siendo el...
Article
This paper develops a bioeconomic model to evaluate the production of gilthead sea bream in floating cages based on two locations, the Canary Islands and the Mediterranean. The model includes four sub-models: biologic, environment, production management, and economic. The biologic sub-model contains a growth model based on this species physiology....
Conference Paper
This paper presents an age-structured control model applied to the size variability problem in fish farming. This phenomenon is common in commercial culture due to the principal of competition among individuals in ecosystems with high density. The usual consequences are higher differences in fish growth, together with an increase in mortality rate...
Article
La acuicultura es una industria en continua expansion, representando una alternativa a los limitados recursos pesqueros. En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo bioeconomico para la produccion de dorada, la cual es una de las especies con mayor potencial de mercado. El modelo incorpora un submodelo biologico de crecimiento, que relaciona el crecimi...
Article
This paper studies cost minimization decisions by utilizing a simple bioeconomic model for gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata). This model is based on a biological growth model which accounts for the effects of temperature and ration size. Although the implicit production function derived from the growth model is shown to be quasiconcave, it is not h...
Thesis
Full-text available
Esta Tesis estudia y amplía modelos que explican el acoplamiento y sincronización entre los ciclos económicos presentados hasta la fecha. Tal sincronización es lo que permite la emergencia de comportamientos cíclicos en la economía en su conjunto. En particular, la Tesis realiza las siguientes aportaciones: 1) Estudio analítico del modelo desagrega...
Article
Full-text available
Ecotourism is a viable alternative for the development of regions and countries with a strong natural resource base. Sustainable development involves the compatibility of the growth in the number of tourists and the preservation of ecologically valuable natural resources. This paper focuses on the relationships between environmental degradation and...
Article
Full-text available
The tourist product lifecycle model predicts different stages of the evolution of the industry by focusing on the number of tourists visiting a particular region over a period of time. In this paper we consider the role of environmental degradation and the decline in natural capital as determinants of the tourist lifecycle and their implications fo...

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