Jose M. Pavia

• Professor
• Professor (Full) at University of Valencia

It is well known that the President of the United States is elected by the Electoral College and not directly by the population. Every time a candidate who does not win the most popular votes is elected President, detractors of the Electoral College call for its abolishment and supporters extol its undoubtedly merits. This article investigates what...

The estimation of the inner entries of a set of related RxC contingency tables when only the margins are known poses one of the most difficult problems in the field of the social sciences, present in many areas from marketing to quantitative history; being particularly prevalent in political science and sociology. With dozens of methods proposed to...

Las estadísticas espaciales transversales y longitudinales, así como los modelos econométricos espaciotemporales, se basan en datos referenciados espacial y temporalmente. Las unidades administrativas como ciudades, comarcas o provincias proporcionan fuentes de datos estables, permitiendo que los modelos combinen estadísticas recopiladas en diferen...

Ecological inference is a statistical technique used to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. A particularly relevant instance of ecological inference involves the estimation of the inner cells of a set of R × C related contingency tables when only their aggregate margins are known. This problem spans multiple disciplines, including quanti...

El turismo no puede quedar al margen de la sociedad 5.0 y debe avanzar en la digitalización, adaptándose a la nueva realidad, de acuerdo con la Organización Mundial del Turismo (OMT). El turismo es un eje fundamental de la economía española, en particular, y la economía mundial, en general. En 2023 el turismo representa casi el 13% del PIB español...

Advanced analytics plays a vital role in enhancing various aspects of business operations within the insurance sector by providing valuable insights that drive informed decision-making, primarily through effective database utilization. However, open access databases in the insurance industry are exceedingly rare, as they are the basis of the busine...

The R package sc2sc offers fundamental tools for transferring information between census sections and postal codes in Spain, based on the cartography of these geographic segmentations. However, certain aspects for improvement have been identified. This document presents a substantial improvement to the package, optimizing the cp2sc function, which...

Plain Language Summary During the final years of the twentieth century, Inglehart and Norris proposed a theory regarding the observed evolution of the gender gap in political/ideological self-placement in Western countries that let Spain out of this trend. They argued that when democracy, economic growth, and modernization are present, societies ex...

Facing a prospective majority of socialists during the early third of the 20th century, some secular conservative and liberal parties pooled their votes to raise the majority threshold for the left, while others raised it by enacting some form of proportional representation. We use vote transfers, estimated by a new method of ecological inference,...

Ecological inference methods are devised to estimate unknown inner-cells of 2-way contingency tables by inferring conditional distribution probabilities. This outlines one of the more long-standing social science problems, chiefly frequent in political science and sociology. To solve the problem, ecological inference algorithms consider an asymmetr...

Worldwide, Likert scales are used to measure ideology of both public opinion and individual voters, with the utilization of a self-assessment numerical scale as the most widely accepted tool, despite the multifaceted nature of the concept. However, in contrast to this prevailing consensus, there is a lack of agreement regarding what particular scal...

The big data revolution has made it possible to collect, transmit and exploit huge amounts of data. The potential this offer for data analysis, however, clashes with the limitations imposed by laws on protection of personal data. This paper details a new database (DEMOSPA0521) made after processing and summarising more than 868 million demographic...

Estimates the Gini index and computes variances and confidence intervals for finite and infinite populations, using different methods; also computes Gini index for continuous probability distributions, draws samples from continuous probability distributions with Gini indices set by the user; uses 'Rcpp'.

Advanced analytics plays a vital role in enhancing various aspects of business operations within the insurance sector, providing valuable insights that drive informed decision-making, primarily through effective database utilization. However, open access databases in the insurance industry are exceedingly rare, as they are the basis of the business...

La edad legal de jubilación se alarga cada año. Sin embargo, sigue habiendo un colectivo heterogéneo de personas que voluntariamente deciden trabajar más allá de la edad ordinaria, situada en los 65 años hasta la reforma del sistema de pensiones de 2011. La ley 27/2011, de 1 de agosto, aprobó el incremento de la edad legal de jubilación de manera p...

The Solvency II Directive, in its standard formula, proposes that a permanent 15% increase should be applied to mortality rates for covering normal deviations of mortality and that the rates should be increased uniformly over just the following year by 1.5‰ to cover catastrophic mortality deviations. The latter increase means disproportionally rais...

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the gender dimension of its more visible socio-economic impacts has been the topic of study by several researchers. The current paper takes this further by focusing on the invisible chores done in the families at home. This paper studies how people’s behavior towards housework changed during and after th...

The estimation of voter shifts (stayers and switchers) between elections is an active area of research that, for decades, has attracted the interest of many scholars. The voter transitions are typically summarised in a row-standardised proportion (probability) matrix. This matrix is usually unknown, despite it being of interest to many agents, incl...

Fuelled by the big data explosion, a new methodology to estimate sub-annual death probabilities has recently been proposed, opening new insurance business opportunities. This new approach exploits all the detailed information available from millions of microdata records to develop seasonal-ageing indexes (SAIs) from which sub-annual (quarterly) lif...

Subnational jurisdictions, compared to the apparatuses of countries and large institutions, have less resources and human capital available to carry out an updated conjunctural follow-up of the economy (nowcasting) and for generating economic predictions (forecasting). This paper presents the results of our research aimed at facilitating the econom...

The analysis of systemic credit risk is one of the most important concerns within the financial system. Its complexity lies in adequately measuring how the transmission of systemic default spreads through assets or financial markets. The transmission structure of systemic credit risk across several European sectoral CDS is studied by dynamic Bayesi...

This note illustrates some of the new roles that armed forces are taking on in developed countries, highlighting the structure, capabilities, and missions developed by the Spanish Military Emergency Unit (UME). The note describes some of these new roles assumed by UME, such as its response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and shows, using official tempora...

The foundation of the insurance business is built on data, the latter being one of the most valuable assets of any insurer. In fact, the risk structure to which an insurance company is exposed can actually be deduced by reviewing its customer database. It is not surprising, therefore, that access to real insurance datasets is very limited. This pap...

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life...

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life...

The economic crisis which began in 2008, and was further exacerbated by the political-institutional crisis of 2011–2014, has led to a transformation in the traditional Spanish party system. Instead of an imperfect bipartisan system, it has moved to a moderate multiparty one with two practically sealed ideological blocs, of similar weight and with i...

p>The estimation of RxC ecological inference contingency tables from aggregate data defines one of the most salient and challenging problems in the field of quantitative social sciences. From the mathematical programming framework, this paper suggests a new direction for tackling this problem. For the first time in the literature, a procedure based...

Introducción. La detección de cambios en las características de un proceso aleatorio, cono¬cido como el problema del cambio, se ha convertido en un área de investigación estadística en rápido desarrollo. La correcta y rápida detección de los cambios es relevante en muchas situaciones reales, en particular, en Epidemiología. Materiales y Métodos. Co...

The estimation of RxC ecological inference contingency tables from aggregate data is one of the most salient and challenging problems in the field of quantitative social sciences, with major solutions proposed from both the ecological regression and the mathematical programming frameworks. In recent decades, there has been a drive to find solutions...

Elasticity is a very popular concept in economics and physics, recently exported and reinterpreted in the statistical field, where it has given form to the so-called elasticity function. This function has proved to be a very useful tool for quantifying and evaluating risks, with applications in disciplines as varied as public health and financial r...

Ecological inference models aim to infer individual-level relationships using aggregate data. They are routinely used to estimate voter transitions between elections, disclose split-ticket voting behaviors, or infer racial voting patterns in U.S. elections. A large number of procedures have been proposed in the literature to solve these problems; t...

The COVID-19 crisis started with an increase in workloads for families due to the suspension of services and the fall of formal and informal care networks. Numerous studies have analyzed how home confinements have affected different gender gaps, including those related to work within the home. This research aims to contribute to the existing litera...

Insurance companies use annual life tables to manage mortality risks despite intra-annual mortality risks showing sub-annual fluctuations. The difficulty of (accurately) measuring and computing these fluctuations is likely behind this decision. The research carried out by [5], however, offers new opportunities by developing a methodology that, for...

This article introduces a dataset that captures relevant information about the living conditions, feelings, and habits of residents in Spain during 99 days of home confinement. This and other measures, imposed by the Government of Spain to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the population, have brought with them important economic, labour, and...

2020 was a year marked by COVID-19, an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Since the official beginning of the pandemic (March 2020), the authorities in Spain have been imposing significant restrictions (mainly on mobility) to stop the spread of the disease. In October 2020, the research group GIPEyOP (Elections and Public Opinion Re...

Despite the overwhelming evidence that shows the persistence of intra‐annual variations on demographic events (deaths, birth dates and migration flows), life tables are computed and provided on an annual basis. This paper develops a new estimator for estimating sub‐annual death rates that, considering the exact moment of occurrence (exact age and d...

The COVID-19 pandemic and the fear experienced by some of the population, along with the lack of mobility due to the restrictions imposed, has modified the social behaviour of Spaniards. This has had a significant effect on the hospitality sector, viewed as being an economic and social driver in Spain. From the analysis of data collected in two of...

This paper introduces the SEA database (acronym for Spanish Electoral Archive). SEA brings together the most complete public repository available to date on Spanish election outcomes. SEA holds all the results recorded from the electoral processes of General (1979–2019), Regional (1989–2021), Local (1979–2019) and European Parliamentary (1987–2019)...

Ecological regression has been very fertile in proposing procedures that can be used to estimate the so-called vote transfer matrices. According to various studies, the method implemented in the R function ei.MD.bayes is the one that currently presents the best performance. This method, based on a hierarchical Multinomial-Dirichlet model, is estima...

Income inequality is becoming a growing concern, worldwide, with wage inequality being the root cause of its recent escalation. With the aim of adding to the knowledge on this subject, this paper focuses on the spatial dimension of the problem, an aspect which has received less attention in the literature. We identify the determinants of inequality...

The estimation of RxC ecological inference contingency tables from aggregate data defines one of the most salient and challenging problems in the field of quantitative social sciences. From the mathematical programming framework, this paper suggests a new direction for tackling this problem. For the first time in the literature, a procedure based o...

The estimation of RxC ecological inference contingency tables from aggregate data defines one of the most salient and challenging problems in the field of quantitative social sciences. From the mathematical programming framework, this paper suggests a new direction for tackling this problem. For the first time in the literature, a procedure based o...

La situación sanitaria actual ha obligado, en mayor o menor medida, a modificar nuestros hábitos y nuestras costumbres. El ámbito de la docencia universitaria no es una excepción y, en tal sentido, tanto instituciones como docentes han tenido que realizar un importante esfuerzo para garantizar que la educación universitaria siga siendo de calidad....

The political fragmentation following the 2008 Financial Crisis and its economic, social, political and institutional fall-out have led to a growing left-right polarisation of politics and a weakening of the middle ground. The effective number of parliamentary parties is at an all-time high both inthe Spanish Parliament (Congreso) and in the Valenc...

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life...

The correct identification of change‐points during ongoing outbreak investigations of infectious diseases is a matter of paramount importance in epidemiology, with major implications for the management of health care resources, public health and, as the COVID‐19 pandemic has shown, social live. Onsets, peaks, and inflexion points are some of them....

In European past populations, religious canons shaped the seasonal distribution of marriages and births by means of banning weddings and sexual intercourse during important holidays within the religious calendar. In contemporary secularized societies, this seasonal modeling has disappeared. A few pieces of evidence have been gathered to explain how...

Inferring electoral individual behaviour from aggregated data is a very active research area, with ramifications in sociology and political science. A new approach based on linear programming is proposed to estimate voter transitions among parties (or candidates) between two elections. Compared to other linear and quadratic programming models previ...

Life tables have a substantial influence on both public pension systems andlife insurance policies. National statistical agencies construct life tables fromhypotheses death rate estimates to the (mx aggregated ), or death figures probabilities of demographic (q x ), after applying events (deaths, variousmigrations and births). The use of big data h...

The general elections of 2015 in Spain took place in the middle of the Great Recession after several years of austerity economic policies. This election caused a political earthquake that shook the Spanish party system. During the campaign of that election, GIPEyOP (Elections and Public Opinion Research Group from University of Valencia) conducted...

The gender gap in political knowledge is a classical problem of Western democracies. In the 21st century, political knowledge is still unequally distributed between men and women, as many cross-section studies have shown. This is an indicator of women’s disempowerment and the distance which remains to be covered to achieve an inclusive and sustaina...

This paper applies a Machine Learning approach with the aim of providing a single aggregated prediction from a set of individual predictions. Departing from the well-known maximum-entropy inference methodology, a new factor capturing the distance between the true and the estimated aggregated predictions presents a new problem. Algorithms such as ri...

Visión práctica de la ciberdelincuencia y la ciberseguridad que pueda servir tanto de apoyo y referencia a profesionales del sector como a aquellas personas interesadas en el estudio de este nuevo fenómeno de criminalidad. Para ello, analizaremos la normativa actual, cómo trabaja la ciberdelincuencia en la actualidad, y cómo evolucionará la lucha c...

Insurance companies develop loaded life tables to protect themselves against deviations, for example, in the number of expected deaths or in the (residual) expectation of life of their insured. In doing so, however, the single random vector of experience crude death rates from which loaded tables are constructed is treated as deterministic or, at b...

The IT revolution, now more than ever, offers a cheaper and faster way to collect, store, transmit and process data. Detailed microdata of dates of death, migration and birth are already becoming available for general populations. In this paper, we develop within the family of period-based estimators a new, assumption-free estimator for constructin...

La desigualdad de género, y en particular la desigualdad salarial de género, ha sido considerada una prioridad política en muchos países durante las últimas décadas, con foco puesto en reducir la llamada brecha salarial, es decir, en buscar una convergencia en media para los salarios de hombres y mujeres. Una aproximación de medias, sin embargo, no...

Solvencia II (Directiva parlamentaria europea 2009/138/EC) establece los criterios y normas de carácter cuantitativo y cualitativo que las entidades aseguradoras que operan en la Unión Europea deben acometer para garantizar su solvencia y estabilidad financiera. Solvencia II está estructurada en tres pilares y abarca, a través de un esquema modular...

RESUMEN La actividad de la detección del fraude y la corrupción es tan antigua como los delitos que pretende destapar. En los últimos años, sin embargo, debido al avance de las nuevas tecnologías, los delitos económicos y de corrupción se han sofisticado. Consecuentemente, las técnicas y las metodologías para su detección y análisis han de evolucio...

Durante finales del siglo XX, España viene registrando un envejecimiento de su población. Se sitúa a la vanguardia de los países del mundo con mayor esperanza de vida al nacer y a la cola en natalidad. ¿Cómo afecta esta transformación de la pirámide demográfica a nuestra democracia? ¿El envejecimiento de la población equivale al envejecimiento de n...

The general elections of 2015 in Spain were elections of change. Two new parties for which voters had no previous historical reference points burst onto the parliamentary scene. Two (partially) opposed theories vie to offer an explanation as to how voters build their aggregate electoral expectations. In this paper, we investigate which mechanism ha...

The current paper focuses on the Spanish electoral rules governing political competition for the central “Congreso de los Diputados”. It is well-documented that the system as a whole has traditionally favoured one or the other of the two main political parties (PP and PSOE) at the expense of proportionality and the remaining political parties. This...

Este trabajo ha sido reconocido con el segundo galardón del IV Premio Actuarial SCOR para la Península Ibérica en el año 2018. La publicación es accesible desde la página web de SCOR: https://www.scor.com/en/file/33945/download?token=80SVp95k

A significant number of voters are turning their backs on traditional parties. The stability of European party systems is being defied by a growing number of (new) radical parties, whose presence in the European Parliament has never been as strong as it is now. Faced with the worst global economic crisis of the last 80 years and with growing socio-...

Durante siglos ha permanecido vigente en las poblaciones católicas un precepto religioso que prohibía las relaciones sexuales durante la Cuaresma. Esta interdicción repercutía en una disminución de concepciones y en un repunte tras dicho periodo, ambos difíciles de detectar porque, en poblaciones que no ejercían un control efectivo de la fecundidad...

In the actuarial field, life tables are used in reserving and pricing processes. They are commonly built from aggregate data and incorporate margins as a prudent measure to ensure the insurance company’s viability. Solvency II requires insurance companies to calculate technical provisions using best-estimate assumptions for future experience (morta...

Surveys applying quota sampling in their final step are widely used in opinion and market research all over the world. This is also the case in Spain, where the surveys carried out by CIS (a public institution for sociological research supported by the government) have become a point of reference. The rules used by CIS to select individuals within...

Influenced by both the impact of digital technologies and the social and political changes experienced in Western societies, the processes of political communication have undergone profound transformations in recent years. This paper introduces the themed issue of Contemporary Social Science devoted to the topic, entitled ‘Election Campaigns and Po...

Objectives: This paper is based on the analysis of the database of operations from a macro-case on money laundering orchestrated between a core company and a group of its suppliers, 26 of which had already been identified by the police as fraudulent companies. In the face of a well-founded suspicion that more companies have perpetrated criminal ac...

In democratic countries policy making is always framed by many procedures and rules. Some of these rules are particularly critical for allowing more or less proportionality in legislative chambers, though the behavior of political actors also matter. The rules used for technically converting votes into political representatives often exercise such...

A large proportion of electoral analyses using geography are performed on a small area basis, such as polling units. Unfortunately, polling units are frequently redrawn, provoking breaks in their data series. Previous electoral results play a key role in many analyses. They are used by political party workers and journalists to present quick assess...

Elasticity (or elasticity function) is a new concept that allows us to characterize the probability distribution of any random variable in the same way as characteristic functions and hazard and reverse hazard functions do. Initially defined for continuous variables, it was necessary to extend the definition of elasticity and study its properties i...

http://www.revista-eea.net/documentos/35207.pdf

El objetivo de esta aportación es analizar la bondad de las estimaciones elaboradas en el marco Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral (CNTR) de España sobre la evolución del PIB, con detalle a tres ramas productivas, medida a través de sus tasas interanuales e intertrimestrales. En concreto, se evaluará la calidad y precisión de las estimaciones mediant...

As interest margins of credit institutions affect economic performance of countries, finding out which are the main determinants of their evolution is a research task of great interest at current times. This is the purpose of the present paper as regards to the Spanish case over the period 2004-2012. Based on the econometric contributions by Ho and...

Belzunce, Candel and Ruiz (1995) define the elasticity for nonnegative random variables as the reversed proportional failure rate (RPFR). Veres-Ferrer and Pavía (2012) interpret it in economic terms, extending its definition to variables that can also take negative values, and briefly present the role of elasticity in characterizing probability dis...

The seasonality of births is an issue that has received much attention in the literature. Empirical evidence has revealed that annual birth distributions have evolved from environmentally-regulated fertility patterns to models that are dominated by socio-cultural factors. This study expands upon this literature by examining the weekly distribution...

http://www.ine.es/ss/Satellite?blobcol=urldata&blobheader=application%2Fpdf&blobheadername1=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=attachment%3B+filename%3Dart_191_3.pdf&blobkey=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobwhere=293%2F149%2Fart_191_3.pdf&ssbinary=true

Rich regions, poor regions and bank branch deregulation in Spain. Regional Studies. The links between financial deregulation and economic performance are evaluated in a European context. Specifically, the study analyses the relaxation of bank branching restrictions in Spain, which triggered a remarkable interregional expansion of savings banks that...

This paper describes the bichannel teaching initiative undertaken by an interdisciplinary network of professors from different Universities and Research Institutions of Spain. The challenge was to screen and highlight technological resources and communication technologies (ICTs) currently available to be applied in classroom and virtual teaching en...

Gracias a la revolución de las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación, estamos en el inicio de una época en la cual recolectar, transmitir y guardar ingentes cantidades de datos (tanto estructurados como no estructurados) se ha convertido en más accesible que nunca. Actualmente se estima que el total de datos almacenados en dispositivos el...