Jonathan Suk

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control | ECDC · Emergency Preparedness and Response Support Section

Many countries, including some within the EU/EEA, are in the process of transitioning from the acute pandemic phase. During this transition, it is crucial that countries’ strategies and activities remain guided by clear COVID-19 control objectives, which increasingly will focus on preventing and managing severe outcomes. Therefore, attention must b...

Objectives: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs). With this systematic review, we investigated the effectiveness of NPIs in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission by assessing empirical evidence and data obtained through modelling studies. Design: We searched Medline(OVID) and EMBASE...

Objectives The economic burden of COVID-19 pandemic is substantial, with both direct and indirect costs playing a significant role. Design A systematic literature review was conducted to estimate the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical or non-pharmaceutical interventions. All cost data were adjusted to the 20...

Social determinants of health significantly impact population health status. The aim of this systematic review was to examine which social vulnerability factors or determinants of health at the individual or county level affected vaccine uptake within the first phase of the vaccination program. We performed a systematic review of peer-reviewed lite...

Objectives This systematic review aims to identify the secondary attack rates (SAR) to adults and other children when children are the index cases within household settings. Methods This literature review assessed European-based studies published in Medline and Embase between January 2020 and January 2022 that assessed the secondary transmission o...

Background: As mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is strongly age-dependent, we aimed to identify population subgroups at an elevated risk for adverse outcomes from COVID-19 using age-/gender-adjusted data from European cohort studies with the aim to identify populations that could potentially benefit from booster vaccinations. Me...

Objectives This systematic review aims to identify the secondary attack rates (SAR) to adults and other children when children are the index cases within household settings. Methods This literature review assessed European-based studies published in Medline and Embase between January 2020 and January 2022 that assessed the secondary transmission o...

Objectives COVID-19 poses a threat of loss of life, economic instability, and social disruption. We conducted a systematic review of published economic analyses to assess the direct and indirect costs of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and to contrast these with the costs and the cost-benefit of public health surveillance, preparedness, and response measu...

The dynamic preparedness metric (DPM) is a composite measure with three main conceptual dimensions: hazard, vulnerability, and capacity; this is a metric for better prearedenss.

Behavioural sciences have complemented medical and epidemiological sciences in the response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. As vaccination uptake continues to increase across the EU/EEA - including booster vaccinations - behavioural science research remains important for both pandemic policy, planning of services and communication. From a behavioural p...

Objectives School closures have been used as a core non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) during the COVID-19 pandemic. This review aims at identifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational settings during the first waves of the pandemic. Methods This literature review assessed studies published between December 2019 and 1 April 2021 in Medline a...

Background As mortality from COVID-19 is strongly age-dependent, we aimed to identify population subgroups at an elevated risk for adverse outcomes from COVID-19 using age/gender-adjusted data from European cohort studies with the aim to identify populations that could potentially benefit from booster vaccinations. Methods We performed a systemati...

This report focuses on COVID-19 vulnerabilities and the need for infection prevention and control in temporary reception centres, in the context of the large numbers of people currently fleeing Ukraine.

We estimated risks of severe outcomes in 820,404 symptomatic paediatric COVID-19 cases reported by 10 European Union countries between August 2020 and October 2021. Case and hospitalisation rates rose as transmission increased but severe outcomes were rare: 9,611 (1.2%) were hospitalised, 640 (0.08%) required intensive care and 84 (0.01%) died. Des...

To guide evidence-based prevention of COVID-19 in children, we estimated risks of severe outcomes in 820,404 symptomatic paediatric cases reported by 10 EU Member States between August 2020 and October 2021. Case and hospitalisation rates rose as overall transmission increased but severe outcomes were rare: 9,611 (1.2%) were hospitalised, 640 (0.08...

Background: The study objective was to conduct a systematic review to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe during the first wave of the pandemic. Methods: We searched OVID Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane and Campbell Databases for Systematic Reviews published up to...

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed many gaps and vulnerabilities in health systems and pandemic preparedness in European countries. It has also led to innovation and rapid improvements in certain elements of public health practice. One defining characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the rapid advance of scientific knowledge, accompanied b...

Background: School closures have been used as a core Non pharmaceutical intervention during the COVID-19 pandemic, however the role of educational settings in COVID-19 transmission is still unclear. Methods: This systematic literature review assessed studies published between December 2019 and April 1, 2021 in Medline and Embase, which included stu...

This report presents: 1) evidence around the clinical, health, and social impact that COVID-19 has had on migrant populations in EU/EEA countries and the UK; 2) risk factors and vulnerabilities in migrant populations to COVID-19; and 3) considerations for ensuring equitable access to the COVID-19 vaccine rollout through identifying successes, lesso...

Objectives Respiratory infectious disease outbreaks pose a threat for loss of life, economic instability and social disruption. We conducted a systematic review of published econometric analyses to assess the direct and indirect costs of infectious respiratory disease outbreaks that occurred between 2003 and 2019. Setting Respiratory infectious di...

Europe is in the midst of a COVID-19 epidemic and a number of non-pharmaceutical public health and social measures have been implemented, in order to contain the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. These measures are fundamental elements of the public health approach to controlling transmission but have proven not to be...

Migrants have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 and emerging evidence suggests they may face barriers to COVID-19 vaccination. Participatory approaches and engagement strategies are urgently needed to strengthen uptake, alongside innovative delivery mechanisms and sharing of best practice, to ensure migrants are better consider within co...

Decisions on school closures and on safe schooling during the COVID-19 pandemic should be evidence-based. We conducted a systematic literature review to assess child-to-child and child-to-adult SARS-CoV-2 transmission and to characterise the potential role of school closures on community transmission. 1337 peer-reviewed articles published through A...

Background Infectious disease outbreaks require decision makers to make rapid decisions under time pressure and situations of scientific uncertainty, and yet the role of evidence usage in these contexts is poorly understood. Aims and objectives To define and contextualise the role of scientific evidence in the governance of infectious disease outb...

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

The main objective of this guidance is to provide scientific advice on public health principles and considerations for infection and prevention control of COVID-19 in migrant and refugee reception and detention centres in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) and the United Kingdom (UK).

This document aims to support the implementation of after-action reviews (AARs) and in-action reviews (IARs) focused on the public health response to COVID-19. After-action reviews are structured, qualitative reviews of the actions taken during the response to identify best practices, gaps and lessons learned. After-action reviews may address all d...

Background After Action Reviews (AAR) with a One Health perspective were performed in Slovenia, Italy, Serbia and Greece following a severe West Nile virus (WNV) transmission season in 2018. A protocol combining traditional techniques and organizational process analysis was developed and then implemented in each country. Results In 2018, response...

Abstract Background Natural disasters are increasing in their frequency and complexity. Understanding how their cascading effects can lead to infectious disease outbreaks is important for developing cross-sectoral preparedness strategies. The review focussed on earthquakes and floods because of their importance in Europe and their potential to eluc...

Objective This literature review aimed to identify the range of methods used in after action reviews (AARs) of public health emergencies and to develop appraisal tools to compare methodological reporting and validity standards. Methods A review of biomedical and gray literature identified key approaches from AAR methodological research, real-world...

Migrant centres, as other institutions hosting closed or semi-open communities, may face specific challenges in preventing and controlling communicable disease transmission, particularly during times of large sudden influx. However, there is dearth of evidence on how to prioritise investments in aspects such as human resources, medicines and vaccin...

We report on and evaluate the process and findings of a real-time modeling exercise in response to an outbreak of measles in Lola prefecture, Guinea, in early 2015 in the wake of the Ebola crisis. Multiple statistical methods for the estimation of the size of the susceptible (i.e., unvaccinated) population were applied to weekly reported measles ca...

Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide-range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species which is a vector for Lyme borreliosis...

The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the...

Background: Bacteria are the pathogens most frequently transmitted through substances of human origin (SoHO). The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) organized an expert consultation, with the objective of developing a priority list of bacterial pathogens transmissible via SoHO. The list will be used to further assess risks a...

This European Environment Agency (EEA) report is an indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change and its impacts on ecosystems and society. It also looks at society’s vulnerability to these impacts and at the development of adaptation policies and the underlying knowledge base. This is the fourth ‘Climate change, impacts and vuln...

During public health crises such as the recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease in West Africa, breakdowns in public health systems can lead to epidemics of vaccine-preventable diseases. We report here on an outbreak of measles in the prefecture of Lola, Guinea, which started in January 2015.

Infectious diseases have long been a focal point of climate change impacts research, with malaria prominent among them. Although it is universally acknowledged that malaria transmission is affected by temperature and rainfall, projections of future levels of malaria under different climate change scenarios have been the object of scientific controv...

The threat of serious, cross-border communicable disease outbreaks in Europe poses a significant challenge to public health and emergency preparedness because the relative likelihood of these threats and the pathogens involved are constantly shifting in response to a range of changing disease drivers. To inform strategic planning by enabling effect...

Migrants do not pose a significant health threat to the citizens of the EU. There is no evidence or expert opinion that suggests that migrants increase the risk of infectious disease epidemics in the host population in Europe. However, many newly arrived migrants in Europe are vulnerable to infection, and thus prevention and assessment of infectiou...

Aims: Progress towards meeting the goal of measles elimination in the EU and the European Economic Area (EEA) by 2015 is being obstructed, as some children are either not immunized on time or never immunized. One group thought to be at increased risk of measles is migrants; however, the extent to which this is the case is poorly understood, due to...

Vaccine hesitancy among healthcare workers and their patients in Europe A qualitative study The research described in this report was conducted to assess potential concerns among hesitant healthcare workers in Europe. It is part of a European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) project entitled ‘Comprehensive expert opinion on motivat...

Investments in public health preparedness can mitigate the human and economic costs of disease outbreaks. Preparedness is an iterative process of quality improvement through which public health seeks to optimise the anticipation of, response to, and recovery from health threats. Integrating preparedness processes into routine public health activiti...

It is not well understood how economic crises affect infectious disease incidence and prevalence, particularly among vulnerable groups. Using a susceptible-infected-recovered framework, we systematically reviewed literature on the impact of the economic crises on infectious disease risks in migrants in Europe, focusing principally on HIV, TB, hepat...

(Please note: As this is a conference contribution, there is currently no full-text version available. The final results will be published in a separate paper.) Background: Following its introduction in Europe, Aedes albopictus has spread throughout many areas of the Mediterranean basin. In 2007, the mosquito mediated an outbreak of Chikungunya, w...

Background: There is sparse evidence that demonstrates the association between macro-environmental processes and drug-related HIV epidemics. The present study explores the relationship between economic, socio-economic, policy and structural indicators, and increases in reported HIV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the European Ec...

Further to the arrival of large influxes of migrants at Greece's land and sea borders, the Greek Government invited the WHO Regional Office for Europe to organize a joint mission between 15 and 19 December 2014 to assess health system capacity to manage large influxes of migrants. The mission aims were threefold: to assess the ongoing preparedness...

The willingness or reticence of individuals to vaccinate themselves and their children can have profound impacts not only for their own health and wellbeing, but for herd immunity and public health more widely. As noted in Europe for measles, each percentage point increase in national vaccination coverage contributes to a significant reduction in t...

Background: The worldwide distribution of dengue is expanding, in part due to globalized traffic and trade. Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for dengue viruses (DENV) and is now established in numerous regions of Europe. Viremic travellers arriving in Europe from dengue-affected areas of the world can become catalysts of local outbreaks in E...

Background The geographic range, seasonality, and incidence of many infectious diseases might change with climate change. Yet, most models of these eff ects have not been able to account for the exacerbating or mitigating eff ects of socioeconomic variables. Vulnerability is understood to be the propensity to be adversely aff ected by a given cause...

Infectious diseases can constitute public health emergencies of international concern when a pathogen arises, acquires new characteristics, or is deliberately released, leading to the potential for loss of human lives as well as societal disruption. A wide range of risk drivers are now known to lead to and/or exacerbate the emergence and spread of...

Infectious diseases can constitute public health emergencies of international concern when a pathogen arises, acquires new characteristics, or is deliberately released, leading to the potential for loss of human lives as well as societal disruption. A wide range of risk drivers are now known to lead to and/or exacerbate the emergence and spread of...

World Health Day 2014 focused on vector-borne diseases, offering the opportunity to take stock of the remarkable persistence that diseases transmitted by ticks, mosquitoes and other arthropods have exhibited in recent years. It may be tempting to view vector-borne diseases as less of an issue for Europe than other regions of the world, but this wou...

A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/...

This article attempts to quantify the risk to Europe of dengue, following the arrival and spread there of one of dengue's vector species Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus. A global risk map for dengue is presented, based on a global database of the occurrence of this disease, derived from electronic literature searches. Remotely sensed satellite data (f...

Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion...

Climate change may impact waterborne and foodborne infectious disease, but to what extent is uncertain. Estimating climate-change-associated relative infection risks from exposure to viruses, bacteria, or parasites in water or food is critical for guiding adaptation measures. We present a computational tool for strategic decision making that descri...

Climate change has the potential to increase the challenge of preventing and controlling outbreaks of infectious diseases. An adaptation assessment is an important aspect of designing and implementing policies and measures to avoid, prepare for, and effectively respond to infectious diseases outbreaks. The main steps in conducting an adaptation ass...