José Alves

• Doctor of Philosophy
• Professor (Assistant) at Technical University of Lisbon

This paper examines the determinants of financial equity flows to investigate the role played by business cycles, government debt and sovereign rating scores, and whether the impact depends on the magnitude and direction of the flows. Using a new, richer dataset of flows among developed countries over 2001–2018, our key findings are as follows: (i)...

In this study, we empirically assess both linear and nonlinear relationships between the total tax burden and various tax items with real per capita GDP growth rates for 41 developing countries between 1990 and 2019. We use panel data techniques to valuate the impact of taxation, as a percentage of GDP, on economic growth in both the short and long...

Purpose We investigate the role of fiscal policy, through several measures of government revenues and expenditures and redistribution, on disposable and market income inequality and economic growth as well as the interaction between inequality and growth for 31 European countries from 1995 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach We use a simultaneous...

We assess the link between fiscal sustainability coefficients, namely the responses of the primary government balance and the global government balance to the debt‐to‐GDP ratio, and the response of government revenues to government expenditures. For 22 OECD developed countries we use annual data between 1950 and 2019. Other determinants of fiscal r...

This study examines the effects of the tax structure composition for public sector efficiency in a sample of 41 developing countries for the period between 1997–2019. We start by calculating Public Sector Performance (PSP) composite indicators and use them as outputs to compute Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency scores under different orien...

We review the secular stagnation hypothesis, first postulated by Hansen in 1939, to describe the current macroeconomic dynamics faced by developed economies. We argue that these economies are experiencing secular stagnation and that demographic factors play a significant role in this macroeconomic environment. Using a panel data analysis covering t...

This study examines the effects of the tax structure composition for public sector efficiency in a sample of 41 developing countries for the period between 1997-2019. We start by calculating Public Sector Performance (PSP) composite indicators and use them as outputs to compute data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency scores under different orien...

Does foreign aid enhance aggregate human welfare? This paper attempts to answer this question by using a panel data of 28 countries, covering the period of 1990 to 2014. It explores within-country variation by dividing the sample into low-income and middle-income countries and then uses a fixed effects estimator to control for the heterogeneity of...

We analyze the migration drivers within the European Union countries. For a set of 23 EU countries over the 1995-2019 period, we use Bayesian Model Averaging and quantile regression to assess notably the relevance of unemployment and earnings. We find that the existence of a common border increases the number of net migrants by 172 people per 1000...

We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The “need” to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the debt-stabilizing primary balance (provided by the IMF's Debt Sustain...

We assess the consequences of fiscal consolidation episodes on public sector efficiency (scores) for 35 OECD countries for the 2007-2020 period. We find that fiscal consolidations improve public sector efficiency and results are robust across efficiency models. Moreover, peripheral euro-area economies and economies with debt-to-GDP ratios betwee...

We consider a new dataset that provides a description of the population of financial equity flows between developed countries from 2001 to 2018. We follow the standard practice of controlling for pull and push factors as well as gravity-style variables, while also accounting for the business cycle, public debt and sovereign ratings. Our key finding...

We consider a new dataset that provides a description of the population of financial equity flows between developed countries from 2001 to 2018. We follow the standard practice of controlling for pull and push factors as well as gravity-style variables, while also accounting for the business cycle, public debt and sovereign ratings. Our key finding...

In this empirical study we assess both linear and nonlinear relationship between total taxation and several tax items with real per capita GDP growth rates for 43 developing countries between 1990 and 2019. We use panel data techniques to evaluate the effects of taxation on economic growth for both short and long run perspectives, and to find optim...

We empirically assess whether the negative response of private consumption and private investment to fiscal consolidation usually expected is reversed. We focus on a sample of 174 countries between 1970 and 2018 to determine episodes of fiscal consolidations using three alternative measures of the cyclically adjusted primary balance: (1) an Interna...

We empirically assess fiscal responses for 28 EU countries over the 1995Q1-2021Q2 period. At the same time, we evaluate the importance, for fiscal stance reactions, of notably the difference between economic growth and long-term interest rates. We find a positive response of the primary balance to an increase in government debt for the EU panel, im...

Our paper aims at analysing the relation between monetary policy (MP) and its transmission channels in both income and wealth inequality for the Euro Area between 1999 and 2017. We analysed three main representative MP channels (income, portfolio and earnings heterogeneity) that might explain how MP decisions may affect wealth and income distributi...

Our paper aims at analysing the relation between monetary policy and its transmission channels on both income and wealth inequality for the Euro Area. We analysed three different channels identified by the literature (Income, Portfolio and Earnings Heterogeneity) that might explain how monetary policy decisions may affect wealth and income distribu...

This study evaluates both the linear and non-linear relationships between individual tax revenues and real per capita growth. The analysis is carried out by using panel data techniques to assess the short- and long-term effects of taxation on economic growth for all of the OECD countries during a period that comprises the years between 1980 and 201...

In this study we assess the relationship between several tax items and consumption and income inequality levels. For OECD countries between 1980 and 2015 we use panel data techniques and find tax threshold values regarding inequality levels and consumption. In particular, we obtain threshold values for social security contributions between 9.50% an...

Does taxation structure have an impact on investment dynamics? In our paper we evaluate the share of tax revenues in GDP and investment outcomes, making use of gross fixed capital formation as a proxy for investment. This empirical analysis is carried out for all OECD countries, during the period of 1980-2015, to assess the tax system composition e...

Using a panel data set of the 28 EU countries from 1970 to 2015, we study the nature of monetary and fiscal policies of both respective authorities and assess how economic and institutional events influence each authority’s reaction functions. Our results show that, for the all period under analysis and controlling for institutional variables, infl...

We compute stock-flow adjustments (SFA) using sovereign balance sheet developments, and assess their effects on short and long-term interest rates for 14 European countries between 1970 and 2015, in a panel and SUR analysis. We find that an increase in SFA reduces long- and short-term interest rates, with higher reductions for short-term rates. Fur...

In this study we try to evaluate both linear and non-linear relationships between each tax item and real per capita growth. Our analysis, conducted for all the OECD countries between 1980 and 2015 and by resorting to panel data techniques in a short and long-term basis, evidences tax items threshold values for all tax components (except for taxes o...

Does foreign aid enhance aggregate human welfare? This paper attempts to answer this question by using a panel of twenty-eight countries, covering the period from 1990 to 2014. It explores intra-country variation by splitting the sample into low-income and middle-income countries. Combined with the fixed effects estimator, these approaches sought t...

In the present empirical analysis we try to assess the impact of taxation on investment growth. In particular, and by using gross fixed capital formation as a proxy for investment, we intend to evaluate the impact of the taxation structure in investment dynamics, in a short and a long-run perspectives. This empirical exercise was conducted for all...

As recognized, taxation is not only an instrument for government to collect revenues from the economic agents but also an instrument of fiscal policy to influence the agents' behaviour. In this work, we develop a DSGE model to assess the macroeconomic impact of three tax items (taxes on individual income, on firms' income and on consumption) on the...

In the present empirical analysis, we try to assess the impact of taxation on investment growth. In particular, and by using gross fixed capital formation as a proxy for investment, we intend to evaluate the impact of the taxation structure in investment dynamics, in a short and a long-run perspectives. This empirical exercise was conducted for all...

In the present empirical analysis, we try to assess the impact of taxation on investment growth. In particular, and by using gross fixed capital formation as a proxy for investment, we intend to evaluate the impact of the taxation structure in investment dynamics, in a short and a long-run perspectives. This empirical exercise was conducted for all...

The study of tax systems have been deeply discussed regarding the early modern period. However, there is a lack of comparative historical studies about the last two centuries in what respect the tax state developments. In our article we analyse the tax history of the last two hundred years for five countries, intending to analyse the mechanisms lev...

We analyse the impact of migration on the old-age pension system financial sustainability in Portugal, a country with one of the largest ageing populations in Europe. From demographic forecasts, and prospective exercises for the evolution of Portuguese economy, we compute the effects of replacement migration in the Portuguese old-age pension system...

We revisit Wagner’s law by function of government expenditure. Using data of 14 European countries between 1996 and 2013, we apply panel data and SUR methods to assess public expenditure–income elasticities. We find that some functions of government spending for a few countries (e.g. Austria, France, the Netherlands and Portugal) validate Wagner’s...

We study the effect of public debt on economic growth for annual and 5-year average growth rates, as well as the existence of non-linearity effects of debt on growth for 14 European countries from 1970 until 2012. We also consider debt-to-GDP ratio interactions with monetary, public finance, institutional and macroeconomic variables. Our results sh...

We study the effect of public debt on economic growth for annual and 5-year average growth rates, as well as the existence of non-linearity effects of debt on growth for 14 European countries from 1970 until 2012. We also consider debt-to-GDP ratio interactions with various subsets of monetary, public finance, institutional and macroeconomic variab...