Jonathan M. Eden

Jonathan M. Eden
Coventry University | CU · Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience

BSc, MSc, PhD

About

59
Publications
10,684
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
709
Citations
Citations since 2017
42 Research Items
585 Citations
2017201820192020202120222023020406080100120140
2017201820192020202120222023020406080100120140
2017201820192020202120222023020406080100120140
2017201820192020202120222023020406080100120140
Additional affiliations
January 2019 - present
Coventry University
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)
June 2017 - December 2018
Coventry University
Position
  • Fellow
May 2014 - June 2017
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
Position
  • PostDoc Position
Education
October 2007 - April 2011
University of Birmingham
Field of study
  • Climate Science

Publications

Publications (59)
Article
Full-text available
Understanding and attributing the characteristics of extreme events that lead to societal impacts is a key challenge in climate science. Detailed analysis of individual case studies is particularly important in assessing how anthropogenic climate change is changing the likelihood of extreme events and their associated risk at relevant spatial scale...
Article
Understanding how the overall risks of extreme events are changing in a warming world requires both a thermodynamic perspective and an understanding of changes in the atmospheric circulation.
Article
Full-text available
Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, c...
Article
Full-text available
In order to assess to what extent regional climate models (RCMs) yield better representations of climatic states than general circulation models (GCMs) the output of each is usually directly compared with observations. RCM output is often bias-corrected and in some cases correction methods can also be applied to GCMs. This leads to the question of...
Article
The ability of general circulation models (GCMs) to correctly simulate precipitation is usually assessed by comparing simulated mean precipitation with observed climatologies. However, to what extent the skill in simulating average precipitation indicates how well the models represent temporal changes is unclear. A direct assessment of the latter i...
Article
CMIP6 models suggest that extreme fire weather associated with the April 2021 Cape Town wildfire has become 90% more likely in a warmer world.
Preprint
Full-text available
Weather and climate play an important role in shaping global wildfire regimes and geographical distributions of burnable area. As projected by the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6), in the near future, fire danger is likely to increase in many regions due to warmer temperatures and drier conditions....
Article
Full-text available
Understanding hydrological variability is of crucial importance for water resource management in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While existing studies typically focus on individual river basins, and suffer from incomplete records, this study provides a new perspective of trends and variability in hydrological flood and drought characteristics (frequency...
Article
Full-text available
In many parts of the world, wildfires have become more frequent and intense in recent decades, raising concerns about the extent to which climate change contributes to the nature of extreme fire weather occurrences. However, studies seeking to attribute fire weather extremes to climate change are hitherto relatively rare and show large disparities...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Sub-Saharan Africa is affected by a high-level of temporal and spatial variability in climate, with large impacts on water resources, human lives and economies, notably through hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts. Using a newly reconstructed 65-year daily streamflow dataset of over 600 stations distributed throughout sub-Saharan Afri...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Sub-Saharan Africa is affected by a high-level of temporal and spatial climate variability, with large impacts on water resources, human lives and economies, notably through hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts. Using a newly reconstructed 65-year daily streamflow dataset of over 600 stations distributed throughout sub-Saharan Africa,...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Climate change, as one of the most significant challenges that humans currently face, is defined as a shift in climate patterns in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. Notably, climate change has been associated with global warming temperature, regional changes in rainfall patterns and extreme events. Such changes in c...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In response to the occurrence of a number of large wildfire events across the world in recent years, the question of the extent to which climate change may be altering the meteorological conditions conducive to wildfires has become a hot topic of debate. Despite the development of attribution methodologies for extreme events in the last decade, att...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Weather and climate play an important role in shaping geographical distributions of burnable areas and global fire regimes. At global scale, fire danger is likely to increase in the near future in most regions of the world due to warmer temperatures, drier conditions and changes in precipitation patterns, as projected by the Sixth Assessment Report...
Article
Full-text available
The meteorological conditions that coincided with extreme wildfires in Siberia during 2020 were up to 80% more likely than a century ago as a result of global warming.
Preprint
Full-text available
In many parts of the world, wildfires have become more frequent and intense in recent decades, raising concerns about the extent to which climate change contributes to the nature of extreme fire weather occurrences. However, studies seeking to attribute fire weather extremes to climate change are hitherto relatively rare and show large disparities...
Article
Full-text available
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows a large diversity of events that is modulated by climate variability and change. The representation of this diversity in climate models limits our ability to predict their impact on ecosystems and human livelihood. Here, we use multiple observational datasets to provide a probabilistic description of histor...
Article
Full-text available
Fire remains one of the main natural disturbance factors in the European boreal zone and understanding climatic forcing on fire activity is important for projecting effects of climate change on ecosystem services in this region. We analyzed records of annually burned areas in 16 administrative regions of the European boreal zone (countries or admin...
Preprint
Full-text available
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows a large diversity of events, whose modulation by climate variability and change, and their representation in climate models, limit our ability to predict their impact on ecosystems and human livelihood. Here, we use multiple observational datasets to provide a probabilistic description of historical variati...
Article
Full-text available
West Africa exhibits decadal patterns in the behaviour of droughts and floods, creating challenges for effective water resources management. Proposed drivers of prolonged shifts in hydrological extremes include the impacts of land-cover change and climate variability in the region. However, while future land-degradation or land-use are highly unpre...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Africa is affected by a high-level of temporal and spatial variability in climate, with large impacts on water resources, human lives and economies. Due to data scarcity, the impact of multi-year climate variations on hydrological variability and extremes, i.e. flood and drought, as well as how catchment properties could modulate those impacts, are...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Weather and climate play an important role in shaping global fire regimes and geographical distributions of burnable areas. At the global scale, fire danger is likely to increase in the near future due to warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, as projected by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cl...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In response to the occurrence of large wildfire events across both hemispheres in recent years, the effort to understand the extent to which climate change may be altering the frequency of fire-conducive meteorological conditions has become an emerging subfield of attribution science. However, to date, the relative paucity of wildfire attribution s...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Wildfires constitute a major natural hazard and pose huge risk to many regions of the world. The series of large fires across both hemispheres in recent years have led to inevitable questions about how human-induced climate change may be altering the character of such events. Providing answers to these questions is a crucial step to increasing resi...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
While there is a discernible global warming fingerprint in the increase observed daily temperature extremes, there is far greater uncertainty of the role played by anthropogenic climate change with regard to extreme precipitation. A logical progression of thought is that an increase in extreme precipitation results from the 7% increase in atmospher...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change is expected to significantly impact on the availability of water resources in West and Central Africa through changes in rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration. Understanding these changes in this region, where surface water is fundamental for economic activity and ecosystem services, is of paramount importance. In this study,...
Article
Full-text available
The ability to predict forest fire risk at monthly, seasonal, and above‐annual time scales is critical to mitigate its impacts, including fire‐driven dynamics of ecosystem and socio‐economic services. Fire is the primary driving factor of the ecosystem dynamics in the boreal forest, directly affecting global carbon balance and atmospheric concentra...
Article
Full-text available
This study provides the first assessment of CMIP5 model performances in simulating southern Africa (SA) rainfall variability in austral summer (Nov–Feb), and its teleconnections with large-scale climate variability at different timescales. Observed SA rainfall varies at three major timescales: interannual (2–8 years), quasi-decadal (8–13 years; QDV...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
It is now widely recognized that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs in more than one form, e.g. eastern and central Pacific ENSO. Given that these various ENSO flavours may contribute to climate variability and trends in different ways, this study presents a framework that treats ENSO as a continuum to examine its impact on precipitation, a...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Nino events display a diverse range of amplitudes, temporal evolution and spatial patterns, the realization that ENSO impact can be highly sensitive to this ev...
Article
Full-text available
A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 5...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Climate warming is expected to significantly impact hydrological systems, through changes in rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration over West and Central Africa. Understanding these changes over this part of the world, where surface water is fundamental for economic activity and ecosystem services, is of paramount importance. In this study, w...
Article
Full-text available
Attributing the change in likelihood of extreme weather events, particularly those occurring at small spatiotemporal scales, to anthropogenic forcing is a key challenge in climate science. While a warmer world is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture on a global scale, the impact on the magnitude of extreme precipitation episodes has...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The water management community has hitherto underestimated many of the uncertainties in climate impact scenarios, in particular, uncertainties associated with decadal climate variability. For instance, southern African summer rainfall has recently been shown to exhibit significant periodicities at the interannual timescale (2-8 years), quasi-decada...
Article
Full-text available
An attribution study has been performed to investigate the degree to which the unusually cold European winter of 2009/10 was modified by anthropogenic climate change. Two different methods have been included for the attribution: one based on large HadGEM3-A ensembles and one based on a statistical surrogate method. Both methods are evaluated by com...
Conference Paper
The water management community has hitherto neglected or underestimated many of the uncertainties in climate impact scenarios, in particular, uncertainties associated with decadal climate variability. Uncertainty in the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is time-scale-dependant, e.g.stronger at decadal than at interannual timescales, in...
Article
Full-text available
Empirical models, designed to predict surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on...
Article
Full-text available
Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, NGOs and companies and relies on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to b...
Article
Full-text available
Precipitation is highly variable in space and time; hence, rain gauge time series generally exhibit additional random small-scale variability compared to area averages. Therefore, differences between daily precipitation statistics simulated by climate models and gauge observations are generally not only caused by model biases, but also by the corre...
Article
Recent periods of drought in Ethiopia and other parts of East Africa have highlighted the growing importance of producing reliable forecasts of seasonal precipitation. Key in deriving such forecasts is a good understanding of the atmospheric and oceanic drivers of different precipitation regimes. In Ethiopia and other parts of East Africa, interann...
Article
Full-text available
Producing reliable estimates of changes in precipitation at local and regional scales remains an important challenge in climate science. Statistical downscaling methods are often utilized to bridge the gap between the coarse resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) and the higher resolutions at which information is required by end users. As...
Article
Understanding long-term changes in daily precipitation characteristics, particularly those associated with extreme events, is an important component of climate change science and impact assessment. Estimates of such changes are required at local scales where impacts are most keenly felt. However, the limited spatial resolution of General Circulatio...
Article
Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation on both regional and global scales substantially influence interannual variability of precipitation in Ethiopia and the surrounding countries. Previous studies have revealed links between ENSO and summer rainfall in East Africa. As this region has been frequently affected by se...
Conference Paper
A verified instrumental calibration of annually resolved 𝛅18O for a stalagmite from Gümü?hane in northeast Turkey is presented and cross validated using a ‘leave-one-out’ technique. The amount of late autumn to winter precipitation is negatively correlated with stalagmite 𝛅18O between AD 1938 and 2004. The observed relationship is extrapolated back...
Conference Paper
A verified instrumental calibration of annually resolved δ18O for a stalagmite from Gümüşhane in northeast Turkey is presented and cross validated using a ‘leave-one-out’ technique. The amount of late autumn to winter precipitation is negatively correlated with stalagmite δ18O between AD 1938 and 2004. The observed relationship is extrapolated back...
Article
A verified instrumental calibration of annually resolved δ18O for a stalagmite from Gümüşhane in northeast Turkey is presented and cross-validated using a ‘leave-one-out’ technique. The amount of late autumn to winter precipitation is negatively correlated with stalagmite δ18O between AD 1938 and 2004. The observed relationship is extrapolated back...
Conference Paper
Regional- or local-scale precipitation changes cannot be directly inferred from precipitation simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) due to limited GCM spatial resolution. To overcome the problem, one possibility is to estimate regional precipitation through statistical downscaling. For climate change studies the statistical links between l...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are associated not only with rising global temperatures, but are also expected to lead to considerable changes in global precipitation patterns. Estimates for precipitation changes on a local scale are difficult to obtain because General Circulation Models (GCMs) are unable to resolve the small-scale pro...
Conference Paper
GCMs are the most important tool in estimating future climate change. Although projections of large-scale circulation made by GCMs are relatively skilful, precipitation is still considered to be poorly represented. In order to accurately reproduce precipitation fields, models must be able to represent a number of processes, such as condensation, ev...

Network

Cited By

Projects

Projects (9)
Project
The threat of climate change is emerging at a time of rapid growth for many economies in Africa. Dominant narratives comprising ambitious development plans are commons and often concern sectors that are highly exposed to climate variability, e.g. water, agriculture and hydropower (African Union 2014). The prospect of shifts in water resources and variability underscores the need for better understanding the drivers of variability and trend to improve the predictability of their impact on water-dependent sectors. While we have confidence in the ability of climate models, either global or regional, to project future rising temperature, rainfall projections are much more uncertain. In particular, the last two generations of climate models largely underestimate internal/natural modes of decadal climate variability at global scale (Ault et al. 2012; Mann et al. 2020), and their impacts on water resources at the regional scale (Dieppois et al. 2019). Thus, current climate projections offer a limited view of prolonged drought and wet conditions, which are crucial for adaptation strategies (Clark et al. 2016). It also implies that potential important sources of decadal variability are currently misrepresented or absent in these models (Ault et al. 2012, Mann et al. 2020), in spite of their major importance and effects in the real world. Such shortcomings are particularly important for regions that have historically been affected by decadal drought, such as West Africa in the 1970s/80s (Nicholson et al. 2018), where current climate projections disagree on the extent of the changes (Monerie et al. 2017). Building on recent advances in climate modelling and impact studies, this research programme first aims at addressing this issue by providing the necessary underpinnings toward the develop of a framework for assessing decadal-scale climate-risk on water resources in West Africa. The research has two objectives: [Objective 1] To identify potential missing sources of decadal climate variability in the latest generation of climate models, and how it impacts hydroclimatic extremes in West Africa (cf. Sect. Objectives); [Objective 2] To develop scenarios quantifying the global atmospheric circulation response, as well as the vulnerability of West African water resources, to changes in decadal climate variability using climate modelling sensitivity experiments (cf. Sect. Objectives). This research programme ultimately aims at providing data on the reliability of current climate models, and the potential hidden vulnerability of West African water resources to decadal-scale changes in climate.
Project
Given heightened concerns about climate change and human impacts upon water resources, it is critical to provide information about current and future variations in hydrological characteristics. By elucidating patterns and drivers of hydrological response, it is possible to assess those regions and time-periods most susceptible to climate change/ variability and anthropogenic influences and, thus, inform decision-makers so that water hazards and stress (e.g. floods and droughts) may be mitigated. Thus, the aim of EURO-FRIEND Project 3 is to identify and understand variations in hydrological behaviour at a range of spatial (within-basin to global) and temporal (event to multi-decadal) scales. As the project title indicates, much of the research effort is targeted toward large-scale (global to regional) hydrology. More specific research themes include: 1. Methods for detection/quantification of hydrological variability and change in space and time (scale issues) 2. Large scale climate-hydrology interactions (teleconnections) 3. Reconstructing and Predicting hydrological variability, including floods and droughts, at regional to global scale The research approach of the group is holistic. Research spans the spectrum of hydrological descriptors (average, minimum (drought), maximum (floods), annual regimes, duration curves, moments etc.), rather than focusing upon certain aspects of the hydrological regime. Furthermore, several participants work on the atmosphere-surface water-groundwater process cascade and, thus, bridge traditional (sub-)discipline boundaries. It may be suggested that the benefit and unique aspect of EURO-FRIEND Project 3 is the cross-cutting nature of research activities, which encourage the group and participants to collaborate with AMIGO (Central America & Caribbean), AMHY (Alpine and Mediterranean), AOC (West and Central Africa), Asia Pacific and MED (Mediterranean), FRIEND programmes, as well as other EURO-FRIEND groups. Project Coordinator: Dr Bastien Dieppois (CAWR-Coventry University; ab9482@coventry.ac.uk) and Prof Nicolas Massei (M2C-Université de Normandie; nicolas.massei@univ-rouen.fr) This project/group is open to everyone, wishing to share and discuss his/her research on large-scale hydrological variability and change. If you like to join, please contact me in private on ResearchGate, or at ab9482@coventry.ac.uk.
Project
To help build resilient communities for attainment of future sustainability