John Hey

University of York · Department of Economics and Related Studies

Different people think in different ways, and their behaviour can be analysed in different ways. In this paper, we analyse the correlation between the type of behaviour and the time taken to reach a decision in a dynamic context and under ambiguity with different monetary incentives, linking the results with fast and slow thinking processes. Four d...

This paper builds on the data from a published paper on behaviour under ambiguity (Conte & Hey, 2013)—henceforth C&H—to explore the determinants of decision time. C&H categorized individual subjects as being of one of four types (of decision-maker)—Expected Utility, Smooth Ambiguity, Rank Dependent and Alpha Expected Utility—by using the decisions...

This paper experimentally investigates the potential existence of dynamically inconsistent individuals in a situation of ambiguity. The experiment involves participants making two sequential decisions concerning the allocation of a sum of money, with an ambiguous move by Nature occurring after first decision, and again after the second. We conducte...

This paper reports an experiment designed to elicit social preferences over income compensation schemes, where income differences between subjects have two independent components: one due to chosen effort and the other due to random chance. These differences can be compensated through social dividends, according to principles chosen beforehand by s...

This paper reports an experiment designed to elicit social preferences over income compensation schemes, where income differences between subjects have two independent components: one due to chosen effort and the other due to random chance. These differences can be compensated through social dividends, according to principles chosen beforehand by s...

This paper reports an experiment designed to elicit social preferences over income compensation schemes, where income differences between subjects have two independent components: one due to chosen effort and the other due to random chance. These differences can be compensated through social dividends, according to principles chosen beforehand by s...

The Lucas tree model [Lucas RE Jr (1978) Asset prices in an exchange economy. Econometrica 46(6):1429–1445.] lies at the heart of modern macrofinance. At its core, it provides an analysis of the equilibrium price of a long-lived asset in an exchange economy where consumption is the objective and the sole purpose of the asset is to smooth consumptio...

When people take decisions under risk, it is not only the expected utility that is important, but also the shape of the distribution of utility: clearly the dispersion is important, but also the skewness. For given mean and dispersion, decision-makers treat positively and negatively skewed prospects differently. This paper presents a new behavioura...

This is the appendix B for the paper published in Journal of Economic Surveys, it is a standalone extensive review of the studies focusing on the performance of stochastic specifications added to deterministic decision theories.

We report on an experimental investigation of the emergence of Spontaneous Order, the idea that societies can co-ordinate, without government intervention, on a form of society that is good for its citizens, as described by Adam Smith. Our experimental design is based on a production game with a convex input provision possibility frontier, where su...

The term ‘preference imprecision’ seems to have different meanings to different people. In the literature, one can find references to a number of expressions. For example: vagueness, incompleteness, randomness, unsureness, indecisiveness and thick indifference curves. Some of these are theoretical constructs, some are empirical. The purpose of this...

When people take decisions under risk, it is not only the expected utility that is important, but also the shape of the distribution of utility: clearly the dispersion is important, but also the skewness. For given mean and dispersion, decision-makers treat positively and negatively skewed prospects differently. This paper presents a new behavioura...

When people take decisions under risk, it is not only the expected utility that is important, but also the shape of the distribution of utility: clearly the dispersion is important, but also the skewness. For given mean and dispersion, decision-makers treat positively and negatively skewed prospects differently. This paper presents a new behavioura...

This paper is about satisficing behaviour. Rather tautologically, this is when decision-makers are satisfied with achieving some objective, rather than in obtaining the best outcome. The term was coined by Simon (Q J Econ 69:99–118, 1955), and has stimulated many discussions and theories. Prominent amongst these theories are models of incomplete pr...

The experiment was programmed using the Z-tree software of Urs Fischbacher (1999). It was piloted at the laboratory of ESSE at the University of Bari, and the main experiment was run at the laboratory of EXEC at the University of York. Significant changes were made between the pilot and the main experiment in the way subjects were briefed. At York...

This article presents a new model for decision-making under risk, which provides an explanation for empirically-observed preference reversals. Central to the theory is the incorporation of probability perception imprecision, which arises because of individuals’ vague understanding of numerical probabilities. We combine this concept with the use of...

This chapter is concerned with the empirical exploration and experimental investigation of the numerous theories of decision making under uncertainty proposed in the earlier chapters of this handbook. This chapter begins with static theories of behavior under risk; then we look at dynamic theories under risk; and finally look at decision making und...

This is an account of my work on experimental economics over the years.

This paper identifies, and tests experimentally, a prediction of the Nash bargaining axioms that may appear counterintuitive. The context is a simple bargaining problem in which two players have to agree a choice from three alternatives. One alternative favours one player and a second favours the other. The third is an apparently reasonable comprom...

The random lottery incentive (RLI) mechanism (which involves subjects taking many decisions, only a randomly chosen one of which determines the payment to the subject) is widely used in many experiments, and hence its validity is of crucial importance to the inferences that can be drawn from the experiment. Its validity has been investigated in two...

Two recent papers, Harless and Camerer(1994) and Hey and Orme(1994) were both addressed to the same question: which is the 'best' theory of decision making under risk? The two papers shared a common concern: the appropriate trade-off between the descriptive accuracy of a theory and the predictive parsimony of that theory. In other respects, however...

The recent spate of theoretical models of behaviour under ambiguity can be partitioned into two sets: those involving multiple priors (in which the probabilities of the various events are not known but probabilities can be attached to the various possible values for the probabilities) and those not involving multiple priors. This paper concentrates...

A constitution is a collection of principles or axioms determining how society should be organized and a description of the ordering of the axioms in terms of their importance and invocation. We report on an exploratory experiment aimed at discovering preferred axioms relating to the distribution of income within society. Unlike most previous exper...

Representing ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower (which is transparent and not manipulable) and asking the subjects a series of allocation questions (which are more efficient than pairwise choice questions), we obtain data from which we can estimate by maximum likelihood methods (with explicit assumptions about the errors made by the s...

This paper is concerned with estimating preference functionals for choice under risk from the choice behaviour of individuals. We note that there is heterogeneity in behaviour between individuals and within individuals. By 'heterogeneity between individuals' we mean that people are different, in terms of both their preference functionals and their...

Potentially dynamically-inconsistent individuals create particular problems for economics, as their behaviour depends upon whether and how they attempt to resolve their potential inconsistency. This paper reports on the results of a new experiment designed to help us distinguish between the different types that may exist. We classify people into fo...

We offer a translation into English of the original French version published in 1777 of Buffon’s Essai d’Arithmetique Morale. In this classic work, Buffon discusses degrees of certainty, probability, the moral value of money, the different evaluations of gains and of losses; moreover, he proposes repeated experiments to determine the moral value of...

This paper tests experimentally, in a common value setting, the equivalence between the Japanese English auction (or clock auction) and an oral outcry auction where bidders are allowed to call their own bids. We find that (i) bidding behaviour is different in each type of auction, but also that (ii) this difference in bidding behaviour does not aff...

This paper asks whether it is possible to design an Intentions Revealing Experiment – that is, an experiment in which the early moves of the decision maker in a dynamic decision problem reveal the intentions of that decision maker regarding later moves in the decision problem. If such a type of experiment is possible, then it will enable economists...

Jekyll and Hyde were in fact two people inside the same person - an obviously dynamically-inconsistent person. In the book and in the movie, the dynamic inconsistency was resolved in a rather dramatic way. We investigate its resolution in the laboratory.

We offer a translation into English of the original French version published in 1777 of Buffon's Essai d'Arithmetique Morale along with some introductory remarks. In this classic work, Buffon discusses degrees of certainty, probability, the moral value of money, the different evaluations of gains and of losses; moreover, he proposes repeated experi...

In the context of eliciting preferences for decision making under risk, we ask the question: "which might be the 'best' method for eliciting such preferences?". It is well known that different methods differ in terms of the bias in the elicitation; it is rather less well-known that different methods differ in terms of their noisiness. The optimal t...

This paper experimentally studies the extraction decisions of a sole owner in a fishery, the population dynamics of which behave according to the standard deterministic logistic growth model. Four treatments were implemented which differed in the level of information supplied to the subjects. Compared to the theoretic benchmark, the data reveal tha...

We report the results of an experimental investigation of a key axiom of economic theories of dynamic decision making—namely, that agents plan. Inferences from previous investigations have been confounded with issues concerning the preference functionals of the agents. Here, we present an innovative experimental design which is driven purely by dom...

Dynamically inconsistent decision makers have to decide, implicitly or explicitly, what to do about their dynamic inconsistency. Economic theorists have identified three possible responses – to act naively (thus ignoring the dynamic inconsistency), to act resolutely (not letting their inconsistency affect their behaviour) or to act sophisticatedly...

Numerous prior experimental studies have attempted to elicit people's preferences over income distributions through appropriately incentivated questions asking subjects to choose between distributions. Instead, we follow the theoretical literature and start with the principles underlying these preferences. Such principles include, for example, the...

Numerous prior experimental studies have attempted to elicit people’s preferences over income distributions through appropriately incentivated questions asking subjects to choose between distributions. Instead, we follow the theoretical literature and start with the principles underlying these preferences. Such principles include, for example, the...

The main result of this paper is that the classic "marginal cost equals price " condition for the output of the perfectly competitive firm in a one-period certain world carries over to a many-period uncertain world if the firm is allowed to hold inventories and if there exists a forward market for the firm's product. This implies the separation of...

This paper reports on the results of absolute and comparative tests, using experimentally-generated data involving 200 subjects and the expenditure of some 1,500 British pounds, of the economic theory of search behavior (built on Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT) foundations). It is found that the theory fail s the absolute tests, but passe...

Uncertainty and Information Modeling.- Revealed Ambiguity and Its Consequences: Updating.- Dynamic Decision Making When Risk Perception Depends on Past Experience.- Representation of Conditional Preferences Under Uncertainty.- Subjective Information in Decision Making and Communication.- Risk Modeling.- Sensitivity Analysis in Decision Making: A Co...

Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effect...

We report on an experiment which enables us to infer how far people plan ahead when taking decisions in a dynamic risky context. Just over half of the subjects plan fully, while the rest do not plan ahead at all.

In econometric investigations of consumption, the econometrician may either estimate the structural relationship or investigate the implication (revealed by Hall) that the marginal utility of consumption follows a random walk. Researchers have been inhibited from following the former route by the lack of an explicit theoretical relationship. This p...

Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effect...

There is a large theoretical literature in both economics and psychology on decision making under ambiguity (as distinct from risk) and many preference functionals proposed in this literature for describing behaviour in such contexts. However, the empirical literature is scarce and largely confined to testing between various proposed functionals. U...

This paper identifies, and tests experimentally, a prediction of Nash Bargaining Theory that may appear counterintuitive. The context is a simple bargaining problem in which two players have to agree a choice from three alternatives. One alternative favours one player and a second favours the other. The third is an apparently reasonable compromise,...

This paper reports the results of an experimental investigation into people's evaluations of choice problems that are strategically equivalent, but differ in respect of their temporal framings. We elicit individual valuations for three strategically equivalent choice problems, which differ in terms of their framing and the timing of the decision. T...

In many experiments, particularly individual choice experiments, experimenters ask many questions to the subjects and use the random lottery incentive mechanism to give an incentive to the subjects. That is, the experimenter, at the end of the experiment, picks just one of the questions, plays out that question, and pays the subject on the basis of...

Most people learn to drive without knowing how the engine works. In a similar vein, the author believes that students can learn economics without knowing the algebra and calculus underlying the results. If instructors follow the philosophy of other economics courses in using graphs to illustrate the results, and draw the graphs accurately, then the...

This paper makes a modest contribution to investigating whether people, when tackling dynamic decision problems, formulate plans and then implement them. Assumed behaviour of this form is central to many theories of economic decision-making, yet much direct empirical evidence (from economists and particularly from psychologists) suggests that it ha...

There is an odd contradiction about much of the empirical (experimental) literature: The data is analysed using statistical tools which presuppose that there is some noise or randomness in the data, but the source and possible nature of the noise are rarely explicitly discussed. This paper argues that the noise should be brought out into the open,...

In many experiments, experimenters use the random lottery incentive mechanism and ask many questions to each subject. That is, at the end of the experiment, just one of the questions is picked at random, and the subject paid on the basis of their answer to this one question. The idea is that subjects should separate the various questions and reply...

A dynamic decision making experiment recently conducted on individuals suggested that people may look ahead but seem either unable or unwilling to predict their own future behaviour. In order to distinguish between these two possibilities, we repeated the experiment with pairs of individuals. The experiment consisted of two decision nodes (interlea...

This paper reports on an experiment that investigates the apparently robust phenomenon of over-sensitivity of consumption to current income. Using a particularly simple formulation, we also investigate whether individuals correctly respond to their employment status. We find that subjects over-react. Our data enables us to investigate where this ov...

This paper investigates experimentally a market inspired by two strands of literature: on herd behaviour in non-market situations, and on the aggregation of private information in markets. The first strand suggests that socially undesirable herd behaviour may result when information is private; the second suggests that in a market context the price...

This paper reports on an experiment designed to test whether pairs of individuals are able to exploit ex ante efficiency gains in the sharing of a risky financial prospect. Observations from a previous experiment had suggested a general rejection of efficiency in favour of ex post equality. The present experiment explores some possible explanations...

This paper investigates whether some part of the preference reversal phenomenon can be attributed to errors in the responses of subjects in experiments. Such errors have been well documented in other investigations of behaviour in risky decision problems, but their relevance to the preference reversal phenomenon has not been explored. Building on e...

A crucial basic assumption of economic theories of dynamic behaviour is that people plan ahead. This paper reports on an extremely simple experimental test of this fundamental principle. Indeed the experiment is so simple and so straightforward that it is difficult to believe that anyone would not plan ahead. However subjects are found who do not....

Timing-independence implies that individuals are indifferent between a sequential choice problem and a planned choice problem which are strategically equivalent except for the timing of resolution of the uncertainty. This paper reports an experiment in which we investigate whether the timing of resolution of the uncertainty affects individual prefe...

Following a brief review of the main experimental work into the economics of risk and uncertainty, both static and dynamic, this paper reports the results of an experiment testing one of the key assumptions of the theory of dynamic economic behaviour—that people have a plan and implement it. Using a unique design which enables the plan (if one exis...

Following a brief review of the main experimental work into the economics of risk and uncertainty, both static and dynamic, this paper reports the results of an experiment testing one of the key assumptions of the theory of dynamic economic behaviour—that people have a plan and implement it. Using a unique design which enables the plan (if one exis...

Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effect...

Much experimental effort has been expended in attempts to establish the relative superiority of Expected Utility theory and the many recently-developed alternatives as descriptions of the behaviour of subjects in risky choice decision problems. The cumulative evidence shows clearly that there is a great deal of noise in the experimental data, which...

This paper reports on an experimental test of the Principle of Optimality in dynamic decision problems. This Principle, which states that the decision-maker should always choose the optimal decision at each stage of the decision problem, conditional on behaving optimally thereafter, underlies many theories of optimal dynamic decision making, but is...

Two recent papers, Harless and Camerer (1994) and Hey and Orme (1994) are both addressed to the same question: which is the "best" theory of decision making under risk? As an essential part of their separate approaches to an answer to this question, both sets of authors had to make an assumption about the underlying stochastic nature of their data....

We carry out two experiments to test a model of herd behaviour based on the work of Banerjee (Quarterly Journal of Economics, CVII, 797–817, 1992). He shows that herding occurs as a result of people observing the actions of others and using this information in their own decision rule. In our experiments herding does not occur as frequently as Ban...