Jose A Marengo

Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais | CEMADEN · CGPDE

RESUMO As inundações sem precedentes de abril a maio de 2024 no Rio Grande do Sul afetaram mais de 90% do estado, deslocando centenas de milhares de pessoas e causando 172 mortes. O fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul foi considerado importante para explicar a variabilidade nas chuvas observadas, consistente com pesquisas anteriores que mostram que even...

The share of solar power in Brazil’s electrical grid has rapidly increased, relieving GHG emissions and diversifying energy sources for greater energy security. Besides that, solar resource is susceptible to climate change, adding uncertainty to electrical grid resilience. This study uses satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the performance of...

Las fuertes sequías en la Amazonía han ido aumentando en frecuencia e intensidad, de cuatro en un siglo , a cuatro en menos de 25 años, en sintonía con el aumento de la deforestación y el calentamiento global. La sinergia de sequías, deforestación, incendios y degradación forestal, tiene el potencial de llevar a la Amazonía a un punto de no retorno...

As áreas de reserva legal (ARLs) são parte fundamental da estratégia brasileira de conservação, juntamente com as áreas de preservação permanente. As ARLs são destinadas à manutenção da biodiversidade e podem ser manejadas de forma sustentável. Quando essas áreas abrigam ecossistemas dependentes de fogo e pastejo, como os campos nativos e as savana...

Abstract-Legal reserve areas (LRAs) are a fundamental part of the Brazilian conservation strategy, together with permanent preservation areas. The LRAs are intended to maintain biodiversity and can be managed sustainably. When these areas are home to ecosystems that depend on fire and grazing, such as native grasslands and savannas, management prac...

This chapter provides summaries of the 2023 temperature and precipitation conditions across seven broad regions: North America, Central America and the Caribbean, South America, Africa, Europe and the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. In most cases, summaries of notable weather events are also included. The base period used for these analyses is 1991...

-Strong droughts in the Amazon have been increasing in frequency and intensity, from four in a century to four in less than 25 years, in concert with increasing deforestation and global warming. The synergy of droughts, deforestation, fire, and forest degradation have the potential to drive the Amazon to a tipping point where this globally importan...

In 2023, most parts of the world experienced exceptional heat. In particular, anomalous warm temperatures and heatwave events were evidenced across South America during the second half of the year. The situation was particularly critical in the Amazon region in terms of not only hydrometeorological drought but also ecological and socioeconomic impa...

The 2022-23 hydrological year in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopó hydrological system (TDPS) over the South American Altiplano constituted a historically dry period. This drought was particularly severe during the pre-wet season (October–December), when the TDPS and the adjacent Andean-Amazon region experienced as much as 60% re...

Understanding disaster risk in all its dimensions is a priority on global agendas. This study developed an integrated analysis of flood risk drivers using a methodology based on meteorological and hydrological analyses, population vulnerability assessment, and municipal risk management capabilities from public data sources. Rio Grande do Sul, Brazi...

The WMO State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2023, is the fourth edition of climate reports published annually for this region and has involved National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), and several research institutions, as well as United Nations agencies, international and re...

In 2023 Amazonia experienced both historical drought and warm conditions. On October 26th 2023 the water levels at the port of Manaus reached its lowest record since 1902 (12.70 m). In this region, October monthly maximum and minimum temperature anomalies also surpassed previous record values registered in 2015 (+ 3 °C above the normal considering...

Global gridded data sets of observed extremes indices underpin assessments of changes in climate extremes. However, similar efforts to enable the assessment of indices relevant to different sectors of society have been missing. Here we present a data set of sector‐specific indices, based on daily station data, that extends the HadEX3 data set of cl...

Cruzeiro do Sul, a municipality in Northwestern Brazil is recurrently impacted by floods, particularly along the Juruá River. This study presents a comprehensive flood risk analysis by integrating geoprocessing, remote sensing, and hydraulic modeling techniques. Our objectives are to simulate flood extents, identify high-risk areas, and guide susta...

This study provides a thorough analysis of the landslides that occurred in the city of São Sebastião, on the northern coast of São Paulo state, Brazil, in February 18th–19th, 2023. The meteorological condition during this event was characterized by a cold front crossing over a warmer-than-normal subtropical South Atlantic, off the coast of São Paul...

In the last few years, the world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse impacts on coupled human and natural systems. While agriculture is the most affected sector, the lack of water due to droughts in our highly interconnected world also affects ecosystems, public water supply, power generation, tourism, water-borne transport and b...

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1–3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, defor...

The impact of hydrological and geological disasters has resulted in significant social, economic, and human losses, which added climate change impacts, and such events have become more frequent and intense. Therefore, our objective is to analyze the extreme rainfall (trends) in the Metropolitan Region of the Paraiba do Sul Valley and North Coast of...

This study presents a scientific study conducted in Angola, focusing on the impact and characteristics of drought events in the country. The research endeavours to assess the primary climatic conditions linked to drought events within Angola, including an investigation into their spatiotemporal patterns. To achieve this, an evaluation of drought ev...

Cada vez mais vivemos em uma era de desastres. De saída, a intensificação dos eventos climáticos extremos amplia o cenário de incertezas e catástrofes, caracterizado pelo Antropoceno. A destruição e a ruína ambiental, não raramente associadas às narrativas do fim do mundo, parecem evocar a ausência de expectativas e de futuros para os seres humanos...

Hydrological and geological disasters triggered by heavy rainfall led to major social, and economic impacts and loss of human lives. This scenario may be worsening due to climate change and the increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. Intense rainfall represents the hazard in terms of risk. This hazard, combined with the...

In this study, a comprehensive multiscale analysis of compounding drought-heat events in the Pantanal region is presented. The goal is to assess the multiscale nature of drought and determine whether the combined effects of drought and heatwaves, as driving factors, are more relevant than the effects of each event separately. The study describes a...

In the last few years, the world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse direct, cascading, and systemic impacts. Despite more frequent and severe events, drought risk assessment is still incipient compared to that of other meteorological and climate hazards. This is mainly due to the complexity of drought, the high level of uncertai...

Brazil’s Pantanal wetland is one of the most threatened Brazilian ecosystems from direct anthropogenic pressures and climate change. In this study, the overarching research question is to explore whether compound drought-heat events (CDHEs) have become more recurrent, intense, and widespread over Brazil’s Pantanal wetland in recent decades. For thi...

This chapter provides summaries of the 2022 temperature and precipitation conditions across seven broad regions: North America, Central America and the Caribbean, South America, Africa, Europe and the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. In most cases, summaries of notable weather events are also included. Local scientists provided the annual summary fo...

This study aims to assess the changes in the atmospheric conditions favorable to storm surges over the Santos Coast in Southeast Brazil. Storm surges can favor high sea level rises and coastal erosion, affecting people and strategic structures in coastal areas. The assessment of the atmospheric conditions was based on the downscaling of climate sim...

Ensuring food security against climate risks has been a growing challenge recently. Weather index insurance has been pointed out as a tool for increasing the financial resilience of food production. However, the multi-hazard insurance design needs to be better understood. This paper aims to review weather index insurance design for food security re...

Weather-related disasters have caused widespread deaths and economic losses in developing countries, including Brazil. Frequent floods and landslides in Brazil are mostly climatic driven, often aggravated by human activities and poor environmental planning. In this paper, we aimed to map and discuss the susceptibility to landslides in the urban are...

This chapter provides definitions of what climate variability and change are and an overview of observed and projected changes in climate in tropical South America. We present a review of the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from the First Report launched in 1990 until the Sixth Report AR6 released in 2021. This revi...

On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in the highlands of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm), generated by a strongly invigorated mesoscale convective system. It resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis...

Unlabelled: During the austral winter (June-August) of 2021, the meteorological services of Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Chile all issued forecasts for unusually cold conditions. Record-low minimum temperatures and cold spells were documented, including one strong cold wave episode that affected 5 countries. In this study, we de...

In southeast Brazil, heavy precipitation events during the summer trigger floods. These disasters are responsible for most loss of lives. In November and December 2021, the northern area of Minas Gerais and the southern part of Bahia were affected by periods of very heavy rain and intense floods. Heavy precipitation contributed to unusually high so...

The current drought conditions across the Parana-La Plata Basin (LPB) in Brazil-Argentina have been the worst since 1944. While this area is characterized by a rainy season with a peak from October to April, the hydrological year 2020-2021 was very deficient in rainfall, and the situation extended into the 2021-2022 hydrological year. Below-normal...

O presente trabalho realiza um comparativo entre os três principais eventos de seca e crise hídrica ocorridos a partir do início do século XXI, nos anos 2001, 2014 e 2021. Por meio de revisão bibliográfica, realizou-se o levantamento de dados e informações que tangem aspectos físicos, políticos e socioeconômicos ambientais para cada um desses event...

From late May to early June 2022, 130 people died in catastrophic landslides and flash flood events triggered by exceptionally heavy rains in the states of Pernambuco, Alagoas, and Paraíba, along the coast of Northeast Brazil. Total rainfall in the city of Recife on May 25–30 was 551 mm, 140 mm higher than the average of the month of May. Rain was...

The study assessed changes in rainfall variability and the frequency of extreme events (very wet and very dry) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, for a 40-year period that divided into two sub-groups: 1973-1992 (P1) and 1993-2012 (P2). Data of 79 rain gauge stations were selected to represent the different climatic and geomorphological domains of t...

Este artigo examina a capacidade do conjunto de 40 modelos climáticos do Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Generation 6 - CMIP6, conjunto MOD, para simular a temperatura do ar e a precipitação médias do período de janeiro de 1985 a dezembro de 2014 em cada estado do Brasil. Apesar dos vieses nas simulações, o subconjunto do CMIP6 conseguiu sim...

Sea Level Rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural environments and built infrastructure in coastal zones around the world. Coastal cities in Brazil are vulnerable to the effects of SLR and to the intensity of storms that induce more storm surges and coastal inundation. Studies on vulnerability of coastal cities in Brazil have been developed...

Unlabelled: Extreme temperature and precipitation events are the primary triggers of hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides, with localized impacts. In this sense, the finer grids of Earth System models (ESMs) could play an essential role in better estimating extreme climate events. The performance of High Resolution Model I...

Interview

Few studies have analyzed climate change perceptions in the disaster risk management sector. This research aimed to understand how civil defense experts are dealing with the climate change topic: what they learn and think about. An online survey was conducted between Octo�ber and December 2021 with 1,063 participants from civil defense agencies in...

A presente edição do Boletim Mensal de Impactos de Extremos de Origem Hidro-Geo-Climático em Atividades Estratégicas para o Brasil, elaborado pelo Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden), unidade de pesquisa do Ministério de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (MCTI), apresenta: (a) a avaliação das ocorrências e alert...

A presente edição do Boletim Mensal de Impactos de Extremos de Origem Hidro-Geo-Climático em Atividades Estratégicas para o Brasil, elaborado pelo Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden), unidade de pesquisa do Ministério de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (MCTI), apresenta: (a) a avaliação das ocorrências e alert...

A presente edição do Boletim Mensal de Impactos de Extremos de Origem Hidro-Geo-Climático em Atividades Estratégicas para o Brasil, elaborado pelo Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden), unidade de pesquisa do Ministério de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (MCTI), apresenta: (a) a avaliação das ocorrências e alert...

Trends in streamflow, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series, from 1970 to 2017, were assessed for five important hydrological basins in Southeastern Brazil. The concept of elasticity was also used to assess the streamflow sensitivity to changes in climate variables, for annual data and 5-, 10-and 20-year moving averages. Signi...

The role of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) was investigated in terms of the anomalous precipitation in southern Brazil related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a long-term data set from 1961 to 2016 from 106-gauge stations. In addition, a direct comparison analysis was performed between El Niño plus positive PDO events and La...

A presente edição do Boletim Mensal de Impactos de Extremos de Origem Hidro-Geo-Climático em Atividades Estratégicas para o Brasil, elaborado pelo Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden), unidade de pesquisa do Ministério de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (MCTI), apresenta: (a) a avaliação das ocorrências e alert...

On February 15, 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within three hours (258 mm). It resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. In this paper, we analyzed the root cause and the key triggering fac...

This Report provides a comprehensive, objective, open, transparent, systematic, and rigorous scientific assessment of the state of the Amazon’s ecosystems, current trends, and their implications for the long-term well-being of the region, as well as opportunities and policy relevant options for conservation and sustainable development.

This Report provides a comprehensive, objective, open, transparent, systematic, and rigorous scientific assessment of the state of the Amazon’s ecosystems, current trends, and their implications for the long-term well-being of the region, as well as opportunities and policy relevant options for conservation and sustainable development.

This Report provides a comprehensive, objective, open, transparent, systematic, and rigorous scientific assessment of the state of the Amazon’s ecosystems, current trends, and their implications for the long-term well-being of the region, as well as opportunities and policy relevant options for conservation and sustainable development.

Climate projections models indicate that longer periods of droughts are expected within the next 100 years in various parts of South America. To understand the effects of longer periods of droughts on aquatic environments, we investigated the response of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration to recent severe drought events in the Barra Bonita Hydroel...

A presente edição do Boletim Mensal de Impactos de Extremos de Origem Hidro-Geo-Climático em Atividades Estratégicas para o Brasil, elaborado pelo Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden), unidade de pesquisa do Ministério de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (MCTI), apresenta: (a) a avaliação das ocorrências e alert...