José María Montero

University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain · Statistics

Well-being inequalities arising from di􀀀erent healthcare expenditure public policies is currently a hot topic at a national scale, but especially so at a sub-national level because the inequalities in question are among citizens of the same country. Spain is an optimal study area to carry out research on this topic because it is considered to have...

The last decade has witnessed significant advances in air pollution control. However, the European Union standard for PM10 is still exceeded in large cities. Most of the literature on anticipating PM10 exceedances of the standard is based on PM10 forecasting. However, it fails when it comes to forecasting extreme values. This is the reason why we f...

Air pollution control is one of the main challenges facing modern societies. Consequently, the estimation of population, affluence, and technology impacts on air pollution concentrations (STIRPAT modeling) has become the cornerstone of environmental decision-making. Spatial effects are not usually included in STIRPAT modeling of air pollution. Howe...

This paper focuses on a new strand of research that uses stochastic approach for making spatial price comparisons. We propose a novel method to account for the presence of spatial dependencies in consumer prices and consequently in price indexes by imposing penalization conditions on the estimation of traditional CPD models leading to the spatially...

This paper analyzes the volatility dynamics in the financial markets of the (three) most powerful countries from a military perspective, namely, the U.S., Russia, and China, during the period 2015–2018 that corresponds to their intervention in the Syrian war. As far as we know, there is no literature studying this topic during such an important dis...

We analyze the co-movement of a number of commodity markets in extreme financial episodes worldwide. More specifically, we provide extreme downside risk co-movement maps of these markets during six recent distress periods. We follow an expected shortfall-multidimensional scaling approach, which allows for an easy classification of markets according...

Commodities play a more and more central role in financial markets. There are currently around fifty major commodity markets where more than a hundred hard and soft primary commodities are traded. Financialization has made purchasing index funds one of the most popular ways to invest on commodities. Consequently, understanding the dynamics of commo...

House price prediction is a hot topic in the economic literature. House price prediction has traditionally been approached using a-spatial linear (or intrinsically linear) hedonic models. It has been shown, however, that spatial effects are inherent in house pricing. This article considers parametric and semi-parametric spatial hedonic model varian...

Prediction of particulate matter concentrations is of particular interest in the field of air pollution control. We focus on the spatio-temporal geostatistical approach to predicting particulate matter in large urban areas. However, due to both the poor performance and the prohibitive computational burden of traditional spatio-temporal kriging when...

Housing is understood to be a necessity good, whereas the environment is still viewed as a luxury good, which implies that environmental factors significantly impact on housing prices. This impact is usually measured via aspatial linear hedonic models, but this article goes further, extending those traditional analyses to incorporate spatial autoco...

Palabras clave: Precio de vivienda, mercado inmobiliario, predicción, geoestadística, geoíndice. Clasificación JEL: C21, C23, C31, C53, R31. Abstract Housing price is one of the top concerns of participants in the Spanish real estate market. Housing price statistics in Spain do not take into account the spatial (or spatio-temporal) effects inhere...

Housing is understood to be a necessity good, whereas the environment is still viewed as a luxury good, which implies that environmental factors significantly impact on housing prices. This impact is usually measured via aspatial linear hedonic models, but this article goes further, extending those traditional analyses to incorporate spatial autoco...

Modeling the propagation of extreme financial episodes and their consequences is currently a hot topic in international financial literature. This article focuses on the propagation of such episodes among the top stock exchange indexes in the world. Recent developments in spatio-temporal geostatistics are used to model this propagation process. How...

Introduction: Temporomandibular Disorders can affect climacteric women by hormonal changes in her body. Objective: To characterize the Temporomandibular Disorders in climacteric women. Methods: An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study in women with climacteric syndrome in the # 11 Polyclinic University “Vedado”, was made. In the period...

In February 1908, the first official Spanish institution responsible for pensions and health care was created. Since then, the Spanish pension system has undergone many changes and has overcome many difficulties. One of the biggest challenges that the Spanish pension system has faced has been the issue of sustainability and adequacy arising from th...

Spatial data arise in a myriad of fields and applications, and, therefore, there is a large variety of spatial data types, structures, and scenarios. According to the nature of the spatial domain under study, spatial data can be classified into geostatistical data, lattice data, and point patterns, where it can be appreciated that not all spatial d...

The color illustrations for Chapters 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 and 9 are included, as follows: Figures 3.8, 3.10, 3.11, 3.15 Figures 4.3, 4.4, 4.5 Figure 6.2 Figures 7.2, 7.3, 7.6, 7.7, 7.8, 7.9, 7.10, 7.12 Figure 8.2 Figures 9.8 Figures 3.8, 3.10, 3.11, 3.15 Figures 4.3, 4.4, 4.5 Figure 6.2 Figures 7.2, 7.3, 7.6, 7.7, 7.8, 7.9, 7.10, 7.12 Figure 8.2 Figures 9...

This chapter presents the kriging equations, which allow the prediction of the value of the random function under study at a nonobserved point or block. After introducing the point and block kriging predictor, the chapter focuses on the different types of linear and nonlinear kriging. In all the cases, the corresponding kriging equations are derive...

This chapter presents the main concepts used in geostatistics. Although geostatistics can be defined as the study of regionalized phenomena, it is not applied to them but to a mathematical description of those realities called regionalized variables that, in turn, can be seen as spatial random functions from a probabilistic perspective. This is the...

How do we express in a covariance function or a semivariogram the structure of the spatial dependence or correlation present in the realization observed? This is the key question this chapter poses. In practice, the covariance functions and semivariograms derived from the realization observed may not satisfy the requisites such functions must meet....

This chapter presents a survey of the conventional valid spatio-temporal covariance models, as well as new strategies that are more in keeping with reality than those above and that tackle new challenges that have not, as yet, been studied. The conventional models discussed in the chapter include, among others, the metric-sum, product, product-sum,...

This chapter deals with functional data, the more and more usual in most of scientific fields. In geostatistics, one of the various advantages of functional kriging is to be an interesting alternative to spatio-temporal kriging when dealing with massive datasets that imply an enormous computational burden. This is why in this chapter the functional...

When modeling and predicting a given phenomenon, significant benefits are obtained from considering how it evolves in both space and time rather than only considering its spatial distribution at a given time of reference (a merely spatial process, such as those studied in the previous chapters) or its evolution over time at a given location (a mere...

Similar to Chapter 3, the key question of this chapter is how it can be expressed in a covariance function or a semivariogram the structure of the spatio-temporal dependence existing in the realization observed. This is why this chapter focuses on the construction of empirical spatio-temporal covariograms and semivariograms, and the procedures to f...

This chapter presents both the spatio-temporal kriging predictor and the spatio-temporal kriging equations accompanied the prediction variance. However, both are merely generalizations of their spatial counterparts, and this is why the chapter only focuses on their final expressions and some pertinent comments. It is assumed along the chapter that...

Statistical Methods for Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis provides a complete range of spatio-temporal covariance functions and discusses ways of constructing them. This book is a unified approach to modeling spatial and spatio-temporal data together with significant developments in statistical methodology with applications in R. This book...

Modelling spatio-temporal dependencies resulting from dynamic processes that evolve in both space and time is essential in many scientific fields. Spatio-temporal Kriging is one of the space–time procedures, which has progressed the most over the last few years. Kriging predictions strongly depend on the covariance function associated with the stoc...

Modeling regional economic dynamics requires the adoption of complex econometric tools, which allow us to deal with some important methodological issues, such as spatial dependence, spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearities. Recent developments in the spatial econometrics literature have provided some instruments (such as Spatial Autoregressive Semi...

La calidad del aire es uno de los problemas de que más preocupan a la ciudadanía, sobre todo en las grandes urbes. Es por ello que en las grandes ciudades las autoridades municipales han establecido sistemas de vigilancia de la contaminación atmosférica para la correcta medida de los niveles de gases y de partículas en determinados puntos de las mi...

This paper deals with an important pollution problem affecting millions of people, especially in urban areas and large cities: NOx. This dangerous pollutant is emitted by high temperature combustion and therefore its main source is transportation, which in turn is a consequence of an increase in population and better economic conditions. To examine...

Spatial modeling of economic phenomena requires the adoption of complex econometric tools, which allow us to deal with important methodological issues, such as spatial dependence, spatial unobserved heterogeneity and nonlinearities. In this paper we describe some recently developed econometric approaches (i.e. Spatial Autoregressive Semiparametric...

The ubiquitous assumption of normality for modeling spatial and spatio-temporal data can be understood for many reasons. A major one is that the multivariate normal distribution is completely characterized by its first two moments. In addition, the stability of multivariate normal distribution under summation and conditioning offers tractability an...

We model the complex global dependencies in international financial markets using spatial techniques. Our methodology allows us to go beyond conventional correlation analyses and volatility-spillover models confined to studying pairwise relationships, and improves the accuracy of return predictions. We find that stock market comovements are unrelat...

Background: Lifestyle is one of the main determinants of people's health. It is essential to find the most effective prevention strategies to be used to encourage behavioral changes in their patients. Many theories are available that explain change or adherence to specific health behaviors in subjects. In this sense the named Motivational Intervie...

We model the complex global dependencies in international financial markets using spatial techniques. Our methodology allows us to go beyond conventional correlation analyses and volatility-spillover models confined to studying pairwise relationships, and improves the accuracy of return predictions. We find that stock market comovements are unrelat...

There exists three ways of approaching real estate prices: the cost approach, the market data approach and the income capitalization approach. In this article, we propose an improvement of the market data approach that takes into account the spatial component. In particular, we propose a modified market data approach based on interpolation, being t...

Much work has been done in the context of the hedonic price theory to estimate the impact of air quality on housing prices. Research has employed objective measures of air quality, but only slightly confirms the hedonic theory in the best of cases: the implicit price function relating housing prices to air pollution will, ceteris paribus, be negati...

Recent work has shown how spatial econometrics can be applied to a housingvalue hedonic equation that includes air pollution variables. In this paper we propose a Spatial Durbin Model that incorporates an Air Pollution Index, instead of one or two pollution variables, and considers spatial and non-spatial endogeneity jointly. We do, however, assume...

Because of people's inclination to look for new attractive activities including traditional cultures, the heritage tourism has become a major "new" area of tourism demand and almost all policy-makers are now aware of and anxious to develop. Despite the emergence of new strategies (those based on equity, norm, or perceived overall performance, those...

In spite of the effort made in the last years, NOx is still one of the main pollution problems in large cities. This is why the literature related to predicting NOx levels is certainly extensive. However, most of this literature does not take into account the spatio-temporal dependencies of such NOx levels. As spatiotemporal dependencies are a core...

This book arises as the natural continuation of the International Spring School "Advances and Challenges in Space-Time modelling of Natural Events," which took place in Toledo (Spain) in March 2010. This Spring School above all focused on young researchers (Master students, PhD students and post-doctoral researchers) in academics, extra-university...

This chapter presents a broad view of space and space-time processes . Our dissertation starts with the concept of space and time from the philosophical viewpoint. Then, we relate the concept of space-time with the current practice in Geostatistics and the use of the latter as an effective framework for natural and social sciences. The rest of the...

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RESUMEN En la actualidad, existe un gran interés en la modelización geoestadística de dependencias espacio-temporales que considere las interacciones de ambos argumentos, espacio y tiempo, con la finalidad de incrementar la capacidad predictiva de los procedimientos de krigeado y cokrigeado. Dichas dependencias, incorporadas en las funciones de cov...

Export Date: 14 February 2012, Source: Scopus

The liberalization and deregulation of the Spanish electricity market has provoked an increase in the complexity of pricing behaviour. In particular, the volatility of electricity spot prices is the feature that best characterises the current Spanish market. Since an understanding of the volatility process in the electricity market is critically im...

The relationships between economic growth, environmental sustainability and energy are of great interest among researchers and policy makers. One of the theoretical conclusions that have received most attention is the convergence of the per capita carbon emission levels. But empirical results of theoretical growth models that include the environmen...

Air quality is a topic of crucial importance, because air pollution is one of the most important pollution problems in the world. In particular, predicting or detecting a future extreme air pollution episode or predicting the violation of an air quality standard, is of crucial interest in the field of pollution control. There have been a variety of...

We analyse environmental data collected by a number of stations located in Madrid area. The data are given in the form of concentrations of pollutants, which correspond to micro-particles and various chemical species. We use a multivariate receptor model to estimate the fingerprints of the sources and the amounts of pollution. The data collected ov...

The estimation of commercial property prices in a touristic city can be explored through spatial interpolation methods, but in the presence of small sample sizes, auxiliary stochastic processes that are correlated with the prices of commercial establishments are needed. The aim of this paper is to compare the various estimates of commercial establi...

This article focuses on the study of the leverage effect in the deregulated Spanish wholesale electricity market. For this purpose, we propose a stochastic volatility alternative, a threshold asymmetric autoregressive stochastic volatility (TA-ARSV) model over the well known AGARCH and EGARCH models. The results clearly favour the TA-ARSVA specific...

Globally supported covariance functions are generally associated with dense covariance matrices, meaning severe numerical problems in solution feasibility. These problems can be alleviated by considering methods yielding sparse covariance matrices. Indeed, having many zero entries in the covariance matrix can both greatly reduce computer storage re...

Problem statement: Obtaining new and flexible classes of nonseparable spatio-temporal covariances have resulted in a key point of research in the last years within the context of spatiotemporal Geostatistics. Approach: In general, the literature has focused on the problem of full symmetry and the problem of anisotropy has been overcome. Results: By...

Road traffic noise is one of the main concerns of large cities. Most of them have classified their territory in acoustic areas and have constructed stra-tegic noise maps. From both sources we have elaborated seven types of acoustic neighbourhoods according to both their noise gap in regard to the legal stand-ard and the percentage of population exp...

Tesis doctoral inédita. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Aplicada, 1988

One of the main tasks of regional and environmental economics is to construct Environmental Quality Indexes for big cities. A standard method is to generate a single measure as a linear combination of several contaminants by applying Principal Component Analysis. Spatial interpolation is then carried out to determine pollution levels across the cit...

Energy supply and demand, and as a consequence energy prices, are likely to represent one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Commodity markets exhibit increased volatility when there is little or no underutilized supply capability to meet natural fluctuations in demand. In the case of energy markets, the large capital requirements and s...

Nowadays, almost all curricula in the social sciences contain at least one course in statistics, given the importance of this discipline as a basic knowledge to understand the modern world. It’s necessary reflects on the student’s attitude to statistics, because it’s could be an obstacle or an advantage in their learning process. To measure the stu...

This article shows different models that are capable of reproducing the stylized facts of financial returns series, and provides a new strategy to model the asymmetric answer of volatility in high-frequency series: the TA-ARSV strategy. This strategy is based on the TGARCH and ARSV models. The database used includes the daily returns of gold, silve...

The aim of the paper is to compare the situation o women at the labour market in different European Union states. The main question arises if the position at the labour market and the future pensions depend on gender or on the other factors. It is important to investigate the situation of pension funds since the insurance systems that exist in Eu...

Over the past 25 years, volatility models and their forecasts have been the focus of both academic researchers and practitioners. However, the models proposed in the literature use to fail to detect the asymmetric pattern of volatility in a large number of cases. This is the reason why in this paper we propose a new asymmetric ARSV model: the Thres...

Ecologist groups are claiming that measures of pollution levels are not representative in big cities because monitoring stations are not located in the sites that are most affected by traffic and with greater population density. In this paper, we focus on carbon monoxide and propose nonseparable spatio-temporal covariance functions to carry out kri...

Air pollution is becoming a core factor in housing prices hedonic models, but results about its impact on housing prices are not conclusive. Most of the literature about the issue obviates two important aspects: the importance of the spatial argument in such models and the way air pollution indicators are constructed. In this work we deal with a ge...

Despite the emergence of new strategies, models of expectancy/disconfirmation are still very popular in tourist research. This is why they are revisited by presenting an alternative for testing independence between expectations and disconfirmation versus what we call the positive version of the assimilation theory. A derivation of the chi-square st...

A pesar de la emergencia de nuevas estrategias, los modelos de expectativas-confirmación de las mismas son muy populares en las investigaciones de turismo. Esta es la razón por la que se revisan tres aspectos: (i) son diferentes a las investigaciones habituales, y con el fin de corregir el subjetivismo de los turistas, la satisfacción global de los...

A vast majority of the recent literature on spatial hedonic analysis has been concerned with residential property values, with only very few examples of studies focused on commercial property prices. The dearth of studies can be attributed to some of the challenges faced in the analysis of commercial properties, in particular the scarcity of inform...

This article has a double objective: on the one hand, to study the main stylised facts (especially the asymmetric answer of the volatility) of the different types of energy products. And, the other hand, to analyse the behaviour of these types of series. Two different models are used to estimate volatility in the price of energy products: the autor...