Jose De Gregorio

• University of Chile

Motivated by the significant increases in international reserves during the 2000s, this paper analyzes the reasons why emerging and developing countries choose to accumulate them. In addition to a traditional measure of mercantilism, we add the terms of trade, and the speculation-deterrent motive. The results show that the mercantilist motive was a...

The article analyzes the work of the "entrepreneurial teacher" and the production of science and technology in Brazilian public higher education institutions within the framework of higher education counter-reform, promoted since 1995. To this end, it makes use of relevant literature and extensive documentary analysis. It begins with a discussion o...

La América Latina ha estado dominada por expansiones del crecimiento que con gran frecuencia han terminado en crisis y prolongados periodos de estancamiento. Esto ha conducido a un crecimiento escaso durante la mayor parte del siglo pasado. Este artículo reseña las experiencias del crecimiento latinoamericano y examina algunos ámbitos particulares...

Previous research shows that due to a decline in international yields following the recent global crises corporations in emerging markets are issuing more debt in the international markets (offshore debt). Some evidence suggests that lower international rates encourage firms to abnormally accumulate cash holdings as a means to increase carry trade...

Latin American performance during the global financial crisis was unprecedented. Many developing and emerging countries successfully weathered the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Was it good luck? Was it good policies? This paper compares growth during the Asian and global financial crises. It finds that a looser monetary policy played an...

!--[if gte mso 9]> 0 0 1 150 860 UFBA 7 2 1008 14.0 96 800x600 <!--[if gte mso 9]> O presente trabalho está fundamentado nas contribuições teóricas de Florestan Fernandes buscando analisar os traços estruturantes e conjunturais da educação superior brasileira, a fim de apreender em que medida esses traços configuram o padrão dependente de ensino, m...

Top economists consider how to conduct policy in a world where previous beliefs have been shattered by the recent financial and economic crises. Since 2008, economic policymakers and researchers have occupied a brave new economic world. Previous consensuses have been upended, former assumptions have been cast into doubt, and new approaches have yet...

This paper analyzes the unprecedented resilience of Latin American countries to the global financial crisis. It argues that sound macroeconomic conditions, which allowed an unusual monetary and fiscal expansion, exchange rate flexibility, a strong and well--regulated financial system, high level of reserves, and a bit of luck coming from very high...

http://dx.doi.org.br/10.5007/2175-795X.2012v30n3p987 O presente artigo busca analisar como as recentes reconfigurações das universidades federais (IFES) no país têm sido processadas de forma compartilhada entre o governo federal, através do Ministério da Educação (MEC), reitores e setores importantes destas instituições. Apresenta conclusões a pa...

Resumo: O interesse desse estudo concentra-se nas propostas e nos programaseducacionais dirigidos à população pobre das províncias do Amazonas e do Pará.A população dispersa pelo imenso território constituía um obstáculo à difusão dainstrução, argumento explorado exaustivamente pelos administradores em seusrelatórios. Elegeu-se a escola primária pú...

During the second half of the 2000s, the world experienced a rapid and substantial rise in commodity prices. This shock posed complex challenges for monetary policy, in particular because of the significant increase in food and energy prices, and the repercussions they had on aggregate inflation measures. This paper discusses the role of commodity...

This BIS Paper (No. 68) is a collection of essays focusing on the drivers and effects of capital flows and the challenges they pose for the implementation of monetary and other policies. The collection draws on selected presentations made at the BIS-sponsored sessions at the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) meetings in 2010...

Macroeconomic and financial instability in an inflation-targeting context poses important challenges to emerging economies. The particular case of capital flows into emerging economies is analyzed here as one cause of said macroeconomic and financial instability. Before the recent global crisis, the notion of "separability", i.e., that the objectiv...

Although the first central banks were created more than three hundred years ago, it was not until the mid-nineteenth century that central banks were given the monopoly power to issue banknotes and to act as lender of last resort. Thereafter, central banks played the role of liquidity provider and lender of last resort. These tasks were intended to...

This document analyzes the rationality of keeping international reserves, which are used as a type of insurance in the event of external financing problems and to mediate in the type of exchange rate. Here it is argued that it is not possible to separate both objectives. This explains why the use of other forms of insurance, although potentially ch...

Este documento analiza la racionalidad de mantener reservas internacionales, las cuales se usan como un tipo de seguro ante problemas de financiamiento externo y para intervenir en el tipo de cambio. Aquí se argumenta que no es posible separar ambos objetivos. Esto explica por qué el empleo de otras formas de seguro, aunque potencialmente más barat...

This paper studies the effect of large devaluations on inflation. It analyzes a sample of 41 episodes of currency crisis. The data show that about 30% of the devaluation is offset by higher inflation after three months, and the offset climbs to about 60% after two years, with a significant real depreciation present for longer periods. The main dete...

En este artículo se analiza el rol que jugaron los aumentos de productividad en la desinflación que vivió Chile en los años noventa. Se plantea que tales aumentos fueron clave para evitar los costos en términos de menos producto que conlleva la estabilización en una economía altamente indexada. La desinflación entre 1990 y 1998 fue sin costo. Entre...

No abstract available.

This article discusses the global adjustment process and the current challenges for policymaking, with a special focus on the asymmetries and their implications for economic policy. It reviews the uneven recovery faced by developed and emerging economies. Emphasis is made on the situation of China and the US, especially in terms of the implications...

Macroeconomic and financial instability in an inflation-targeting context poses important challenges to emerging economies. The particular case of capital flows into emerging economies is analyzed here as one cause of said macroeconomic and financial instability. Before the recent global crisis, the notion of "separability", i.e., that the objectiv...

This paper examines the impact of the copper price on macroeconomic performance in Chile. We explore particular features of the Chilean business cycle focusing on economic activity and the real exchange rate. We find that the Chilean economy has become increasingly resilient to copper price shocks in the last twenty-five years, and especially durin...

La economía internacional atraviesa una grave crisis financiera, alta inflación y una inusual dispersión del crecimiento en el mundo. Y más aún, este escenario es muy incierto. En este documento trataré la situación actual desde una perspectiva algo más general, es decir, no solo de la crisis financiera, analizando los desbalances globales, la cris...

I am grateful to the Chicago Fed for inviting me to participate in this important policy panel. Most recent conferences on macro and financial policies have been dealing with the causes, consequences and implications of the financial crisis of late 2008 and early 2009, and the Great Recession that ensued. This panel has been persuasively entitled W...

This BIS Paper discusses lessons provided by the global financial crisis for inflation targeting and financial stability. It contains selected presentations from the BIS-sponsored sessions at two Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) annual meetings: November 2008, in Rio de Janeiro, and October 2009, in Buenos Aires. The 2008 p...

In recent decades, the number of independent central banks has grown steadily. In Chile, autonomy was adopted twenty years ago. This paper discusses the reasons why central bank independence is convenient for the economy, together with the importance of transparency as a complementary feature. Finally, some results are presented, particularly for t...

The current global recession has cast doubts about the work of macroeconomists, the usefulness of their theories and their capacity to anticipate and deal with crises. This paper discusses that, while incapable of dealing with all the complexities of the real world, models do help to interpret the economic reality and propose economic policy recomm...

The current global recession has cast doubts about the work of macroeconomists, the usefulness of their theories and their capacity to anticipate and deal with crises. This paper discusses that, while incapable of dealing with all the complexities of the real world, models do help to interpret the economic reality and propose economic policy recomm...

El mundo está atravesando una severa crisis. Chile, pese a mostrar gran solidez en su sistema financiero, no puede estar al margen. Este artículo comienza con una discusión sobre los efectos de la política monetaria en los precios de activos y la estabilidad financiera. Además se discuten los efectos de la crisis sobre la inflación y la actividad....

En las últimas décadas, ha habido un significativo aumento en el número de bancos centrales independientes. En Chile, la autonomía se adoptó hace ya veinte años. En este documento se presentan las razones por las cuales es conveniente tener un banco central autónomo, y se discute la importancia de la transparencia como complemento de la independenc...

La actual recesión mundial ha puesto en tela de juicio la labor de los macroeconomistas, la utilidad de sus teorías, y su capacidad de anticipar y manejar las crisis. Este artículo discute que pese a que los modelos son limitados para abordar todas las complejidades de la realidad, nos ayudan a interpretarla y a tener recomendaciones de política ec...

This paper looks at some issues surrounding the implementation of flexible inflation targets, with a particular focus on emerging markets. It starts by clarifying how to define an inflation target and how this is related to balancing the tradeoff between inflation and output. Flexible inflation targets, which define the objective of monetary policy...

In 2009, the world is facing the worst recession in more than six decades. Chile has been no exception. In spite of this outlook, the Chilean economy stands on solid ground, and recent figures show that the recovery has started. This article discusses the fundamentals of the Chilean economy and how economic policies have responded to the strong for...

In this article the world economic situation is reviewed from a perspective different than the financial one. Thus, beginning from the recent economic context the US economy is going through, it is analyzed why such difficulties are came and what is the learning process needed to understand future scenarios.

Hay un vasto debate sobre las causas de la �gran moderación�, fe-nómeno observado a partir de mediados de los ochenta en las economías industriales y que ha significado una reducción de la volatilidadno sólo de la inflación sino también del producto. Las explicacionesvan desde la buena suerte hasta las buenas políticas. En este documento se argumen...

Latin America has been dominated by growth expansions that, more often than not, have ended in crises and protracted periods of stagnation. This has led to poor growth performance during most of the past century. This paper reviews Latin American growth experiences and discusses some particular areas that help to explain why sustainable growth has...

This paper presents additional evidence on the international nature of the “Great Moderation:" the apparent structural decline in the variance of GDP growth first documented in the United States. We find evidence of a similar reduction in volatility in the other G-7 countries and Australia. However, the timing and nature of the moderation varies co...

The primary aim of the paper is to place current methodological discussions in macroeconometric modeling contrasting the ‘theory first’ versus the ‘data first’ perspectives in the context of a broader methodological framework with a view to constructively appraise them. In particular, the paper focuses on Colander’s argument in his paper “Economist...

La economía internacional atraviesa una grave crisis financiera, alta inflación y una inusual dispersión del crecimiento en el mundo. Y más aún, este escenario es muy incierto. En este documento trataré la situación actual desde una perspectiva algo más general, es decir, no solo de la crisis financiera, analizando los desbalances globales, la cris...

La literatura reciente sobre las interrupciones súbitas de los flujos de capital está basada en el hecho de que muchas economías emergentes han experimentado bruscas y variadas reversiones en su cuenta financiera. El presente artículo argumenta que es más informativo estudiar el comportamiento de los flujos brutos del capital, que solo mirar el res...

Latin America has been dominated by growth expansions that, more often than not, have ended in crises and protracted periods of stagnation. This has led to poor growth performance during most of the past century. This paper reviews Latin American growth experiences and discusses some particular areas that help to explain why sustainable growth has...

Este artículo hace una revisión de la coyuntura económica mundial desde una perspectiva diferente a la financiera. Así, partiendo del contexto económico por el que actualmente atraviesa Estados Unidos, se analiza porque se llega a tales dificultades y cuál es el aprendizaje para entender futuros escenarios.

El crecimiento de largo plazo en Chile es tal vez una de las discusiones más relevantes de políticas públicas. Este documento intenta aportar a esta discusión. En primer lugar se enfatiza el papel que ha jugado la política monetaria y las políticas macroeconómicas en general, no sólo en la contención de la inflación sino que también en la promoción...

El presente estudio muestra la equivalencia entre diferentes formas de definir el objetivo inflacionario de un banco central. Definir un rango y el porcentaje del tiempo en que se espera que la tasa de inflación caiga dentro de dicho rango es lo mismo que definir una meta para la inflación proyectada sobre un horizonte dado. A su vez, ambas definic...

Recent literature on sudden stops analyses the sharp and varied capital account reversals experienced by many emerging market economies. This paper claims that more information can be extracted from the behavior of gross capital flows than from their net results. It emphasizes the fact that, while one economy’s sudden stop can reveal exclusion from...

This paper presents evidence of an important decline during recent decades in the pass-through from the price of oil to the general price level. We find that this decline is a generalized fact for a large set of countries. After documenting correlations between the consumer price index and oil prices, we use two estimation strategies in an attempt...

El trabajo revisa el modelo de overshooting de Dornbusch; primero, para discutir las condiciones de sobrerreacción (overshooting) y subreacción (undershooting) del tipo de cambio, extendiendo el modelo para considerar reglas de política monetaria y movilidad imperfecta de capitales. En segundo lugar, para realizar una representación del modelo de D...

América Latina ha estado marcada por explosiones de crecimiento que, en su mayoría, han terminado en crisis y largos períodos de estancamiento, lo que durante la mayor parte del siglo pasado se tradujo en un desempeño económico débil. Este artículo revisa la experiencia de crecimiento de los países latinoamericanos, con énfasis en algunas áreas esp...

El número de países que ha adoptado un esquema de metas de inflación para conducir la política monetaria es alto y creciente, y mucho mayor aun el de los que declaran usar metas de inflación. Se ha planteado incluso que el FMI debería instituirlo como recomendación de manejo macroeconómico. A veces pareciera que basta con enunciar una proyección de...

El significativo aumento del precio del cobre ha puesto sobre la mesa un conjunto de temas de primera importancia. En este trabajo se abordan dos de ellos. El primero es preguntarse por qué la economía chilena no crece más rápido, tal como ocurrió en otras bonanzas del cobre. Hay un conjunto de factores que lo explican, pero aquí se argumenta que e...

This paper shows the equivalence between different approaches to the inflationary objective. Defining a range and the percentage of time expected to be within such range is the same as defining a target for inflation projection in a given horizon. Both forms are similar to defining a target in terms of the expected value and desired variance for in...

This paper presents some evidence on the current state of the banking system in Chile, with particular focus on the adjustments it must undergo to comply with the Basel II Capital Accord. We present some basic facts about the Chilean banking system and a brief international comparison. We consider separately local banks, the country's publicly owne...

Este trabajo muestra la equivalencia entre distintas formas de plantear el objetivo inflacionario. Definir un rango y el porcentaje del tiempo que se espera estar en él es lo mismo que definir una meta para la proyección de la inflación en un horizonte dado. Ambas formas son similares a definir la meta en términos del valor esperado y la varianza d...

Using a panel data of innovative Chilean firms, we obtain a private return for R&D expenditure close to 30% during the nineties. Despite the fact of being almost twice the return obtained for physical capital - 17 %, results show that R&D expenditure causes contemporaneous negative impacts over firms’ profits suggesting that a learning process is i...

This paper presents additional evidence on the international nature of the “Great Moderation:" the apparent structural decline in the variance of GDP growth first documented in the United States. We find evidence of a similar reduction in volatility in the other G-7 countries and Australia. However, the timing and nature of the moderation varies co...

This paper shows the equivalence between various ways of stating the inflation objective. Defining a target range and the percentage of the time it is hoped to fall within its borders is tantamount to defining a target for projected inflation over a given horizon. Both versions are similar to defining the goal in terms of expected value and the des...

Este artículo examina los actuales desbalances de la economía mundial, en particular el déficit de cuenta corriente de Estados Unidos y sus implicancias para el ajuste del tipo de cambio. Asimismo, comenta los efectos de los ajustes cambiarios en las economías emergentes, en especial sobre la reorientación probable de los flujos de capitales, la ev...

The first five years of the flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting regime in Chile have shown positive results. Inflation is under control, the exchange rate has moved with the external conditions, monetary policy has been countercyclical and the cycle has apparently smoothened. Even though exchange rate volatility has increased, as expecte...

(Disponible en idioma inglés) Los primeros cinco años del régimen de tipo de cambio flexible y la fijación de metas inflacionarias en Chile han arrojado resultados positivos. La inflación está controlada, el tipo de cambio ha evolucionado a la par de las condiciones externas, la política monetaria ha sido de tipo anticíclico y todo indica que el ci...

Los primeros cinco años del régimen de metas de inflación y tipo de cambio flexible en Chile han mostrado resultados positivos. La inflación ha estado bajo control, el tipo de cambio ha reflejado las condiciones externas, la política monetaria ha sido marcadamente contracíclica, y la amplitud del ciclo parece haberse moderado. Aunque durante este p...

This paper analyzes the Chilean experience with capital flows. We discuss the role played by capital controls, financial regulations and the exchange rate regime. The focus is on the period after 1990, the period when Chile returned to international capital markets. We also discuss the early 80s, where a currency collapse triggered a financial cris...

Este artículo revisa la experiencia chilena de crecimiento, con especial énfasis en el rápido crecimiento que comenzó a mediados de los años ochenta, cuando la economía se recuperaba de la crisis de 1982, para moderarse a fines de los noventa. También se analiza y se descompone la evidencia sobre el crecimiento y la actividad, revisando las fortale...

Este trabajo examina los determinantes del precio del cobre y de los términos de intercambio de la economía chilena, con particular detención en el impacto de los tipos de cambio reales de los países industriales. Asimismo, estima los efectos del nivel de actividad mundial sobre el precio del cobre y los términos de intercambio. Se concluye que, en...

Are natural resources a blessing or a curse? The authors present a model in which natural resources have a positive effect on the level of income and a negative effect on its growth rate. The positive and permanent effect on income implies a welfare gain. There is a growth effect stemming from a composition effect. However, the authors show that th...

Este artículo revisa las políticas de manejo cambiario en Chile, poniendo particular énfasis en el régimen de tipo de cambio flotante implementado en 1999 y los dos episodios de intervención cambiaria posteriores a este. Se presenta evidencia de las favorables condiciones existentes en Chile para enfrentar choques cambiarios: un sector financiero b...

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has long been a topic high on the policy agenda in emerging markets. The contribution of FDI to a country’s external financing and economic growth, the behaviour of multinational corporations, and the extent of regulation of FDI and other forms of capital flows are some of the issues on which policy-makers usually ha...

The paper reviews the exchange rate management experience in Chile, with particular emphasis on the floating exchange rate regime and its two forex intervention episodes. It presents evidence on Chile’s favorable conditions to face exchange rate shocks: a well-developed financial sector, that offers hedging opportunities taken up by the corporate s...

The paper reviews the exchange rate management experience in Chile, with particular emphasis on the floating exchange rate regime implemented in 1999 and its two forex intervention episodes. It presents evidence on Chile’s favorable conditions to deal with exchange rate shocks: a well-developed financial sector, that offers hedging opportunities ta...

This paper reviews the Chilean experience of growth, with particular focus on the rapid growth that began in the mid-1980s, as the economy recovered from the crisis of 1982. This process slowed down in the late nineties. This paper also reviews the evidence on growth and decomposes the rate of growth and the level of output into its components. It...

Este artículo presenta evidencia empírica para países de baja inflación donde M1 ha crecido por más de un año a un ritmo más rápido que la inflación. En ninguno de estos episodios ha habido un aumento similar de la inflación como sugeriría una aplicación directa de la versión más simple de la teoría cuantitativa del dinero. Esta evidencia confirma...

This paper analyzes the role productivity growth had on disinflation in Chile during the 1990s. It argues that productivity growth was key in avoiding the output costs of stabilization in a highly indexed economy. Disinflation from the early 1990s through 1998 was costless. Among the many external and domestic factors that contributed to good macro...

Este artículo revisa las políticas cambiarias pasadas en Chile, poniendo particular énfasis en el sistema de tipo de cambio flotante y los dos episodios en que el Banco Central ha intervenido en él. Presenta evidencia de las condiciones favorables de Chile para enfrentar los shocks cambiarios: un sector financiero bien desarrollado que ofrece oport...

Este artículo revisa la experiencia chilena de crecimiento, con especial énfasis en el rápido crecimiento que comenzó a mediados de los años ochenta, cuando la economía se recuperaba de la crisis de 1982, para moderarse a fines de los noventa. También se analiza y se descompone la evidencia sobre el crecimiento y la actividad, revisando las fortale...