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September 1984 - present
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Publications (236)
Emissions reductions may be met with relatively small costs
The Inflation Reduction Act subsidizes the deployment of clean electricity, hydrogen production, and carbon capture and storage, which could enable additional actions by other federal, state, and local policymakers to reduce emissions. Power plant rules finalized by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2024 are one such example of complemen...
With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impac...
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector in...
If goals set under the Paris Agreement are met, the world may hold warming well below 2 C; however, parties are not on track to deliver these commitments, increasing focus on policy implementation to close the gap between ambition and action. Recently, the US government passed its most prominent piece of climate legislation to date, the Inflation R...
Economy-wide emissions drop 43 to 48% below 2005 levels by 2035 with accelerated clean energy deployment.
The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and deman...
This study assesses climate-related financial risks on energy infrastructure investments. We conduct an asset-level and forward-looking risk assessment on three downstream energy assets: natural gas, coal, and solar photovoltaic power plants. We first identify climate risk factors (physical and transition) that an asset is highly exposed to with it...
Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solution...
This paper presents a framework for pricing the climate resilience of an energy infrastructure project through assessing the value of its required debt and equity investments. Integrating climate scenarios into an asset valuation model provides useful and specific insights for risk management, but there is a lack of academic and market tools that e...
The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as th...
To predict how society and political systems might actually respond to warming, upgrade integrated assessment models. To predict how society and political systems might actually respond to warming, upgrade integrated assessment models.
Accurately quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is essential for climate policy implementation but challenging in the case of electricity transfers across regulatory jurisdictions. Regulating emissions associated with delivered electricity is further complicated by contractual arrangements for dynamic electricity transfers that confound emiss...
In, et al. (2020) propose a framework that assesses material financial impacts from climate change and a low-carbon transition on energy infrastructure investments. This study demonstrates the application of the framework using three downstream energy assets: natural gas, coal, and solar photovoltaic power plants. We identify physical and transitio...
The Energy Modeling Forum inter-comparison study on short-lived climate forcers (EMF-30) focuses on black carbon (BC) and methane (CH4), two of the most important warming SLCFs. The study is aimed at quantifying the potential impact of methane and BC-focused reductions on climate change and at comparing the impact of idealized SLCF reductions as co...
This paper presents a framework for pricing the climate resilience of an energy infrastructure project through assessing the value of its required debt and equity investments. Integrating climate scenarios into an asset valuation model provides useful and specific insights for risk management, but there is a lack of academic and market tools that e...
Previous studies have projected a significant role for bioenergy in decarbonizing the global economy and helping realize international climate goals such as limiting global average warming to 2 ˚C or 1.5 ˚C. However, with substantial variability in bioenergy results and significant concerns about potential environmental and social implications, gre...
We present an overview of results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on the viability of large-scale deployment of bioenergy for achieving long-run climate goals. The study explores future bioenergy use across models under harmonized scenarios for future cli...
This paper explores the potential role of bioenergy coupled to carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (BECCS) in long-term global scenarios. We first validate past insights regarding the potential use of BECCS in achieving climate goals based on results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanfor...
In this review, we attempt to describe the evolution of integrated assessment modeling research since the pioneering work of William Nordhaus in 1994, highlighting a number of challenges and suggestions for moving the field forward. The field has evolved from global aggregate models focused on cost-benefit analysis to detailed process models used t...
Accurately attributing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the electric power sector is critical to measuring progress towards climate policy goals. We evaluate a new methodology adopted by the California Energy Commission to calculate the GHG emissions intensity of retail electricity providers. In the long run, the new regulations better align with...
Within Canada, Mexico or the United States, policy-making organizations are evaluating energy markets and energy trade within their own borders often by ignoring how these countries’ energy systems are integrated with each other. These analytical gaps provided the main motivation for the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 34 study on North American energy...
To halt climate change this century, we must reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities to net zero. Any emission sources, such as in the energy or land-use sectors, must be balanced by natural or technological carbon sinks that facilitate CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Projections of demand for large-scale CDR are based on...
This paper presents a framework for pricing the climate resilience of an energy infrastructure project through assessing the value of its required debt and equity investments. Integrating climate scenarios into an asset valuation model provides useful and specific insights for risk management, but there is a lack of academic and market tools that e...
The study of large-scale human energy systems is not new; climate change concerns and advances in computation have created a growing area of study with an increasingly rich set of tools and questions. However, this work is scattered across many research communities. We propose uniting these efforts under a common discipline, which we call “macro-en...
Long time horizon normative models are frequently used for policy analysis, strategic planning, and system analysis. Choosing the granularity of the temporal or spatial resolution of such models is an important modeling decision, often having a first order impact on model results. This type of decision is frequently made by modeler judgment, partic...
Renewed Energy sheds lights on the recent history of clean energy between the 2009 recession and 2012. What went wrong? What went well? Discussions of the history of cleantech frequently focus on what policy initiative was proposed, what energy startup investment went sideways, or what business deal worked—with each of these conversations and analy...
Technology and policy implications of global energy and emissions scenarios can be difficult to analyze because underlying assumptions and drivers of scenarios are rarely made explicit. This article documents methods for standardizing emissions scenario results that can be applied to virtually any scenario, enabling more meaningful comparisons amon...
Chapter 4 "Economic Growth, Human Development, and Welfare" of the 2018 Report of the International Panel on Social Progress (IPSP).
Mission of the IPSP: The International Panel on Social Progress (IPSP) will harness the competence of hundreds of experts about social issues and will deliver a report addressed to all social actors, movements, organ...
This paper is an introduction to, "The EMF 32 Study on U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios," part of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) Model Inter-comparison Project (MIP) number 32. Eleven modeling teams participated in this study examining the economic and environmental impacts of various carbon tax trajectories and differing uses of carbon tax reve...
A number of analyses, meta-analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes...
This article reviews the use of integrated assessment models (IAMs) in climate policy and research at the global scale. Two different types of IAMs are discussed. First, there are models that focus on climate change mitigation options and climate change impacts in some detail without necessarily valuing or aggregating all possible impacts into a si...
Jurisdictions throughout the world are contemplating greenhouse gas (GHG) miti-gation strategies that will enable meeting long-term GHG targets. Many jurisdictions are now focusing on the 2020–2050 timeframe. We conduct an inter-model comparison of nine California statewide energy models with GHG mitigation scenarios to 2050 to better understand co...
Correspondence to editor: We agree with the editors that the assumptions behind models of all types, including integrated assessment models (IAMs), should be as transparent as possible. The editors were in error, however, when they implied that the IAM community is just “now emulating the efforts of climate researchers by instigating their own mode...
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are increasingly used to evaluate carbon policy impacts on energy structure, but different models can yield considerably different results. This paper seeks to frame model results for policymakers and other consumers of model outputs. In this analysis we compare three models: GCAM, MERGE, and EPPA. We apply diagn...
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLICYMAKERS
• According to the most recent Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 24), U.S.
CO 2 emissions are projected to be 2 percent below 2005 levels in 2020
(mean value across all reference case scenarios), though recent trends in
energy markets that are not included in vintage of the models used in
this exercise (e.g., the shale gas ex...
This paper reviews applications of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) in climate policy assessment at the US national and global scales. Two different but related major application types are addressed. First there are global-scale analyses that focus on calculating optimal global carbon emissions trajectories and carbon prices that maximize global welfare...
This paper presents an overview of the study design and the results of the EMF 24 U.S. Technology Scenarios. The EMF 24 U.S. Technology Scenarios engaged nine top energy-environment-economy models to examine the implications of technological improvements and technological availability for reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and 80% by 205...
The Energy Modeling Forum 24 study included a set of policy scenarios designed
to compare economy wide market-based and sectoral regulatory approaches of
potential U.S. climate policy. Models from seven teams participated in this part
of the study assessing economy-wide cap-and-trade climate policy and sectoral
policies in the transportation and el...
Energy efficiency is one of the main options for mitigating climate change. An accurate representation of various mechanisms of energy efficiency is vital for the assessment of its realistic potential. Results of a questionnaire show that the EMF27 models collectively represent known channels of energy efficiency reasonably well, addressing issues...
This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind powe...
This Special issue of Climatic Change documents the main findings of Energy Modeling Forum Model Inter-comparison Project (MIP) number 27 (EMF 27) entitled “The EMF27 Study on Global Technology and Climate Policy Strategies”. This study focused on the development and cross model comparison of results from a new generation of comprehensive internati...
Over the last 30 years or more many long run global energy/economic/environment scenarios have been modeled and a number of model comparison exercises involving these modeled scenarios have been organized. At this point, it makes sense to ask what lessons have been learned from those activities in hopes that these lessons might be useful to those f...
We present a new method that enables users of the federal government's flagship energy policy model (NEMS) to dynamically estimate the direct energy expenditure impacts of climate policy across U.S. household incomes and census regions. Our approach combines NEMS output with detailed household expenditure data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey,...
Although emerging technologies like carbon capture and storage and advanced nuclear are expected to play leading roles in greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, many engineering and policy-related uncertainties will influence their deployment. Capital-intensive infrastructure decisions depend on understanding the likelihoods and impacts of uncertaintie...
The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool...
This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050...
Last year, Senators Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) introduced S. 332, the Climate Protection Act of 2013. Based on a “fee-and-dividend” concept, the bill would levy a carbon pollution fee on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions starting in 2014 at $20 per metric ton of CO2, rising at 5.6% per year through 2023. The carbon pollution fees u...
This paper explores the variation in Asian energy systems in the energy-economic and integrated assessment models participating in the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). Consistent with previous studies, there is substantial variation in energy system configurations across the AME scenarios, a reflection of the inherent uncertainty in how countries mig...
Thermal management is important for the performance and reliability of today's high power and high density electronics systems. The thermal architecture between the device and heat sink can quickly become very complex when designing for ideal operating temperatures. In order to predict the temperature rise, it is desirable to have a simple modeling...
In this paper, we apply a dynamic option-game framework to examine the impact of information time lag on Research and Development
(R&D) investment in innovative information technology (IT) industry. We focus on incentives of competition and coordination
in R&D. Our results show that shorter information time lag may induce firms to coordinate their...
There are at least three motivations for government intervention in GHG mitigation: (1) inducing the private sector to reduce GHG emissions directly by setting a price on emissions, (2) increasing the amount of innovative activity in GHG mitigation technology development, and (3) educating the public regarding GHG-reducing investment opportunities,...
Heat pipe embedded aluminum silicon carbide (AlSiC) plates are innovative heat spreaders that provide high thermal conductivity and low coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE). Since heat pipes are two phase devices, they demonstrate effective thermal conductivities ranging between 10,000 and 200,000 W/m-K, depending on the heat pipe length. Install...
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radia...
The Energy Modeling Forum 22 study included a set of U.S. transition scenarios designed to bracket a range of potential U.S. climate policy goals. Models from the six teams that participated in this part of the study include models that have been prominently involved in analyzing proposed U.S. climate legislation, as well as models that have been i...
This paper develops a stochastic differential game framework for analyzing strate-gic exercise of options. We focus on research and development (R&D) competition in information technology (IT) investment projects with technical and market uncertainty. According to the theory of real options and game theory, uncertainty generates an op-tion value of...
Few integrated analysis models examine significant U.S. transportation greenhouse gas emission reductions within an integrated energy system. Our analysis, using a bottom-up MARKet ALocation (MARKAL) model, found that stringent system-wide CO2 reduction targets will be required to achieve significant CO2 reductions from the transportation sector. M...
This report summarizes the findings and recommendations from the Expert Meeting on New Scenarios in Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, 19- 21 September 2007. This report is the culmination of the combined efforts of the New Scenarios Steering Committee, an author team composed primarily of members of the research community, and numerous other meetin...
The science of economics has made a number of important contributions to understanding greenhouse gases and their optimal control. From basic economic theory, economists have pointed out the need to minimize the sum of mitigation costs and climate damages (Nordhaus 1992). From this simple insight, society can derive an elegant solution to greenhous...
The impact on the world economy of combating climate change will be a key factor in determining society's response. In theory costs should be easy to calculate, but experience has proven otherwise. Each new report that comes out has a differenct price tag, based on varying goals, models, and predictions about technology advances. Our expert panel l...
It is widely acknowledged that technological change can substantially reduce the costs of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. This paper discusses the sources of technological change and the representations of these sources in formal models of energy and the environment. The paper distinguishes between three major sources of...
Deposition of nickel coated hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) via high velocity particle consolidation (Cold spray) has been investigated as a possible self-lubricating coating for surfaces prone to fretting in high performance machines. Although hBN is a solid lubricant, which has a low coefficient of friction and is able to retain its lubricious prop...
The reaction of oil-importing nations to the energy crisis of the 1970s offers insight into a common characteristic of government behavior. Nations often fail to prepare themselves for potentially disastrous crises even when the probability of crisis seems high. Policymakers seem unwilling to confront the fact, for instance, that the oil glut does...
This paper uses a selective review of the economic literature on technological change to support four points that are important for interpreting and incorporating technological change into formal models of energy and the environment. The review (1) supports the notion that no single source dominates the process of technological change. It supports...
This paper explores optimal near-term technology R&D in the face of uncertain damages caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases. The paper puts particular emphasis on understanding how optimal near-term R&D expenditures might vary based on the technologies pursued in the R&D program. The exploration is conducted in the context of varying impacts fr...
In this article, the ratio of central station electricity to final energy is used as a measure of electrification. It is well known that this ratio tends to increase with gross domestic product. We show that not only is electrification a characteristic of a reference case with economic growth, but that it is significantly accelerated by a general l...
The possibility that the high blood cholesterol accompanying protected lipid feeding would cause deposition of cholesterol in body tissues and counteract advantages due to higher polyunsaturated fatty acid content was studied by comparing tissue cholesterol from cows, calves and steers fed polyunsaturated fats with those on conventional diets. Chuc...
