Joseph DeCarolis

• PhD
• Professor at North Carolina State University

Given the rapid pace of energy system development, the time has come to reimagine the U.S. Government's capability to model the long-term evolution of the domestic and global energy system. As a primary custodian of these capabilities, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is embarking on the development of a long-term, modular, flexible...

Climate variability accounts for distinct seasonal differences in electricity demand and streamflow potential, which power systems rely on to assess available hydropower and to cool thermal power plants. Understanding the interactions between reservoir and power networks under varying climate conditions requires an integrated analysis of both syste...

The deployment of offshore wind, wave, and ocean current technologies can be coordinated to provide maximum economic benefit. We develop a model formulation based on Mean-Variance portfolio theory to identify the optimal site locations for a given number of wind, wave, and ocean current turbines subject to constraints on their energy collection sys...

The wide scale deployment of variable renewable energy technologies (VREs) offers a pathway to decarbonize the electric grid. One challenge to reliably operating the grid is ensuring that sufficient generating capacity is available to meet demand at all hours. By determining an individual generator's contribution to resource adequacy based on its e...

US energy system development consistent with the Paris Agreement will depend in part on future fuel prices and technology costs, which are highly uncertain. Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) represent a critical tool to examine clean energy futures under different assumptions. While many approaches exist to examine future sensitivity and un...

Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) are designed to examine the potential effects of a proposed policy, but often represent energy-efficient technologies and policies in an overly simplified way. Most ESOMs include different end-use technologies with varying efficiencies and select technologies for deployment based solely on least-cost optimi...

Electric sector capacity expansion models are widely used by academic, government, and industry researchers for policy analysis and planning. Many models overlap in their capabilities, spatial and temporal resolutions, and research purposes, but yield diverse results due to both parametric and structural differences. Previous work has attempted to...

Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) are designed to examine the potential effects of a proposed policy, but often represent energy-efficient technologies and policies in an overly simplified way. Most ESOMs include different end-use technologies with varying efficiencies and select technologies for deployment based solely on least-cost optimi...

Given its physical characteristics and the range of services that it can provide, energy storage raises unique modeling challenges. This paper summarizes capabilities that operational, planning, and resource-adequacy models that include energy storage should have and surveys gaps in extant models. Existing models that represent energy storage diffe...

Ensuring power system reliability under high penetrations of variable renewable energy is a critical task for system operators. In this study, we use a loss of load probability model to estimate the capacity credit of solar photovoltaics and energy storage under increasing penetrations of both technologies, in isolation and in tandem, to offer new...

The reliable and affordable supply of energy through interconnected systems represent a critical infrastructure challenge. Seasonal and interannual variability in climate variables—primarily precipitation and temperature—can increase the vulnerability of such systems during climate extremes. The objective of this study is to understand and quantify...

We assess the sensitivity of residential electricity demand in 48 U.S. states to seasonal climate variations and structural changes pertaining to state-level household electricity demand. The main objective is to quantify the effects of seasonal climate variability on residential electricity demand variability during the winter and summer seasons....

Energy system optimization models often incorporate climate change impacts to examine different energy futures and draw insights that inform policy. However, increased risk of extreme weather events from climate change has proven more difficult to model. Here, we present an energy system optimization model that incorporates hurricane risks by combi...

The authors are founding team members of a new effort to develop an Open Energy Outlook for the United States. The effort aims to apply best practices of policy-focused energy system modeling, ensure transparency, build a networked community, and work toward a common purpose: examining possible US energy system futures to inform energy and climate...

This study is the first comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) of reverse electrodialysis (RED), a technology that converts salinity gradient energy into electricity. Our goal is to identify RED system components of environmental concern and provide insights on potential environmental impacts. We conduct an attributional LCA of two RED scenarios...

As of 2020, North American natural gas extraction and use in the electricity sector have both reached all-time highs. The combination of North America's increased reliance on natural gas with a potential disruption to the natural gas market has several energy security implications. Additionally, policymakers interested in economic resiliency will f...

Policies and regulations such as Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) have been implemented to potentially increase the recycling rate of electronic waste (e-waste), but the cost and environmental impacts of associated collection, transportation, material recovery, material re-processing, and disposal could outweigh the benefits of recycling if t...

Technological change and policy support have heightened expectations for the role of energy storage in power systems, creating a need to enhance representations of energy storage in long-term models to inform decision-making. Energy storage technologies have complex and diverse cost, value, and performance characteristics that make them challenging...

Studies focusing on 100% renewable energy systems have emerged in recent years; however, existing studies tend to focus only on the power sector using exploratory approaches. This paper therefore undertakes a whole-system approach and explores optimal pathways towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. The analysis is carried out for Ireland, which cur...

The authors previously analysed a real-world solid waste management (SWM) system using the solid waste optimization life-cycle framework (SWOLF) to identify optimal SWM strategies that meet modelled objectives (e.g. cost, environmental impacts, landfill diversion). While mathematically optimal strategies can support SWM decision making, they may no...

Rigorous model-based analysis can help inform state-level energy and climate policy. In this study, we utilize an open-source energy system optimization model and publicly available datasets to examine future electricity generation, CO2 emissions, and CO2 abatement costs for the North Carolina electric power sector through 2050. Model scenarios inc...

Energy economy optimization (EEO) models employ formal search techniques to explore the future decision space over several decades in order to deliver policy-relevant insights. EEO models are a critical tool for decision-makers who must make near-term decisions with long-term effects in the face of large future uncertainties. While the number of mo...

Rigorous model-based analysis can help inform state-level energy and climate policy. In this study, we utilize an open-source energy system optimization model and publicly available datasets to examine future electricity generation, CO2 emissions, and CO2 abatement costs for the North Carolina electric power sector through 2050. Model scenarios inc...

The planned US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as well as uncertainty about federal climate policy have raised questions about the country's future emissions trajectory. Our model-based analysis accounts for uncertainty in fuel prices and energy technology capital costs and suggests that market forces are likely to keep US energy-related greenh...

Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) should be used in an interactive way to uncover knife-edge solutions, explore alternative system configurations, and suggest different ways to achieve policy objectives under conditions of deep uncertainty. In this paper, we do so by employing an existing optimization technique called modeling to generate a...

This paper explores electricity planning strategies in South Sudan under future conflict uncertainty. A stochastic energy system optimization model that explicitly considers the possibility of armed conflict leading to electric power generator damage is presented. Strategies that hedge against future conflict have the greatest economic value in mod...

Seasonal climate variations affect electricity demand, which in turn affects month-to-month electricity planning and operations. Electricity system planning at the monthly timescale can be improved by adapting climate forecasts to estimate electricity demand and utilizing energy models to estimate monthly electricity generation and associated opera...

Building performance simulation [BPS] tools are important in all design stages. However, barriers such as time, resources, and expertise inhibit their use in the early design stages. This study aims to develop, as part of decision-support framework, metamodels to assess the thermal discomfort in a naturally ventilated Brazilian low-cost house durin...

Greenhouse vegetable production plays a vital role in providing year‐round fresh vegetables to global markets, achieving higher yields, and using less water than open‐field systems, but at the expense of increased energy demand. This study examines the life cycle environmental and economic impacts of integrating semitransparent organic photovoltaic...

This paper presents an energy storage friendly regulation signal design method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Battery energy storage systems (BESS) have a very fast response rate and excellent ramping capability, making them ideal resources for providing fast regulation services. However, the limitation in energy storage capacity prev...

In practice, methane generation at U.S. landfills is typically predicted by using the EPA's Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM), which includes two parameters, the methane production potential (L 0 , m ³ CH 4 Mg ⁻¹ wet waste)and the first-order decay rate constant (k, yr ⁻¹ ). Default parameters in LandGEM (L 0 = 100 and k = 0.04)were determined...

Seasonal climate variations affect electricity demand, which in turn affects month-to-month electricity planning and operations. Electricity system planning at the monthly timescale can be improved by adapting climate forecasts to estimate electricity demand and utilizing energy models to estimate monthly electricity generation and associated opera...

This paper explores electricity planning strategies in South Sudan under future conflict uncertainty. A stochastic energy system optimization model that explicitly considers the possibility of armed conflict leading to electric power generator damage is presented. Strategies that hedge against future conflict have the greatest economic value in mod...

Solid waste management (SWM) is a key function of local government and is critical to protecting human health and the environment. Development of effective SWM strategies should consider comprehensive SWM process choices and policy implications on system-level cost and environmental performance. This analysis evaluated cost and select environmental...

The planned US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as well as uncertainty about federal climate policy has raised questions about the country’s future emissions trajectory. Our model-based analysis accounts for uncertainty in fuel prices and energy technology capital costs and suggests that market forces are likely to keep US energy-related greenho...

Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) have been used extensively in providing insights to decision makers on issues related to climate and energy policy. However, there is a concern that the uncertainties inherent in the model structures and input parameters are at best underplayed and at worst ignored. Compared to other types of energy models,...

The recent change in US presidential administrations has introduced significant uncertainty about both domestic and international policy support for continued reductions in GHG emissions. This brief analysis estimates the potential climate ramifications of changing US leadership, contrasting the Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (MCS) r...

Hydrokinetic turbines harnessing energy from ocean currents represent a potential low carbon electricity source. This study provides a detailed techno-economic assessment of ocean turbines operating in the Gulf Stream off the North Carolina coast. Using hindcast data from a high-resolution ocean circulation model in conjunction with the US Departme...

The development of sustainable solid waste management (SWM) systems requires consideration of both economic and environmental impacts. Societal life-cycle costing (S-LCC) provides a quantitative framework to estimate both economic and environmental impacts, by including "budget costs" and "externality costs". Budget costs include market goods and s...

Energy policy often builds on insights gained from quantitative energy models and their underlying data. As climate change mitigation and economic concerns drive a sustained transformation of the energy sector, transparent and well-founded analyses are more important than ever. We assert that models and their associated data must be openly availabl...

Solid waste collection contributes to the cost, emissions, and fossil fuel required to manage municipal solid waste. Mechanistic models to estimate these parameters are necessary to perform integrated assessments of solid waste management alternatives using a life-cycle approach; however, models are only as good as their parameterization. This stud...

New regulations and targets limiting the disposal of food waste have been recently enacted in numerous jurisdictions. This analysis evaluated selected environmental implications of food waste management policies using life-cycle assessment. Scenarios were developed to evaluate management alternatives applicable to the waste discarded at facilities...

A process model was developed using a lifecycle approach to estimate the cost and energy use associated with municipal solid waste collection, which is the most fuel-intensive and often the most costly aspect of solid waste management. The model divides collection service areas into single-family residential, multi-family residential, and commercia...

Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) should be used in an interactive way to uncover knife-edge solutions, explore alternative system configurations, and suggest different ways to achieve policy objectives under conditions of deep uncertainty. In this paper, we do so by employing an existing optimization technique called modeling to generate a...

Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) should be used in an interactive way to uncover knife-edge solutions, explore alternative system configurations, and suggest different ways to achieve policy objectives under conditions of deep uncertainty. In this paper, we do so by employing an existing optimization technique called modeling to generate a...

A critical challenge associated with renewable energy is managing its variable and intermittent output. Offshore compressed air energy storage (OCAES) is a carbon-free storage technology that can used to support renewable energy generation in marine environments. This paper provides the first economic characterization of OCAES performance when coup...

The design community lacks simple, data-driven energy assessment tools to explore energy-efficient alternatives during the early stages of building design. A promising option is to utilize a whole building energy simulation engine (e.g. EnergyPlus) within a Monte Carlo simulation framework to develop a linear regression-based building energy model...

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas generated from the anaerobic decomposition of waste in landfills. If captured, methane can be beneficially used to generate electricity. To inventory emissions and assist the landfill industry with energy recovery projects, the U.S. EPA developed the Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM) that includes two key par...

Insights derived from life-cycle assessment of solid waste management strategies depend critically on assumptions, data, and modeling at the unit process level. Based on new primary data, a process model was developed to estimate the cost and energy use associated with material recovery facilities (MRFs), which are responsible for sorting recyclabl...

This paper utilizes life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to evaluate the conversion of U.S. municipal solid waste (MSW) to liquid transportation fuels via gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (FT). The model estimates the cumulative energy demand and global warming potential (GWP) associated with the conversion of 1 Mg (1 Mg = 1000 kg) of MSW delive...

Solid waste management (SWM) systems must proactively adapt to changing policy requirements, waste composition, and an evolving energy system to sustainably manage future solid waste. This study represents the first application of an optimizable dynamic life-cycle assessment framework capable of considering these future changes. The framework was u...

Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles-known collectively as electric drive vehicles (EDVs)-may represent a clean and affordable option to meet growing U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand. The goal of this study is twofold: identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high LDV market penetration in the U.S. and quantify the asso...

This paper introduces Tools for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis (Temoa), an open source framework for conducting energy system analysis. The core component of Temoa is an energy economy optimization (EEO) model, which minimizes the system-wide cost of energy supply by optimizing the deployment and utilization of energy technologies over a us...

The anaerobic decomposition of solid waste in a landfill produces methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and if recovered, a valuable energy commodity. Methane generation from U.S. landfills is usually estimated using the U.S. EPA's Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM). Default values for the two key parameters within LandGEM, the first order decay ra...

Energy economy optimization (EEO) models employ formal search techniques to explore the future decision space over several decades in order to deliver policy-relevant insights. EEO models are a critical tool for decision-makers who must make near-term decisions with long-term effects in the face of large future uncertainties. While the number of mo...

This paper presents a new modeling approach to quantify building energy performance in early design stages. Building simulation models can accurately quantify building energy loads, but are not amenable to the early design stages when architects need an assessment tool that can provide rapid feedback based on changes to high level design parameters...

‘Smart Grids’ are expected to help facilitate a better integration of distributed storage and demand response options into power systems and markets. Quantifying the associated system benefits may provide valuable design and policy insights. Yet many existing energy system models are not able to depict various critical features associated with Smar...

Informed energy decision making requires effective software, high-quality input data, and a suitably trained user community. Developing these resources can be expensive and time consuming. Even when data and tools are intended for public re-use they often come with technical, legal, economic and social barriers that make them difficult to adopt, ad...

Energy-economy optimization models – encoded with a set of structured, self-consistent assumptions and decision rules – have emerged as a key tool for the analysis of energy and climate policy at the national and international scale. Given the expansive system boundaries and multi-decadal timescales involved, addressing future uncertainty in these...

This paper illustrates a new method to create supply curves for pollution abatement using boiler-level data that explicitly accounts for technology cost and performance. The Coal Utility Environmental Cost (CUECost) model is used to estimate retrofit costs for five different NOx control configurations on a large subset of the existing coal-fired, u...

The use of municipal solid waste (MSW) to generate electricity through landfill-gas-to-energy (LFGTE) and waste-to-energy (WTE) projects represents roughly 14% of U.S. nonhydro renewable electricity generation. Although various aspects of LFGTE and WTE have been analyzed in the literature, this paper is the first to present a comprehensive set of l...

The environmental impacts of fossil-fueled electricity drive interest in a cleaner electricity supply. Electricity from wind provides an alternative to conventional generation that could, in principle, be used to achieve deep reductions (>50%) in carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuel use. Estimates of the average cost of generation—now roughly —...

Managing wind's intermittency entails costs even when wind power supplies a small fraction of load. If electric power systems evolve efficiently as wind capacity grows, the costs of managing intermittency will grow smoothly with increasing penetration, allowing wind power to provide deep reductions in CO2 emissions at costs that are competitive wit...

Large-scale use of wind power can alter local and global climate by extracting kinetic energy and altering turbulent transport in the atmospheric boundary layer. We report climate-model simulations that address the possible climatic impacts of wind power at regional to global scales by using two general circulation models and several parameterizati...

Serious climate change mitigation aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will require a radical shift to a decarbonized energy supply. The electric power sector will be a primary target for deep reductions in CO2 emissions because electric power plants are among the largest and most manageable point sources of emissions. With respec...

The cost of electricity from wind is about 4 ¢ per kilowatt-hour (kWh) according to M. Z. Jacobson and G. M. Masters' estimate in their Policy Forum “Exploiting wind versus coal” ( Science 's Compass, 24 Aug., p. [1438][1]), making wind energy competitive with new coal-fired generation. There

Tunnel diode oscillators have been used in many types of experiments that measure the properties of materials. We present the details of an apparatus that extend these tunnel diode techniques to measure the properties of materials in pulsed magnetic fields. In the most common version of this method, a sample is placed in the inductor of a small rf...

An analysis of 30 years of energy consumption patterns and efforts to reduce energy use illustrates how a small institution can set an example while confronting society's significant challenges.

We have measured the superconducting phase diagram of lambda-(BETS)_2GaCl4 by rf penetration depth measurements using a tunnel diode oscillator in pulsed magnetic fields. The anisotropy parameter gamma=4 was determined by comparing measurements made with the magnetic field parallel and perpendicular to the conducting planes. We contrast our measure...