John P. Fay

John P. Fay
Duke University | DU · Nicholas School of the Environment

M.S., B.A

About

26
Publications
10,527
Reads
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4,571
Citations
Additional affiliations
August 2005 - present
Duke University
Position
  • Instructor
August 1997 - August 2005
Stanford University
Position
  • Research Associate
August 1992 - August 1997
University of Michigan
Position
  • Instructor

Publications

Publications (26)
Article
Objective: To understand the distribution of healthy and unhealthy food stores near historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs). Participants and methods: Using ArcGIS Pro's network analysis tools and ReferenceUSA database, this study characterized the healthy (favorable) and unhealthy (unfavorable) retail food stores within a 5-mile radi...
Article
Full-text available
The persistence of freshwater degradation has necessitated the growth of an expansive stream and wetland restoration industry, yet restoration prioritization at broad spatial extents is still limited and ad-hoc restoration prevails. The River Basin Restoration Prioritization tool has been developed to incorporate vetted, distributed data models int...
Article
Surface coal mining is the dominant form of land cover change in Central Appalachia, yet the extent to which surface coal mine runoff is polluting regional rivers is currently unknown. We mapped surface mining from 1976 to 2005 for a 19,581 km(2) area of southern West Virginia and linked these maps with water quality and biological data for 223 str...
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods Mountaintop mining is now the dominant driver of land-use change in the Central Appalachians. Over the last decade, an estimated 2000km of streams in this region have been buried beneath the excess rock waste generated from surface coal mining. In addition to the streams permanently lost through valley filling, many mo...
Article
A software library for quantifying nitrogen fate and transport at the regional-scale is presented as a tool for managing river basin systems. The tool is based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model and implements the prediction portion of SPARROW to quantify overland an...
Article
Despite unprecedented worldwide biodiversity loss, conservation is not at the forefront of national or international development programs. The concept of ecosystem services was intended to help conservationists demonstrate the benefits of ecosystems for human well-being, but services are not yet seen to truly address human need with current approac...
Article
Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of...
Article
We provide an overview of how nestedness analyses of presence/absence data might direct conservation and land-use planning in developing landscapes. We describe two nestedness statistics, the percent of perfect nestedness (%PN) and the relative nestedness index C, which statistically and directly test whether assemblages of organisms are nested by...
Article
1. The causes of lagged population and geographical range expansions after species introductions are poorly understood, and there are relatively few detailed case studies. 2. We document the 29-year history of population dynamics and structure for a population of Euphydryas gillettii Barnes that was introduced to the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA i...
Article
Full-text available
Habitat loss is a critical threat to tropical biodiversity and its quantification constitutes a central conservation issue. Typically, assessments have been based on deforestation rates statistics. However, this overlooks the effects brought about by the spatial reconfiguration of the remaining habitat: fragmentation. We present an analysis of frag...
Article
: Values of species richness are used widely to establish conservation and management priorities. Because inventory data, money, and time are limited, use of surrogates such as “indicator” species to estimate species richness has become common. Identifying sets of indicator species that might reliably predict species richness, especially across tax...
Article
Full-text available
We present a global conservation analysis for an entire “flagship” taxon, land mammals. A combination of rarity, anthropogenic impacts, and political endemism has put about a quarter of terrestrial mammal species, and a larger fraction of their populations, at risk of extinction. A new global database and complementarity analysis for selecting prio...
Article
Full-text available
Managing ecosystem services is critical to human survival, yet we do not know how large natural areas must be to support these services. We investigated how crop pollination services provided by native, unmanaged, bee communities varied on organic and conventional farms situated along a gradient of isolation from natural habitat. Pollination servic...
Article
Full-text available
The ability to predict spatial patterns of species richness using a few easily measured environmental variables would facilitate timely evaluation of potential impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Two common hypotheses maintain that faunal species richness can be explained in part by either loca...
Article
Ecologists often seek to predict species distributions as functions of abiotic environmental variables. Statistical models are useful for making predictions about the occurrence of species based on variables derived from remote sensing or geographic information systems. We previously used 14 topographically based environmental variables from 49 loc...
Article
If species richness can be modelled as a function of easily quantified environmental variables, the scientific foundation for land-use planning will be strengthened. We used Poisson regression to develop a predictive model of species richness of resident butterflies in the central Great Basin of western North America. Species inventory data and val...
Article
Full-text available
The many opportunities for mitigating atmospheric carbon emissions in developing countries include reforesting degraded lands, implementing sustainable agricultural practices on existing lands and slowing tropical deforestation. This analysis shows that over the next 10 years, 48 major tropical and subtropical developing countries have the potentia...
Article
If occurrence of individual species can be modeled as a function of easily quantified environmental variables (e.g., derived from a geographic information system [GIS]) and the predictions of these models are demonstrably successful, then the scientific foundation for management planning will be strengthened. We used Bayesian logistic regression to...
Article
Full-text available
Studies of fragmented landscapes, especially in the tropics, have traditionally focused on the native fragments themselves, ignoring species distributions in surrounding agricultural or other human-dominated areas. We sampled moth species richness within a 227-ha forest fragment and in four surrounding agricultural habitats (coffee, shade coffee, p...
Article
We tested whether montane butterflies exhibit similar responses to elevation in two adjacent mountain ranges in the Great Basin; whether surface water availability, canyon depth and canyon width vary predictably with elevation; and whether those factors act in conjunction with elevation to generate the observed gradients in species richness. These...
Article
Full-text available
Globally, tropical deforestation releases 20 to 30% of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Conserving forests could reduce emissions, but the cost-effectiveness of this mechanism for mitigation depends on the associated opportunity costs. We estimated these costs from local, national, and global perspectives using a case study from Madagascar. Conserva...
Article
Full-text available
A workshop was convened in April 1999 to assess conservation and research priorities in the greater Calakmul region in southeastern Mexico. The largest tropical protected area in Mexico is located in Calakmul, but it suffers from basic reserve design problems. Participants in the workshop used a five-step process to assess the contribution of ecolo...
Article
1. Despite wide recognition of the need for catchment-scale management to ensure the integrity of river ecosystems, the science and policy basis for joint management of land and water remains poorly understood. An interdisciplinary case study of a river basin in south-eastern Michigan is presented. 2. The River Raisin drains an area of 2776 km2, of...

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