John Michael Kean

John Michael Kean
AgResearch · Biocontrol and Biosecurity

Ph. D.

About

116
Publications
15,905
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2,293
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Introduction
John Kean uses modelling to explore the population dynamics of invasive species. Much of his recent work focuses on optimising surveillance systems and eradication programmes for invasive pests and pathogens. He works closely with the New Zealand border biosecurity authorities and primary industry groups who use his results. John is a member of the Biocontrol and Biosecurity team in AgResearch and a Theme Leader in the Better Border Biosecurity (B3) collaboration.
Additional affiliations
January 1993 - present
AgResearch
Education
January 2005 - December 2007
Lincoln University, New Zealand
Field of study
  • Ecology

Publications

Publications (116)
Article
Full-text available
Non‐native plant pests cause billions of dollars in damages. It is critical to prevent or reduce these losses by intervening at various stages of the invasion process, including pathway risk management (to prevent pest arrival), surveillance and eradication (to counter establishment), and management of established pests (to limit damages). Quantify...
Article
Full-text available
The difficulty to locate mates and overcome predation can hamper species establishment and population maintenance. The effects of sparseness between individuals or the effect of predators on the probability of population growth can be difficult to measure experimentally. For testing hypotheses about population density and predation, we contend that...
Article
Macrolophus pygmaeus , a predatory mirid used to manage greenhouse whitefly, was illegally imported into New Zealand, and for a time was reared and sold to commercial tomato growers. We designed and implemented a risk-based detection survey to determine whether M. pygmaeus was still present in New Zealand a decade later. The survey was designed to...
Article
Full-text available
Invasions by non‐native pests and diseases represent serious threats to biodiversity, agriculture and human health. Under current border arrival rates associated with international trade not all such invasions can be prevented, so early detection and eradication (forced extinction) are important strategies for preventing establishment and long‐term...
Article
The Global Eradication Database (http://b3.net.nz/gerda) documents 811 eradication attempts against invasive arthropods since 1890, in 104 countries. Eradication programs show a greater than exponential increase in the number of programs started in recent decades. In addition, there is a trend of a rapidly diversifying burden of the most severe thr...
Article
Fruit flies (Family Tephritidae), in particular the Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni; QFF), areone of the biggest biosecurity risks for New Zealand horticulture. New Zealand has one of the bestscience-based biosecurity systems in the world, based on years of experience and sound research. Theintroduction of fruit flies to New Zealand is now...
Article
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Effective surveillance for early detection of invasive alien species in natural ecosystems, or on valued plants found in modified areas, could prevent potentially devastating and costly impacts (whether environmental, economic or cultural) of new invasions on the invaded country. Surveillance technologies are often constrained by a range of factors...
Article
Early detection of biological invasions is necessary to enable successful management responses, such as containment and eradication. Several nations operate risk-based surveillance systems for early detection and proof of freedom from economically damaging pests and diseases. Identifying the best times of year to deploy and remove surveillance trap...
Article
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The problem of forest insect invasions is intensifying. Non-native forest insects are invading virtually every world region, and many are causing severe ecological and economic impacts. Biosecurity programs provide for intervention at various stages of the invasion process in order to mitigate the invasion problem. While preventing initial arrival...
Article
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Pest risk analysts frequently ask if the climate of a pest risk analysis area could be suitable for the establishment of an organism of concern. Species distribution models can help to answer this question, but constructing them is technically complex, time consuming, and uninformative for additional non-modelled species. A quicker more broadly app...
Article
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The brown marmorated stinkbug, Halyomorpha halys is a highly polyphagous invasive insect, which has more than 300 reported hosts, including important horticultural crops. It has spread to every Northern Hemisphere continent, most recently to Europe. Whilst there have been no reports of incursions into Southern Hemisphere countries, there have been...
Article
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Several tephritid fruit flies have explosive population growth and a wide host range, resulting in some of the largest impacts on horticultural crops, reducing marketable produce, and limiting market access. For these pests, early detection and eradication are routinely implemented in vulnerable areas. However, social and consumer concerns can limi...
Article
A theoretical debate about whether parasitoids should be time- or egg-limited now recognises both as feasible, and interest has turned to determining the circumstances under which each might arise in the field, and their implications for parasitoid behaviour and evolution. Egg loads of parasitoids sampled from the field are predicted to show a nega...
Article
Data from 190 plant pathogen eradication programs in the Global Eradication and Response Database (GERDA) were reviewed to identify characteristics that contributed to successful programs in 45 countries between 1912 and 2013. The most successful treatment (94%) was tissue culture, often in combination with thermotherapy to eradicate viral or bacte...
Article
The Moroccan ecotype of the braconid parasitoid Microctonus aethiopoides was introduced into New Zealand for biological control of the lucerne pest Sitona discoideus. The parasitoid also attacks several non-target native weevil species found in pasture and also to a lesser extent in native tussock grassland. We carried out a series of laboratory an...
Article
In February 2015, an established population of the Queensland fruit fly (Qfly, Bactrocera tryoni) was detected in Grey Lynn, Auckland. It was questionable whether Qfly might successfully overwinter in Auckland, and how trap efficacy and mating behaviour would be affected by winter conditions. During the official biosecurity response to eradicate Qf...
Article
Full-text available
Eradication is the deliberate elimination of a species from an area. Given that international quarantine measures can never be 100% effective, surveillance for newly arrived populations of nonnative species coupled with their eradication represents an important strategy for excluding potentially damaging insect species. Historically, eradication ef...
Article
Full-text available
Sitona obsoletus is a serious pasture pest in New Zealand where its root-feeding larvae reduce white clover cover and nitrogen fixation. To maintain production, farmers may compensate by increasing inputs. The parasitic wasp Microctonus aethiopoides Loan was introduced for biological control of S. obsoletus and achieved parasitism rates exceeding 7...
Article
Tephritid fruit flies have been comparatively well studied because of the damage they cause to horticultural crops in affected countries. New Zealand benefits from this knowledge as it continues to exclude economically damaging fruit fly species. For example, fruit fly development models are used for biosecurity risk analysis and decision making du...
Article
The identification of new attractants can present opportunities for developing mass trapping, but standard screening methods are needed to expedite this. We have developed a simple approach based on quantifying trap interference in 4 × 4 trap arrays with different spacings. We discuss results from sex pheromones in Lepidoptera (lightbrown apple mot...
Article
Background The number of insect eradication programs is rising in response to globalisation. A database of arthropod and plant pathogen eradications covers 1050 incursion responses, with 928 eradication programs on 299 pest and disease taxa in 104 countries (b3.net.nz/gerda).MethodsA subset of the database was assembled with 211 eradication or resp...
Article
Wood borers and bark beetles are among the most serious forest pests worldwide. Many such species have become successful invaders, often causing substantial, costly damages to forests. Here we design and evaluate the cost-efficiency of a trap-based surveillance program for early detection of wood borers and bark beetles at risk of establishing in Ne...
Article
A wide known host range in Australia and novel herbivory on native and naturalized species in New Zealand supported the decision to commence a NZ$65 million eradication programme against painted apple moth [Teia anartoides (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)] in Auckland (1999–2007).Laboratory no-choice tests were designed to examine the ‘host’ st...
Article
Full-text available
Despite substantial increases in public awareness and biosecurity systems, introductions of non-native arthropods remain an unwelcomed consequence of escalating rates of international trade and travel. Detection of an established but unwanted non-native organism can elicit a range of responses, including implementation of an eradication program. Pr...
Article
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Effective surveillance is critical to managing biological invasions via early detection and eradication. The efficiency of surveillance systems may be affected by the spatial arrangement of sample locations. We investigate how the spatial arrangement of sample points, ranging from random to fixed grid arrangements, affects the probability of detect...
Article
Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) gut analysis was conducted on specimens of the introduced spider Tenuiphantes tenuis collected from dairy pasture in Canterbury, New Zealand. PCR primers were specifically designed to amplify a fragment of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) from Listronotus bonariensis and revealed that this...
Article
Full-text available
Biological control systems are integral to New Zealand’s success as a nation reliant on exporting quality agricultural, forestry and horticultural products. The likely impacts of climate change projections to 2090 on one weed and four invertebrate management systems in differing production sectors were investigated, and it was concluded that most n...
Article
Thermal accumulation ('degree day') methods are routinely used to predict plant and insect phenology. Depending on the data available, prediction may involve three separate steps with associated errors: estimating daily heat units from maximum and minimum temperatures; interpolating daily maxima and minima from monthly averages; and predicting futu...
Article
Cost-effective surveillance strategies are needed for efficient responses to biological invasions and must account for the trade-offs between surveillance effort and management costs. Less surveillance may allow greater population growth and spread prior to detection, thereby increasing the costs of damages and control. In addition, surveillance st...
Article
Full-text available
Remote real-time diagnostic tools may help to overcome the “taxonomic impediment” of dwindling and geographically fragmented taxonomic expertise. We trialled several remote real-time microscopy systems based on desktop videoconferencing or virtual research environments (VREs) using standardised performance tests and real diagnostic challenges. All...
Article
1. Some biosecurity systems aimed at reducing the impacts of invasive alien species that employ sentinel trapping systems to detect the presence of unwanted organisms. Once detected, the next challenge is to locate the source population of the invasive species. Tools that can direct search efforts towards the most likely sources of a trapped invasi...
Conference Paper
Clover root weevil was first discovered in the South Island in 2006. Since then its distribution has been monitored. Although not yet occurring throughout all the South Island it is widespread and has become common in many regions. The first releases of a biocontrol agent, the Irish ecotype of the parasitoid wasp Microctonus aethiopoides, were also...
Article
Clover root weevil was first discovered in the South Island in 2006. Since then its distribution has been monitored. Although not yet occurring throughout all the South Island, it is widespread and has become common in many regions. The first releases of a biocontrol agent, the Irish ecotype of the parasitoid wasp Microctonus aethiopoides, were als...
Article
A population model was derived for light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), subject to the sterile insect technique (SIT). The model was parameterized from the literature and from recent laboratory studies conducted in New Zealand and Australia. Relationships were fitted for several model parameters that var...
Chapter
Full-text available
PCR (polymerase chain reaction) analysis of gut contents can be used to determine what arthropods are feeding on in agroecosystems as DNA from the food ingested by an arthropod will be present in the gut for a certain amount of time before digestion takes place. Primers that are specific to certain plant or animal species can be used to detect DNA...
Article
One of the greatest challenges in eradicating pest species is determining when no further individuals remain: terminating the control programme too early means failure to eradicate, whereas continuing for too long can add considerable expense. Since monitoring tools are usually only qualitative and invariably imperfect, there may be considerable un...
Conference Paper
More invasive species than ever are extending their geographic and host plant ranges and impacts on horticultural production have included a destabilization of IPM programs through a return to broad-spectrum insecticides. An analysis of more than 300 officially sanctioned eradication programs targeting horticultural pests in 43 countries shows that...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Real-time remote diagnostic tools have the potential to change the way entomological specimens are examined and identified. We selected and trialled four internet-based video conferencing software systems for their applicability to real-time remote diagnostics. Trials were conducted using standardised tests for image resolution and latency, and rea...
Article
Full-text available
The Argentine stem weevil ( Listronotus bonariensis ) was an economically important pest in New Zealand pastures until the release of the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae . This contribution uses historical data to investigate the regulation of the pest populations prior to, and somewhat during, the establishment of this parasitoid in dryland Cante...
Article
Insect pheromone traps are becoming an increasingly important tool in biosecurity and pest surveillance, alerting managers to the presence of unwanted organisms. To expand the role of these traps beyond their present sentinel role, it is necessary to develop reliable operational models of local insect dispersal. Following the detection of an insect...
Article
Full-text available
• Climate change will have a direct effect on the location, nature and productivity of the pastures, crops, orchards and forests grown in the future in New Zealand. It is also changing the composition, distribution and phenology of the weeds and pests that compromise productivity and threaten the sustainability of both the productive and natural en...
Article
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A biosecurity response was triggered by the detection of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) at the Port of Auckland, New Zealand. Ae. albopictus does not occur in New Zealand and is the most significant mosquito threat to this country. The possibility that a founding population had established, resulted in a large-scale biosecurity surve...
Article
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There has been considerable debate on risks associated with biological control, and partly resulting from this, research has addressed a number of questions which have subsequently led to a greater understanding of risk assessment and biosafety. Controversy which arose in the 1980s about the environmental safety of biological control initially crea...
Article
Modern biological control practitioners must increasingly demonstrate a level of rigor that can only be achieved through use of effective methodological tools such as modeling, behavioral studies and molecular approaches. The use of these technologies is maturing rapidly in biological control and makes tangible contributions to its success. Behavio...
Article
Modelling moth dispersal in relation to wind direction and strength could greatly enhance the role of pheromone traps in biosecurity and pest management applications. Anemotaxis theory, which describes moth behaviour in the presence of a pheromone plume and is used as a framework for such models. Currently, however, that theory includes only three...
Article
Full-text available
Clover root weevil (CRW), a white clover pest from the Northern Hemisphere, was first found in the North Island in 1996. Its 2006 detection in the South Island coincided with an importation from Europe of a parasitic wasp for biocontrol of CRW. Upon detecting CRW in the South Island, we surveyed to identify suitable locations for biocontrol release...
Conference Paper
A basic remote diagnostic microscopy system consists of a computer connected externally to a web server, a monitor and a microscope with digital camera attached. Together with suitable software, this allows biological specimens to be viewed and diagnosed by remote experts in real time. This offers many benefits for researchers and practitioners of...
Article
Full-text available
Hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna), a bird-dispersed, introduced shrub, is becoming increasingly weedy in parts of New Zealand, North America, Australia and elsewhere. In order to identify areas threatened by this species, an eco-climatic model for its potential global distribution was constructed using CLIMEX software. The model was based on the native...
Article
Full-text available
We reconstructed the invasion of a non-native tree (hawthorn, Crataegus monogyna) into fire-induced grassland in montane South Island, New Zealand. Using the relationship between height and age to reconstruct the rate of increase of the population, we identified three distinct invasion phases. We hypothesised that these related to the abundance of...
Conference Paper
The potential distribution of Microctonus aethiopoides (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) in New Zealand Mark McNeill, Cor Vink, John Kean, Pip Gerard, Scott Hardwick Biosecurity Team, AgResearch, Private Bag 4749, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand Three species of the parasitoid wasp Microctonus have been successfully introduced to New Zealand as biologica...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Targeted surveillance of high risk invasion sites using insect traps is becoming an important tool in border biosecurity, aiding in early detection and subsequent monitoring of eradication attempts. The mark-release-recapture technique is widely used to study the dispersal of insects, and to generate unbiased estimates of population density. It may...
Article
We explore models for the management of invertebrate pests by enhancing the efficacy or local abundance of existing natural enemies. Different aspects of natural enemy biology had different effects on prey density. Enhancement of enemy search rate or prey conversion efficiency showed the greatest potential for reducing prey density, while maximum c...
Article
1 The accidental introduction of the Asian strain of gypsy moth (AGM) Lymantria dispar (L.) to New Zealand poses a major threat to New Zealand's forestry industry. To aid eradication and control decisions in the event of its establishment, a model was developed for the effect of nuclear polyhedrosis virus (NPV) as biological control for AGM in New...
Article
Full-text available
An evaluation of the Biocontrol Information Resource for ERMA New Zealand Applicants (BIREA, http://www.b3nz.org/birea) website was undertaken. BIREA aims to assist applicants to ERMA New Zealand wishing to introduce biocontrol agents to New Zealand to submit a well-developed and informed application. The website also has potential for educating ov...
Article
1 The sterile insect technique (SIT) involves the release of large numbers of sterile or partially-sterile insects into a wild pest population to dilute the number of successful wild matings, with the eventual aim of eradication or area-wide suppression. General population models, encompassing a wide range of SIT types, were used to derive principl...
Article
Summary • A possible explanation for low success rates when introducing natural enemies to new regions for biological control of insect pests is that they fail to adapt to their new conditions. Therefore it has been widely recommended that biological control practitioners increase the probability of local adaptation by maximizing the genetic variat...
Technical Report
The B3 project that produced this report was focused on reducing border biosecurity risks to NZ’s native flora and terrestrial natural ecosystems from non-indigenous pathogens and invertebrates. The report was prompted by a perception that, internationally, the development of general insights about biosecurity risks to natural and semi-natural habi...
Chapter
Full-text available
Biosecurity surveillance for early detection is currently constrained by inadequate risk prioritisation methods, the availability and efficacy of detection and response tools, and the availability of funding to sustain surveillance programmes. With current technologies, investments in targeted surveillance for early detection are worthwhile in only...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Introduction: The parasitoid Microctonus aethiopoides Loan (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was introduced into New Zealand in 1982 to control the lucerne pest, Sitona discoideus Gyllenhal (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Previous studies have shown that a number of non-target weevil species are attacked in the field by this parasitoid. A field study was carr...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Introduction: A web-based information resource http://www.b3nz.org/birea/ has been developed by researchers in New Zealand to assist biological control researchers and practitioners planning to prepare an application to ERMA New Zealand to bring a new biological control agent into New Zealand.The aim of the website is to help foster safe biological...
Article
Full-text available
Sitona lepidus had spread throughout the North Island of New Zealand by 2005, and was first detected in the South Island in January 2006 when one individual was found at Harewood, Christchurch. Intensive sampling during February 2006 recovered only two additional specimens. Several specimens were recovered from a separate Christchurch location in A...
Article
Full-text available
A cohort-based model for the seasonal phenology of the black-headed strain of the fall webworm, Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae), was constructed from published development rates for each life stage. Model predictions were successfully verified against field observations from Japan, China, Italy, Serbia and the USA. The model was then used...
Article
Full-text available
Currently there are some 187 plant species, almost all exotic in origin, occurring as “weeds” in pastures in New Zealand. Judging from their occurrence in scientific papers published in the proceedings of the New Zealand Plant Protection Society, 65 of these species are, or have been considered historically, to be significant pastoral weeds. While...
Article
Currently there are some 187 plant species, almost all exotic in origin, occurring as "weeds" in pastures in New Zealand. Judging from their occurrence in scientific papers published in the proceedings of the New Zealand Plant Protection Society, 65 of these species are, or have been considered historically, to be significant pastoral weeds. While...