John Bloomfield

British Geological Survey · Groundwater Science

Drought forecasting and early warning systems for water resource extremes are increasingly important tools in water resource management in Europe where increased population density and climate change are expected to place greater pressures on water supply. In this context, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is often used to indicate future water...

Drought forecasting and early warning systems for water resource extremes are increasingly important tools in water resource management, particularly in Europe where increased population density and climate change are expected to place greater pressures on water supply. In this context, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) ais often used to indicat...

Managing water–human systems during water shortages or droughts is key to avoid the overexploitation of water resources and, in particular, groundwater. Groundwater is a crucial water resource during droughts as it sustains both environmental and anthropogenic water demand. Drought management is often guided by drought policies, to avoid crisis man...

Water resource management (WRM) practices, such as groundwater and surface water abstractions and effluent discharges, may impact baseflow. Here the CAMELS-GB large-sample hydrology dataset is used to assess the impacts of such practices on Baseflow Index (BFI) using statistical models of 429 catchments from Great Britain. Two complementary modelli...

There is a scarcity of long-term groundwater hydrographs from sub-Saharan Africa to investigate groundwater sustainability, processes and controls. This paper presents an analysis of 21 hydrographs from semi-arid South Africa. Hydrographs from 1980 to 2000 were converted to standardised groundwater level indices and rationalised into four types (C1...

There is a no lack of significant open questions in the field of hydrology. How will hydrological connectivity between freshwater bodies be altered by future human alterations to the hydrological cycle? Where does water go when it rains? Or what is the future space-time variability of flood and drought events? However, the answers to these question...

Water resource management (WRM) practices, such as abstractions and discharges, may impact baseflow. Here the CAMELS-GB large-sample hydrology dataset is used to assess the impacts of such practices on baseflow index (BFI) using statistical models of 429 catchments from Great Britain. Two complementary modelling schemes, multiple linear regression...

Managing water-human systems in times of water shortage and droughts is key to avoid overexploitation of water resources, particularly for groundwater, which is a crucial water resource during droughts sustaining both environmental and anthropogenic water demand. Drought management is often guided by drought policies to avoid crisis management and...

Groundwater use affects groundwater storage continuously as the removal of water changes both short-term and long-term groundwater level variation. This has implications for groundwater droughts, i.e. a below-normal groundwater level. The impact of groundwater use on groundwater droughts, however, remains unknown. Hence, the aim of this study is to...

We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain, CAMELS-GB (Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies). CAMELS-GB collates river flows, catchment attributes and catchment boundaries from the UK National River Flow Archive together with a suite of new meteorological time series and catchment attrib...

In Europe, it is estimated that around 65 % of drinking water is extracted from groundwater. Worryingly , groundwater drought events (defined as below normal groundwater levels) pose a threat to water security. Groundwater droughts are caused by seasonal to multi-seasonal or even multi-annual episodes of meteorological drought during which the drou...

An understanding of multi-annual behaviour in streamflow allows for better estimation of the risks associated with hydrological extremes. This is can enable improved preparedness for streamflow-dependant services such as freshwater ecology, drinking water supply and agriculture. Recently, efforts have focused on detecting relationships between long...

Abstract. We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain, CAMELS-GB (Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies). CAMELS-GB collates river flows, catchment attributes and catchment boundaries from the UK National River Flow Archive together with a suite of new meteorological timeseries and catchme...

Study region: The study region is Great Britain (GB), a small non-continental island landmass in North West Europe Study focus: Data for Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) from groundwater samples can be used to characterise regional-scale variations in the quality of deep groundwater systems. Combined with information about typical well-depths, TDS data...

Abstract. Groundwater use affects groundwater storage continuously, as the removal of water changes both short-term and long-term variation in groundwater level. This has implications for groundwater droughts, i.e. a below-normal groundwater level. The impact of groundwater use on groundwater droughts remains unknown. Hence, the aim of this study i...

Benchmarking model performance across large samples of catchments is useful to guide model selection and future model development. Given uncertainties in the observational data we use to drive and evaluate hydrological models, and uncertainties in the structure and parameterisation of models we use to produce hydrological simulations and prediction...

This paper describes a new screening method for assessing groundwater vulnerability to pollution from hydrocarbon exploitation in the subsurface. The method can be used for various hydrocarbon energy sources, including conventional oil and gas, shale gas and oil, coal bed methane and underground coal gasification. Intrinsic vulnerability of potenti...

Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic contro...

Understanding the impact of climate change on borehole yields from fractured aquifers is essential for future water resources planning and management. Although variation in hydraulic conductivity with depth (VKD) in fractured aquifers is a well-known phenomenon, the relative significance of climate change and VKD on borehole yield estimates is poor...

Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers, globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic contr...

Here we present the first empirical evidence for changes in groundwater drought associated with anthropogenic warming in the absence of long-term changes in precipitation. Analysing standardised indices of monthly groundwater levels, precipitation and temperature, using two unique groundwater level data sets from the Chalk aquifer, UK, for the peri...

Benchmarking model performance across large samples of catchments is useful to guide future model development. Given uncertainties in the observational data we use to drive and evaluate hydrological models, and uncertainties in the structure and parameterisation of models we use to produce hydrological simulations and predictions, it is essential t...

It is widely acknowledged that waterbodies are becoming increasingly affected by a wide range of drivers of change arising from human activity. To illustrate how this can be quantified a linked modelling approach was applied in the Thames river basin in southern UK. Changes to river flows, water temperature, river and reservoir quality were predict...

This report is the product of a joint British Geological Survey (BGS) – Environment Agency (EA) study to assess the vulnerability of groundwater in relation to deep sub-surface hydrocarbon activity (3D Groundwater Vulnerability) in England. Available from: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/520550/1/OR18012.pdf

An empirical (geo)statistical modelling scheme is developed to address the challenges of modelling the severity and distribution of groundwater droughts given their spatially and temporally heterogeneous nature and given typically highly irregular groundwater level observations in space and time. The scheme is tested using GWL measurements from 948...

Here we present the first empirical evidence for changes in groundwater droughts associated with anthropogenic warming in the absence of significant long-term trends in precipitation. Analysing standardised indices of monthly groundwater levels, precipitation and temperature, using two unique groundwater level data sets from the Chalk aquifer, UK f...

Shale gas is considered by many to have the potential to provide the UK with greater energy security, economic growth and jobs. However, development of a shale gas industry is highly contentious due to environmental concerns including the risk of groundwater pollution. Evidence suggests that the vertical separation between exploited shale units and...

Abstract Groundwater and surface water are often closely coupled and are both under the influence of multiple stressors. Stressed groundwater systems may lead to a poor ecological status of surface waters but to date no conceptual framework to analyse linked multi-stressed groundwater – surface water systems has been developed. In this paper, a fra...

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by...

Controls on the spatiotemporal extent of groundwater flooding are poorly understood, despite the long duration of groundwater flood events and distinct social and economic impacts. We developed a novel approach using statistical analysis of groundwater level hydrographs and impulse response functions (IRFs) and applied it to the 2013/14 Chalk groun...

The ability to predict future variability of groundwater resources in time and space is of critical importance to drought management. Periodic control on groundwater levels from oscillatory climatic systems (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation) offers a potentially valuable source of longer term forecasting capability. While some studies have fo...

Groundwater ecosystems comprising micro-organisms and metazoans provide an important contribution to global biodiversity. Their complexity depends on geology, which determines the physical habitat available, and the chemical conditions within it. Despite this, methods of classifying groundwater habitats using geological data are not well establishe...

In the previous report (D4.1, September 2016) we have developed predictive linkages between indicators of environmental quality and ecosystem services, and different types of pressures, single or multiple, across river basins from all over Europe, in a latitudinal and a west-east gradient, and having very different conditions of climate and land us...

In order to determine objectively the fractal behaviour of a time series, and to facilitate potential future attempts to assess model performance by incorporating fractal behaviour, a multi-order robust detrended fluctuation analysis (r-DFAn) procedure is developed herein. The r-DFAn procedure allows for robust and automated quantification of mono-...

Summary D5.1-1 Part 1: Multi-stressors on surface water and effects on ecological statusHumans have increased the discharge of pollution, altered water flow regime and modified the morphology of rivers. All these actions have resulted in multiple pressures on freshwater ecosystems, undermining their biodiversity and ecological functioning. The Euro...

This article presents an innovative framework for analysing environmental governance challenges by focusing on their Drivers, Responses and Impacts (DRI). It builds on and modifies the widely applied Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts and Responses (DPSIR) model. It suggests, firstly and most importantly, that the various temporal and spatial scal...

Deliverable D4.1 is a synthesis report of the 16 regional case studies being undertaken in WP4 (Multi-stressors at the river basin scale. The report is composed of 3 parts. Part 1: Task 4.2 - Southern Basins region Part 1 reports the background to, and results and conclusions from Task 4.2 on four case studies from the Southern Basins region. The...

The modelling undertaken across the study basins allow us to have an understanding of the trends displayed by the data gathered at the various case-studies, encompassing a global view of European riverscapes. Overall, the studies highlight a general difficulty to identify significant pair-wise multi-stressor interactions, even if considering that s...

Informal and formal likelihood methods can be used to quantify uncertainty in modelled predictions of groundwater levels (GWLs). Informal methods use a relatively subjective criterion to identify sets of plausible or behavioural parameters of the GWL models. In contrast, formal methods specify a statistical model for the residuals or errors of the...

Multi-decadal groundwater level records, which provide information about long-term variability and trends, are relatively rare. Whilst a number of studies have sought to reconstruct river flow records, there have been few attempts to reconstruct groundwater level time-series over a number of decades. Using long rainfall and temperature records, we...

The Chalk is an important water supply aquifer, yet ecosystems within it remain poorly understood. Boreholes (198) in seven areas of England (UK) were sampled to determine the importance of the Chalk aquifer as a habitat, and to improve understanding of how species are distributed. Stygobitic macro-invertebrates were remarkably common, and were rec...

Groundwater drought is a spatially and temporally variable phenomenon. Here we describe the development of a method to regionally analyse and quantify groundwater drought. The method uses a cluster analysis technique (non-hierarchical k-means) to classify standardised groundwater level hydrographs (the standardised groundwater level index, SGI) pri...

Groundwater drought is a spatially and temporally variable phenomenon. Here we describe the development and application of a method to regionalize and quantify groundwater drought based on categorisation of Standardised Groundwater level Index (SGI) time series. The categorisation scheme uses non-hierarchical k-means cluster analysis. This has been...

Anthropogenic impacts on the aquatic environment, especially in the context of nutrients, provide a major challenge for water resource management. The heterogeneous nature of policy relevant management units (e.g. catchments), in terms of environmental controls on nutrient source and transport, leads to the need for holistic management. However, cu...

The English Lowlands is a relatively dry, densely populated region in the south-east of the UK in which water is used intensively. Consequently, parts of the region are water-stressed and face growing water resource pressures. The region is heavily dependent on groundwater and particularly vulnerable to long, multi-annual droughts primarily associa...

There have been many published studies aiming to identify temporal changes in river flow time series, most of which use monotonic trend tests such as the Mann–Kendall test. Although robust to both the distribution of the data and incomplete records, these tests have important limitations and provide no information as to whether a change in variabil...

The English Lowlands is a relatively dry, densely populated region in the south-east of the UK in which water is used intensively. Consequently, parts of the region are water-stressed and face growing water resource pressures. The region is heavily dependent on groundwater and particularly vulnerable to long, multi-annual droughts primarily associa...

Hydrological classification systems seek to provide information about the dominant processes in the catchment to enable information to be transferred between catchments. Currently there is no widely agreed-upon system for classifying river catchments. This paper develops a novel approach to classifying catchments based on the temporal dependence st...

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate m...

We examine the evidence for climate-change impacts on groundwater levels provided by studies of the historical observational record, and future climate-change impact modelling. To date no evidence has been found for systematic changes in groundwater drought frequency or intensity in the UK, but some evidence of multi-annual to decadal coherence of...

The UK may possess considerable reserves of shale gas underlying a significant proportion of the UK, but as yet there has been very little exploratory drilling to confirm the resource potential. The areas likely to be exploited for shale gas are overlain in many areas by aquifers used for drinking water supply and for supporting baseflow to rivers....

The English Lowlands is a relatively dry, densely populated region in the southeast of the UK in which water is used very intensively. Consequently, parts of the region are water-stressed and face growing water resource pressures. The region is heavily dependent on groundwater and particularly vulnerable to long, multi-annual droughts, primarily as...

The English Lowlands is the most populated part of the UK, and parts of the region are already water-stressed. The region is heavily dependent on groundwater resources, and is thus vulnerable to long, multi-annual drought episodes that include dry winters (winter being the time groundwater is replenished). This study uses a range of meteorological...