Joseph Maina

Joseph Maina
The University of Queensland | UQ · ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions

About

87
Publications
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Publications

Publications (87)
Article
The global decline of coral reefs has led to calls for strategies that reconcile biodiversity conservation and fisheries benefits. Still, considerable gaps in our understanding of the spatial ecology of ecosystem services remain. We combined spatial information on larval dispersal networks and estimates of human pressure to test the importance of c...
Article
Full-text available
Complex histories of chronic and acute sea surface temperature (SST) stresses are expected to trigger taxon- and location-specific responses that will ultimately lead to novel coral communities. The 2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation provided an opportunity to examine largescale and recent environmental histories on emerging patterns in 226 coral co...
Article
Full-text available
Aim Predictions for the future of coral reefs are largely based on thermal exposure and poorly account for potential geographic variation in biological sensitivity to thermal stress. Without accounting for complex sensitivity responses, simple climate exposure models and associated predictions may lead to poor estimates of future coral survival and...
Article
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Climate change is expected to reinforce undesirable social and ecological feedbacks between ecosystem degradation and poverty. This is particularly true for resource-dependent communities in the developing world such as coral reef fishing communities who will have to adapt to those new environmental conditions and novel ecosystems. It is therefore...
Article
The worldwide decline of coral reefs necessitates targeting management solutions that can sustain reefs and the livelihoods of the people who depend on them. However, little is known about the context in which different reef management tools can help to achieve multiple social and ecological goals. Because of nonlinearities in the likelihood of ach...
Article
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Under extreme heat stress, corals expel their symbiotic algae and colour (that is, ‘bleaching’), which often leads to widespread mortality. Predicting the large-scale environmental conditions that reinforce or mitigate coral bleaching remains unresolved and limits strategic conservation actions1,2. Here we assessed coral bleaching at 226 sites and...
Article
Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefs are in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coral assemblages—the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we...
Article
Full-text available
1.Pollution from land‐based run‐off threatens coastal ecosystems and the services they provide, detrimentally affecting the livelihoods of millions people on the world's coasts. Planning for linkages among terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems can help managers mitigate the impacts of land‐use change on water quality and coastal ecosystem s...
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To describe, model and assess the relative importance of environmental and climatic factors likely influencing the regional distribution of coral cover and assemblages with contrasting life histories and susceptibilities to bleaching.
Article
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Coastal fish populations are typically threatened by multiple human activities, including fishing pressure and run-off of terrestrial pollution. Linking multiple threats to their impacts on fish populations is challenging because the threats may influence a species directly, or indirectly, via its habitats and its interactions with other species. H...
Article
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Coastal ecosystems can be degraded by poor water quality. Tracing the causes of poor water quality back to land-use change is necessary to target catchment management for coastal zone management. However, existing models for tracing the sources of pollution require extensive data-sets which are not available for many of the world’s coral reef regio...
Article
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Conservation science is a rapidly developing discipline, and the knowledge base it generates is relevant for practical applications. It is therefore crucial to monitor biases and trends in conservation literature, to track the progress of the discipline and re-align efforts where needed. We evaluated past and present trends in the focus of the cons...
Article
Clearing forests for oil palm plantations is a major threat to tropical terrestrial biodiversity, and may potentially have large impacts on downstream marine ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs). However, little is known about the impacts of runoff from oil palm plantations, so it is not clear how oil palm development should be modified to minimize the r...
Article
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Ongoing declines in the structure and function of the world's coral reefs require novel approaches to sustain these ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them. A presently unexplored approach that draws on theory and practice in human health and rural development is to systematically identify and learn from the 'outliers'-places where...
Article
Fish biomass is a primary driver of coral reef ecosystem services and has high sensitivity to human disturbances, particularly fishing. Estimates of fish biomass, their spatial distribution, and recovery potential are important for evaluating reef status and crucial for setting management targets. Here we modeled fish biomass estimates across all r...
Data
Summary statistics of the nls models. (XLSX)
Data
High resolution map of the western Indian Ocean for (a) modeled biomass based on the empirical relationship established in Fig 1., (b) the estimated time to recover biomass to a mean estimated sustainability level (450 kg/ha). Recovery rates are based on studies of biomass recovery in fully protected fisheries closures studied over a 20-year period...
Data
High resolution map of the Western Indian Ocean for (a) the estimated time to recover biomass to a mean estimated sustainability level (600 kg/ha), and (b) the estimated time to recover biomass to the estimated conservation target of 1150 kg/ha. Recovery rates are based on studies of biomass recovery in fully protected fisheries closures studied ov...
Data
High resolution map derived from algorithm identifying and prioritizing the most depleted fish biomass for small closures and adjacent spillover reefs until all reefs with biomass <450 kg/ha are classified. (EPS)
Data
High resolution maps of Marzone maximum probability priority selections for 50% sustainability, 20% conservation, and 30% unmanaged where to time to recovery was the cost and minimized if (a) countries collaborated to reach these goals, and (b) there was no collaboration between countries. (EPS)
Data
Classification of reefs by their management categories used for estimating biomass. (JPG)
Data
A model selection table showing the 95% confidence set of models. (DOCX)
Article
Decision making for the conservation and management of coral reef biodiversity requires an understanding of spatial variability and distribution of reef habitat types. Despite the existence of very high-resolution remote sensing technology for nearly two decades, comprehensive assessment of coral reef habitats at national to regional spatial scales...
Article
Oceanic environmental variables derived from satellites are increasingly being used to predict ecosystem states and climate impacts. Despite the concerted efforts to develop metrics and the urgency to inform policy, management plans, and actions, few metrics have been empirically tested with field data for testing their predictive ability, refineme...
Article
Continuing degradation of coral reef ecosystems has generated substantial interest in how management can support reef resilience. Fishing is the primary source of diminished reef function globally, leading to widespread calls for additional marine reserves to recover fish biomass and restore key ecosystem functions. Yet there are no established bas...
Article
Full-text available
A major gap exists in integrating climate projections and social-ecological vulnerability analyses at scales that matter, which has affected local-scale adaptation planning and actions to date. We address this gap by providing a novel methodology that integrates information on: (i) the expected future climate, including climate-related extreme even...
Chapter
Full-text available
A new paradigm has emerged for management of coral reefs in an era of changing climate – managing for resilience. A fundamental need for such management to be effective is our ability to measure and map coral reef resilience. We review the resilience concept and factors that may make a coral reef more or less resilient to climate-driven impacts, an...
Article
Fishes contribute substantially to energy and nutrient fluxes in reef ecosystems, but quantifying these roles is challenging. Here, we do so by synthesising a large compilation of fish metabolic-rate data with a comprehensive database on reef-fish community abundance and biomass. Individual-level analyses support predictions of Metabolic Theory aft...
Article
Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating r...
Article
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Managing coral reefs for resilience to climate change is a popular concept but has been difficult to implement because the empirical scientific evidence has either not been evaluated or is sometimes unsupportive of theory, which leads to uncertainty when considering methods and identifying priority reefs. We asked experts and reviewed the scientifi...
Data
Multi-dimensional scaling of the responses to the (a) 31 and (b) top 8 factors evaluated for perceived effects of the factors on coral reef resilience. (TIF)
Data
Pair-wise matrix of the Pearson product correlation coefficients for comparisons of the resilience rankings produced for the study sites in Karimunjawa. Scores for individual factors were not scaled in the method highlighted in the first (our study of 31 factors) and 5th [16] columns and rows. Scaling for the others is continuous, based on the perc...
Data
Map of Karimunjawa Islands and associated coral reefs and the 43 sites studied for resilience to climate change disturbances. Sites were split evenly into three groups based on the 11 key evidence-based factors and colored green for high, yellow for medium, and red for low climate resilience. Values next to sites are the rankings based on the 11 ke...
Data
Empirical evidence for factors relating to resistance and the evidence score (−5 to +5) based on evaluations from 28 coral reef experts. (DOC)
Data
Empirical evidence for factors relating to recovery and the evidence score (−5 to +5) based on evaluations from 28 coral reef experts. (DOC)
Article
Understanding the linkages between coastal watersheds and adjacent coral reefs is expected to lead to better coral reef conservation strategies. Our study aims to examine the main predictors of environmental proxies recorded in near shore corals and therefore how linked near shore reefs are to the catchment physical processes. To achieve these, we...
Article
Full-text available
Coral cores provide vital climate reconstructions for site-specific temporal variability in river flow and sediment load. Yet, their ability to record spatial differences across multiple catchments is relatively unknown. Here, we investigate spatial linkages between four coral proxies of terrestrial runoff and their relationships between sites. Cor...
Article
Full-text available
Coral cores provide vital climate reconstructions for site-specific temporal variability in river flow and sediment load. Yet, their ability to record spatial differences across multiple catchments is relatively unknown. Here, we investigate spatial linkages between four coral proxies of terrestrial runoff and their relationships between sites. Cor...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The ways that fishers distribute their fishing effort over a fishing ground can affect the ecological impacts on and the economic performance of fisheries. This distribution can be influenced by a number of social, economic, and institutional factors such as technology, management, and fishers‟ knowledge. Many fisheries development and management i...
Article
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Globally, fisheries are challenged by the combined impacts of overfishing, degradation of ecosystems and impacts of climate change, while fisheries livelihoods are further pressured by conservation policy imperatives. Fishers' adaptive responses to these pressures, such as exiting from a fishery to pursue alternative livelihoods, determine their ow...
Data
Classification-tree analysis for the responses of 599 fishers to hypothetical declines including site-level variables, but not including the variable of ‘site’. Branches classifying fishers as ‘exit’ are on the right hand branches. (DOCX)
Data
Relationships between the probability of a fisher stating they would exit from a hypothetical 50% decline in catch and the occupational multiplicity of their fellow householders, the value of their typical daily catch. (DOCX)
Data
Regression-tree analysis for proportion of fishers within a site opting to stop fishing in response to a halving of catch value. (DOCX)
Data
Factors considered in previous empirical studies of fisher mobility and whether they were found to be significant (if statistically tested). (DOCX)
Data
Communities surveyed and summary statistics for each. * Only targeted fisher surveys (no random household surveys) conducted in Stone Town or Mazizini. (DOCX)
Data
Variables included in analysis and data summarised by country. (DOCX)
Data
Results of GLMM regression with all individual or household variables. (DOCX)
Article
Coral reefs support the livelihood of millions of people especially those engaged in marine fisheries activities. Coral reefs are highly vulnerable to climate change induced stresses that have led to substantial coral mortality over large spatial scales. Such climate change impacts have the potential to lead to declines in marine fish production an...
Data
A conceptual framework adopted for the analysis of ocean color data. (TIF)
Data
Normal cumulative density functions fitted on respective environmental parameters (log transformed except for SST and UV). (TIF)
Data
A summary of conceptual deductions of reef coral responses to environmental variables (adopted from [16] ). (DOC)
Data
A table of coral exposure indices i.e. radiation, reducing, reinforcing, each set of coordinates represents coral reef location within respective ocean provinces. (DOC)
Article
Full-text available
The decline of coral reefs globally underscores the need for a spatial assessment of their exposure to multiple environmental stressors to estimate vulnerability and evaluate potential counter-measures. This study combined global spatial gradients of coral exposure to radiation stress factors (temperature, UV light and doldrums), stress-reinforcing...
Article
Full-text available
Mangroves are known for their global environmental and socioeconomic value. Despite their importance, mangrove like other ecosystems is now being threatened by natural and human-induced processes that damage them at alarming rates, thereby diminishing the limited number of existing mangrove vegetation. The development of a spatial vulnerability ass...
Article
Climatic–oceanographic stress and coral reef diversity were mapped in the western Indian Ocean (WIO) in order to determine if there were associations between high diversity coral reefs and regions with low-to-moderate climate stress. A multivariate stress model developed to estimate environmental exposure to stress, an empirical index of the coral...
Article
Full-text available
We describe marine climate variability off the east coast of Africa in the context of fish catch statistics for Tanzania and Kenya. The time series exhibits quasi-decadal cycles over the period 1964-2007. Fish catch is up when sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric humidity are below normal in the tropical West Indian Ocean. This pattern rel...
Article
1.Surveys of coral reefs in northern Tanzania were conducted in 2004/5 with the aim of comparing them over an∼8-year period during a time of increased efforts at fisheries management and the 1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) coral mortality event that caused 45% mortality in northern Tanzania and much of the Ind...
Article
The ecosystem goods and services provided by coral reefs are critical to the social and economic welfare of hundreds of millions of people, overwhelmingly in developing countries [1]. Widespread reef degradation is severely eroding these goods and services, but the socioeconomic factors shaping the ways that societies use coral reefs are poorly und...
Article
Priorities for conservation, management, and associated activities will differ based on the interplay between nearness of ecosystems to full recovery from a disturbance (pristineness), susceptibility to climate change (environmental susceptibility [ES]), and capacity of human communities to cope with and adapt to change (social adaptive capacity [A...
Article
Ocean climate derived variables from satellites are increasingly being used to predict ecosystem states and processes. Despite the concerted efforts to develop such models, and the urgency to incorporate their outputs into management plans and actions, few models have been tested with field data for the purpose of refinement and eventual integratio...
Article
Reports of coral diseases are increasing and may result from human land use and climate change conditions such as increased water temperature, coral bleaching, runoff from land, and changes in the ecology of heavily fished reefs. We examined a stable coral syndrome or a growth anomaly [Porite growth anomaly (PGA)] (skeletal tissue anomaly, hyperpla...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change will pose new challenges to conserving Earth's natural ecosystems, due to incremental changes in temperature and weather patterns, and to increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Addressing these challenges will require pragmatic conservation actions informed by site-specific understanding of susceptibility to cli...
Article
There is a need to develop methods and a decision support system to establish marine protected areas that harbour coral reefs that are resilient to climate change. This requires understanding patterns of coral's susceptibility to thermal stress and how coral communities will change with the environmental variables associated with climate change. Th...