Jonathan Michael Powell

Jonathan Michael Powell
University of Central Florida | UCF · Department of Political Science

PhD

About

23
Publications
9,882
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
818
Citations
Additional affiliations
August 2014 - February 2015
Nazarbayev University
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)
August 2014 - present
University of Central Florida
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)
August 2012 - July 2014
Nazarbayev University
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)

Publications

Publications (23)
Article
Recent years have seen increased scholarly attention given to the issue of child soldiering. Primarily dedicated to the decision-making calculus of rebel groups, this body of work has generally emphasised supply-side versus demand-side arguments. We contribute to this growing literature by explicitly investigating a previously untested aspect of th...
Article
Prior research has found that though higher levels of women’s equality are associated with more peaceful interstate relations, female executives have been found to be significantly more hawkish than their male counterparts. We argue that this paradox can be explained by considering the gender environment in which those executives are operating. Fir...
Preprint
Full-text available
Our analysis points to a more pessimistic view of the influence of failed coups on democratization. Specifically, we find that the nature of these transitions, often being drawn out over several years, and the nature of the quantitative data previously utilized to test the association undermine the ability to observe a democratizing effect. Instead...
Article
In contrast to the conventional wisdom that democratization reduces coups, 46% of coups targeted democracies from 2000–2009, twice the rate seen in the prior half-century. Efforts to explain coups have arrived at wildly varied conclusions regarding the vulnerability of democracies. We argue that this is attributable to regime type acting as a condi...
Article
Full-text available
This paper challenges recent claims that competitive market dynamics incentivize Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs) to fully commit to providing effective services, thereby reducing the duration of civil war. Our assessment of a most-likely case scenario for this argument-Sierra Leone-reveals four critical problems. First, there is rar...
Article
It is paradoxical that authoritarian leaders often hold power for long periods of time, despite their states being plagued with rebellion. Scholarship has argued the practice of coup-proofing is potentially responsible for this trend. However, though regular armed forces are often allowed to whither when coup-proofing, states often retain substanti...
Article
Full-text available
Since 1990, Côte d’Ivoire has experienced over a dozen army mutinies, with three major events occurring in the first half of 2017. This paper explores the underlying causes of these events, considering both this year’s mutinies and the state’s prior experiences with military insubordination. A review of the events of Côte d’Ivoire’s tumultuous 2017...
Article
The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of women in politics on the risk of a coup d’état. Previous research indicates that the relationship between female political leaders and security is dependent on the office she holds. Subsequently, we expect female legislators to have a different influence than a female chief executive on the...
Article
Signals from domestic and international actors have been shown to influence the likelihood of coups. Coups remain difficult to predict and consequently leave policy makers in a reactive stance, but little systematic work assesses how these reactions influence long-term outcomes. We examine how reactions from domestic and international actors influe...
Article
Despite being traditionally seen as the largest threat to democratization, coups have recently been argued to provide a window of opportunity for a democratic transition (e.g., Marinov & Goemans 2014). Central to post-coup democratization is the belief that the international community can exert sufficient leverage to coerce coup-born governments to...
Article
Full-text available
Since 1990, Côte d’Ivoire has experienced over a dozen army mutinies, with three major events occurring in the first half of 2017. This paper explores the underlying causes of these events, considering both this year’s mutinies and the state’s prior experiences with military insubordination. A review of the events of Côte d’Ivoire’s tumultuous 2017...
Article
The capitalist peace thesis argues transnational economic ties have a pacifying effect on interstate relations. An extension of this literature reports that economic ties can prompt belligerents in civil conflicts to peacefully resolve their disputes and can attract third-party intervention from states with strong economic ties. This pacifying effe...
Article
Full-text available
Recent years have seen African militaries attempt coups in virtually every geographic region, from Egypt to Lesotho and Guinea to Madagascar. They have targeted established democracies, infantile democratic experiments, increasingly authoritarian executives, power vacuums brought on by leader death, and—most recently in Burundi—leaders attempting t...
Article
Full-text available
This paper investigates civil conflict as a product of the survival strategies of African leaders. Specifically, the paper offers a theory of risk substitution that predicts coup-fearing leaders will undermine the military effectiveness of the state when making an effort to extend their own tenure. While ‘coup-proofing’ practices have often been no...
Article
Full-text available
The Egyptian military's unconstitutional removal of President Mohamed Morsi has reignited a debate regarding the theory of the ‘democratic coup’. Though coups are almost invariably condemned, many political observers and a few scholars have recently argued that coups can act as catalysts for democratisation. This paper empirically assesses the demo...
Article
Full-text available
This paper considers how coups impact democratization. Current research focuses on coups as a threat to consolidated and fledgling democracies. Policymakers have adapted to this viewpoint by treating coups as unjustifiable maneuvers that must be curtailed, with states frequently terminating aid and IOs suspending membership following a coup. While...
Article
Scholars of international relations have actively debated the consequences of globalization. Among this literature is growing attention to the status of women. While scholars have largely treated globalization as either simply improving or degrading women’s rights, we point to a conditional relationship. We argue that international trade can act as...
Article
Full-text available
Previous studies have attested to leaders “coup-proofing” their regimes by reducing the ability or disposition of their armies to seek their removal. The following article tests the utility of these efforts. “Structural” coup-proofing such as counterbalancing is expected to reduce the ability to organize a coup plot by creating substantial coordina...
Article
Full-text available
Diversionary theory has largely been focused on democracies, specifically the United States and Great Britain. Attempts to explain the diversionary tendencies of non-democracies have not fully specified the conditions under which authoritarian leaders - who do not face a legitimate prospect of losing office through elections - should have the need...
Article
In this article, I move beyond prior efforts to explore the relationship between the risk of a coup and international conflict by considering alternatives that leaders can utilize to strengthen their regimes. I offer two theoretical expectations. First, I theorize that leaders lose the incentive and ability to use diversion when the structural coup...
Article
Full-text available
Once considered a 'hot topic' among scholars, research on coups d'état has waned in recent years. This decline is surprising given that 7 coups have happened between January 2008 and December 2010, bringing the last decade's total to almost three dozen. One explanation for the lack of coup research is the absence of a temporally and spatially compr...

Network

Cited By