Jorge Macías

• Dr
• Professor (Full) at University of Malaga

Mass movements at Stromboli volcano (Aeolian islands, Italy) have the capability of generating tsunamis, potentially affecting not only the island shores, but the whole Aeolian archipelago and the Southern Tyrrhenian sea. Such mass movements can be associated with subaerial and subaqueous slope instabilities of the Sciara del Fuoco, and with pyrocl...

11 Dipartimento nazionale della Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy (Luigi.DAngelo@protezionecivile.it) 12 Instituto Geográfico Nacional, Madrid, Spain (cgonzalezign@transportes.gob.es) * A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract NEAM-COMMITMENT is a two-year project funded by the European Commission's DG-ECHO, starting in 2025. We will...

The formation and development of a small Mediterranean deltaic system are investigated through a primary seismic stratigraphic interpretation of a high-resolution seismic profile network, combined with multiple bathymetric data (including multibeam bathymetric imagery) and collated with shallow sediment cores collected with a vibro-corer device. Th...

Tsunamis are rare events involving several complex physical phenomena. Due to this complexity and the relative scarcity of observations, tsunami research makes extensive use of numerical simulations. For seismogenic tsunamis, the source is often modeled as an instantaneous sea‐floor displacement (IS), while the tsunami propagation and inundation is...

Este manual recoge el material utilizado en la asignatura "Modelado Matemático" del grado en Ciencias Ambien-tales impartido en la Universidad de Málaga. Se presentan modelos matemáticos básicos en la simulación numérica de fenómenos naturales. En particular, se usan modelos deterministas de ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias para la evolución de...

Tsunamis are rare, destructive events, whose generation, propagation and coastal impact processes involve several complex physical phenomena. Most tsunami applications, like probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, make extensive use of large sets of numerical simulations, facing a systematic trade-off between the computational costs and the modell...

The EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE) develops exascale transition capabilities in the domain of SolidEarth, an area of geophysics rich in computational challenges embracing different approaches to exascale (capability, capacity and urgent computing). The first implementation phase of the project (ChEESE-1P; 2018-2022) ad...

The evolution of High-Performance Computing (HPC) platforms enables the design and execution of progressively larger and more complex workflow applications in these systems. The complexity comes not only from the number of elements that compose the workflows but also from the type of computations they perform. While traditional HPC workflows target...

Real-time local tsunami warnings embody uncertainty from unknowns in the source definition within the first minutes after the tsunami generates. In general, Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS) provide a quick estimate for tsunami action from deterministic simulations of a single event. In this study, variability in tsunami source parameters has been incl...

The application of simulation software has proven to be a crucial tool for tsunami hazard assessment studies. Understanding the potentially devastating effects of tsunamis leads to the development of safety and resilience measures, such as the design of evacuation plans or the planning of the economic investment necessary to quickly mitigate their...

Tsunamis constitute a significant hazard for European coastal populations, and the impact of tsunami events worldwide can extend well beyond the coastal regions directly affected. Understanding the complex mechanisms of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation, as well as managing the tsunami risk, requires multidisciplinary research and inf...

Operational TEWS play a key role in reducing tsunami impact on populated coastal areas around the world in the event of an earthquake-generated tsunami. Traditionally, these systems in the NEAM region have relied in the implementation of Decision Matrices. The very short arrival times of the tsunami waves from generation to impact in this region...

The evolution of High-Performance Computing (HPC) platforms enables the design and execution of progressively larger and more complex workflow applications in these systems. The complexity comes not only from the number of elements that compose the workflows but also from the type of computations they perform. While traditional HPC workflows target...

The evolution of High-Performance Computing (HPC) platforms enables the design and execution of progressively larger and more complex workflow applications in these systems. The complexity comes not only from the number of elements that compose the workflows but also from the type of computations they perform. While traditional HPC workflows target...

In seismically active regions with variable dominant focal mechanisms, there is considerable tsunami inundation height uncertainty. Basic earthquake source parameters such as dip, strike, and rake affect significantly the tsunamigenic potential and the tsunami directivity. Tsunami inundation is also sensitive to other properties such as bottom fric...

The Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee of the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program convened a workshop in January 2017 to evaluate the present state of numerical models for the simulation of tsunamis generated by submarine or subaerial landslides. A range of benchmark tests were provided to participants, with three tests emphasized: (i) a l...

Megathrust earthquakes are strongly influenced by the elastic properties of rocks surrounding the fault. In contrast to friction, these properties can be derived in situ from geophysical measurements along the seismogenic zone. However, they are often overestimated in numerical simulations, particularly in the shallow megathrust. Here we explore th...

Tsunami warning centres face the challenging task of rapidly forecasting tsunami threat immediately after an earthquake, when there is high uncertainty due to data deficiency. Here we introduce Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) for tsunami early warning. PTF explicitly treats data- and forecast-uncertainties, enabling alert level definitions...

Tsunamis are triggered by sudden seafloor displacements, and usually originate from seismic activity at faults. Nevertheless, strike-slip faults are usually disregarded as major triggers, as they are thought to be capable of generating only moderate seafloor deformation; accordingly, the tsunamigenic potential of the vertical throw at the tips of s...

A marine hazard is a potentially damaging event, phenomenon or activity in the marine environment that may cause loss of human life, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. In the last 30 years, natural and human-induced hazards have caused over 1.6 million victims and the economic losses average 300 thousand million dollars pe...

Offshore geological hazards can occur in any marine domain or environment and represent a serious threat to society, the economy, and the environment. Seismicity, slope sedimentary instabilities, submarine volcanism, fluid flow processes, and bottom currents are considered here because they are the most common hazardous processes; tsunamis are also...

Megathrust earthquakes are strongly influenced by the elastic properties of rocks surrounding the fault. However, these properties are often overestimated in numerical simulations, particularly in the shallow megathrust. Here we explore the influence that realistic depth-varying upper-plate elastic properties along the megathrust have on earthquake...

We present a benchmark study aimed at identifying the most effective modeling approach for tsunami generation, propagation, and hazard in an active volcanic context, such as the island of Stromboli (Italy). We take as a reference scenario the 2002 landslide-generated tsunami event at Stromboli simulated to assess the relative sensitivity of numeric...

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theor...

Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Itali...

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculati...

Tsunamis are triggered by sudden seafloor displacements, and usually originate from seismic activity at faults. Nevertheless, strike-slip faults are usually disregarded as major triggers, as they are thought to be capable of generating only moderate seafloor deformation; accordingly, the tsunamigenic potential of the vertical throw at the tips of s...

The final aim of the present work is to propose a NTHMP-benchmarked numerical tool for landslide-generated tsunami hazard assessment. To achieve this, the novel Multilayer-HySEA model is validated using laboratory experiment data for landslide-generated tsunamis. In particular, this second part of the work deals with granular slides, while the firs...

This paper is devoted to benchmarking the Multilayer-HySEA model using laboratory experimental data for landslide-generated tsunamis. This article deals with rigid slides, and the second part, in a companion paper, addresses granular slides. The US National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (NTHMP) has proposed the experimental data used and es...

When tsunamigenic events are simulated in deep to moderately deep waters, frequency dispersion effects may become mandatory. In the framework of dispersive systems, non-hydrostatic pressure type models have been shown to be able to describe weakly dispersive waves [2,3]. Although promising results begin to glimpse nowadays, dispersive solvers are s...

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) quantifies the probability of exceeding a specified inundation intensity at a given location within a given time interval. PTHA provides scientific guidance for tsunami risk analysis and risk management, including coastal planning and early warning. Explicit computation of site-specific PTHA, with an ade...

The aim of this work is to present the collaboration between the EDANYA research group of the University of Málaga and several international institutions regarding the implementation of computational tools in the framework of the TEWS (Tsunami Early Warning Systems). These collaborations have resulted in the development of the first GPU-based finit...

The final aim of the present work is to propose a NTHMP-approved numerical tool for landslide generated tsunami hazard assessment. To achieve this, the novel Multilayer-HySEA model is benchmarked using laboratory experiment data for landslide generated tsunamis. In particular, this second part of the work deals with granular slides, while the first...

The final aim of the present work is to propose a NTHMP-approved numerical tool for landslide generated tsunami hazard assessment. To achieve this, the novel Multilayer-HySEA model is benchmarked using laboratory experiment data for landslide generated tsunamis. In particular, this second part of the work deals with granular slides, while the firs...

When tsunamigenic events are simulated in deep to moderately deep waters, frequency dispersion effects may become mandatory. In the framework of dispersive systems, non-hydrostatic pressure type models have been shown to be able to describe weakly dispersive waves [2,3]. Although promising results begin to glimpse nowadays, dispersive solvers are s...

Tsunami simulation in the framework of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) is a quite recent achievement, but still limited regarding the size of the problem and restricted to tsunami wave propagation. Faster Than Real Time (FTRT) tsunami simulations require greatly improved and highly efficient computational methods to achieve extremely fast and...

Tsunami simulation in the framework of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) is a quite recent achievement, but still limited regarding the size of the problem and restricted to tsunami wave propagation. Faster Than Real Time (FTRT) tsunami simulations require greatly improved and highly efficient computational methods to achieve extremely fast and...

The Tsunami-HySEA model is used to perform the five numerical benchmarks proposed in the 7 "NTHMP/MMS Benchmarking Workshop: Tsunami currents". Many different model configurations and 8 sensitivity studies were performed for the different benchmarks, combining numerical methods of first, second 9 and third order, different friction laws, varying fr...

In this study, we present model results derived from the Tsunami Current Benchmarking Workshop held by the NTHMP (National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program) at Portland in February 2015 for the two benchmark problems dealing with field data. In this workshop, the Tsunami-HySEA model was used to perform the five numerical benchmarks proposed. The t...

Recent advancement in the efficiency of numerical tsunami codes and the use of GPUs for computing have boosted tsunami simulation in recent years up to unthinkable limits. I this presentation we have tried to show this using as example the evolution of computing times for the Mediterranean region.

The Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, has typically been considered a tectonically stable region without significant seismic activity, in contrast, the region is one that is regularly affected by hurricanes. A detailed survey of ca. 100 km of the eastern Yucatan and Cozumel coast identified the presence of ridges containing boulders measuring >1 m, with u...

User manual for Tsunami-HySEA for the formation course given at Universidad Técnica Federico de Santamaría of Chile in July 2019

The 1958 Lituya Bay landslide-generated mega-tsunami is simulated using the Landslide-HySEA model, a recently developed finite-volume Savage–Hutter shallow water coupled numerical model. Two factors are crucial if the main objective of the numerical simulation is to reproduce the maximal run-up with an accurate simulation of the inundated area and...

The 1958 Lituya Bay landslide-generated mega-tsunami is simulated using the Land\-slide-HySEA model, a recently developed finite volume Savage-Hutter Shallow Water coupled numerical model. Two factors are crucial if the main objective of the numerical simulation is to reproduce the maximal run-up, with an accurate simulation of the inundated area a...

On 30 December 2002, following an intense period of lava effusion activity of Stromboli volcano, a large amount of material from the “Sciara del Fuoco” collapsed and two major landslides occurred 7 minutes apart. In about 90s after the failures, the tsunami reached the north-eastern coast of the island resulting in a maximum run-up of 10 m and a ma...

En los últimos 20 años los tsunamis han sido responsables de cientos de miles de víctimas mortales directas y más de 11 millones de desplazados (1), lo que convierte a este tipo de fenómenos en los más mortíferos de entre los peligros naturales de la historia de la humanidad. No todas las zonas del mundo son propensas a sufrir tsunamis, solo lo son...

In the last 20 years tsunamis have been responsible for hundreds of thousands of direct mortal victims and over 11 million displaced persons1, which makes this type of phenomenon the most deadly of natural hazards in the history of humanity. Not all zones in the world are prone to suffering tsunamis. It is only those regions that are near a substan...

User manual for Tsunami-HySEA for the formation course given at Seismic Network of Puerto Rico in October 2018

An international collaboration is using historical records and modeling to assess tsunami potential in this high-risk region. https://eos.org/project-updates/nations-work-together-to-size-up-caribbean-tsunami-hazards

On 12th June and 20th July, two major earthquakes occurred in the Aegean Sea of Magnitude Mw. 6.3 and Mw. 6.6, respectivey, that have generated both tsunamis along the coasts of Greece and Turkey. Although of limited magnitude, the two events raised several questions on the preparedness of Mediterranean countries to face such events that are consid...

On 12th June and 20th July, two major earthquakes occurred in the Aegean Sea of Magnitude Mw. 6.3 and Mw. 6.6 that generated both tsunamis along the coasts of Greece and Turkey. Although of limited magnitude, the two events raised several questions on the preparedness of Mediterranean countries to face such events that are considered of low probabi...

Invited talk at GPU Technological Conference 2018 (GTC 2018) as winners of the 2018 NVIDIA Global Impact Award explaining EDANYA Group contribution to TEWS FTRT simlations. https://2018gputechconf.smarteventscloud.com/connect/sessionDetail.ww?SESSION_ID=170778&tclass=popup

The current state of the art for the propagation phase in TEWS (Tsunami Early Warning Systems) relies on huge databases of pre-computed solutions for elementary tsunami scenarios and in the linearity of the propagation of tsunami waves in deep waters. The inundation phase sometimes is computed in reduced coastal domains or estimated using empirical...

The current state of the art for the propagation phase in TEWS (Tsunami Early Warning Systems) relies on huge databases of pre-computed solutions for elementary tsunami scenarios and in the linearity of the propagation of tsunami waves in deep waters. The inundation phase sometimes is computed in reduced coastal domains or estimated using empirical...

The Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, has typically been considered a tectonically stable region without significant seismic activity, in contrast, the region is one that is regularly affected by hurricanes. A detailed survey of ca. 100 km of the eastern Yucatan and Cozumel coast identified the presence of ridges containing boulders measuring >1 m, with u...

Tsunami-HySEA user manual in Spanish done for the course given at the Universidad Nacional de Heredia, Puerto Rico, in October 2017

The Tsunami-HySEA model is used to perform some of the numerical benchmark problems proposed and documented in the “Proceedings and results of the 2011 NTHMP Model Benchmarking Workshop”. The final aim is to obtain the approval for Tsunami-HySEA to be used in NTHMP projects. Therefore, this work contains the numerical results and comparisons for th...

In this document we describe the application of two models of the HySEA family, the Landslide and the Multilayer-HySEA models, to the study of the benchmark test cases established for the NTHMP Landslide Benchmark Workshop, held in January 2017 at Galveston. The Multilayer-HySEA model is used to perform the first five benchmark problems, dealing wi...

This paper is concerned with the simulation of the flow of a stratified fluid through a channel with irregular geometry. The channel is supposed to have a straight axis and to be symmetric with regard to a vertical plane passing through its axis. The cross-sections are supposed to be of arbitrary shape. The fluid is assumed to be composed of two sh...

The Landslide-HySEA model has participated in the workshop that was organized at Texas A&M University - Galveston, on January 9-11, 2017 for benchmarking landslide generated tsunami numerical models. The aim of this presentation is to describe some of the proposed benchmarks, and to show the numerical results obtained for the Landslide-HySEA model...

To help produce accurate and consistent maritime hazard products, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program organized a benchmarking workshop to evaluate the numerical modeling of tsunami currents. Thirteen teams of international researchers, using a set of tsunami models currently utilized for hazard mitigation studies, presented results for...

This presentation was done virtually in front of the MMS/NTHMP on the 30 January 2017 in order to fulfil one of the requirements to be in the NTHMP list of benchmarked tsunami models. The Tsunami-HySEA model is used to perform some of the numerical benchmark problems proposed and documented in the “Proceedings and results of the 2011 NTHMP Model Be...

Landslide-HySEA model results for the proposed benchmarking problems. The three mandatory BP (2, 4, and 7) were performed, besides results for BPs 1 and 3 were also presented. Two models were used: (1) standard Landslide-HySEA model (fully coupled SW/SH model) and (2) a newly implemented adhoc model consisting in a multilayer SW dispersive model fo...

Fields of submarine undulations occurring over prodeltaic slopes may be caused in some circumstances by the imprint of high-density sediment flows (i.e. hyperpycnal flows). This is the case of numerous Mediterranean settings, where marked seasonal climates and abrupt inshore physiography are conducive to the generation of these flows. In this contr...

Undulation fields found on Mediterranean prodeltaic slopes usually display sub-surface precursory features recognized through seismic profiling and sediment core data. In this contribution we examine the stratigraphic patterns of sub-surface undulations occurring in wedge-shaped Holocene deposits that are in agreement with the episodic activity of...

The southern coast of Dominican Republic is a very populated region, with several important cities including Santo Domingo, its capital. Important activities are rooted in the southern coast including tourism, industry, commercial ports, and, energy facilities, among others. According to historical reports, it has been impacted by big earthquakes a...

We present a database of pre-calculated tsunami waveforms for the entire Mediterranean Sea, obtained by numerical propagation of uniformly spaced Gaussian-shaped elementary sources for the sea level elevation. Based on any initial sea surface displacement, the database allows the fast calculation of full waveforms at coastal sites by linear superpo...

We present a database of pre-calculated tsunami waveforms for the entire Mediterranean Sea, obtained by numerical propagation of uniformly spaced Gaussian-shaped elementary sources for the sea level elevation. Based on any initial sea surface displacement, the database allows the fast calculation of full waveforms at the 50 m isobath offshore of co...

Tsunami-HySEA model is used to simulate the Caribbean LANTEX 2013 scenario (LANTEX is the acronym for Large AtlaNtic Tsunami Exercise, which is carried out annually). The numerical simulation of the propagation and inundation phases is performed with a single integrated model but using different mesh resolutions and nested meshes. Special emphasis...

Shallow-water type models are commonly used in tsunami simulations. These models contain uncertain parameters like the ratio of densities of layers, friction coefficient, fault deformation, etc. These parameters are modeled statistically and quantifying the resulting solution uncertainty (UQ) is a crucial task in geophysics. We propose a paradigm f...

The Tsunami-HySEA model is used to perform some of the numerical benchmark problems proposed and documented in the " Proceedings and results of the 2011 NTHMP Model Benchmarking Workshop ". The final aim is to obtain the approval for Tsunami-HySEA to be used in NTHMP projects. Therefore, this report contains the numerical results and comparisons fo...

La simulación numérica es una herramienta muy potente y versátil en muchas áreas de la Ciencia y la Tecnología, y no lo es menos en el campo de la predicción de los efectos de un tsunami, así como herramienta de prevención y mitigación de sus potenciales efectos devastadores. En este trabajo presentamos los resultados de la simulación numérica de u...

Tsunami-HySEA model is used to simulate the Caribbean LANTEX 2013 scenario (LANTEX is the acronym for Large AtlaNtic Tsunami Exercise, which is carried out annually). The numerical simulation of the propagation and inundation phases is performed with a single integrated model but using different mesh resolutions and nested meshes. Special emphasis...

An analysis of small-scale morphologies developed in the different domains of submerged deltas (topset, foreset and bottomset) on the continental shelf of the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula is performed in this paper. The aim of the study is to understand the genetic processes, in particular the role played by the fluvial flows. To achieve this...

Numerical simulations of turbidity currents in deltaic areas have been used to study the morphology and the formation of the undulations of the western Mediterranean prodeltaic systems. A series of elongated and subparallel sea floor undulations are located on the middle and distal domains of the prodeltaic wedges. Those are associated with river m...

According to the 2006 USA Tsunami Warning and Education Act, the tsunami inundation models used in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) projects must be validated against some existing standard problems (see [OAR-PMEL-135], [Proceedings of the 2011 NTHMP Model Benchmarking Workshop]). These Benchmark Problems (BPs) cover different...

The construction and evolution of submarine deltaic deposits are influenced by a combination of allogenic factors , such as fluvial flow (Q), and autogenic factors, such as basin slope (BS). Numerical simulations of turbidity currents are used to propose a morphodynamic model that quantifies the effect of both the slope and river input variations o...

Numerical simulation of turbidity currents are used to study the formation of the seafloor undulations in the Adra prodeltaic system, western Mediterranean basin. A series of elongated and subparallel bathymetric undulations are distinguished in the foreset-bottomsets domain of the Holocene pro-deltaic wedge associated with the Adra river. In this...

Traditional turbidity current models suffer from several drawbacks. Among them not preserving freshwater mass, a missing pressure term, or not including terms related to deposition, erosion and entrainment in the momentum equation. In Morales et al.(2009) a new turbidity current model was proposed trying to overcome all these drawbacks. This model...

Model ability to compute and predict tsunami flow velocities is of importance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Substantial damage can be produced by high velocity flows, particularly in harbors and bays, even when the wave height is small. Besides, an accurate simulation of tsunami flow velocities and accelerations is fundamental for advan...

Análisis de imagen para la identificación de objetos en filtros procedentes de las plumas de turbidez Image analysis to identify objects in filters obtained from turbidity plumes Abstract: The study of turbidity plumes developed in front of the river mouth, have an increasing scientific interest due to its contribution to infralittoral sediment tra...

A detailed high-resolution simulation of the 1755 tsunami and its impact in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz is performed and presented in this talk.

Traditional turbidity current models suffer from several drawbacks. Among them not preserving freshwater mass, a missing pressure term, or not including terms related to deposition, erosion and entrainment in the momentum equation. In Morales et al. (2009) a new turbidity current model was proposed trying to overcome all these drawbacks. This model...

The construction and evolution of submarine deltaic deposits are influenced by a combination of allogenic and autogenic factors. Numerical simulation of turbidity currents are used to propose a morphodynamic model that quantifies the effect of the slope and river input variations on delta development/construction for the case of mountainous rivers...

Clinoforms constitute the basic building elements of continental margin growth. Submarine clinoforms are composed of three geometric elements: topset, foreset and bottomset. This study focuses on the determination of the distal termination of submarine deltaic clinoforms by using morphometric criteria and subsequent validation with stratigraphic, s...

The evolutionary stages of the submarine delta off the Adra River are investigated in this study, under the context of climatic fluctuations entangled with increasing human activities and interventions in the drainage basins and adjacent shores during the Middle to Late Holocene. To achieve that goal, we used an extensive database comprising a set...