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Josué M. Polanco-Martínez

Josué M. Polanco-Martínez
Univesidad de Salamanca · GECOS

PhD

About

86
Publications
32,461
Reads
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665
Citations
Introduction
Josué holds a B.Sc in Atmospheric Sciences (University of Veracruz, Mexico) a D.Sc. in Engineering Physics University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU. He has worked at the Dpt. of Econometrics and Statistics & IEP (UPV/EHU), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC (Italy), Basque Centre for Climate Change - BC3 (Spain), Basque Gov. Postdoctoral Fellow at BC3 & UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC (France). He is accredited by ANECA & is member of the Mexican National Researcher System (Level 1).
Additional affiliations
February 2019 - February 2020
Universidad del País Vasco / Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea
Position
  • Research Associate
February 2016 - January 2019
BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change
Position
  • PostDoc Position
February 2016 - April 2018
Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC) - UMR CNRS 5805, U. de Bordeaux.
Position
  • PostDoc Position
Education
May 2005 - April 2012
Universidad del País Vasco / Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea
Field of study
  • Engineering physics (applied): climatology applied
September 1997 - June 2003
Universidad Veracruzana
Field of study
  • Atmospheric Sciences

Publications

Publications (86)
Article
Full-text available
El periodograma suavizado de Lomb-Scargle es una técnica de análisis espectral que se aplica de modo directo a series temporales no equiespaciadas. Aunque derivado originalmente para operar con series temporales astronómicas no equiespaciadas temporalmente [2, 17, 38, 39], a finales de los noventa fue adaptado por Schulz y Stattegger [43] en combin...
Article
Full-text available
En este artículo se presenta una concisa revisión de una de las herramientas más utilizadas en el proce-samiento de señales, el análisis espectral de wavelet mediante la transformada continua de wavelet para los casos uni-y bi-variados. Esta herramienta es sumamenteútil para analizar cualquier tipo de datos que no sean estacionarios, esto es, aquel...
Article
Full-text available
We present new high‐resolution absolute‐dated stalagmite δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C records from Alabama, southeastern United States (SE US), spanning the last 12 thousand years (ka). A local relationship between annual rainfall amount and its amount‐weighed δ¹⁸O composition exists on interannual timescales, driven mostly by an amount effect during summer and s...
Article
[A personalized URL providing 50 days' free access to your article. Anyone clicking on this link before October 16, 2021 will be taken directly to the final version of your article on ScienceDirect, which they are welcome to read or download. No sign up, registration or fees are required: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1defA3Ao5y1J3] This paper an...
Article
Full-text available
We provide a non-parametric computing-intensive method to test the statistical significance of the rolling window correlation for bi-variate time series. This method (test) addresses the effects due to the multiple testing (inflation of the Type I error) when the statistical significance is estimated for the rolling window correlation coefficients....
Article
Full-text available
Los isótopos estables obtenidos de muestras fosilizadas de macrofósiles, como los belemnites, son unos de los pocos registros geológicos existentes del Jurásico Inferior, por lo cual han sido usados para reconstrucciones de temperaturas y salinidades del océano de esa época. Sin embargo, hasta la fecha no han sido utilizados para averiguar si estos...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Estimates and plots (as a heat map) the statistical significance of rolling window correlation coefficients, which is carried out through a non-parametric computing-intensive method. This method addresses the effects due to the multiple testing (inflation of the Type I error) when the statistical significance is estimated for the rolling window cor...
Poster
Full-text available
Analyzing the relationship between two or more ecological linear or non-linear time series or between an ecological one and one or more environmental time series is a challenging task, as these variables and/or their relationships may change over time [8, 11]. These changes over time might mean that correlations estimated with methods that do not t...
Preprint
Full-text available
We present new high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite δ ¹⁸ O and δ ¹³ C records from the southeastern United States (SE US) spanning the last 12 thousand years (ka). A local relationship between annual rainfall amount and its amount-weighed δ ¹⁸ O composition exists on interannual timescales, driven mostly by an amount effect during summer and s...
Preprint
Full-text available
We present new high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite δ ¹⁸ O and δ ¹³ C records from the southeastern United States (SE US) spanning the last 12 thousand years (ka). A local relationship between annual rainfall amount and its amount-weighed δ ¹⁸ O composition exists on interannual timescales, driven mostly by an amount effect during summer and s...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Set of functions that improves the graphical presentations of the functions: wave.correlation and spin.correlation (waveslim package , Whitcher 2012) and the wave.multiple.correlation and wave.multiple.cross.correlation (wavemul-cor package, Fernandez-Macho 2012b). The plot outputs (heatmaps) can be displayed in the screen or can be saved as PNG or...
Presentation
Full-text available
La correlación múltiple local de wavelet (WLMC) se introduce por primera vez para el estudio de la dinámica del clima, la cual es inferida mediante series temporales climáticas multivariadas (Polanco-Martínez et al. 2020). Para ejemplificar el uso de la WLMC con datos climáticos reales, se analizan las relaciones entre cuatro variables climáticas d...
Article
Full-text available
The wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) is introduced for the first time in the study of climate dynamics inferred from multivariate climate time series. To exemplify the use of WLMC with real climate data, we analyse Last Millennium (LM) relationships among several large-scale reconstructed climate variables characterizing North Atlantic: i....
Article
Full-text available
RolWinMulCor estimates the rolling window correlation for bi-and multi-variate cases between regular time series , with particular emphasis on ecological data. It is based on the concept of rolling, running or sliding window correlation, being useful for evaluating the evolution and stability of correlation over time. RolWinMulCor contains six func...
Article
Worldwide increases in droughts- and heat-waves-associated tree mortality events are destabilizing the future of many forests and the ecosystem services they provide. Along with climate, understanding the impact of the legacies of past forest management is key to better explain current responses of different tree species to climate change. We studi...
Article
Full-text available
Late Quaternary volcanic basins are active landscapes from which detailed archives of past climate and seismic and volcanic activity can be obtained. A multidisciplinary study performed on a transect of sediment cores was used to reconstruct the depositional evolution of the high-elevation Laguna del Maule (LdM) (36∘ S, 2180 m a.s.l., Chilean Andes...
Code
Rolling Window Multiple Correlation ('RolWinMulCor') estimates the rolling (running) window correlation for the bi- and multi-variate cases between regular (sampled on identical time points) time series, with especial emphasis to environmental data (although this can be applied to other kinds of data sets). 'RolWinMulCor' is based on the concept of...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Late Quaternary volcanic basins are active landscapes from which detailed archives of past climate, seismic and volcanic activity can be obtained. A multidisciplinary study performed on a transect of sediment cores was used to reconstruct the depositional evolution of the high-elevation Laguna del Maule (LdM) (36° S, 2180 m asl, Chilean A...
Article
Full-text available
This paper proposes an operationally simple and easily generalizable methodology to incorporate climate change damage uncertainty into Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). First uncertainty is transformed into a risk measure by extracting damage distribution means and variances from an ensemble of socio economic and climate change scenarios. Then a...
Poster
Full-text available
This work proposes the use of a novel multivariate, dynamic approach-wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) (Fernández-Macho, 2018)-to analyse the relationship between energy time series in the timescale domain. This approach is suitable for use with any kind of data that change over time and involve heterogeneous agents who make decisions acros...
Article
Full-text available
This paper seeks to investigate the dynamic relationship between daily stock market indices in NAFTA countries from 8 November 1991 to 16 March 2018, using for the first time nonlinear, nonparametric, non-stationary methods. We apply two novel nonlinear, nonparametric, non-stationary dynamic correlation techniques—rolling window Spearman correlatio...
Presentation
Full-text available
Dynamic relationship analysis between NAFTA stock markets through statistical signal processing methods: The aim of this work is to analyse dynamically the relationships between the three main NAFTA daily stock market indices over the 08/11/1991 – 16/03/2018 period, focusing on the pre-2008, 2008 and post-2008 crisis periods. We propose the combi...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents a computational program named BINCOR (BINned CORrelation) for estimating the correlation between two unevenly spaced time series. This program is also applicable to the situation of two evenly spaced time series not on the same time grid. BINCOR is based on a novel estimation approach proposed by Mudelsee (2010) for estimating t...
Article
Full-text available
The MIS 17 interglacial, ∼715-675 ka, marks the end of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition as intensified, long and asymmetrical 100-kyr ice age cycles became eminently established. Increasing arrival of moisture to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, resulting from the northwestward migration of the Subpolar Front and the intensification of the Nor...
Poster
Full-text available
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price shows high volatility and in 2014 and 2015 when quoted prices declined sharply, long-term prices in future markets were less volatile. These prices are different and diverge depending on how they process fundamental and transitory factors. US tight oil production has been a major innovation with signific...
Article
Full-text available
This paper proposes the use of a novel multivariate, dynamic approach-wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) (Fernández-Macho, 2018)-to analyse the relationship between oil time series in the timescale domain. This approach is suitable for use with energy data of any kind that change over time and involve heterogeneous agents who make decisions...
Article
Full-text available
Here we propose the permutation test –a non-parametric computing-intensive test– to evaluate the statistical significance of the Foster's wavelet spectrum by means of Monte Carlo simulations. A procedure (algorithm) is introduced in order to carry out this aim. The Foster's wavelet is an adequate method to cope directly with unevenly spaced paleocl...
Poster
Full-text available
We present a computational program named BINCOR (BINned CORrelation) to estimate the correlation between two unevenly spaced climate time series, which is based on a novel estimation approach proposed by 7. The idea is that autocorrelation (e.g., AR1) means memory, which allows to correlate values obtained on different time points. The binned corre...
Poster
Full-text available
This work presents an analysis of vulnerable peripheral EU (PIIGS) stock market indices and the S&P Europe 350 index (SPEURO), as a European benchmark market, over the pre-crisis (2004-2007) and crisis (2008-2011) periods. We computed a rolling-window wavelet correlation for the market returns and applied a non-linear Granger causality test to the...
Code
BICOR Estimate the correlation between two irregular time series that are not necessarily sampled on identical time points. This program is also applicable to the situation of two evenly spaced time series that are not on the same time grid. 'BINCOR' is based on a novel estimation approach proposed by Mudelsee (2010, 2014) to estimate the correlati...
Article
Full-text available
This data paper presents a reconstruction of a compilation of a small but consistent database of historical capture records of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus; BFT hereafter) from the Gibraltar Strait and Western Mediterranean (Portugal, Spain and Italy). The compilation come from diverse historical and documentary sources and span the time interval...
Article
Full-text available
During the last ice age temperature in the North Atlantic oscillated in cycles known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. The magnitude of Caribbean hydroclimate change associated with D-O variability and particularly with stadial intervals, remains poorly constrained by paleoclimate records. We present a 3.3 thousand-year long stalagmite δ¹⁸O recor...
Article
Full-text available
Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles dur...
Article
This paper proposes a methodology for quantifying benefits and costs of extensive green roofs as an urban strategy for adaptation to climate change. It seeks to highlight the consequences of threshold effects in the delivery of the benefits and non-linearity with respect to green roof coverage. The analysis focuses on energy savings for cooling, ca...
Article
Full-text available
We present a 7-ka environmental reconstruction based on sedimentological and geochemical data from Lago Vichuquén, a coastal eutrophic lake in central Chile (34°48′S, 72°03′ W, 4 m a.s.l.). A relatively shallow and restricted marine environment with low productivity, high detrital input and dominant anoxic conditions in the Vichuquén Basin occurred...
Article
Full-text available
Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles dur...
Article
Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is an important analogue for ongoing and projected global warming, yet key questions remain about the regional signature of its extreme orbital forcing and intra-interglacial variability. Based on a new direct land-sea comparison in SW Iberian margin IODP Site U1385 we examine the climatic variability between 1100 a...
Article
Full-text available
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price shows high volatility and in 2014 and 2015 when quoted prices declined sharply, long-term prices in future markets were less volatile. These prices are different and diverge depending on how they process fundamental and transitory factors. US tight oil production has been a major innovation with signific...
Poster
Full-text available
Historical capture records of bluefin tuna (BFT) from the Gibraltar Strait and Western Mediter- ranean show pronounced short- and long-term fluctuations. Some of these fluctuations are be- lieved to be associated with biological and ecological process, as well as distinct climate factors. For the period of study (1700–1936) of this work, we found a...
Poster
Full-text available
Here we propose the permutation test - a non-parametric computing-intensive test - to eval- uate the statistical significance of the Foster’s wavelet spectrum by means of Monte Carlo simulations. A procedure (algorithm) is introduced in order to carry out this aim. The Fos- ter’s wavelet is an adequate method to cope directly with unevenly spaced p...
Presentation
Full-text available
Las técnicas estadísticas han sido tradicionalmente utilizadas en el análisis de series temporales paleoclimáticas. Sin embargo, debido a la naturaleza propia de este tipo de series (e.g., contienen ruido, suelen ser cortas, no equiespaciadas, etc), los especialistas que las analizan han tenido que adaptar, implementar, incluso desarrollar ciertas...
Article
Full-text available
One of the most used statistical techniques in environmental sciences is the Princi- pal Component Analysis (PCA). This technique consists in a linear decomposition of a set of correlated variables in terms of orthogonal basis function, so that they reduce the number of variables and remove the correlation between them. The PCA is widely used in th...
Article
Full-text available
We examine the “tropical storm” hypothesis that precipitation variability in the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) was linked to the frequency of tropical cyclones during the demise of the Classic Maya civilization, in the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, A.D. 750-950). Evidence that supports the hypothesis includes: (1) a positive relationship between tropical...
Presentation
Full-text available
Overview 1 Motivation 2 The binned correlation method 3 Our main contribution: the BINCOR R package 4 Example: Historical coastal flooding in Yucatan Peninsula due to hurricanes and tropical storms 5 Final remarks and future work
Presentation
Full-text available
There are many evidences that socio-political conflicts, human pressure on environmental and climate forcing (e.g., climate change) were of the main mechanisms that triggered the disintegration of classical Maya civilization (750 - 950 A.D.) (Demarest et al., 2004; Gill, 2000; Hodell et al., 2005; Hodell et al., 1995; Medina-Elizalde et al., 2010;...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The marine ecosystem is permanently subjected to environmental variability affecting the main aspects of the population dynamics of fish stocks, such as recruitment, growth, mortality and interspecific relationships (Hawthorn, 2013). The local manifestation of these environmental variables produce severe changes in stocks and fisheries, causing inc...
Article
Full-text available
Uncertainties concerning fossil fuel resources availability have traditionally been deemphasized in climate change research as global baseline emission scenarios (i.e., scenarios that do not consider additional climate policies) have been built on the assumption of abundant fossil fuel resources for the 21st century. However, current estimates are...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
1 josue.polanco@bc3research.org, Basque Centre for Climate Change-BC3 2 dlee@bcamath.org, Basque Center for Applied Mathematics-BCAM One of the main approaches used to estimate the correlation between two environmental time series are the Pearson's and Spearman's correlation coefficients or the estimation of the cross-correlation function. This tas...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Documentation for the R package W2CWM2C. The W2CWM2C package is a set of functions that improves the graphical presentations of the functions 'wave.correlation' and 'spin.correlation' (waveslim package, Whitcher 2012) and the 'wave.multiple.correlation' and 'wave.multiple.cross.correlation' (wavemulcor package, Fernandez-Macho 2012b). The plot outp...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. I...
Data
R package W2CWM2C ver. 1.2. The version 1.0 is availabe at http://www.computer.org/csdl/mags/cs/preprint/06894486.pdf
Article
Full-text available
This article describes new graphical tools that help with the interpretation of wavelet correlation and cross-correlation analysis, in both bivariate and multivariate cases. The authors have created an R package called W2CWM2C with the following main functions: wavelet (cross) correlation and wavelet multiple (cross) correlation. To illustrate its...