Jose Luiz Rossi Junior

• Ph.D.
• Economist at Inter-American Development Bank

Las políticas en implementación en la región para mitigar los efectos del COVID-19 se están pensando como mecanismos de apoyo de corto plazo, para asegurar niveles de ingresos a los más vulnerables y apoyo a las empresas que enfrentan una reducción en la demanda y choques de oferta. Estas políticas, si bien necesarias ahora, tienen 2 limitaciones (...

Este documento analiza el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en los países del Cono Sur: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. La magnitud del impacto dependerá de la duración de la pandemia, su propagación y las medidas de prevención y de respuesta de los países para contener y amortiguar el choque. También dependerá de la estructura de su...

This paper studies the transmission of the monetary policy through the wealth channel in Brazil. Using a structural Bayesian model, we analyze the importance of the different components of wealth in the transmission of the monetary policy in Brazil. The paper finds that the wealth effect works in Brazil only through the evolution of real estate pri...

This policy brief summarizes challenges in the infrastructure sectors of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. It also includes recommendations to overcome these challenges, along with an overview of the PPP framework, national development plans, and ongoing initiatives.

The text analyzes how the Brazilian states’ fiscal position evolved between 2006 and 2015, with the data revealing a clear deterioration in state-level public finances during that period. The rating methodology developed by the Ministry of Finance is used to show that, when comparing 2006-2008 to 2013-2015, 21 of the 26 states and the Federal Distr...

This paper studies the usefulness of factor models in explaining the dynamics of the exchange rate Real / Dollar from January 1999 to August 2011. The paper verifies that the inclusion of factors embedded on the common movements of exchange rates of a set of countries significantly improves the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the mo...

This article examines whether the Central Bank of Brazil's (BCB) reaction function has nonlinear properties and characterizes the type of preference of the BCB from July 2000 to August 2008. The tests reject the hypothesis of linearity in the BCB's reaction function. Furthermore, using a smooth-transition regression model, the results indicate that...

This paper analyzes the impact of the use of derivatives and the direction and magnitude of the premium coverage related to each type of derivative instrument on firm value for a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies traded in the period from 2004 to 2007. The results indicate that the use of derivatives is related to a significant and positi...

This paper analyzes the impact of the use of derivatives and the direction and magnitude of the premium coverage related to each type of derivative instrument on firm value for a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies traded in the period from 2004 to 2007. The results indicate that the use of derivatives is related to a significant and positi...

The paper analyzes the exchange rate exposure of a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 1999 to 2009. The results confirm the importance of using nonlinear models to address companies' exchange rate exposure. The results indicate that when compared to the linear model commonly used in literature, the nonlinear model leads to an increase...

This paper analyzes the use of foreign exchange derivatives by non-financial publicly traded Brazilian companies from 2007 to 2009. Using balance-sheet data on firms’ positions in derivatives and their foreign exchange exposure, this study finds that a significant number of companies speculated in the derivatives market. Two types of speculators ar...

This paper analyzes the use of foreign exchange derivatives by non-financial publicly traded Brazilian companies from 2007 to 2009. Using balance-sheet data on firms’ positions in derivatives and their foreign exchange exposure, this study finds that a significant number of companies speculated in the derivatives market. Two types of speculators ar...

This paper analyzes whether the behavior related to the equity market timing affected the recent IPO wave of Brazilian firms and exerted an impact on companies'capital structure. Using data from january 2004 to december 2007 the paper classifies the months in the sample in hot or cold according the number of IPOs that took place in each month. The...

This paper applies the factor-augmented vector autoregressive methodology (FAVAR) to analyze the impacy of monetary policy shocks on the Brazilian economy, using 125 monthly series for the period between January of 1995 and September of 2009. Overall, the results obtained were consistent with economic theory and no price puzzle is observed. The pap...

This paper analyzes the relationship between companies' financial policies and the exchange rate regime for a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 1996 to 2006. The adoption of a floating exchange rate regime is shown to improve the match between the currency composition of companies' assets and liabilities. The paper also shows that th...

Using a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 2005 to 2007, this paper analyzes whether corporate social responsibility has an impact on firm value. Using companies' Tobin's Q as a proxy for their market value, the paper finds that firms that compose the Bovespa Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE) are traded at a premium compared to the...

This paper analyzes whether the behavior related to the equity market timing affected the recent IPO wave of Brazilian firms and exerted an impact on companies'capital structure. Using data from january 2004 to december 2007 the paper classifies the months in the sample in hot or cold according the number of IPOs that took place in each month. The...

This article examines the use of derivatives and its impact on firm value for a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies listed in the São Paulo Stock Exchange from 1996 to 2006. Using parametric and non-parametric methods, the results confirm that the use of derivatives adds value to the firm, indicating that, differently than asserted by Modig...

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This paper studies the exchange rate exposure and its determinants for a sample of nonfinancial Brazilian companies from 1996 to 2006. The results indicate that the number of firms exposed to exchange rate fluctuations is higher in periods of crisis and under a fixed exchange rate regime. In addition, the results point out that, although companies'...

The paper studies the frequency of price changes from a survey data on Brazilian companies. The data set has the advantage of including all of the economic sectors: agricultural and food products, trading, industry and services. Strong evidence of nominal price rigidities is found on the data with average and median price durations around 10.1 and...

This paper studies the exchange rate exposure and its determinants for a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 1996 to 2006. The results show that Brazilian companies are substantially exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. More than 25% of the firms in the sample have significant exposure to movements in the exchange rate. Moreover, the...

Este artigo estuda o uso de derivativos de moeda para uma amostra de empresas brasileiras não-financeiras de 1996 a 2004. O trabalho verifica que algumas das hipóteses apresentadas pela teoria do hedging ótimo são capazes de explicar a decisão acerca da utilização e o volume de derivativos utilizados pelas firmas brasileiras. Além disso, o estudo most...

This paper analyzes the relationship between the c hoice of the exchange rate regime, companies' foreign vulnerability and financial poli cies for a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies during the period from 1996 to 2002. The results show that the exchange rate regime plays an important role in the determination of companies' foreign vulner...

Abstract Recent financial crises showed that emerging countries are extremely vulnerable to sudden swings in international capital flows. In these countries, commonly, periods of relative tranquility, characterized by substantial capital inflows and real GDP growth, are followed by periods when capital flows abroad, and output plummets . In some co...

This article presents evidence on the positive effect of international trade on productivity growth using industrial level data preceding and following Brazil's trade liberalization in 1988-90. Our data reveal large and widespread productivity improvement across industries after barriers to trade were drastically reduced. Econometric results confir...

Although the subject of a large number of studies, the debate on the links between trade reform and productivity growth is still un-resolved and most studies at the micro level have not been able to establish a relationship between the two phenomena. Brazil provides a natural experiment to study this issue that is seldom available: it was one of th...

This paper estimates equations for the value of exports and external price of the main Brazilian commodities. Those commodities are: coffee, soy, sugar, iron ore, meat, aluminum, cocoa, orange juice and tobacco, which amount to 25% of total Brazilian exports. We estimate unrestricted Vector Autoregressions (VAR) and restricted models in first diffe...

In this paper we present projections for Brazil's balance of payments in 1999 under alternative scenarios for GDP growth and foreign capital inflows. Our main objective is to estimate the real exchange rate devaluation required for the country's external adjustment. Our simulations are based on the Quarterly Model of the Balance of Payments develop...

This paper presents the latest version of the annual econometric model for the Brazilian economy developed by the Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Modelling (Gamma) at IPEA/DIPES. The model is designed to make medium run projections and policy simulations. The specification of the model is basically Keynesian. Estimation features include the use...

Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips stock price has been predicted using the difference between core and headline CPI in the United States. Linear trends in the CPI difference allow accurate prediction of the prices at a five to ten-year horizon.

This paper studies the exchange rate exposure and its determinants for a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 1996 to 2006. The results indicate that the number of firms exposed to exchange rate fluctuations is higher in periods of crisis and under a fixed exchange rate regime. In addition, the results point out that, although companies...

This article presents estimates of labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) growth for 16 sectors of Brazilian manufacturing industry for the period 1985/97. Besides, the paper investigates the impact of trade protection on evolution of Brazilian productivity. The study reaches the following conclusions: the productivity of Brazilian...

This paper studies the use of foreign currency derivatives for a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 1996 to 2004. The paper verifies that some of the hypotheses presented by the optimal hedging literature are able to explain the Brazilian companies' decision to use currency derivatives and their decision on the amount to use. Moreover...

This paper examines the impact of company's hedging activities on firm value for a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 1996 to 2005. The results show that hedging activities do increase the firm value. The result is robust with respect to the period and the econometric method adopted in the analysis.

Este trabalho analisa a relação entre o endividamento em moeda estrangeira e o regime cambial para um painel de empresas brasileiras no período 1996-2004. Utilizando um modelo desenvolvido por Holmstrom e Tirole (1997) e estendido por Martinez e Werner (2002), o trabalho testa se o regime de câmbio fixo, devido à existência de garantias implícitas...

O trabalho analisa, através da utilização de retornos diários gerados por uma regra de negociação baseada em análise técnica, se as intervenções do Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) no mercado cambial introduzem algum tipo de previsibilidade no comportamento da taxa de câmbio. Os resultados indicam que, quando os períodos de intervenção fazem parte da...

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