John Harvey

John Harvey
Texas Christian University | TCU · Department of Economics

PhD Economics, University of Tennessee

About

66
Publications
47,095
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648
Citations
Citations since 2017
16 Research Items
232 Citations
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Introduction
Hello, friends! I have tried to upload as many full texts as possible. When I didn't have the original files any more, I converted the published versions from pdf to Word, changed a few things here and there, and then converted back to pdf. However, not everything always survived (especially equations and tables). Thus, if you'd like a better copy, please just contact me directly and I'll send you one. Thanks for reading! John
Additional affiliations
August 1987 - present
Texas Christian University
Position
  • Professor

Publications

Publications (66)
Chapter
Full-text available
Chapter for Naval War College volume on "lessons not learned."
Chapter
Among the many dire warnings from opponents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is that MMT-inspired policies will cause the value of the domestic currency to collapse. However, as is the case with so many other attacks on MMT, this argument is based on economic models that do not reflect the realities of the world in which we live. In particular, it c...
Article
Full-text available
In Keynes' model, no variety of private sector spending plays a more critical role than investment. This is so because reaching full employment requires that it be large enough to offset the volume of saving that would be forthcoming at that level of economic activity, which occurs only rarely and by coincidence. Despite its key role, very few Post...
Chapter
Full-text available
Chapter on the effect on MMT on currency values (spoiler: it doesn't cause a catastrophic collapse!). Written for a general audience.
Preprint
This paper builds a dynamic (and NOT general equilibrium!) Keynes/Kalecki/Minsky-style macro simulation in Excel for use in Intermediate Macroeconomics. It is set in time, it is capable of creating a business cycle, it demonstrates the effect of fundamental uncertainty in creating volatile forecast adjustments, it includes debt and the possibility...
Data
These are the Excel simulations described in "Post Keynesian Modeling and Simulation for the Classroom:" https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333204113_Post_Keynesian_Modeling_and_Simulation_for_the_Classroom
Article
There already exist Post Keynesian alternatives to neoclassical trade and exchange rate theories. That focusing on the former explains the direction of trade as a function of absolute advantage, which is, in turn, driven by cost and technological differences. There is no automatic force causing these differences to diminish over time meaning that—u...
Article
Full-text available
Post Keynesians should not be afraid to teach what they believe represents the best explanation of macroeconomic fluctuations. Our colleagues in the mainstream certainly are not and, realistically speaking, it is hard to imagine that any student would be handicapped by not having had a full dose of IS-LM, the accelerationist hypothesis, Phillips Cu...
Article
Full-text available
One would have thought that the financial crisis would have served as a decisive empirical test, separating the wheat from the chaff. Instead, very few schools of thought have shifted their positions. Part of the reason is no doubt because, as Einstein once said, theory determines what we see (Salam 1990, p. 99). To illustrate this point while at t...
Article
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Post Keynesian economics is based on the economics of John Maynard Keynes. Unlike Keynesianism, it does not rely on rigidities or imperfections to explain less-than-full employment, a condition that they argue is the rule rather than the exception. One key implication of this is that Post Keynesians do not view economics as being the science of sca...
Article
Full-text available
Paul Davidson's intermediate macroeconomics textbook, Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory: A Foundation for Successful Economic Policies for the Twenty-First Century, serves as an excellent introduction to the economics of Keynes. It opens with a rejection of Say's law, then works its way through the determinants and effects of consumption, investm...
Article
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Despite its professed emphasis on the real world, the post Keynesian literature lacks a history of business cycle fluctuations in a particular economy. This is an extremely important oversight. Not only might such a study be useful to researchers, but students are anxious to acquire practical as well as theoretical knowledge and to see historical a...
Article
Full-text available
One of the core premises of post Keynesianism is that a proper understanding of the macroeconomy demands a dynamic analysis set in historical time. The default tool of mainstream economics, the general equilibrium framework, cannot possibly capture such a world. The goal of this paper is to suggest an alternative that allows for path-dependent, hol...
Article
Full-text available
This paper offers a post-Keynesian/institutionalist explanation of the dollar-euro exchange rate around and during the Great Recession. It is shown that, consistent with theory, the financial sector played a dominant role. Capital flows drove foreign exchange rates, causing both mis-determination and tremendous volatility, and the real economy was...
Article
Full-text available
Curiously and in spite of its name, very few business cycle theories actually treat it as a cycle. Mainstream economists, for example, model all macroeconomic fluctuations as a function of exogenous forces. In their view, the economy remains at full employment indefinitely unless impacted by some external event. Post Keynesian economists disagree s...
Article
Full-text available
A university education should enable and improve students' cognitive abilities. An effective curriculum can help achieve this objective. Teaching that economics is more than just neoclassicism, for example, could aid the transition to higher stages of cognition. That said, even erstwhile supporters are sometimes reluctant to take this step for fear...
Article
Full-text available
John Maynard Keynes argued that crises were systemic and that, unless serious reforms were implemented, they would tend to grow in frequency and severity. The paper sets out to build a Keynes-style model of crises that captures both the unique characteristics of each type and their common roots. A schematic method is employed that traces the proces...
Article
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Over the past 25 years, a variety of Neoliberal reforms were introduced. Instead of growth, stability, and the narrowing of income gaps, however, we have seen stagnation, volatility, and increased inequality. The paper examines the theory that justified these policies, describes an alternative approach, and takes a brief look at a small group of La...
Article
Full-text available
Today, we are in the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Recovery has not been swift, and policymakers and citizens throughout the globe have turned to economists for answers. While in the mainstream, the general opinion is that the collapse was unpredictable and caused by exogenous events (i.e., poor policy decisions), t...
Article
Full-text available
That the economy goes through periods of expansion and recession is obvious. Whether or not this represents endogenously-generated cycles or simply stochastic variation around a trend is, however, a matter of debate. Among mainstream economists, the latter is the predominant position. For Post Keynesians, however, business cycles are a manifestatio...
Article
Full-text available
Curiously and in spite of its name, very few business cycle theories actually treat it as a cycle. Mainstream economics, for example, models all macroeconomic fluctuations as a function of exogenous forces. In their view, the economy remains at full employment indefinitely unless impacted by some external event. Post Keynesian economists disagree s...
Article
Full-text available
It is well accepted among Institutionalist and Post Keynesian scholars that portfolio investment markets are driven by agents' expectations rather than "the fundamentals." This explains, it is argued, why asset and currency prices are so much more volatile than and often clearly out of line with what we would otherwise consider to be their underlyi...
Book
Breaking from conventional wisdom, this book provides an explanation of exchange rates based on the premise that it is financial capital flows and not international trade that represents the driving force behind currency movements. John T. Harvey combines analyses rooted in the scholarly traditions of John Maynard Keynes and Thorstein Veblen with t...
Article
Full-text available
The goal of this paper is to provide a model and method for those wishing to include the Post Keynesian perspective when teaching exchange rate theory. It begins by reviewing neoclassical approaches (purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and the Dornbusch model) and then develops a graphical Post Keynesian model that is based on Keynes's Z-D...
Article
Full-text available
The purpose of this paper is to show the superiority of Keynes’ approach by comparing three system dynamics models of the relationship among interest and exchange rates: one based on traditional uncovered interest rate parity, one with risk, and one with forecast confidence. It will be demonstrated that only the last produces patterns consistent wi...
Article
Full-text available
Neoclassical economists have, by their own admission, had a terrible time explaining foreign- currency prices. Not only have they been unable to develop models that explain the past time series of foreign exchange rates with any regularity but their premises lead to conclusions about the character of the market that are inconsistent with many of it...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, a series of empirical tests are conducted comparing the explanatory power of the neoclassical approach (in particular, purchasing power parity and the monetary model) with that of a long-run exchange rate model based on Post Keynesian premises (the tests use annual data for the dollar- deutsche mark and the dollar-yen from 1975 throu...
Article
Full-text available
This paper builds a system-dynamics model of the Mexican economy and tests several propositions regarding policy and income inequality. It concludes, among other things, that one of the most significant developments over the past twenty years has been the declining wage paid to those in the manufacturing export sector. As a consequence, policies ai...
Article
Full-text available
Finding satisfactory explanations of deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) has proved to be a frustrating experience for Neoclassical economists. Studies have focused on the role of risk, but thus far no one has been able to put forward a source thereof that can account for the specific pattern of deviations from UIRP. This paper of...
Article
This article is the winner of the Real Estate Finance manuscript prize (sponsored by the Fannie Mae Foundation) presented at the 2002 American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting. In 1995, Mexico introduced a price-level-adjusting unit of account called the Unidad de Inversion (UDI). Loans denominated in UDIs maintain their purchasing power and prov...
Article
Full-text available
Empirical studies using surveys of exchange rate expectations have become very popular in the literature. The majority have concluded that short-term currency market activity appears to be inconsistent with the standard neoclassical characterization and that, as a consequence, economists should shift their attention to the long run. This paper, rat...
Article
Full-text available
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the usefulness of Keynes' approach by modeling it using system dynamics. As this technique allows the researcher to place the analysis in time it is especially well suited to the task. It also allows us to see exactly which elements seem to create the characteristic shape of the business cycle and crisis.
Article
Full-text available
With the end of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s, the market for foreign cur-rency grew rapidly in both size and instability. The liberalization of capital flows that followed the adoption of floating exchange rates brought vastly larger flows of capital between nations. Though reliable market-specific data are difficult to find, if the explosion o...
Article
Increasingly, the foreign exchange market has become a focus for pecuniary pursuits at the expense of trade and direct investment. Two of the side effects of the increased use of exchange market operations for pecuniary gain have been rate volatility and chronic payments imbalances. While it is fairly clear that the problems of today have their roo...
Article
This article discusses the nature of macroeconomic interdependence in the world economy and questions whether traditional Neoclassical solutions can avoid the associated problems. It further argues that those problems are really manifestations of the problems with typical government macropolicies. The article includes a brief discussion of the Post...
Article
Full-text available
The volume of literature produced by economists on the subject of foreign exchange rates is massive. Unfortunately, this work yields few broad-based conclusions about the operation of tbe foreign exchange market. Theories abound that purport to explain rate movements in terms of the monetary or portfolio models, or in the context of "news" or ratio...
Article
Full-text available
Article
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Tennessee, Knoxville, 1987. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves [105]-112).

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Projects (8)
Project
I have created an Excel simulation of the macroeconomy (based on the economics of Keynes, Kalecki, Minsky, and friends) for use in Intermediate Macro. I am currently working on writing it up and tidying the simulation (while avoiding the temptation to add new sectors!). The current version of the course assignment is here: http://personal.tcu.edu/jharvey/30233/ExcelBusinessCycle.pdf
Project
This is a draft chapter for a forthcoming volume by Bruno Bonizzi, Annina Kaltenbrunner, and Raquel Ramos. I chose to focus on something a bit different from where I had gone before, i.e., the deep-seated differences in Neoclassical and Post Keynesian exchange rate research that go much deeper than which variables we select and how we measure them. The real (unspoken) differences are related to their relative emphasis on deduction vs induction, the nature of agent decision making, and each approach's conception of what markets are.
Project
After participating in the economics and cyber security workshop at the Naval War College in December 2016, I decided to try my hand at writing on cyber security, per se. This piece looks at issues in the financial sector and, I hope, does a better job at the economics than most I've read. It is currently under review at Military Cyber Affairs.