Juan Gabriel Brida

Universidad de la República de Uruguay | UdelaR · Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos

This paper introduces a new method to describe and analyse multidimensional time series based on wavelets. The methodology considers the time series as observations of a functional random variable. The paper generalizes previous research on stock market networks by including asset returns and volume trading as the main variables to study the financ...

Purpose From these data, the authors construct an uncertainty index through the use of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to measure the impact of uncertainty on GDP, controlling for inflation, which may affect macroeconomic performance. Results indicate that uncertainty is negatively correlated with the economic cycle and the inter-annual variati...

This paper introduces a dynamic threshold-minimum dominating set to represent the structure and evolution of relative prices in the economy. Due to the dynamic nature of the links between prices, the construction of a dynamic synthetic index is also proposed, and its properties and components are studied. The empirical results allow us to identify...

This paper discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism destinations in Uruguay by exploring travel behavior. Through a survey carried out between DEC2020 and JAN2021, the study reveals that despite the pandemic, the desire for holiday tourism remained. The empirical results show that, despite the fact that the vast majority have a high...

This study models the relative expenditure of tourists in terms of budget allocation according to their dependence on a group of covariates. A model that captures how tourist distributes its budget among the diverse items is introduced to characterize and compare different types of tourists according to their relative expenditure patterns. For the...

El presente trabajo estudia la relación entre la incertidumbre macroeconómica y el comportamiento del sistema de precios de la economía uruguaya, utilizando el análisis de redes para representar al sistema de precios que componen el Índice de Precios del Consumo (IPC). Se construyeron redes utilizando ventanas móviles anuales entre 1997 y 2020, tom...

ABSTRACT: Understanding and predicting the inflationary phenomenon is a central problem for economists and decision-makers. Traditionally, time series econometric techniques have been used to study this phenomenon; but can complexity economics provide a complementary vision to previous studies? This work seeks to study the dynamics of the price str...

This article analyzes how the preferences of tourists for types of resorts, crowding types of tourists, and the pricing strategies of the resorts interact to determine the occupancy rate, price, and distribution of welfare in the market of resorts. The model captures the process of acquisition of information of the consumers for making the choice o...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic relationship between economic growth and CO 2 emissions for a set of 98 countries over the lengthy period from 1951 to 2014. We describe the topology and hierarchy of countries and introduce a different concept of economic performance based on the idea of dynamic regimes. These regimes are defined by...

Since the first agent-based models (ABM), the scientific community has been interested in making not only the results of computational models understandable but also the modeling description, to facilitate their replication. The form that has been adopted to a greater extent has been the ODD (Overview, Design concepts, and Details) protocol, which...

This work addresses the spread of the coronavirus through a non-parametric approach, with the aim of identifying communities of countries based on how similar their evolution of the disease is. The analysis focuses on the number of daily new COVID-19 cases per ten thousand people during a period covering at least 250 days after the confirmation of...

This paper discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sun & beach tourism in Uruguay by exploring the perceptions of domestic tourists. On the basis of a survey carried out at the early beginning of summer holidays in South America, the study reveals that the desire for a vacation of the respondents has remained, despite the pandemic. The maj...

This study explores the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic by comparing the time series of active cases per population of 191 countries. Data from "Our World in Data are examined, and Minimal Spanning Trees and a Hierarchical Trees are used to detect groups of countries that share similar performance on dynamics of coronavirus spread. Three main clu...

Este estudio analiza la eficiencia técnica en términos de innovación de las empresas del sector servicios en la economía uruguaya. Para ello, se utilizan los datos provenientes de la Encuesta de Actividades de Innovación 2010-2012 de la Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación (ANII). En una primera etapa, se estima el nivel de eficiencia de...

Using the inter-regional economic inequality index and the Gross State Product per capita for the Mexican States over the period 1940-2015, we apply regime dynamics and hierarchical cluster analysis for segmenting the sample into regimes of Mexican states with similar performance. Robust econometric models are studied showing the direction of causa...

Since the growing interest in the study of the dynamics of tourism and its implications for economic growth, this paper explores the Latin America and the Caribbean case. From the economic regimes’ conception and time series symbolization, we perform a cluster analysis and a posterior causality relationship estimation between economic growth and to...

This work addresses the spread of the coronavirus through a non-parametric approach, with the aim of identifying communities of countries based on how similar their evolution of the disease is. The analysis focuses on the number of daily new COVID-19 cases per ten thousand people during a period covering at least 250 days after the confirmation of...

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission is directly linked with energy usage and plays an essential role in the debate on sustainable tourism development and environmental protection. Some authors argue that tourism faces the problem of being “addicted” to growth, which is incompatible with sustainable goals. The literature shows that the environmental Kuzne...

This paper reformulates and generalizes the classical Uzawa-Lucas model of economic growth and human capital accumulation by representing time as a discrete variable and using a population law with non-constant growth rate. In addition, the model is developed by using a more general utility function than the original. In this setup, the model can b...

A través de un Modelo Basado en Agentes (ABM) analizamos el crecimiento económico en dos economías simuladas, cuya única diferencia es el diseño del impuesto al ingreso personal: proporcional y progresivo. En el diseño progresivo, los ingresos se dividen en un primer tramo gravado a tasa cero y otro gravado a tasa positiva. No se advierten diferenc...

El objetivo de este trabajo es medir la contribución del turismo al crecimiento económico de la ciudad de Medellín para el periodo 2005-2015. Inicialmente, las diferentes ramas características del sector turístico se identifican en las cuentas locales del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), luego se mide la contribución del turismo al crecimiento económi...

This paper studies the dynamics of economic growth and tourism evolution for 80 countries during the period 1995–2016. The variables representing economic and tourism growth are growth rates of per capita GDP and international tourist arrivals per inhabitant respectively. Using the concept of economic regime, the paper introduces a notion of distan...

The aim of this article is to introduce a multivariate statistical model that represents the expenditure of tourists disaggregated by categories. The model is applied to study the distribution of the expenditure of cruise passengers in Uruguay, using data of the 2016-2017 cruise season survey (collected by the Ministry of Tourism). Given the mixed...

Abstract: Since the first agent-based models (ABM), the scientific community has been interested in making not only the results of computational models understandable but also the modeling description, to facilitate their replication. The form that has been adopted to a greater extent has been the ODD (Overview, Design concepts, and Details) protoc...

In recent months, the world has suffered from the appearance of a new strain of coronavirus, causing the COVID-19 pandemic. There are great scientific efforts to find new treatments and vaccines, at the same time that governments, companies, and individuals have taken a series of actions in response to this pandemic. These efforts seek to decrease...

Abstract: This paper studies the dynamics of the formation of inflation expectations in small and open economies, based on an agent-based model (ABM). Agents are assumed to have a limited rationality to adapt their strategies over time and to have difficulty at perceiving the signals from the Central Bank (CB). The CB tries to achieve a target infl...

This book attempts to overcome past research negligence by focusing exclusively on tourism development, planning and impacts in a wide range of Latin American countries. It aims to widen the documentation and understanding of tourism in the sub-region in the English literature. The book has ten chapters, eight of them dealing with tourism developme...

This paper generalizes the classical model of determination of production prices for two commodities by introducing a dynamics generated by the possibility that the profit rate can be computed using prices of different stages. In this theoretical framework, the prices show a codependency between the two sectors, given by the rate of profit, and int...

In this work, we study the decision-making processes of heterogeneous agents, who take decisions regarding their individual preferences as well as their attempt to conform. Under the assumptions of certain topologies of interactions and with cognitive and informational restrictions, we analyze the evolution of these decisions over time with an agen...

This study explores the dynamic relationship between income inequality and economic growth by using a non-parametric approach and numerical taxonomy as a research method based on data symbolization and clustering methods. The study uses annual data of the GINI index (considering two databases, i.e. the Standardized World Income Inequality Database...

This study contributes to the literature on the determinants of tourism spending on cruises at a microeconomic level, through the application of innovative methodologies framed within the machine learning literature. The objective is to study the distribution of the total expenditure of cruise passengers in Uruguay, using data of the 2016–2017 crui...

This paper analyzes the decision-making processes of heterogeneous agents, when both individual preferences and group actions are taken into account. Under the assumptions of certain topologies of interactions and assuming cognitive and informational restrictions, an agent-based model is introduced to analyze the evolution of decisions over time. T...

This study introduces a dynamic agent‐based model to represent the evolution of the choice of destinations by tourists. The model assumes that this choice depends on their personal tastes (characterized by their preferences for goods and services) and certain characteristics of other tourists (called crowding types), on the degree of inertia of the...

Este trabajo estudia la relación a largo plazo entre la desigualdad de ingresos y el crecimiento económico en Uruguay, un país latinoamericano de altos ingresos. Con este fin, se aplican técnicas de cointegración mediante el uso de test y datos no paramétricos para el período de 1986 a 2014. La linealidad de la relación se prueba previamente a la e...

This paper investigates the effects in the long-term between air transportation and the economic growth in Uruguay and Argentina. Employing annual data from 1970 to 2011, the study uses cointegration analysis to consider the existence of a long-run relation between real GDP and the number of air passengers in each country. Results show that for bot...

This article presents a mathematical approach to exchange rates dynamics. Following a post Keynesian approach for exchange rate determination, we develop a model where the dynamics are driven by expectations. The model is capable of producing a rich variety of dynamic behaviors, whose complexity is characterized by using the entropy measure. It is...

En Uruguay, como ocurre en otros países latinoamericanos, el turismo de cruceros ha aumentado su importancia como generador de divisas. Con el objetivo de contribuir a la planificación de los programas turísticos e intensificar dicha tendencia, en este trabajo se analizan los distintos determinantes del gasto de cruceristas en los puertos de desemb...

Different solutions for the integration of high-speed rail (HSR) and air transport could be implemented, ranging from very basic integration to more sophisticated systems that include ticket and handling integration. This paper uses two statistical techniques, name cluster analysis and discrete choice models in order to investigate how different ma...

Este trabajo analiza la contribución directa del turismo al crecimiento económico mediante una expansión de la metodología propuesta por Ivanov y Webster (2007) utilizando datos de la Cuenta Satélite de Turismo para 2012-2013. Dicha expansión permite desagregar al sector turístico en sus diferentes ramas características y medir la contribución indi...

The present paper investigates the determinants of tourists' expenditure by categorizing tourists based on their mental budgets. Individuals can be divided into three categories based on the difference between their mental budget and actual expenditure: underspenders, on-budget spenders, and overspenders. Estimation of the empirical model is perfor...

In this study, we explore the dynamic relationship between public debt and economic growth by using a non-parametric approach based on data symbolization and clustering methods. The study uses annual data of general government consolidated gross debt-to-GDP ratio and gross domestic product for sixteen countries between 1977 and 2015. Using symbolic...

El principal objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la contribución del turismo al crecimiento económico en América Central y un grupo de países del Caribe (Bahamas, Dominica, República Dominicana y Santa Lucia). Utilizando una metodología recientemente presentada por Ivanov and Webster (2007), este trabajo utiliza la tasa de crecimiento del Producto...

One of the most revised and discussed topics on Tourism Economics are the way in which the tourism industry contributes to both growth and development of the economy of a country. In a seminal work, Ivanov and Webster (2007) came up with a methodology to measure the contribution of tourism to the economic growth that uses per capita GDP growth rate...

The Christmas market in Meran (Italy) is one of the top 27 European Christmas markets, attracting around 2000 visitors a day for 50 days. The Christmas market is a cultural and retail event that creates a recreational value for visitors. This paper, using the travel cost method, estimates the recreational use value of the Meran Christmas market for...

Museum attendance is often seen as a chance for visitors to learn and thus increase their cultural capital. However, a share of the visitors may decide to attend museums for reasons other than cultural capital accumulation. This article investigates whether learning process takes place also in the case of tourists whose main motivation for the visi...

Tourism statistics are key sources of information for economic planners, tourism researchers, and operators. Still, several cases of data inadequacy and inaccuracy are reported in literature. The aim of this article is to propose a methodology useful to improve tourism statistics: a modified version of the Coarsened Exact Matching. The methodologic...

This paper reformulates the classical Razin model of economic growth and human capital accumulation by representing time as a discrete variable. In addition, the model is developed in a more general framework of the Ramsey neoclassical model of optimal economic growth. The study examines the optimal trajectories in human and physical capital and co...

This paper analyses the determinants of flows of domestic tourism in Uruguay in the context of an extended gravity model during the period 2010-2012. This analysis is done at a disaggregated level, considering the bilateral flows between two regions (department) of the country, one as source of tourism and the other as the destination. Gravity mode...

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between Mexican air transport expansion and economic growth. To this end, non-parametric cointegration techniques and non-parametric causality tests are introduced and applied to quarterly data of GDP and number of air passengers in Mexico for the period 1995-2013. These procedures allow to test the exis...

The increase of passengers and flights require airports operators invest in improving the comfort for users. In this regard, Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) represent one of the key issues to take into account. This paper aims to assess service quality in an airport environment and examining how ICTs services affect passenger's pe...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine museum visitors’ experience. The objective of the research is to explore preferences, behaviour, overall. This study experience and the determinants on repeated visits to two heritage sites. In particular, a more comprehensive regression approach is introduced and employed to compare results at two...

This article investigates whether the implementation of funded pension schemes globally has prompted the development of domestic capital markets worldwide, considering 31 pension schemes over the period of 1990-2011. The methodological strategy relies upon panel data regressions applied to depth and liquidity indicators of stock and bond markets. T...

The aim of this study is to examine cruise passengers' characteristics, preferences and their overall experience in a port of call. Based on 1,361 survey data collected from passengers in the port of call of Cartagena, during the third quarter of 2009, a three-step multivariate market segment analysis is employed. First, a correspondence analysis i...

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between the degree of internationalization (DOI) and economic performance (P) in Spanish hotel firms. A longitudinal dataset for the period 2000–2013 measuring the variables DOI and P has been used to conduct a FGLS cross-section time-series regression analysis. The results pinpointed an inverted U-shape...

Since 1995 the four MERCOSUR countries have gone through the path of economic integration; however, they have dissimilar situations in terms of economic growth and, particularly, in the degree of development of the tourism sector. Brida et al. (2015) analyzed the validity of the Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) for these countries and demonstra...

This study applies network analysis to analyze the structure of the Euro Stoxx market during the long period from 2002 up to 2014. The paper generalizes previous research on stock market networks by including asset returns and volume trading as the main variables to study the financial market. A multidimensional generalization of the minimal spanni...

Some recent empirical contributions have highlighted that tourists often go to museums yet appear to extract little utility from the experience. We argue that this is often the case with agents who visit museums only while on holiday and results from a temporary lack of substitute experience goods or compliance with a must-do list. If such agents b...

Purpose – This paper aims provides an empirical analysis of the development of the internationalisation process in the Spanish hotel industry, which has experienced major changes during the past decade. The degree of internationalisation between 2000 and 2010 is used as a proxy variable with the aim of mapping the development of international strat...

Tourism statistics are key sources of information for economic planners, tourism researchers and operators. Still, several cases of data inadequacy and inaccuracy are reported in literature. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology useful to improve tourism statistics: a modified version of the Coarsened Exact Matching. The methodological...

One of the main concerns of tourism managers lies in stimulating tourists' spending at their destinations. Numerous studies investigating the determinants of tourists' expenditure limit their investigation to the actual expenditure of tourists. This paper extends the existing literature on tourists' spending by introducing mental accounts theory. M...

The aim of this work is to analyze the regional Spanish growth dynamic from 1955 to 2009. In so doing we introduce two different metrics which permit to compare the economic performance of the Spanish regions based on the temporal series correlation and distance from a dynamic systems framework. By applying a non parametric method to these metrics...

This paper extends the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model of optimal capital accumulation in discrete time by introducing a generic population growth law that satisfies the following properties: population is strictly increasing and bounded, and the population growth rate is decreasing to zero as time tends to infinity. We show that the optimization...

This study applies network analysis to analyze the structure of the Euro Stoxx market during the long period from 2002 up to 2014. The paper generalizes previous research on stock market networks by including asset returns and volume trading as the main variables to study the financial market. A multidimensional generalization of the minimal spanni...

Over 10 years have passed since the first paper on the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) was published in 2002. Since then, a wave of studies has appeared trying to understand the temporal relationship between tourism and economic growth. Hence, it is possible to provide an assessment in terms of econometric methods used and main empirical findi...

Passengers disembarking from cruise ships at ports of call have significant economic effects on the host destination. This paper studies the determinants of cruise passengers' spending while visiting two ports in Uruguay. Data from an official survey are used to investigate the likely determinants of expenditure in the 2011–2012 cruise season. The...

En este trabajo se presenta un modelo en el que se analiza cómo la preferencia por el futuro afecta la inversión según una actividad particular (turismo) basada en los recursos naturales. Bajo el supuesto de valores extremos de preferencia, es posible verificar que sistemas con alta impaciencia (preferencia por el consumo presente) plantean una tas...

This study presents a theoretical and operational framework for analysing repeat visit to museums. Starting from the literature on repeat visit in tourism, the specificities of these cultural attractions are made explicit through a review of theoretical and applied works. Consistently with previous contributors, the paper suggests that the analysis...

Market segmentation in tourism makes use of sets of powerful analytical tools for the sake of planning and managing demand-oriented policies. This paper contributes to this strand of literature by segmenting tourists visiting a cultural event. We utilize the Bagged Clustering method, a combination of traditional partitioning and hierarchical techni...