Jordan D. Kern

• Professor (Assistant) at North Carolina State University

Variable hydrometeorological conditions can impact electric utilities' financial stability. Extreme temperatures often increase electricity demand, raising utility costs, while drought reduces hydropower generation and often reduces revenues, with financial impacts potentially exacerbated by spikes in fuel prices, particularly natural gas. In this...

There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid op...

GO WEST is an open-source power grid modeling framework for the U.S. Western Interconnection, which allows users to tailor the model depending on their research study and science questions. It covers 28 balancing authorities (BAs) and 12 states in U.S. Western Interconnection. GO WEST allows users to select different number of nodes and come up wit...

The US electric grid faces growing resiliency challenges due to climate change, increased frequency of extreme weather events, variability in water supply and renewable energy generation, land use conflicts, and rising demand related to sectoral electrification. Developing long-range capacity expansion plans that are robust to these challenges requ...

Electricity grids face adaptation challenges due to the interactions between the increasing frequency and severity of extreme events, energy system transitions, and shifts in underlying trends in climate and socioeconomics—all of which affect electricity demand as well as supply resources. Understanding the grid stress (e.g., risks of power outages...

Electricity grids are challenged to maintain reliability during more intense and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change. This challenge is exacerbated by multi-sector electrification and power sector decarbonization through increased reliance on variable renewable energy, which necessitates the expansion of transmission infrastructur...

Integrated water-energy management is crucial for balancing socioeconomic and environmental objectives in multi-reservoir systems. Multipurpose reservoirs support clean energy production, recreation, navigation, and flood protection but also disrupt natural water flows and fish migration. As hydropower’s role evolves with grid decarbonization, mana...

Electricity systems must expand and rapidly decarbonize while also withstanding extreme weather events that are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change. Projecting the vulnerability and resilience of bulk electric power systems to both short- and long-term influences, from local to continental scales in the United States, requires n...

Electricity grids face significant challenges in maintaining reliability amidst increasingly severe and frequent extreme weather events. In addition, grids are under major transformation due to growing electrification across multiple sectors and the decarbonization efforts via increased use of variable renewable energy sources. Expanding transmissi...

GO WEST is an open-source power grid modeling framework for U.S. Western Interconnection, which allows users to tailor the model depending on their research study and science questions. It covers 28 balancing authorities (BA) and 12 states in U.S. Western Interconnection. GO WEST allows users to select different number of nodes and come up with a s...

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for...

Although damages to local distribution systems from wind and fallen trees are typically responsible for the largest fraction of electricity outages during hurricanes, outages caused by flooding of electrical substations pose a unique risk. Electrical substations are a key component of electric power systems, and in some areas, the loss of a single...

In this experiment, we explore long term patterns in electricity demand driven by the dual effects of full electrification of space heating in Texas (by adoption of electric heat pumps), and climate change. We use a predictive model of electricity demand, climate projections, and an open source nodal power system (DC Optimal Power Flow) model of th...

The share of variable renewable energy resources such as solar and wind are increasing throughout the world to decarbonize electricity grids and mitigate climate change impacts. Although more immature as a technology and geographically limited, wave energy is an emerging renewable energy alternative that is more predictable than solar and wind, pot...

Studies of bulk power system operations need to incorporate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, especially around exposure to weather and climate variability and extremes, but this remains a computational modeling challenge. Commercial production cost models have shorter runtimes, but also important limitations (opacity, license restrictions) tha...

Answering complex questions as to how the US electric grid will evolve under the compounding effects of climate change, energy system transitions, and changes in electricity demand requires the integration of electricity system models that operate at dissimilar temporal and spatial scales. We present a novel multi-model workflow to spatiotemporally...

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeli...

Studies of bulk power system operations need to incorporate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, especially around exposure to weather and climate variability and extremes, but this remains a computational modeling challenge. Commercial production cost models have shorter runtimes, but also important limitations (opacity, license restrictions) tha...

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids thr...

Droughts reduce hydropower production and heatwaves increase electricity demand, forcing power system operators to rely more on fossil fuel power plants. However, less is known about how droughts and heat waves impact the county level distribution of health damages from power plant emissions. Using California as a case study, we simulate emissions...

GO WEST is an open-source power grid modeling framework for U.S. Western Interconnection, which allows users to tailor the model depending on their research study and science questions. It is developed to address weather and water dynamics, and associated vulnerabilities in this bulk power system. It covers 28 balancing authorities (BA) and 12 stat...

Electricity grids throughout the world face the dual challenge of decarbonizing while also withstanding increasing severe weather due to climate change. Grid operators must manage the integration of variable renewable energy sources and multi-sector electrification (i.e., increased demand) while also preparing for more frequent and severe droughts,...

Large-scale algae production has garnered interest due to its potential as a biofuel feedstock. Previous research assessing the profitability of algae products has been mostly based on values averaged over time, but algae production and resulting financial returns exhibit significant variability due to weather and fluctuations in selling prices for...

The soft (one-way) coupling of water and power system models is the dominant approach for studying the impact of water availability on grid performance. Yet, such approach does not explicitly capture key dynamic interdependencies between the state of the grid and the operational decisions made at the water system level. Here, we address this gap an...

Droughts reduce hydropower production and heatwaves increase electricity demand, forcing power system operators to rely more on fossil fuel power plants. However, less is known about how droughts and heat waves impact the county level distribution of health damages from power plant emissions. Using California as a case study, we simulate emissions...

In the United States, New England faces difficulties from severe winter weather, during which its power grid simultaneously experiences high natural gas prices and electricity demand, leading to spikes in wholesale electricity prices. In recent years, a significant amount of offshore wind power capacity has been planned for the region, and previous...

Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble t...

The United States (U.S.) West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which control hydropower availability). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a combination of forces may work in tandem to make its bulk power system more vulnerable to p...

Winter storms routinely challenge New England's energy systems by increasing heating demands and causing natural gas shortages, leading to higher fuel costs and price shocks in wholesale electricity markets. In recent years, grid operators in New England have proposed building substantial offshore wind power capacity (the first in the U.S.), both a...

Power grid operations increasingly interact with environmental systems and human systems such as transportation, agriculture, the economy, and financial markets. Our objective is to discuss the modelling gaps and opportunities to advance the science for multisector adaptation and tradeoffs. We focus on power system operational models, which typical...

Large scale wind power projects are increasingly selling power directly into wholesale electricity markets without the benefits of stable (fixed price) off-take agreements. As a result, many wind power producers seek financial hedging contracts to mitigate exposure to price risk. One particular hedging contract - the “fixed volume price swap” - has...

Algal biofuels are a renewable liquid fuel with advantages over crop-based biofuels, including higher yield per acre, the ability to recycle production inputs, and the option to create valuable co-products. Previous analyses suggest that algal biofuels could become cost-competitive if technological improvements are achieved. Most previous research,...

For large energy consumers transitioning to high shares of solar energy, irradiance variability causes volatility in power generation and energy expenditures. Volatility in an end user’s cash flow is harmful to their financial health, especially in abnormally cloudy years. This paper explores the utility of an irradiance-based weather derivative in...

Power grid operations increasingly interact with environmental systems and human systems such as transportation, agriculture, the economy, and financial markets. Our objective is to discuss the modelling gaps and opportunities to advance the science for multisector adaptation and tradeoffs. We focus on power system operational models, which typical...

Hydrometeorological conditions influence the operations of bulk electric power systems and wholesale markets for electricity. Streamflow is the “fuel” for hydropower generation, wind speeds and solar irradiance dictate the availability of wind and solar power production, and air temperatures strongly affect heating and cooling demands. Despite grow...

Over the period 2012–2016, the state of California in the United States (U.S.) experienced a drought considered to be one of the worst in state history. Drought’s direct impacts on California’s electric power sector are understood. Extremely low streamflow manifests as reduced hydropower availability, and if drought is also marked by elevated tempe...

PowNet is specifically conceived for systems characterized by the presence of variable renewable resources (e.g., hydropower, solar, and wind), whose penetration on the grid is strongly influenced by climatic variability and constrained by the availability of transmission capacity. To help users effectively capture the nuances of power system dynam...

Variability (and extremes) in streamflow, wind speeds, temperatures, and solar irradiance influence supply and demand for electricity. However, previous research falls short in addressing the risks that joint uncertainties in these processes pose in power systems and wholesale electricity markets. Limiting challenges have included the large areal e...

Hydropower facilities are an ideal solution to complement the intermittent production of energy from wind and solar photovoltaic facilities in electric power systems. However, adding this task to the multiple diverse duties of a reservoir (e.g., flood mitigation, water supply, and power generation) poses a challenge related to pursuing multiple and...

PowNet is a least-cost optimization model for simulating the Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch (UC/ED) of large-scale (regional to country) power systems. In PowNet, a power system is represented by a set of nodes that include power plants, high-voltage substations, and import/export stations (for cross-border systems). The model schedules and...

PowNet is a free modelling tool for simulating the Unit Commitment / Economic Dispatch of large-scale power systems. PowNet is specifically conceived for applications in the water-energy nexus domain, which investigate the impact of water availability on electricity supply. To this purpose, PowNet is equipped with features that guarantee accuracy,...

Using municipal wastewater effluent as a feedstock in algae cultivation is a promising approach for increasing the commercial viability of algal biofuel production. However, differences in site-specific characteristics at municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) could drive tradeoffs between maximizing the profitability of algae production and...

Hydropower plants frequently operate at high output during peak hours and at low output (or even shutoff) during off-peak hours. This scheme, called “hydropeaking”, is harmful to downstream ecosystems. Operational constraints (minimum flows, maximum ramps) are frequently used to mitigate the impacts of hydropeaking. However, they reduce the operati...

There is increasing recognition of the vulnerability of electric power systems to drought and the potential for both climate change and a shifting generation mix to alter this vulnerability. Nonetheless, the considerable research in this area has not been synthesized to inform electric utilities with respect to a key factor that influences their de...

The rapid expansion of variable renewable energy (e.g., wind and solar) can make it more difficult to balance electricity supply and demand at a grid-scale. While much attention has focused on the risk of unexpected generation shortfalls, periods of oversupply (when supply is greater than demand) also present challenges that can lead to financial l...

This study investigates the use of “real options analysis” (ROA) to quantify the value of greater product flexibility at algal biofuel production facilities. A deterministic optimization framework is integrated with a combined life cycle assessment/techno-economic analysis model and subjected to an ensemble of 30-year commodity price trajectories....

Peaking hydroelectric dams that employ variable, stop-start reservoir releases can have adverse impacts on downstream river ecosystems. Efforts to mitigate these impacts have relied predominantly on the use of ramp rate restrictions, which limit the magnitude of hour-to-hour changes in reservoir discharge. Ramp rate restrictions shift hydropower pr...

Algal biofuels are becoming more economically competitive due to technological advances and government subsidies offering tax benefits and lower cost financing. These factors are linked, however, as the value of technical advances is affected by modeling assumptions regarding the growth conditions, process design, and financing of the production fa...

Variability in streamflows can lead to reduced generation from hydropower producers and result in reductions in revenues that can be financially disruptive. This link between hydrologic and financial uncertainty, and the possibility of increased hydrologic variability in the future, suggests that hydropower producers need to begin to consider new s...

Prolonged periods of low reservoir inflows (droughts) significantly reduce a hydropower producer's ability to generate both electricity and revenues. Given the capital intensive nature of the electric power industry, this can impact hydropower producers' ability to pay-down outstanding debt, leading to credit rating downgrades, higher interests rat...

Despite the potential for hydroelectric dams to help address challenges related to the variability and unpredictability of wind energy, at present there are few systems-based wind-hydro studies available in the scientific literature. This work represents an attempt to begin filling this gap through the development of a systems-based modeling framew...

Due to their operational flexibility, hydroelectric dams are ideal candidates to compensate for the intermittency and unpredictability of wind energy production. However, more coordinated use of wind and hydropower resources may exacerbate the impacts dams have on downstream environmental flows, i.e., the timing and magnitude of water flows needed...

The flow regime of rivers is a complex but important measure of environmental quality and one that can be significantly impacted by conventional hydropower generation. While traditional hydropower scheduling creates a periodicity in downstream flows corresponding to seasonal and daily electricity demand patterns, deregulated electricity markets may...