Jos Timmermans

Jos Timmermans
Delft University of Technology | TU · Department of Multi Actor Systems

dr. ir.

About

47
Publications
7,419
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
259
Citations
Additional affiliations
March 2005 - April 2009
Erasmus University Rotterdam
Position
  • Senior Researcher

Publications

Publications (47)
Article
Full-text available
To deal with large uncertainties about future climate and socio-economic developments, planners in deltas are adopting an integrative and adaptive planning approach referred to as Adaptive Delta Management (ADM). Bangladesh has used the ADM approach for the development of its adaptive plan; Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100). The success of poli...
Article
Full-text available
While the severity of the climate crisis calls for a discussion on transformative and potentially disruptive change, science, engineering, design, governance and practice are currently too detached to effectively contribute to such discussions. The spatial manifestation of climate crisis rarely appeals to one’s imagination. Yet, when reviewing the...
Article
Full-text available
Coastal cities combine intensive socioeconomic activities and investments with high exposure to flood hazards. Developing effective strategies to manage flood risk in coastal cities is often a costly and complicated process. In designing strategies, engineers rely on computationally demanding flood simulation models, but they can only compare a lim...
Article
Full-text available
In designing and retrofitting infrastructure systems, engineers are increasingly confronted by uncertainties about the future operating conditions of these systems, stemming from climate change or rapid socio-economic development. Particularly for long-lived capital-intensive infrastructure components like pumping stations, current engineering prac...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Coastal cities combine intensive socio-economic activity and investments with high exposure to flood hazards. Developing effective strategies to manage flood risk in coastal cities is often a costly and complicated process. In the design of these strategies, engineers rely on computationally demanding flood simulation models and only comp...
Article
Full-text available
Deltas worldwide are under accelerating pressure of sea-level rise and hydrological extremes, but still thrive with unprecedented economic growth and urbanisation. Former high-end scenarios rapidly become thinkable futures that push delta interventions outside common delta management practice. TU Delft Delta Futures Lab brings scientific, public an...
Article
Full-text available
Burgers, ondernemers, bedrijven, gemeente, stadsdeel en de waterbeheerder ervaren hemelwater-en grondwateroverlast in de verstedelijkte Watergraafsmeer polder in het oosten van Amsterdam. Ook is, in het licht van klimaat verandering en stedelijke verdichtingsopgaven, het waarborgen van veiligheid tegen overstroming niet eenvoudig. In het programma...
Article
Full-text available
How can the Netherlands adapt to sea level rise on the long term: maintain, advance or retreat? This article compares the results of seven plans and designs from a diverse group of scholars and professionals that offer very different answers to this question. This diversity broadens the options, which is vital in this stage. Both problem solving an...
Article
Full-text available
Delta communities worldwide are facing a multitude of challenges in their life and livelihood. In many developing countries, improving the quality of life and livelihood is a key challenge. While development is a central goal of delta planning in such countries, the effectiveness of planning is challenged by uncertain changes in climate and socio-e...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Uncertain socioeconomic development, biophysical processes and natural disasters in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh continuously transform the state of the socio-ecological system, which challenges local livelihood opportunities to be sustainable. Farmers living in the polders of delta make decisions on their livelihood in response to the changing s...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a...
Article
Full-text available
Adaptive policies have emerged as a valuable strategy for dealing with uncertainties by recognising the capacity of systems to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises. The efficacy of adaptive policies hinges on detecting on-going change and ensuring that actions are indeed taken if and when necessary. This is operationalised by includin...
Article
Full-text available
Large, complex coastal regions often require a combination of interventions to lower the risk of flooding to an acceptable level. In practice, a limited number of strategies are considered and interdependencies between interventions are often simplified. This paper presents the Multiple Lines of Defence Optimization System (MODOS)‐model. This quick...
Article
Full-text available
What if sea level rises with 10 meters? This question has created a whole new genre of fiction: cli-fi. It also inspired water management engineer Geert van der Meulen to design a radically different adaptation pathway strategy for the Netherlands. A spectacular mapping exercise visualises a gradual retreat strategy, provocatively building on the c...
Chapter
This chapter introduces the transactional approach to actor modelling. Applications of the transactional approach, be it analytic, participative, or advocative, follow a similar step-wise approach directed toward the development of a transactional model of the decision arena addressed. The development and use of a transactional model was explained...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Adaptive Delta Management as a promising policymaking approach has been embarked in many deltas to deal with future uncertainty. Bangladesh is on her way to develop scenario-based water-centric adaptive delta plan. So, analysis of relevant uncertainties of the complex dynamic delta system is essential and it requires a framework. We applied XLRM fr...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This research aims to inform how uncertain factors including community response have triggered adaptation tipping points in the historical pathway of delta management in the southwest of Bangladesh. We applied the concept of Adaptation Tipping Points to analyze the co-evolution of community engagement and water management approaches in historical p...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multi-ethnic) perspectives....
Research
Full-text available
Under the moniker of Adaptive Delta Management (ADM), adaptive policy making moved from science to practice within 10 years. This fast uptake of scientific work in policy analysis, was enabled by the development of the Dutch Delta Program that incorporated ADM as its main conceptual framework from its inception in 2010. The rapid absorption of ADM...
Research
Full-text available
Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multi-ethnic) perspectives....
Research
Full-text available
Combining ADM approaches and cultural characteristics
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multi-ethnic) perspectives....
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Under the moniker of Adaptive Delta Management (ADM), adaptive policy making moved from science to practice within 10 years. This fast uptake of scientific work in policy analysis, was enabled by the development of the Dutch Delta Program that incorporated ADM as its main conceptual framework from its inception in 2010. The rapid absorption of ADM...
Article
This article describes the theoretical development and empirical evaluation of an instrument to assess the personality and leadership profiles of policy entrepreneurs in sustainability transitions. Using insights from psychology and leadership theory, the study aims to identify personality and leadership characteristics that predispose an individua...
Article
In the wake of a rapidly changing world, cities need to cope with global threats and opportunities, and changing societal demands regarding living standards in cities. These are urgent issues for mega cities in the global South, and are becoming increasingly relevant for the more consolidated cities in the North. In the Watergraafsmeer area, a low-...
Article
Full-text available
In the Nature article 'A safe operating space for humanity', Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the idea of a safe space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the 'Holocene state'. Rockström et al. have identified nine earth-system processes and associated thresholds which, if crossed, are expected to generate unacceptable enviro...
Article
Full-text available
In the Nature article 'A safe operating space for humanity', Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the concept of a safe operating space for humanity. A safe operating space is the space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the 'Holocene state' that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive. Rockström et al. have iden...
Article
Full-text available
Recent developments in the policy sciences emphasize the social environment in which decisions are made. The ‘network metaphor’ is often used to describe the key role of interactions between interdependent actors involved in decision making. These interactions take place in a policy arena drawn up by actors with an interest in and control over deci...
Article
Full-text available
After an introduction of the theoretical framework and concepts of transi- tion studies, this article gives an overview of how structural change in social systems has been studied from various disciplinary perspectives. This overview first leads to the conclusion that computational and mathematical approaches and their practical form, modeling, up...
Article
Full-text available
Coleman's equilibrium model of social development, the Linear System of Action, is extended to cover the dynamics of societal transitions. The model im- plemented has the characteristics of a dissipative system. A variation and selection algorithm favoring the retention of relatively dependent actors forces the system away from equilibrium, while e...
Article
Full-text available
This paper aims to illustrate how social sciences, sociology in particular, have theorized on societal transitions. The first section introduces some preliminary definitions. The assumption is that a societal transition is more than a social, economic ...
Article
Recent developments in the policy sciences emphasize the social environment in which decisions are made. The ‘network metaphor’ is often used to describe the key role of interactions between interdependent actors involved in decision making. These interactions take place in a policy arena drawn up by actors with an interest in and control over dec...
Article
Full-text available
We report on an experimental assessment of the applicability of Coleman's Linear System of Action (LSA) to policy negotiations. In LSA, policy negotiations are modeled as exchange of control over issues. LSA allows one to compute the equilibrium control distribution for a group of decision makers, based on their distributions of preferences for, an...
Article
Full-text available
Purposive Interaction in Multi-Actor Decision Making; Operationalizing Coleman's Linear System of Action for Policy Decision Support, started out with a ball and a web, a policy domain moved by a network of actors. How can the ball maintain its pace? Who are the actors that make the difference? How can policy annalists support them in moving the de...
Article
Full-text available
Regional authorities in coastal zones need to be supported in identifying the relevant stakeholders, their objectives, and means to resolve conflicting interests that have adverse impacts on the marine environment and sustainable development. We developed a Multi-Actor Information System (MAIS) that provides this type of support to regional authori...
Article
Full-text available
Planning of infrastructures typically involves many organizations with conflicting interests and diverging control over crucial issues, such as technological and social safety, economic potential, and environmental concerns. Traditional planning assumes that all conflicts must, and can, be resolved and that the resulting master plan represents a co...
Article
Full-text available
Introduction At the start of a complex negotiation process, the relevant issues and actors to join the negotiation process have to be identified. Although the need to identify issues and actors for negotiations has been acknowledged (Lim 1999, Thiessen Loucks and Stedinger 1998, Rangaswamy and Shell 1997) and discussed (Keeney 1992) in the literatu...

Network

Cited By

Projects

Projects (4)
Project
Developing pilot adaptive delta management plans for the Ganges-Brahmaputra and Ciliwung Deltas which is able to cope with uncertain future socio-economic developments and climate change. We will develop these plans according to two intertwined research approaches: a model based approach and an interactive approach focusing on the participation of experts, stakeholders, and policy makers.