Juan de Lucio- PhD
- Economist at University of Alcalá
Juan de Lucio
- PhD
- Economist at University of Alcalá
About
65
Publications
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823
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Introduction
Juan de Lucio currently works at Universidad de Alcalá
Research on International Economics, forecast with neural networks, Natural Language Procesing, Political Economy and Regional Economics.
Current institution
Additional affiliations
September 2016 - present
September 2015 - present
September 2015 - present
Publications
Publications (65)
This paper studies the positiveness in most consumed songs during a period of sadness, worry and uncertainty: the COVID-19 crisis in comparison with previous years. In order to perform the analysis, we create an original positive music indicator using a dataset of weekly patterns for music consumption in 31 OECD countries over a five year period. R...
We examined the role of top exporters in sub-national export specialization using Spanish firm-level export data at the province (NUTS 3) level. Our results show that, on average, 28% of aggregate exports in each province are in sectors where the top exporter determines the revealed comparative advantage (RCA). Moreover, provinces with sectors wher...
We use Spanish firm-level data over the period 1998-2018 to examine the importance of the top exporter in terms of NUTS III (provincial) exports. We find that: (1) the top exporter in each province represents about one fifth of total exports per year; (2) firms contribute to export growth whilst on their way towards the top position but once the la...
Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the disruption of supply chains has become a major concern for global firms. This paper uses a representative sample of Spanish manufacturers that participate in global value chains to analyze whether firms are implementing strategies to respond to this concern. Using data for the period 2017-2022, we fi...
Blockchain technologies have demonstrated the potential to build decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols that are composable and interoperable. One of the envisioned applications of blockchains is that of becoming a platform for markets of greenhouse-gas emissions. KlimaDAO is one of the recently launched protocols that attempts to bridge existing v...
This paper studies the influence of macroeconomic conditions on subjective well-being and music preferences. The macroeconomic cycle exerts an effect on happiness and well-being that consumers counterbalance by modifying music consumption. We use machine learning techniques to make a weekly classification of the top 100 songs of Billboard Hot 100 i...
Combining Spanish firm-level monthly trade data with country-level Covid-19 containment measures over February–July 2020, we show that the value of exports decreased more in destinations that introduced strict containment measures, whereas the value of imports remained unaffected. Strict containment measures in a partner country increased the proba...
Different public agencies are seeking to draft “better regulation”. Complex or poorly drafted norms are more difficult for economic agents to implement, tending to erode economic efficiency. The literature has so far concentrated on the analysis of regulatory complexity as a phenomenon related to the “quantity” of norms. This article guides the pro...
This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade flows using a state-of-the-art gravity model of trade. Using the monthly trade data of 68 countries exporting across 222 destinations between January 2019 and October 2020, our results are threefold. First, we find a greater negative impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade for those countr...
[ESP//ENG]
El trabajo analiza el sentimiento de las letras de las canciones más exitosas semanalmente durante el periodo 1958-2020 con el propósito de captar el sentir social a lo largo del tiempo. Observamos que el conjunto de información recogido por las letras difiere de aquél que se refiere a la música, lo que nos indica que las letras aportan...
La participación ciudadana y el uso de las nuevas tecnologías impulsan la mejora en la calidad y trasparencia de los gobiernos de las ciudades. En primer lugar, el trabajo se centra en analizar las ventajas e inconvenientes que ofrece la participación ciudadana en el contexto de las metrópolis inteligentes. En segundo lugar, se proporciona un model...
La participación ciudadana y el uso de las nuevas tecnologías impulsan la mejora en la calidad y trasparencia de los gobiernos de las ciudades. En primer lugar, el trabajo se centra en analizar las ventajas e inconvenientes que ofrece la participación ciudadana en el contexto de las metrópolis inteligentes. En segundo lugar, se proporciona un model...
El trabajo incorpora las técnicas de Inteligencia Artificial a las herramientas disponibles para el análisis de coyuntura regional. Se compara las estimaciones realizadas con Redes Neuronales (en concreto, mediante la utilización de redes con larga memoria de corto plazo, LSTM por sus siglas en inglés) con los instrumentos más habituales en el anál...
Las técnicas de procesamiento del lenguaje natural permiten aproximaciones rigurosas y replicables que facilitan el análisis del contenido publicado en las revistas académicas. En este documento se emplean para analizar la temática tratada y la legibilidad de los documentos publicados en Información Comercial Española (Boletín, Cuadernos y Revista)...
Utilizando datos de empresas manufactureras exportadoras españolas, este trabajo investiga si la presencia de empresas que exportan de forma regular un producto a un país ayuda a otras empresas en la misma provincia que empiezan a exportar a mantener relaciones de exportación más duraderas. Nuestros resultados muestran que: (i) la tasa de supervive...
This paper analyses the contribution of fundamental comparative advantage (a country‐specific component) and granular comparative advantage (a firm‐specific component) to European Union countries' export specialisation. We find that, on average, granular comparative advantage may explain export specialisation in 29% of industries, which account for...
Using a large sample of export transactions in Spain over the period 2010–2017, we explore whether firms treat export markets as substitutes, complements, or independent. We find that an exogenous change in revenue in a firm’s top export destination does not change its revenue in other destinations. A firm does not have either a larger probability...
Using the universe of Spanish export transactions over 2000–2012, this paper explores empirically whether the choice of destinations among experienced and new exporters is affected by the number and performance of previous exporters in those destinations. The regression analysis shows that new exporters benefit more from information spillovers than...
Las relaciones comerciales de carácter transnacional y la formulación de los acuerdos comerciales que configuran las mismas, constituyen piezas clave en la estrategia geopolítica de los países. Si bien la articulación de la influencia geopolítica a través del comercio no es algo nuevo, sí lo es la creciente incorporación de cláusulas no comerciales...
Después de la Gran Recesión de 2008-2009, la evolución de las exportaciones españolas ha sido positiva. Algunos analistas atribuyen este comportamiento al incremento de la base exportadora. Para validar esta hipótesis, realizamos una descomposición del crecimiento de las exportaciones españolas por márgenes en el periodo 1997-2015. Los datos muestr...
The severe reduction in domestic demand between 2008 and 2013 in Spain led many firms to start exporting. We explore whether the increase in the new crisis-induced exporters led to a larger number of regular exporters once domestic demand returned to pre-crisis levels. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that a 10% increase in new expo...
This paper analyzes whether top exporters follow a cost-based or a quality-based strategy. Using Spanish firm-level export data for 2016, we show that firms that set lower export prices have larger export revenues. We also find that exporters obtain larger revenues from their low-price products than from their high-price products. Some results sugg...
Using firm-level export data for the 2010–2014 period, we investigate the variation of export prices across and within Spanish manufacturing firms. We find that more productive firms set higher export prices. However, this result is not robust to controlling for other firm-level characteristics and alternative productivity measures. We show that fi...
This paper uses transaction-level trade data to analyze the differences in export prices across and within Spanish firms exporting manufactures in the 2010–2014 period. The transactional nature of the database uncovers sizable differences in the price that an exporter charges for the same product and destination. These differences are related with...
Using data for all exporters, we show that it is a small group of firms that dominate exports in Spain. For example, in 2015 the top 200 firms were responsible for half of Spanish exports. This concentration has not changed substantially over the 1997–2015 period. The dominance of a few firms, a phenomenon denoted as granularity, also defines the s...
We use network analysis tools to identify communities in the web of exporters' destinations. Our network-based community measure is purely outcome based, it captures multilateral rather than bilateral dependence across countries, and it can be calculated at the industry level. Next, we use our network-based community measure as predictor of additio...
We use network-analysis tools to identify communities in the web of exporters' destinations. Our network-based community measure is purely outcome-based; it captures multilateral rather than bilateral dependence across countries; and it can be calculated at the industry level. We next use our network-based community measure as a predictor of additi...
The literature shows that new exporters have small levels of exports relative to regular exporters upon entry, and, if they survive, they have very high export growth rates between the entry year and the next year. However, these empirical facts might be biased by the partial year effect: firms that start to export late during the year have a lower...
The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of moral judgment, both collective and individual, on the acquisition of counterfeit goods. A second objective is to identify to what extent the purchase intention of counterfeits is useful as an indicator of the final decision to buy these products.
The results show that more severe moral judgment in...
El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el efecto que tiene el juicio moral, tanto colectivo como individual, en la adquisición de productos falsificados. Un segundo objetivo es identificar en qué medida la intención de compra de falsificaciones es útil como indicador de la decisión final de compra de estos productos. Los resultados muestran que un...
Recent empirical research highlights that differences in trade flows across countries, products and years are governed by two margins: the intensive margin and the extensive margin. The analysis of the relative contribution of each margin is very important to determine which policies can be more efficient to foster trade at the aggregate, geographi...
La globalización constituye el nuevo contexto para las relaciones económicas internacionales durante el último cuarto de siglo. La empresa es la protagonista de este nuevo entorno para el desarrollo de la actividad económica. Sin embargo, la información y análisis disponible sobre las relaciones económicas internacionales ha estado caracterizado tr...
Sme group represents more than 99 % of the business fabric in Spain. The current context of globalization and recent international crisis changes the configuration of the competitive advantages of companies. This paper remarks some innovative aspects of the importance and status of the smes in the Spanish economy using business demographic data. Th...
Es imprescindible para los agentes económicos manejar datos que permitan anticipar la evolución futura de la economía. En una coyuntura como la actual, esta necesidad resulta más patente. La información y la capacidad de anticipación y de establecer escenarios de contingencia son vitales para la correcta toma de decisiones en un entorno caracteriza...
Este trabajo analiza y descompone las fuentes de crecimiento del comercio exterior de la economía española durante el periodo 1998-2005 utilizando datos de empresa desagregados por países y productos. Se muestra que el incremento de exportaciones e importaciones ha estado fuertemente sustentado en un crecimiento sostenido del número de empresas con...
Desde la perspectiva del tamaño en función del número de empleados, este trabajo proporciona una visión microeconómica de la empresa que comercia con el exterior. Las variables utilizadas son: volumen de comercio (exportación e importación), regularidad en sus intercambios exteriores, cifra de negocio, comunidad autónoma, sector, forma societaria,...
El conocimiento de la estructura y demografía de la empresa española internacionalizada es escaso e irregular; a pesar de la importancia de la perspectiva microeconómica para comprender completamente el comportamiento agregado del sector exterior. A partir de la información del Departamento de Aduanas e Impuestos Especiales, es posible profundizar...
This paper provides evidence of the positive impact of economic integration on EU regions' business cycles convergence by focusing on two neighbouring countries: Spain and Portugal. We show that while a rise in cross-country business cycle correlation has also been experienced by other European countries, it has been relatively more pronounced for...
[eng] Transportation costs and monopoly location in presence of regional disparities. . This article aims at analysing the impact of the level of transportation costs on the location choice of a monopolist. We consider two asymmetric regions. The heterogeneity of space lies in both regional incomes and population sizes: the first region is endowed...
We examine whether the spread of an exporting strategy can be characterized as a diffusion process using a general framework that accounts for attrition and changes in the pool of potential adopters and allows the diffusion rate to vary according to firm and market characteristics. Our findings indicate that the diffusion of exporting is described...
The paper discusses the role of externalities in promoting industrial growth in Spanish regions. We try to identify whether the so-called dynamic externalities (technological spillovers) come from outside the industry (Jacobs type externalities) or whether they are generated between firms inside the industry (Marshall–Arrow–Romer or MAR type extern...
Este trabajo muestra que España y Portugal han experimentado un fuerte proceso de integración durante el último cuarto del siglo XX. La mayor coordinación de las economías ha derivado en una mayor correlación cíclica entre las regiones de los dos países. De los análisis realizados cabe concluir que el «efecto frontera» ha disminuido sustancialmente...
In this paper, we test for causality between GDP growth and social protection expenditure in the European Union. To that end, we apply Hsiao's (1981) sequential procedure to data for twelve EU countries along the 1970-94 period. Our results suggest that, for Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain, causality runs...
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the knowledge external effects deriving from a territory's sectorial composition. Firstly it discusses a theoretical model that allows an endogenous derivation of the externalities related indexes. It then describes the results of a join estimation of the whole model and its regional and sectorial breakdow...
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the knowledge external effects deriving from a territory's sectorial composition. Firstly it discusses a theoretical model that allows an endogenous derivation of the externalities related indexes. It then describes the results of a join estimation of the whole model and its regional and sectorial breakdow...
Using a harmonized data set for the European Union and panel data techniques, and following a production function approach, we find a positive growth effect of total social protection expenditure on growth. When evaluating the effects of different programmes, the results are mixed.
This paper contrast the existence of different regional effects of an homogeneous monetary policy and study the local characteristics that underlie these differential responses. To this purpose I use regional data and estimate a structural vector autoregression model (VAR) to characterize the different regional responses. Afterwards I use the estim...
We consider an economy where the production technology has constant returns to scale but where in the descentralized equilibrium there are aggregate increasing returns to scale. The result follows from a positive contracting externality among firms. If a firms is surrounded by more firms, employees have more opportunities outside their own firm. Th...
This paper examines the degree of convergence in social protection in the European Union during the 1970-99 period. To that end, we use Eurostat data and study the long-run properties of the data set applying time series analysis. Our results indicate that there is no evidence of long-run convergence in social protection expenditure to GDP ratios....
[eng] Transportation costs and monopoly location in presence of regional disparities. . This article aims at analysing the impact of the level of transportation costs on the location choice of a monopolist. We consider two asymmetric regions. The heterogeneity of space lies in both regional incomes and population sizes: the first region is endowed...
This paper examines the degree of convergence in social protection registered in the European Union during the 1970-99 period. To that end, we use Eurostat data and study the long-run properties of the data set using time series analysis. Our results indicate that there is no evidence of long-run convergence in Social Protection expenditure to GDP...
In this paper we examine Australian data on national and regional employment numbers, focusing in particular on whether there have been common national and regional changes in the volatility of employment. A subsidiary objective is to assess whether the results derived from traditional growth rate models are sustained when alternative filtering met...
This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection a...
