Jonas Eliasson

• Professor
• Managing Director at Swedish Transport Administration

Buses are the most critical part of urban–rural transit systems. However, bus transit services in urban–rural areas face a trade-off between the need for better services and the low profitability resulting from low travel demand. In this study, we show that we can improve the utilization and profitability of urban–rural buses by merging freight tra...

We develop a model for empirical evaluation of the social costs and benefits of street parking charges. From the model, we derive an expression for optimal parking charges and occupancy levels: in optimum, parking search costs are balanced against the loss of consumer surplus from unused parking spaces. Contrary to rules-of-thumb common in practice...

Passenger origin-destination data is an important input for public transport planning. In recent years, new data sources have become increasingly common through the use of the automatic collection of entry counts, exit counts and link flows. However, collecting such data can be sometimes costly. The value of additional data collection hence has to...

During the pandemic, passenger transport has decreased dramatically due to restrictions and recommendations to avoid social contacts. Hopes and expectations have been raised that experiences, habits and improved digital services developed or discovered during the pandemic can lead to a permanent decrease of travel volumes even in the long run, ther...

As railway markets are increasingly deregulated, coordinating and prioritising between capacity requests becomes more complex and more important. This paper describes the advantages and challenges of different allocation methods in vertically separated open-access railway markets, with several railway operators and heterogeneous traffic, and where...

Striking a balance between societal benefits and costs of transportation lies at the heart of transport planning and transport systems analysis. Increased transport and urbanization enable the many benefits of modern socieities through specialization of labour, production and lifestyles – but these trends simultaneously increase the drawbacks of tr...

Social cost-benefit analysis is often used to analyse transport investments, and can also be used for transport operation planning and capacity allocation. If it is to be used for resolving capacity conflicts, however, it is important to know whether transit agencies' timetable requests are consistent with the cost-benefit framework, which is based...

This paper provides two microeconomic models that derive the social cost of a low emission zone (LEZ) for light vehicles. We apply the models to a proposed LEZ for light vehicles in Stockholm, which would prohibit diesel cars of Euro 5 or lower and gasoline cars of Euro 4 or lower in the inner city (25 km²) and conduct a cost-benefit analysis of th...

Railway markets in Europe have been reorganized to allow competition between different operators. Thus, European railways have been vertically separated, separating infrastructure management from provisions of train services. This allows several train operators to compete for passengers and freight services. Different ways have emerged for vertical...

A common argument against car use taxes, such as congestion charges and fuel taxes, is that they hurt poor groups disproportionately. This chapter discusses this argument, explains methodological issues in distributional analyses and summarizes typical empirical findings. How distributional effects of a car use tax should be viewed depends on wheth...

When benefits of proposed infrastructure investments are forecasted, residential location is usually treated as fixed, since very few operational transport models are able to forecast residential relocation. It has been argued that this may constitute a source of serious error or bias when evaluating and comparing the benefits of proposed infrastru...

We analyze the distribution of transit subsidies across population groups in Stockholm. We develop a novel methodology that takes into account that the subsidy per passenger varies across transit links, since production costs and load factors vary. With this, we calculate the subsidy per trip in the transit network and analyze the distribution of s...

The train timetabling problem (TTP) consists of finding a feasible timetable for a number of trains which minimises some objective function, e.g., sum of running times or deviations from ideal departure times. One solution approach is to solve the dual problem of the TTP using so-called bundle methods. This paper presents a new bundle method that u...

Accessibility plays an essential role in determining real estate prices and land use. An understanding of how accessibility and changes in accessibility influence real estate prices is key to making decisions regarding investments in infrastructure projects. From an accessibility point of view, it is not clear that there should be differences in va...

On deregulated railway markets, efficient capacity allocation is important. We study the case where commercial trains and publicly controlled traffic (“commuter trains”) use the same railway infrastructure and hence compete for capacity. We develop a method that can be used by an infrastructure manager trying to allocate capacity in a socially effi...

In recent years, several countries have deregulated passenger railway markets to allow open access. The aim is for competition to lower fares and increase quality of service, thereby increasing demand, economic efficiency and overall social welfare. We use a stylised simulation model to study how open access competition affects fares, demand, suppl...

This paper addresses the problem of measuring the welfare benefits of a transport improvement. We formulate and analyze a rich spatial model that allows for spillovers, matching and income tax, in a setting with multiple work and residential locations and very general worker heterogeneity. The conventional consumer surplus captures part of the bene...

In the last few decades, many railway markets (especially in Europe) have been restructured to allow competition between different operators. This survey studies how competition has been introduced and regulated in a number of different countries around the world. In particular, we focus on a central part of market regulation specific to railway ma...

The Braess Paradox is the counterintuitive fact that creation of a shortcut may make travel slower. As each driver seeks to minimize his/her travel time, the shortcut may become so popular that it causes congestion elsewhere in the road network, thereby increasing the travel time for everyone. We extend the paradox by considering a shortcut that is...

This paper compares the performance of several models forecasting travel time variability for road traffic, using before/after data from the introduction of the Stockholm congestion charges. Models are estimated on before-data, and the models’ forecasts for the after-situation are compared to actual after-measurements. The accuracy of the models va...

Many railway networks suffer from high capacity utilisation. For scheduling all services, adjustments to the desired slots are often needed. Such adjustments might lead to longer travel times, crowded trains, longer waiting times for boarding and for transfers. All of this has an important socio-economic impact on both travellers and train operator...

Problems of dynamic origin-destination-matrix estimation using smart card data can be modelled as entropy maximization problems and efficiently solved using solution techniques such as Lagrangian relaxation. In this paper, we briefly review the literature of OD-matrix estimation and the use of smart card data. We show how this problem can be modell...

We explore the issue of differentiating the valuation of travel time savings (VTTS) in transport cost-benefit analysis, summarising and discussing theories forming the basis for arguments for and against VTTS differentiation. We stress some important implications, insights and consequences of different assumptions relating to these theories, many o...

We analyse distributional effects of four car-related tax instruments: an increase of the fuel tax, a new kilometre tax, an increased CO2-differentiated vehicle ownership tax, and a CO2-differentiated purchase tax on new cars. Distributional effects are analysed with respect to income, lifecycle category, and spatial dimensions. The analysed taxes...

On-rail competition is perhaps the most far-reaching form of deregulation of the railways, giving travellers several options on a single line. It aims to lower fairs and raise quality of service, thereby boosting demand and social welfare. Concerns have been raised, however, regarding if effective competition is possible on such a market, allowing...

Bundle methods are often used to solve dual problems that arise from Lagrangian relaxations of large scale optimization problems. An example of such problems is the train timetabling problem. This paper focuses on solving a dual problem that arises from Lagrangian relaxation of a train timetabling optimization program. The dual problem is solved us...

We have compared Swedish national forecasts for passenger transport produced from 1975 to 2009 with the actual outcomes, and we found substantial differences between forecasts of passenger kilometers by mode and actual outcomes. In forecasts produced since the early 1990 s, road and air traffic growth rates have generally been overpredicted. Aggreg...

Off-peak-hour delivery programs are a promising but challenging concept for promoting sustainable urban logistics. Stockholm, Sweden, initialized a nighttime freight deliveries program in 2014, aimed at a more efficient and environmentally friendly delivery system within the central area of the city. The policy of shifting freight deliveries from d...

On highly used railway lines with heterogeneous traffic, timetabling is challenging. In particular, the limited existing capacity means that to guarantee an acceptable level of quality, the infrastructure manager must cancel some train services on the expense of others. In this article, we study the conflict between commercial long-distance trains...

This paper discusses and analyses whether congestion charges can be considered to be “fair” in different senses of the word. Two different perspectives are distinguished: the consumer perspective and the citizen perspective. The consumer perspective is the traditional one in equity analyses, and includes changes in travel costs, travel times and so...

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still us...

Many western countries have seen a plateau and subsequent decrease of car travel during the 21st century. What has generated particular interest and debate is the statement that the development cannot be explained by changes in traditional explanatory factors such as GDP and fuel prices. Instead, it has been argued, the observed trends are indicati...

IntroductionAbundant literature now exists on the acceptability of the new pricing measure represented by urban tolls. However, this literature contains few examples providing a “political” analysis of their introduction. Here, our aim is to study how the political behavior of individuals, identified on the basis of general attitudes regarding the...

We analyse distributional effects of four car-related tax instruments: an increase of the fuel tax, a new kilometre tax, an increased CO2-differentiated vehicle ownership tax, and a CO2-differentiated purchase tax on new cars. Distributional effects are analysed with respect to income, lifecycle category and several spatial dimensions. All the anal...

Standard cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures will not capture all benefits and losses if there are labour market imperfections. In the case of congestion charges, theoretical analyses have raised concerns that these effects may constitute considerable losses, possibly to the extent that aggregate welfare is reduced, contrary to conve...

Many cities have seen public support for congestion charges increase substantially after charges have been introduced. Several alternative explanations of this phenomenon have been suggested, but so far little evidence has been available to assess the relative importance of these explanations. We study attitudes to congestion pricing in Gothenburg...

We explore how benefit–cost efficiency and electoral support affect road investment decisions in Sweden and Norway. In Norway, neither benefits nor costs seem to affect project selection. In Sweden, civil servants' decisions are strongly affected by projects' benefit–cost ratios, with a stronger effect for more expensive projects, while politicians...

There is a growing body of evidence of public transport passenger willingness to pay (WTP) for soft quality improvements, such as information, comfort, security and on-board facilities. There is also evidence to suggest that the benefits of soft quality improvements by far exceed their costs. However in order to include such measures in standard pr...

The purpose of this paper is to explore to what extent the effects of congestion charges rely on specific features of a city and its transport system. We use Stockholm, and its current congestion charging scheme, as a case study by making various modifications in the transport system influencing the availability and attractiveness of public transpo...

Cost-benefit analysis has become a widely used and well developed tool for evaluation of suggested transport projects. This paper presents our view of the role and position of CBA in a transport planning process, partly based on a survey of a number of countries where CBA plays a formalised role in decision making. The survey shows that methodologi...

Congestion pricing was introduced in Stockholm in 2006, first as a trial followed by a referendum, and permanently from 2007. Public attitudes to the charges became more negative during the period from the decision to the start of the system. Once the trial started, public attitudes became dramatically more positive over the following years, going...

Cost–benefit analyses (CBA) are often questioned on the grounds that results depend crucially on uncertain assumptions about the future, and on ethically or methodologically contestable trade-offs between different types of benefits. This paper explores the robustness of CBA rankings of transport investments with respect to two types of uncertainti...

Path dependency, both institutional and technical, is a main challenge to the paradigm shift from dependence on private car to sustainable transport. An understanding of how policies at national and local levels can change the path dependency is of great importance for devising strategies and policies for the paradigm shift, and bypassing barriers...

Sverige och Norge använder samhällsekonomiska analyser för att prioritera mellan infrastrukturinvesteringar – eller säger sig åtminstone göra det. Vi analyserar nationella infrastrukturplaner från de två länderna för att undersöka om samhällsekonomisk lönsamhet spelar någon roll för vilka investeringar som väljs och om andra faktorer spelar roll. I...

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation...

Well-informed decision making relies on access to all relevant information regarding the consequences of a proposed scheme. Like most other European countries, large road projects in Norway and Sweden are required to undergo a full impact assessment aimed at assessing all impacts, negative or positive and measurable in monetary terms or not, which...

This paper compares forecast effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. The most important concerns during the design of the congestion charging scheme were the traffic reduction in bottlenecks, the increase in public transport ridership, the decrease of vehicle kilometres in the city centre, and potential traffic effects on...

The effects of road pricing on transport and location patterns have been much discussed. However, it is unclear how large the effects are, and whether relocation of households, workplaces and shops will counteract or amplify the effects on transport. In this paper a model of a generic symmetric city is developed. The model is used to investigate th...

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation...

The standard method to estimate valuations of travel time variability for use in appraisal is to estimate the parameters of a reduced-form utility function, where some measure of travel time variability (such as the standard deviation) is included. A recently discovered problem with this approach is that the obtained valuation will in general depen...

Purpose – This chapter provides a think piece on economic evaluation and policy for cycling. Bicycle investments are often motivated by a desire to improve health, the environment and congestion conditions. However, we argue that since the bicycle is a part of the transport system, it should be evaluated as such. Focusing on implications for cyclin...

We estimate the value of time savings, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost-benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists' value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle...

Congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm in 2006, first as a trial followed by a referendum, then permanently from 2007. This paper discusses what conclusions can be drawn from the first five years of operation, until mid-2011. We show that the traffic reduction caused by the charges has increased slightly over time, once external factors ar...

We provide a synthesis of results and insights from the Swedish Value of Time study, with focus on what is relevant for transport appraisal and understanding travel behaviour. We summarize recent econometric advances, and show how these enable a better understanding and identification of the value of time distribution. The influence of the sign and...

Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) for transport investments is particularly useful for situations where a large number of investments have to be ranked against each other. This study draws on experiences from the development of the Swedish National Transport Investment Plan 2010–21. We study how CBA results were used in the process of shaping the investm...

The presence of distortive taxation and agglomeration benefits in the labour market means that there are benefits and losses not captured by standard cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures. Recent theoretical analyses have raised concerns that the labour market effects of congestion charges may constitute considerable losses in the form...

The benefits captured in an appraisal of a railway investment are determined by what timetables the analyst assumes in the scenarios with and without the investment. Without an explicit, objective and verifiable principle for which timetables to assume, the appraisal outcome is virtually arbitrary. This means that appraisals of railway investments...

As more European roads become tolled by various means, an increasing share of road users become subject to more than one tolling scheme in their regular driving. This can be especially burdensome for long distance hauliers, who may pass several countries and tolled motorway systems during the course of 1day. For this reason, a range of projects hav...

Several authors have argued that acceptability for road pricing is likely to increase with familiarity. The experiences in Stockholm, where a trial period with congestion charges changed the public opinion from negative to positive, support this hypothesis. Analysing acceptability and attitudes in Stockholm allows us to study a situation where the...

We investigate how passengers on long-distance trains value unexpected delays relative to scheduled travel time and travel cost. For scheduled services with high reliability and long headways, the value of delays is most commonly assumed to be proportional to the average delay. By exploring how the valuation of train delays depends on delay risk an...

The focus of this paper is on modeling the influence of accessibility on the household’s location decision. Our main theoretical contribution is an elaborate specification of what we should mean by “accessibility” in this context. This is done by assuming that households make a joint choice of location and activity pattern subject to income and tim...

The paper draws from already published material. In fact, a reader already familiar with the congestion charging literature will find few completely new findings or insights. The contribution of the paper is rather the selection of the most relevant, interesting, important and sometimes surprising facts, insights, findings, advice and conclusions f...

This paper presents a cost–benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system, based on the observed rather than on the model-forecasted data. The most important data sources are travel time and traffic flow measurements made in the year before the charges were introduced (during April 2005) and during the first spring with the charges (d...

The Stockholm congestion charging trial in 2006 demonstrated the effects of a full-scale time-differentiated urban road toll scheme. Improvements in travel times were large enough to be perceived by the general public. This was pivotal to the radical change of public attitudes that occurred during the trial and that resulted in a positive outcome o...

The Stockholm congestion charging trial in 2006 resulted in large effects on traffic volumes and congestion. During the trial, public opinion gradually changed from a large majority opposed to the charges to a small majority in favour of them, and a referendum resulted in the charges being reintroduced in 2007. This paper summarises effects on traf...

It is widely recognised that congestion pricing could be an effective measure to solve environmental and congestion problems in urban areas--a reform that normally also would generate a net welfare surplus. Despite this the implementation of congestion pricing has been very slow. One reason for a low public and political acceptance could be that eq...

The Stockholm congestion charging system went live Jan 3rd 2006, being the third dedicated urban congestion charging system in the world (after Singapore and London). What sets it apart is that the system is only a “trial” – albeit a full-scale one, with essentially no compromises compared to what a permanent system would look like. The system cons...

For some decades now, transport researchers have put considerable efforts into developing what is called activity-based approaches for modelling urban travel demand. The basic idea is that travel demand is derived from people’s desires to take part in different activities. In particular, the interrelationships among different activities with respec...

Since strictly optimal (first-best) road pricing policies require information that we will probably never have, it is important to investigate what can be done under more restrictive assumptions as to what information is available. One such case is examined in this paper, where the main restrictive assumptions are that all users have the same choic...

The effects of road pricing on transport and location patterns have been much discussed. However, it is unclear how large the effects are, and whether relocation of households, workplaces and shops will counteract or amplify the effects on transport. In this paper a model of a generic symmetric city is developed. The model is used to investigate th...

The environment in which transportation analysis and infrastructure planning take place has changed dramatically during the last years. The focus is now, to a considerable extent, on how to transform the transportation system in a direction that could be sustainable in the long run, rather than on planning for infrastructure investment to meet new...

We develop a model for integrated analysis of household location and travel choices and investigate it from a theoretical point of view.Each household makes a joint choice of location (zone and house type) and a travel pattern that maximizes utility subject to budget and time constraints. Prices for housing are calculated so that demand equals supp...

We estimate the value of time gains, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost-benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists' value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle la...

The social profitability of a railway investment is decided by how it is used. This is in contrast to road investment. The use of a road is decided by users themselves: the demand is essentially decided by the characteristics of the physical investment and the surrounding network (and variables such as fuel prices etc.). But knowledge about the phy...