John Hoven- Ph.D.
- fast feedback operations / operational qualitative analysis at independent
John Hoven
- Ph.D.
- fast feedback operations / operational qualitative analysis at independent
About
18
Publications
25,561
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51
Citations
Introduction
Current institution
independent
Current position
- fast feedback operations / operational qualitative analysis
Additional affiliations
December 2014 - February 2016
self
Position
- proponent of fast feedback operations / operational qualitative analysis
November 2014 - February 2016
independent
Position
- fast feedback operations / operational qualitative analysis
Publications
Publications (18)
Peacebuilding Paradigms focuses on how seven paradigms from the Comparative Politics, International Relations, and Policy Analysis subfields - Realism, Liberalism, Constructivism, Cosmopolitanism, Critical Theories, Locality, and Policy - analyze peacebuilding. The contributors explore the arguments of each paradigm, and then compare and contrast t...
The bridge-building in this paper is a proposed collaboration between intelligence analysts and peacebuilding-development-humanitarian aid NGOs. The goal is to investigate and act on human interactions in a specific context: Everyday example: party planning Work-related example: What supports conflict or stability in this village? Projects like thi...
Practitioner communities for peacebuilding, governance, and private sector development in conflict affected areas (PSD in CAE) recognize that they need to understand dynamic local contexts, and they are beginning to discover how to do that. The aim of this paper is to articulate a user-friendly visual framework of analysis ("theory of change") that...
Qualitative methods and Special Operations Forces share two extraordinary capabilities: (a) fast-feedback learning for ill-defined problems with unknown unknowns, and (b) testing cause-and-effect hypotheses in one-of-a-kind situations (sample size = 1). Both of these are domains in which human analysis outperforms computers.
Business schools do context-specific social science for an operational purpose. This has remained oddly undiscovered by the US military and intelligence community: at annual conferences of the Minerva Initiative (the Department of Defense program for funding social science research), nobody in the room is from a business school.
Everyday problems in the real world are not random draws from a validated model. They are unique, ill-defined messes that reflect the astonishing nuances in ordinary human behavior. For these one-of-a-kind situations, evidence-based decisionmaking requires proof of cause-and-effect in a sample size of one. That is not as hard as it sounds. It’s lik...
Locally focused peacebuilding and stability operations need fast, in-depth understanding of an operational context where unknown unknowns are important. Qualitative interviewing and causal inference methods do that in depth. Lean Startup product innovation does it fast. We use both. Our goal is to provide this capability to soldiers at the lowest l...
Locally focused peacebuilding and stability operations need fast, in-depth understanding of an operational context where unknown unknowns are important. Qualitative interviewing and causal inference methods do that in depth. Lean Startup product innovation does it fast. We use both. Our goal is to provide this capability to soldiers at the lowest l...
Qualitative analysis has two extraordinary capabilities: first, finding answers to questions we are too clueless to ask; and second, causal inference – hypothesis testing and assessment – within a single unique context (sample size of one). These capabilities are broadly useful, and they are critically important in village-level civil-military oper...
Everywhere we have a military presence, unknown unknowns are sources of instability and stability. Human relationships of all kinds – between individuals, between groups – are so nuanced and varied that understanding them requires a purposeful search for unknown unknowns. Our project goal is to empower conventional Soldiers at the lowest levels to...
The capability gap: fast learning in one-of-a-kind situations (sample size of one) where unknown unknowns are likely to be present and important. These situations are not rare: ordinary human relationships are so nuanced that unknown unknowns are commonplace, and important. Analytically, the right tool for the job is Operational Qualitative Analysi...
Qualitative analysis has two extraordinary capabilities: first, finding answers to questions we are too clueless to ask; and second, causal inference – hypothesis testing and assessment – within a single unique context (sample size of one). These capabilities are broadly useful, and they are critically important in village-level civil-military oper...
The use of qualitative analysis within the Army intelligence community can help remedy certain
capability gaps in obtaining locally nuanced information. Reliance on quantitative driven surveys and
methods such as PMESII-PT (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, Information, Physical
Environment, and Time) and ASCOPE (Area, Structur...
Here is a math problem you can solve easily: A man sold 230 balloons at a fun fair in the morning. He sold another 86 balloons in the evening. How many balloons did he sell in all? And here is one you can't: Lauren spent 20 percent of her money on a dress. She spent 2/5 of the remainder on a book. She had $72 left. How much money did she have at fi...
40 states and the District of Columbia have laws that authorize public charter schools to provide public education with public funds, in competition with regular public schools. However, many of these laws contain provisions that have hardly any rationale except to restrain competition, especially: (a) explicit caps on the number of charter schools...
This study compared performance of seniors at 21 Montgomery County (Maryland) high schools on the Advanced Placement (AP) Tests. The schools were ranked by the percentage of college-educated adults within the school boundaries, and the ranking was compared to Advanced Placement test results (the average number of students, per 100 seniors, who scor...
Typescript. Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1980. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 151-153).
Questions
Question (1)
My project goal is to develop a methodology that enables minimally skilled people – e.g., lower-level employees who have direct contact with customers, suppliers, and problems – to do qualitative interviewing and causal inference well enough to understand a situation and act on it. My focus is civil-military operations, but the same situation arises in locally focused economic development and in commercial markets. The attachment provides a brief overview of my particular focus of interest, but I'm seeking guidance from any setting.
