Jonathan A. Parker

• Ph.d. in economics from MIT
• Professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology

We analyze a dynamic credit market where banks choose lending standards, modeled as costly effort to screen out bad borrowers. Tighter standards worsen the borrower pool, increasing banks’ incentives to employ tight standards in the future. This dynamic complementarity in lending standards can amplify and prolong downturns, decreasing lending and i...

Target date funds (TDFs) provide retirement investors, many of whom are unsophisticated or inattentive, with age-appropriate exposures to different asset classes like stocks and bonds. To maintain exposures, TDFs trade actively against market returns, buying stock funds when the stock market does poorly, and selling when the market does well (Parke...

Target date funds (TDFs) are designed to provide unsophisticated or inattentive investors with age‐appropriate exposures to different asset classes like stocks and bonds. The rise of TDFs has moved a significant share of retirement investors into macrocontrarian strategies that sell stocks after relatively good stock market performance. This rebala...

Using proprietary financial data on millions of households, we show that likely‐Republicans increased the equity share and market beta of their portfolios following the 2016 presidential election, while likely‐Democrats rebalanced into safe assets. We provide evidence that this behavior was driven by investors interpreting public information based...

Analyzing account-level data from an account aggregator, we find that households increase consumption when they receive expected tax refunds, as if they face liquidity constraints. However, these same households smooth consumption when making payments in other years, primarily by transferring funds among liquid accounts. Even households carrying cr...

This paper evaluates the Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS ) by comparing the vehicle purchases and disposals of households with eligible “clunkers” to those of households with similar but ineligible vehicles. CARS caused roughly 500,000 purchases during the program period. The provision of liquidity, through a rebate usable as a down payment, was...

Using variation in minimum wages across cities and controlling for differences in business‐cycle factors and long‐run local economic trends, we find that following minimum wage increases, both, prices and nominal spending rise modestly. These gains are larger for certain subcategories of goods such as food away from home and in locations where low‐...

We evaluate the consistency of two methods for estimating the effect of an economic policy: (i) asking people how the policy caused them to change their behavior (reported effects) and (ii) inferring this change using data on behavior and differences in treatment across people (revealed-preference estimates). Both methods are widely used to measure...

This paper evaluates theoretical explanations for the propensity of households to increase spending in response to the arrival of predictable, lump-sum payments, using households in the Nielsen Consumer Panel who received $25 million in randomly distributed stimulus payments. The pattern of spending is inconsistent with models in which identical ho...

We develop a structural theory of beliefs and behavior that relaxes the assumption of time consistency in beliefs. Our theory is based on the trade-off between optimism, which raises anticipatory utility, and objectivity, which promotes efficient actions. We present it in the context of allocating work on a project over time, develop testable impli...

This chapter explains why the collection of panel (re-interview) data on a comprehensive measure of household expenditures is of great value both for measuring budget shares (the core mission of a Consumer Expenditure survey) and for the most important research and public policy uses to which CE data can be applied, including construction of spendi...

Households in the Nielsen Consumer Panel were surveyed about their 2008 Economic Stimulus Payment. In estimates identified by the randomized timing of disbursement, the average household's spending rose by ten percent the week it received a Payment and remained high cumulating to 1.5–3.8 percent of spending over three months. These estimates imply...

No abstract available.

We do not have a good measure of the effects of fiscal policy in a recession because the methods that we use to estimate the effects of fiscal policy--both those using the observed outcomes following different policies in aggregate data and those studying counterfactuals in fitted model economies--almost entirely ignore the state of the economy and...

We measure the response of household spending to the economic stimulus payments (ESPs) disbursed in mid-2008, using special questions added to the Consumer Expenditure Survey and variation arising from the randomized timing of when the payments were disbursed. We find that, on average, households spent about 12-30% (depending on the specification)...

We document a large increase in the cyclicality of the incomes of high-income households, coinciding with the rise in their share of aggregate income. In the U.S., since top income shares began to rise rapidly in the early 1980s, incomes of those in the top 1 percent of the income distribution have averaged 14 times average income and been 2.4 time...

We study a market for funding real investment where valuation—meaning investors devoting resources to acquiring information about future payoffs—creates an adverse selection problem. Unlike previous models, more valuation is associated with lower market prices and so greater returns to valuation. This strategic complementarity in the capacity to do...

all projects are funded. In the region of multiplicity, the move from a pooling (socially efficient) equilibrium to a valuation (socially inefficient) equilibrium involves many features of a financial crisis: prices decline (interest spreads rise); real investment declines; unsophisticated investors leave the market (flight to quality) and sophisti...

We document a large increase in the cyclicality of the incomes of high-income households, coinciding with the rise in their share of aggregate income. In the United States, since top income shares began to rise rapidly in the early 1980s, incomes of those in the top 1 percent of the income distribution have averaged 14 times average income and been...

The initial implementation of the System of National Accounts (1993) for the United States by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve Board has two significant advantages for economists. First, the SNA are organized according to sectors of the economy defined by economic agents: firms, financial institutions, consumers, governments...

The consumption of high-consumption households is more exposed to fluctuations in aggregate consumption and income than that of low-consumption households in the Consumer Expenditure (CEX) Survey. The exposure to aggregate consumption growth of households in the top 10 percent of the consumption distribution in the CEX is about five times that of h...

As we write in late December 2008, the economy is mired in a year-long recession, the US stock market is down 40% for the year, the US government is lending hundreds of billions of dollars to keep financial institutions and some large industrial firms afloat, and the unemployment rate stands at 6.7 percent. Real per capita consumption of nondurable...

An Euler equation is a difference or differential equation that is an intertemporal first-order condition for a dynamic choice problem. It describes the evolution of economic variables along an optimal path. It is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a candidate optimal path, and so is useful for partially characterizing the theoretical imp...

This paper explores the consequences of cognitive dissonance, coupled with time-inconsistent preferences, in an intertemporal decision problem with two distinct goals: acting decisively on early information (vision) and adjusting flexibly to late information (flexibility). The decision maker considered here is capable of manipulating information to...

Human beings want to believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to make good decisions that increase average outcomes in the future. We consider a general equilibrium model with complete markets and show that when investors hold beliefs that optimally balance these two incentives, portfolio holdings and asset prices mat...

Human beings want to believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to make good decisions that increase average outcomes in the future. We consider a general equilibrium model with complete markets and show that when investors hold beliefs that optimally balance these two incentives, portfolio holdings and asset prices mat...

Using questions expressly added to the Consumer Expenditure Survey, we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by the 2001 federal income tax rebates and test the permanent income hypothesis. We exploit the unique, randomized timing of rebate receipt across households. Households spent 20 to 40 percent of their rebates on nondurable...

We investigate the salary returns to the ability to play football with both feet. The majority of footballers are predominantly right footed. Using two data sets, a cross-section of footballers in the five main European leagues and a panel of players in the German Bundesliga, we find robust evidence of a substantial salary premium for two-footed ab...

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 1996. Includes bibliographical references (p. 175-182). by Jonathan A. Parker. Ph.D.

Forward-looking agents care about expected future utility flows, and hence have higher current felicity if they are optimistic. This paper studies utility-based biases in beliefs by supposing that beliefs maximize average felicity, optimally balancing this benefit of optimism against the costs of worse decision making. A small optimistic bias in be...

This paper uses the consumption Euler equation to derive a decomposition of consumption growth into four sources. These four sources are new information, and three sources of predictable consumption growth: intertemporal substitution, changes in the preferences for consumption, and incomplete markets for consumption insurance. Using household-level...

This Paper introduces a tractable, structural model of subjective beliefs. Forward-looking agents care about expected future utility flows, and hence have higher current felicity if they believe that better outcomes are more likely. On the other hand, biased expectations lead to poorer decisions and worse realized outcomes on average. Optimal expec...

This paper introduces a tractable, structural model of subjective beliefs. Since agents that plan for the future care about expected future utility flows, current felicity can be increased by believing that better outcomes are more likely. On the other hand, expectations that are biased towards optimism worsen decision making, leading to poorer rea...

This paper evaluates the central insight of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) that an asset’s expected return is determined by its equilibrium risk to consumption. Rather than measure the risk of a portfolio by the contemporaneous covariance of its return and consumption growth — as done in the previous literature on the CCAPM and...

This paper evaluates the equity premium using novel data on the consumption of luxury goods. Specifying utility as a nonhomothetic function of both luxury and basic consumption goods, we derive pricing equations and evaluate the risk of holding equity. Household survey and national accounts data mostly reflect basic consumption, and therefore overs...

We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight from emerging markets) prior to and during the 2008 fi...

This paper evaluates the central insight of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (C-CAPM) that an asset's expected return is determined by its equilibrium risk to consumption. Rather that measure the risk of a portfolio by the contemporaneous covariance of its return and consumption growth -- as done in the previous literature on the C-CAPM...

This paper estimates a structural model of optimal life-cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labor income uncertainty. We employ synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age-profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education a...

This paper explores the consequences of cognitive dissonance, coupled with time-inconsistent preferences, in an intertemporal decision problem with two distinct goals: acting decisively on early information (vision) and adjusting flexibly to late information (flexibility). The decision maker considered here is capable of manipulating information to...

One of the basic motives for saving is the accumulation of wealth to insure future welfare. Both introspection and extant research on consumption insurance find that people face substantial risks that they do not fairly pool. In theory, the consumption and wealth accumulation of price-taking households in an economy with incomplete markets differs...

During the past two decades, the personal saving rate in the United States has fallen from 8% to below zero, and the share of GDP that households consume rose by 6 percentage points. This increase in the share of consumption was concurrent with a reduction in the growth rate of real consumption spending per person, high real rates of return, and an...

The key implication of rational expectations and the basic life-cycle/permanent-income hypothesis: that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures, is examined. This implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy, the causes and propagation of busines...

In tax year 1988, delaying filing income tax returns cost the 73.2 million taxpayers claiming refunds nearly one billion dollars of interest. “Impatient” tax filers, who mail in their tax payments before the filing deadline, passed up $46 million in interest. We develop a model of tax filing based on stochastic opportunity cost, and then investigat...

This paper exploits a natural experiment provided by the pattern of payroll taxation in the U.S. to test whether household consumption responds to predictable changes in after-tax income.

This paper employs a synthetic cohort technique and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age-profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. Even after controlling for family and cohort effects, typical consumption profiles are not flat, and seem to t...

In the period since the 1960s, as in other periods, aggregate time series on real wages have displayed only modest cyclicality. Macroeconomists, therefore, have described weak cyclicality of real wages as a salient feature of the business cycle. Contrary to this conventional wisdom, the authors' analysis of longitudinal microdata indicates that rea...

In the summer of 2003, the US government mailed around $14 billion in child tax credit payments to millions of households. Using special questions added to the Consumer Expenditure Survey, we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by receipt of these payments, by comparing the spending of households that receive payments in a given...

This paper demonstrates that, when sellers have market power and buyers time their purchases, predictable fluctuations in demand are fluc-tuations in the elasticity of demand. These fluctuations in the elasticity of demand alter the propagation of demand-driven cycles. The markup of price over marginal cost is shown to be low on the up-side of boom...