Jorge Molina Carpio

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• Master of Science
• Professor at Higher University of San Andrés

En la presentación se intenta responder a dos preguntas: ¿Hay agua disponible para los proyectos de explotación de litio en el Suroeste de Potosí? ¿Es sustentable el uso de los recursos hídricos de la región para esos proyectos? Las respuestas a esas preguntas se basan en un análisis crítico de los datos disponibles de oferta y demanda de agua para...

In the last 40 years, trends in heat wave frequency, intensity, and duration have increased steadily around the world. These intense heat waves were characterized persistent atmospheric blocking episode, with a continuous presence of a warm air mass and lack of rain for several consecutive days, that contributed to pronounced positive temperature a...

The teleconnections between El Niño-Southern Oscillation ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Tropical North Atlantic warming (+TNA) play a critical role in characterizing extreme drought events in the Amazon Basin (AB). This study examines the seven most recent drought extreme events up to 2023, using seasonal composites of the sea surface te...

Drought-related impacts in the southern Tropical Andes are crucial for economic activities. Here, precipitation decreases (p < 0.1) during the dry-to-wet transition season (SON) based on CHIRPS (1981–2023) and meteorological stations (1973–2016). In addition, a decline in specific humidity and moisture flux is detected (1979–2022). The precipitatio...

Rising in the Andes, the Madeira River drains the southwestern part of the Amazon basin. With a drainage basin of 1,370,000 km2 and an elevation range of 20–6450 m a.s.l., the Madeira is the second largest tributary of the Amazon and provides half of its sediment load (426 Mt/yr). As a result of its physiography, location, and Andean origin, the ba...

This study assesses the relative performance of Sentinel-1 and -2 and their combination with topographic information for plow agricultural land soil salinity mapping. A learning database made of 255 soil samples’ electrical conductivity (EC) along with corresponding radar (R), optical (O), and topographic (T) information derived from Sentinel-2 (S2...

Este estudio tuvo como objetivo identificar regiones de lluvia homogéneas dentro de la cuenca alta del río Madeira (Bolivia, Perú y Brasil), que abarca 975.000 km2 y tiene un rango de elevación de 50 a 6450 m s. n. m. Para ello, se usaron series mensuales de 146 estaciones terrestres de los 3 países. Sin imponer restricciones espaciales, el análisi...

This chapter provides summaries of the 2023 temperature and precipitation conditions across seven broad regions: North America, Central America and the Caribbean, South America, Africa, Europe and the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. In most cases, summaries of notable weather events are also included. The base period used for these analyses is 1991...

Soil salinization will affect 50% of global cropland areas by 2050 and represents a major threat to agricultural production and food sovereignty. As soil salinity monitoring is costly and time consuming, many regions of the world undertake very limited soil salinity observation (in space and time), preventing the accurate assessment of soil salinit...

The 2022-23 hydrological year in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopó hydrological system (TDPS) over the South American Altiplano constituted a historically dry period. This drought was particularly severe during the pre-wet season (October–December), when the TDPS and the adjacent Andean-Amazon region experienced as much as 60% re...

The WMO State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2023, is the fourth edition of climate reports published annually for this region and has involved National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), and several research institutions, as well as United Nations agencies, international and re...

Several recent studies have evidenced the relevance of machine-learning for soil salinity mapping using Sentinel-2 reflectance as input data and field soil salinity measurement (i.e., Electrical Conductivity-EC) as the target. As soil EC monitoring is costly and time consuming, most learning databases used for training/validation rely on a limited...

Se presenta un análisis de las causas que llevaron a la reducción extrema de niveles del lago Titicaca en 2023. Se muestra que el descenso del nivel del lago se produjo después del 2002 y particularmente, después de 2012. Se presenta también una alternativa de adaptación, entre varias posibles, a las sequías en el Altiplano. Abstract: The causes th...

This chapter provides summaries of the 2022 temperature and precipitation conditions across seven broad regions: North America, Central America and the Caribbean, South America, Africa, Europe and the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. In most cases, summaries of notable weather events are also included. Local scientists provided the annual summary fo...

This study proposes a method for downscaling the spatial resolution of daily satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs) from 10 km to 1 km. The method deliberates a set of variables that have close relationships with daily precipitation events in a Random Forest (RF) regression model. The considered variables include cloud optical thickness (CO...

Six gridded temperature datasets (T‐datasets) were evaluated for the first time over the South American continent, through the case study of Bolivia, by comparing them with temperature records acquired from 82 meteorological stations spanning the 1995–2010 period. The comparisons were carried out at the daily time step considering different seasons...

Identifying rainfall regions associated with specific modes of variability is of practical interest for water resources management, seasonal forecasting, and mitigation of weather‐related risks. This study aims to identify homogeneous rainfall regions within the ~1 million km² Upper Madeira River basin—southwestern Amazon—by their interannual and d...

During the austral winter (June–August) of 2021, the meteorological services of Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Chile all issued forecasts for unusually cold conditions. Record-low minimum temperatures and cold spells were documented, including one strong cold wave episode that affected 5 countries. In this study, we define a cold w...

Antecedentes El acelerado crecimiento de la población humana y los cambios de uso de suelo por la consecuente expansión de las actividades agrícolas, pecuarias e industriales, sumado a los efectos del calentamiento global, han contribuido a la rápida degradación del recurso hídrico y de los ecosistemas acuáticos, indispensables para nuestro bienest...

Amazonian deforestation has accelerated during the last decade, threatening an ecosystem where almost one third of the regional rainfall is transpired by the local rainforest. Due to precipitation recycling, the southwestern Amazon, including the Amazon-Andes transition region, is particularly sensitive to forest loss. This study evaluates the impa...

The Madeira River rises in the Andes, draining the southwestern Amazon basin and contributing up to 50% of the Amazon River sediment load. The Porto Velho station monitors the Upper Madeira basin and is located just downstream of the Jirau and Santo Antonio hydropower dams. At this station, decreasing trend (p<0.10) of the surface suspended sedimen...

During September–November 2020, the meteorological services of Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia reported record‐high maximum temperatures in several warm spells during this season. Positive and significant trends in heat wave frequency, intensity, and duration have been recorded since the 1980s, particularly in large cities. In this s...

This chapter provides summaries of the 2020 temperature and precipitation conditions across seven broad regions: North America, Central America and the Caribbean, South America, Africa, Europe and the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. In most cases, summaries of notable weather events are also included. Local scientists provided the annual summary fo...

The State of the Climate (SoC) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) report for 2020 is released under the auspices of the WMO Regional Association of South America and the Regional Association of North America Central America and the Caribbean. It focuses on a set of up-to-date key climate indicators, climate trends, and extreme weather and cli...

State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2020 represents the first multi-agency effort involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), research institutions, and international and regional organizations. A multidisciplinary group of 40 experts developed and reviewed this repor...

El presente trabajo evalúa el impacto del cambio climático en la ocurrencia de sequías para las cuencas del Lago Titicaca, Río Desaguadero y Lago Poopo (Sistema TDPS). Para tal objetivo, se comparan los resultados de los modelos climáticos para el periodo 1984-2014 con los datos observados y se evalúan las proyecciones en el periodo 2034-2064. El e...

Amazonian deforestation has accelerated during the last decade, threatening an ecosystem where almost one third of the regional rainfall is transpired by the local rainforest. Due to the precipitation recycling, the southwestern Amazon, including the Amazon-Andes transition region, is particularly sensitive to forest loss. This study evaluates the...

This paper provides an updated review of the most relevant scientific literature related to the hydroclimate of the Andes. The Andes, the longest cordillera in the world, faces major challenges regarding climate variability and climate change, which impose several threats to sustainable development, including water supply and the sustainability of...

The impact of climate change on droughts in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopo basins (TDPS system) within the Altiplano region was evaluated by comparing projected 2034–2064 and observed 1984–2014 hydroclimate time series. The study used bias-corrected monthly climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercom...

Se presenta un análisis de la influencia que tuvieron las condiciones climáticas sobre los incendios de 2019 y se las compara con las de 2020. Se evalúa también las tendencias climáticas en la Chiquitanía y el sur de la cuenca del río Madera durante los últimos 38 años y cómo podrían influir en el riesgo de incendios a corto y mediano plazo.

This is a short note on the climate factors associated to the fires that devastated regions of the Bolivian lowlands in 2019. Part of the text was included in chapter 7 of the annual report State of the Climate in 2019 (https://doi.org/10.1175/2020BAMSStateoftheClimate.1), published by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Esta nota...

This section of the State of Climate in 2019 report provides summaries of the 2019 temperature and precipitation conditions across central South America. This region includes Brazil, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia. Summaries of notable weather events and their impacts are also included, together with a sidebar on “Fires in southern Amazonia in the dry...

This article assesses the consistency of the satellite precipitation estimate CHIRPS v.2 to describe the spatiotemporal rainfall variability in the La Plata Basin (LPB), the second largest hydrographic basin in South America, by (a) pixel-to-point comparison of CHIRPS data with 167 observed monthly precipitation time series using three pairwise met...

Numerous satellite‐based precipitation datasets have been successively made available. Their precipitation estimates rely on clouds properties derived from microwave and thermal sensors in a so‐named ‘top‐down’ approach. Recently, a ‘bottom‐up’ approach to infer precipitation from soil moisture (SM) estimates has resulted in the release of two new...

The western Amazon and eastern flank of the Andes form what is known as the Amazon-Andes transition region. This region is characterized by the presence of the rainiest area in the Amazon basin with an average precipitation ranging from 6000 to 7000 mm per year. This rainy zone is the result of interactions between large-scale circulation and local...

The Andes is the longest cordillera in the world and extends from northern South America to the southern extreme of the continent (from 11°N to 53°S). The Andes runs through seven countries and is characterized by a wide variety of ecosystems strongly related to the contrasting climate over its eastern and western sides, as well as along its latitu...

The GMET (Gridded Meteorological Tool) has been used for the elaboration of the Surface Water Balance of Bolivia 2017, with satisfactory results on a national scale in terms of estimation of rainfall spatial distribution. GMET uses two major calculation processes: logistic regression and determination of correlated random fields. Currently this met...

Study region: Upper Madeira Basin (975,500 km 2) in Southern Amazonia, which is suffering a biophysical transition, involving deforestation and changes in rainfall regime. Study focus: The evolution of the runoff coefficient (Rc: runoff/rainfall) is examined as an indicator of the environmental changes (1982-2017). New hydrological insights for the...

Fluvial sediment dynamics plays a key role in the Amazonian environment, with most of the sediments originating in the Andes. The Madeira River, the second largest tributary of the Amazon River, contributes up to 50% of its sediment discharge to the Atlantic Ocean, most of it provided by the Andean part of the Madeira basin, in particular the Beni...

Se presentan los resultados mas relevantes del análisis del componente técnico y de ingeniería del estudio de identificación (EI) del proyecto Chepete-Bala, realizado por la consultora Geodata Engineering para la Empresa Nacional de Electricidad (ENDE). Se incluyen algunas conclusiones sobre la viabilidad del proyecto. El trabajo se realizó en el m...

Esta publicación es el Resumen Ejecutivo del análisis realizado por investigadores de la UMSA sobre el Estudio de Identificacion del proyecto de generación de energía de las represas de Chepete y Bala, en la Amazonía de Bolivia. El trabajo se realizó a solicitud de la Mancomunidad indígena de los rios Beni, Tuichi y Quiquibey.

We present a characterization of the climate of the humid Andes region and its spatial variability, with emphasis on the altitude range from 2,000 to 4,000 m. Through the analysis of daily and hourly climate records we could identify the dominant atmospheric processes in the Andean basin of the Beni River and Yungas. It was found that most of the m...

We present a characterization of the climate of the humid Andes region and its spatial variability, with emphasis on the altitude range from 2,000 to 4,000 m. Through the analysis of daily and hourly climate records we could identify the dominant atmospheric processes in the Andean basin of the Beni River and Yungas. It was found that most of the m...

The Madeira River is the second largest Amazon tributary, contributing up to 50% of the Amazon River’s sediment load. The Madeira has significant hydropower potential, which has started to be used by the Madeira Hydroelectric Complex (MHC), with two large dams along the middle stretch of the river. In this study, fine suspended sediment concentrati...

This paper proposes a protocol to assess the space–time consistency of 12 satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) according to various indicators, including (i) direct comparison of SPPs with 72 precipitation gauges; (ii) sensitivity of streamflow modelling to SPPs at the outlet of four basins; and (iii) the sensitivity of distributed snow mo...

Análisis multidisciplinario sobre los impactos del cambio climático en el Norte de La Paz. Los análisis abordan enfoques históricos, sociales, culturales, de género, ambientales, físicos, climáticos y técnicos sobre el cambio climático en esta región.

This paper proposes a protocol to assess the space-time consistency of satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) according to various indicators including: (i) direct comparison of SPEs with 72 precipitation gauges; (ii) sensitivity of streamflow modelling to SPEs at the outlet of four basins; and (iii) the sensitivity of distributed snow models to...

The results of two impact assessment studies on water resources in Bolivia are presented. The aim of the first study “Adapting to climate change in communities from the Bolivian central Altiplano” was to establish water resources availability and water demand in the study area for different climate change and water management scenarios, in order to...

We propose to establish a comprehensive hydroclimate research program, as a prospective GEWEX Regional Hydroclimate Project (RHP), for the Andes of South America (ANDEX). It aims at understanding, modelling and predicting the dynamics of the water and energy cycles over the Andes, from north to south, and from west to east, at a wide range of tempo...

Se presenta el estado actual de proyectos hidroeléctricos grandes y medianos en la Amazonia boliviana, todos ellos a cargo de la Empresa Nacional de Electricidad (ENDE). Al final de la presentación, se plantean algunas interrogantes

Se presenta el proyecto PHYBAAM y sus primeros resultados sobre el clima y la hidrología de la cuenca andina del río Beni. Incluye un análisis preliminar sobre la variabilidad espacio-temporal y sus causas.

The Madeira River is the second largest tributary of the Amazon River. It contributes approximately 13% of the Amazon River flow and it may contribute up to 50% of its sediment discharge to the Atlantic Ocean. Until now, the suspended sediment load of the Madeira River was not well known and was estimated in a broad range from 240 to 715 Mt yr⁻¹. S...

The new IMERG and GSMaP-v6 satellite rainfall estimation (SRE) products from the GPM mission have been available since January 2015. With a finer spatial resolution of 0.1°, these products should provide more accurate information than their latest widely adapted (relatively coarser spatial scale, 0.25°) counterpart (TMPA product). The present study...

In May 2016, a new Digital Elevation Model (DEM) called ALOS-DEM was made available by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). With a resolution of 30 m the ALOS-DEM bring valuable information over remote regions. The ALOS-DEM is assessed for the first time and over the South American Andean Plateau considering both vertical and relative acc...

Resumen El río Katari es un tributario del lago Titicaca y al mismo tiempo emisario de los efluentes pluviales y sanitarios de la ciudad de El Alto por medio de su afluente el río Pallina. Se contó con un registro de niveles en la estación hidrológica de Tambillo, casi completo para el periodo 1973-2012. Sin embargo, el limitado número de aforos (2...

Rising in the Andes, the Madeira River drains the southwestern part of the Amazon basin, which is characterized by high geographical, biological and climatic diversity. This study uses daily records to assess the spatio-temporal runoff variability in the Madeira sub-basins. Results show that inter-annual variability of both discharge and rainfall d...

La presentación describe las causas de la crisis del agua en la ciudad de La Paz y hace previsiones de lo que podría ocurrir para el 2017.

In 2015, an emergency state was declared in Bolivia when Poopó Lake dried up. Climate variability and the increasing need for water are potential factors responsible for this situation. Because field data are missing over the region, no statements are possible about the influence of mentioned factors. This study is a preliminary step toward the und...

Análisis preliminar de la nueva alternativa del megaproyecto hidroeléctrico Chepete-Bala, presentado en sesión de la Academia Nacional de Ciencias de Bolivia. El análisis se basa en los estudios de identificación (2016) elaborados por la consultora Geodata para el Gobierno boliviano (ENDE). Se presentan algunas conclusiones sobre la viabilidad econ...

Previously available only over the Continental United States (CONUS), the 1 arc-second mesh size (spatial resolution) SRTM-GL1 (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission – Global 1) product has been freely available worldwide since November 2014. With a relatively small mesh size, this digital elevation model (DEM) provides valuable topographic information...

Le Service National d’Observation HYBAM sur les grands fleuves du bassin Atlantique : un dispositif de recherche en coopération Sud-Sud-Nord

This study uses a comprehensive data base built on ground stations to assess the spatio-temporal precipitation and temperature variability and trends for the period 1961-2014 in the Central Andes Altiplano.

The extreme 2014 flood in South-Western Amazon basin

Este estudio presenta los resultados de una simulación del sistema hídrico de los ríos Mauri y Desaguadero (Altiplano central de Sudámerica) para diferentes escenarios de gestión del agua y cambio climático. Para ello se usó el modelo matemático Mike Basin para ocho escenarios del informe AR4 del IPCC. El Altiplano es una región sensible a la varia...

Nine satellite rainfall estimations (SREs) were evaluated for the first time over the South American Andean plateau watershed by comparison with rain gauge data acquired between 2005 and 2007. The comparisons were carried out at the annual, monthly and daily time steps. All SREs reproduce the salient pattern of the annual rain field, with a marked...

Resumo: Six products of satellite rainfall estimation were evaluated by comparison with rainfall gauges data acquired between 2005 and 2007 in the Andean Altiplano watershed. Comparisons were done on annual, monthly, 15 days and daily time scales. The results differ from one product to another and in function of the considered time scale. The evalu...

The new Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM v2) has been available since 17 October 2011. With a resolution of approximately 30 m, this model should provide more accurate information than the latest version of Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM v4) with a resolution of 90 m outside of the USA. The accuracies of these two recently released dig...

Unprecedented wet conditions are reported in the 2014 summer (December–March) in South-western Amazon, with rainfall about 100% above normal. Discharge in the Madeira River (the main southern Amazon tributary) has been 74% higher than normal (58 000 m3 s−1) at Porto Velho and 380% (25 000 m3 s−1) at Rurrenabaque, at the exit of the Andes in summer,...

El lago Titicaca es el principal cuerpo de agua del Altiplano, un sistema hídrico endorreico de los Andes centrales de Sudamérica. Es el lago navegable más alto del mundo, con una superficie media de 8250 km2 y una cuenca de aporte que se extiende sobre un área de 57000 km2. El lago está sometido a fuertes presiones antrópicas que ponen en riesgo s...

Observatorio ORE HYBAM en la cuenca Amazónica, importancia del Observatorio como hierramienta de investigación

RESUMEN El frágil equilibrio del sistema hídrico del Altiplano central de Sudamérica y las crecientes presiones antrópicas motivaron a los gobiernos de Perú y Bolivia a realizar estudios extensivos que culminaron en un Plan Director Binacional (1993) que definió el caudal medio anual que se podría aprovechar en todo el sistema sin poner en riesgo s...

The Mauri river basin is shared by Bolivia, Peru and Chile. It is located on the South American Altiplano, an endorreic high plateau situated above 3600 m. Water from the Mauri River and some of its tributaries started to be diverted and transferred to the Pacific coast more than a century ago. It is used there for irrigation, water supply and more...

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The Bolivian Amazon lowlands account for about 700 fish species and sustain productive fisheries which are important for food security and local employment. A large part of the region still maintains a high conservation value and most aquatic habitats have a healthy status. However, Amazon fish species and fisheries are increasingly threatened by a...

El Proyecto “Fortaleciendo la capacidad y Desarrollo de Estrategias y Adaptación a los Fenómenos de Cambio Climático en Comunidades de Montaña de la cordillera real de los Andes Centrales de Bolivia” se inició en 2009 con el apoyo y financiamiento del Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo (IDRC, por sus siglas en inglés) del Canadá. El objet...

PRÓLOGO PRESENTACIÓN PARTE I: LA AMAZONÍA BOLIVIANA 1. Régimen hidrológico del río Madera y de sus tributarios (Molina Carpio, J. & P. Vauchel) 2. Patrones espaciales de inundación en la cuenca amazónica de Bolivia (Crespo, A. & P.A. Van Damme) 3. Funcionamiento hidráulico del río Madera en la zona de cachuelas (Molina Carpio, J.) PARTE II: MAMÍFER...

El Altoandino húmedo se define como la región intertropical situada entre los 2000 y 4000 m de altitud, que recibe precipitaciones abundantes. Se extiende a lo largo de 4000 km desde Venezuela a Bolivia. Para el presente estudio, se recopilaron y trataron los registros de 53 estaciones climatológicas ubicadas en la cuenca andina del río Beni en Bol...

SUMMARY The Madeira River is the main tributary of the Amazon River in both terms of flow and its length. This chapter describes the hydrological characteristics of the Madeira River and its major tributaries. The hydrological regime of the rivers within the Madera basin is monomodal, with well defined wet and dry seasons following the rainfall per...

Physical, hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the Madeira River rapids stretch, between Guayaramerín and Porto Velho, play a decisive role in the impacts that could occur with the construction of a hydroelectric dam in this area. This river stretch is hydraulically and morphologically different from upstream stretchs in Bolivia and Peru (...

The hydraulic functioning of some of the components of the Jirau and Santo Antonio dams on the Madeira River and their effectiveness for the upstream and downstream passage of fishes is analysed. The study was carried out on the spillways and turbines design included in the feasibility and environmental impact assessment studies and also on a fishw...

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During the last decade several initiatives aiming at conserving and protecting the water provision of Andean ecosystems have started. However, their implementation has faced a number of limitations on the technical side, mainly due to the lack of knowledge of hydrological processes and Andean-specific developed and tested hydrological models for sc...