Jonathan Stokes

Verified

Jonathan verified their affiliation via an institutional email.

Learn more

Verified

Jonathan verified their affiliation via an institutional email.

Learn more

• PhD, MPH, BSc
• Senior Research Fellow at University of Glasgow

Background An ageing population with multimorbidity is putting pressure on health systems. A popular method of managing this pressure is identification of patients in primary care ‘at-risk’ of hospitalisation, and delivering case management to improve outcomes and avoid admissions. However, the effectiveness of this model has not been subjected to...

Background After decades of steady progress, life expectancy at birth has stalled in England. Inequalities are also rising, and life expectancy has fallen for females living in the most deprived areas. However, less attention has been given to trends in other measures of population health, particularly health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Aim T...

Background Patients with multimorbidities have the greatest healthcare needs and generate the highest expenditure in the health system. There is an increasing focus on identifying specific disease combinations for addressing poor outcomes. Existing research has identified a small number of prevalent “clusters” in the general population, but the lim...

Background Population health has stagnated or is declining in many high-income countries. We analysed whether nationally administered austerity cuts in England were associated with prevalence of multimorbidity (individuals with two or more long-term conditions) and health-related quality of life. Methods We conducted an observational, longitudinal...

Background Multiple long-term conditions (MLTC), also known as multimorbidity, has been identified as a priority research topic globally. Research priorities from the perspectives of patients and research funders have been described. Although most care for MLTC is delivered in primary care, the priorities of academic primary care have not been iden...

Impacts of integrated care interventions, particularly on utilisation and financial outcomes, can be mixed, sometimes quite disappointing when compared to expectations. Positive deviants come along occasionally, but it is extremely difficult to unpick exactly why one intervention might ‘work’ where others have not. Choi & Yoo evaluated a programme...

Background Type 2 diabetes is considered a critical challenge to modern healthcare systems. The National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme delivered an evidence-based behaviour change programme at a national scale to reduce the incidence of type 2 diabetes in England. Objective(s) The Diabetes Prevention – Long-term Multimethod Assessme...

Understanding causality, over mere association, is vital for researchers wishing to inform policy and decision making – for example, when seeking to improve population health outcomes. Yet, contemporary causal inference methods have not fully tackled the complexity of data hierarchies, such as the clustering of people within households, neighbourho...

Background An increasing number of people live with chronic disease or multi-morbidity. Current consensus is that their care requires an integrated model bringing different professionals together to provide person-centred care. Although primary care has a central role in managing chronic disease, and integration may be important in strengthening th...

Background ‘Twenty-minute neighbourhoods’ (or variations, such as 15-minute cities) are receiving increasing policy attention with anticipated impacts on population health (inequalities) outcomes alongside sustainability improvements. Yet, factors contributing to possible health impacts are not well understood. This scoping review aimed to identify...

Background Government bodies, private enterprises, and researchers increasingly use ‘big data’ to monitor, evaluate interventions, make future predictions, and seek causal understanding. Such data are often complex in structure (i.e., hierarchical), which creates challenges for methods that work for a single homogeneous population, but which mislea...

Introduction Reducing waiting times is a major policy objective in publicly-funded healthcare systems. However, reductions in waiting times can produce a demand response, which may offset increases in capacity. Early detection and diagnosis of cancer is a policy focus in many OECD countries, but prolonged waiting periods for specialist confirmation...

Payments for some diagnostic scans undertaken in outpatient settings were unbundled from Diagnosis Related Group based payments in England in April 2013 to address under‐provision. Unbundled scans attracted additional payments of between £45 and £748 directly following the reform. We examined the effect on utilization of these scans for patients wi...

Reducing waiting times is a priority in public health systems. Efforts of healthcare providers to shorten waiting times could be negated if they simultaneously induce substantial increases in demand. However, separating out the effects of changes in supply and demand on waiting times requires an exogenous change in one element. We examine the impac...

Background Multimorbidity is a major challenge to health and social care systems around the world. There is limited research exploring the wider contextual determinants that are important to improving care for this cohort. In this study, we aimed to elicit and prioritise determinants of improved care in people with multiple conditions. Methods A t...

Background Many complex public health evidence gaps cannot be fully resolved using only conventional public health methods. We aim to familiarise public health researchers with selected systems science methods that may contribute to a better understanding of complex phenomena and lead to more impactful interventions. As a case study, we choose the...

Introduction: Multiple Long Term Conditions (MLTC) are a major challenge to health and social care systems around the world. There is limited research exploring the wider contextual determinants that are important to improving care for people living with MLTC. In this study, we aimed to elicit and prioritise determinants of improved care in people...

Background Health and social care systems in many countries have begun to trial and adopt “integrated” approaches. Yet, the significant role care homes play within the health and social care system is often understated. A key first step to identifying the care home integration interventions that are most (cost-)effective is the ability to precisely...

This document outlines the protocol for a scoping review researching the potential impacts of x-min city or neighbourhood concepts on health and health inequalities.

Objective Outpatient no-shows have important implications for costs and the quality of care. Predictive models of no-shows could be used to target intervention delivery to reduce no-shows. We reviewed the effectiveness of predictive model-based interventions on outpatient no-shows, intervention costs, acceptability, and equity. Materials and Metho...

Introduction: Current descriptions of pooled budgets in the literature pose challenges to good quality evaluation of their contribution to integrated care. Addressing this gap is increasingly important given the shift from early models of integrated care targeting segments of the population, to more recent approaches that aim to target 'places', b...

Better integration is a priority for most international health systems. However, multiple interventions are often implemented simultaneously, making evaluation difficult and providing limited evidence for policy makers about specific interventions. We evaluate a common integrated care intervention, multi‐disciplinary group (MDG) meetings for discus...

Closer integration of health and social care is a policy priority in many countries. The Covid-19 pandemic has reinforced the necessity of joining up health and social care systems, especially in care home settings. However, the meaning and perceived importance of integration for residents’ and carers’ experience is unclear and we do not know wheth...

Background A more comprehensive understanding and measurement of adult social care need could contribute to efforts to develop more effective, holistic personalised care, particularly for those with Multiple Long Term Conditions. Progress in this area faces the challenge of a lack of clarity in the literature relating to how social care need is ass...

Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented around the world to control Covid-19 transmission. Their general effect on reducing virus transmission is proven, but they can also be negative to mental health and economies, and transmission behaviours can also change voluntarily, without mandated interventions. Their relative impa...

BACKGROUND Multiple long-term health conditions (Multimorbidity) (MLTC-M) are increasingly prevalent and associated with high rates of morbidity, mortality and health-care expenditure. Strategies to tackle this have primarily focused on addressing biological aspects of disease, but MLTC-M are also the result of and associated with additional psycho...

Background: Multiple long-term health conditions (multimorbidity) (MLTC-M) are increasingly prevalent and associated with high rates of morbidity, mortality, and health care expenditure. Strategies to address this have primarily focused on the biological aspects of disease, but MLTC-M also result from and are associated with additional psychosocia...

Background Evidence is limited on racial/ethnic group disparities in multimorbidity and associated health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries hampering effective policies and clinical interventions to address health inequalities. Methods This study assessed race/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and...

Since early in the pandemic, pre-existing conditions and older age have been highlighted as two of the biggest individual-level predictors of severe disease and/or mortality from COVID-19. But there are other, more systemic, long-term issues that the pandemic has brought into focus – such as the cracks in the UK’s social care system, which arguably...

Bundled payments aim to stimulate the integration of healthcare services and ultimately reduce healthcare expenditure growth through improved quality of care. The Netherlands introduced bundled payments for chronic diseases in 2010 by reimbursing providers annually for a bundle of primary care services related to COPD, Diabetes, or Vascular Risk Ma...

Background To estimate excess mortality for care home residents during the COVID-19 pandemic in England, exploring associations with care home characteristics. Methods Daily number of deaths in all residential and nursing homes in England notified to the Care Quality Commission (CQC) from 1 January 2017 to 7 August 2020. Care home-level data linke...

This paper provides a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying implementation strategies for integrated care. As part of the SELFIE project, 17 integrated care programmes addressing multi-morbidity from eight European countries were selected and studied. Data was extracted from ‘thick descriptions’ of the 17 programmes and analysed both in...

Purpose Three types of payment methods have been introduced across European countries in attempts to encourage better, more integrated care of persons with multimorbidity: pay-for-performance; pay-for-coordination; and an all-inclusive payment method. We examine whether there are differences in the way these payment methods affect health and health...

Background As the prevalence of multi-morbidity increases in ageing societies, health and social care systems face the challenge of providing adequate care to persons with complex needs. Approaches that integrate care across sectors and disciplines have been increasingly developed and implemented in European countries in order to tackle this challe...

Background: To estimate excess mortality for care home residents during the COVID-19 pandemic in England, exploring associations with care home characteristics. Methods: Daily number of deaths in all residential and nursing homes in England notified to the Care Quality Commission (CQC) from 1st January 2017 to 7th August 2020. Care home level data...

Objectives To examine the effectiveness of two integrated care models (‘vanguards’) in Salford and South Somerset in England, United Kingdom, in relation to patient experience, health outcomes and costs of care (the ‘triple aim’). Methods We used difference-in-differences analysis combined with propensity score weighting to compare the two care mo...

Objectives To measure relative preferences for outcomes of integrated care of patients with multimorbidity from eight European countries and compare them to the preferences of other stakeholders within these countries. Design A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted in each country, asking respondents to choose between two integrated care...

Objectives To measure relative preferences for outcomes of integrated care of patients with multimorbidity from eight European countries and compare them to the preferences of other stakeholders within these countries.Design A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted in each country, asking respondents to choose between two integrated care pr...

Background Concurrent non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented around the world to control Covid-19 transmission. Their general effect on reducing virus transmission is proven, but they can also be negative to mental health and economies, and transmission behaviours can also change in absence of mandated policies. Their relative impac...

Closer integration of health and social care services has become a cornerstone policy in many developed countries, but there is still debate over what population and service level is best to target. In England, the 2019 Long Term Plan for the National Health Service included a commitment to spread the integration prototypes piloted under the Vangua...

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus is preventable through lifestyle intervention. Diabetes prevention programmes (DPPs) aim to deliver prevention-based behaviour change interventions to reduce incidence. Such programmes vary from usual primary care in terms of where, how, and by whom they are delivered. Implementation is therefore likely to face...

Background: Digital health tools comprise a wide range of technologies to support health processes. The potential of these technologies to effectively support health care transformation is widely accepted. However, wide scale implementation is uneven among countries and regions. Identification of common factors facilitating and hampering the imple...

Background: Health systems, globally, are attempting to strengthen primary care to promote a population-health management approach to care provision, incentivising prevention and self-management. This paper evaluates the "Enhanced Primary Care" model implemented in a geographical region in England. Enhanced Primary Care introduces a new non-medica...

BACKGROUND Digital health tools comprise a wide arrange of technologies to support health processes. The potential of these technologies to effectively support healthcare transformation is widely accepted. However, wide scale implantation is uneven among countries/regions. Identification of common factors facilitation and hampering the implementati...

An increasing burden of chronic disease and multimorbidity has prompted experimentation with new models of care delivery that aim to improve integration across sectors and reduce overall costs through decreased use of secondary care. One approach to stimulate this change is to pool health and social care budgets to incentivise care delivery in the...

Background: Evaluation of integrated care programmes for individuals with multi-morbidity requires a broader evaluation framework and a broader definition of added value than is common in cost-utility analysis. This is possible through the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Methods and results: This paper presents the seven steps of...

Objective: To explore the perceptions of relevant stakeholders in terms of targeting the ‘right’ patients for integrated care. Methods: Secondary analysis of qualitative interviews with relevant stakeholders (including programme managers, programme initiators, a representative of the payers, medical and social care professionals, and allied heal...

Traditional provider payment mechanisms may not create appropriate incentives for integrating care. Alternative payment mechanisms, such as bundled payments, have been introduced without uniform definitions, and existing payment typologies are not suitable for describing them. We use a systematic review combined with example integrated care program...

Purpose: Multimorbidity challenges health systems globally. New models of care are urgently needed to better manage patients with multimorbidity; however, there is no agreed framework for designing and reporting models of care for multimorbidity and their evaluation. Methods: Based on findings from a literature search to identify models of care...

Background Health systems must transition from catering primarily to acute conditions, to meet the increasing burden of chronic disease and multimorbidity. Case management is a popular method of integrating care, seeking to accomplish this goal. However, the intervention has shown limited effectiveness. We explore whether the effects of case manage...

Background: Health services across the world increasingly face pressures on the use of expensive hospital services. Better organisation and delivery of primary care has the potential to manage demand and reduce costs for hospital services, but routine primary care services are not open during evenings and weekends. Extended access (evening and wee...

Background Following independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Estonia introduced a national insurance system, consolidated the number of health care providers, and introduced family medicine centred primary health care (PHC) to strengthen the health system. Methods Using routinely collected health billing records for 2005–2012, we examine healt...

'Integrated care' is pitched as the solution to current health system challenges. In the literature, what integrated care actually involves is complex and contested. Multi-disciplinary team case management is frequently the primary focus of integrated care when implemented internationally. We examine the practical application of integrated care in...

Background: Following independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Estonia introduced a national insurance system, consolidated the number of health care providers, and introduced family medicine centred primary health care (PHC) to strengthen the health system. Methods: Using routinely collected health billing records for 2005-2012, we examine h...

Objectives To evaluate a multidisciplinary team (MDT) case management intervention, at the individual (direct effects of intervention) and practice levels (potential spillover effects). Design Difference-in-differences design with multiple intervention start dates, analysing hospital admissions data. In secondary analyses, we stratified individual-...

In 2003, the Turkish government introduced major health system changes, the Health Transformation Programme (HTP), to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). The HTP leveraged changes in all parts of the health system, organization, financing, resource management and service delivery, with a new family medicine model introducing primary care at th...

Background: Multimorbidity is increasingly prevalent and represents a major challenge in primary care. Patients with multimorbidity are potentially more likely to experience safety incidents due to the complexity of their needs and frequency of their interactions with health services. However, rigorous syntheses of the link between patient safety...

Background Demographic changes, ageing populations and increasing numbers of patients with multiple long-term conditions (multimorbidity) means health systems must change organisation and delivery to match patient need. Health systems globally are therefore looking to implement ‘integrated care’ as a means to achieve better health system outcomes (...