Joel Smalley

Claims made by government agencies and COVID vaccine manufacturers about the safety and effectiveness of the COVID vaccine rely on data and analysis that is unreliable. However, by using simple surveys to collect the data, it is possible to accurately estimate the two key metrics to test the safe and effective hypothesis-the true rate of the vaccin...

The accuracy of any data purporting to show covid 19 vaccine effectiveness or safety is critically dependent on the accuracy of four measurements: (1) people classified as having the disease; (2) vaccination status; (3) reported deaths; and (4) the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated (the so called 'denominators'). Errors in any of these coul...

The risk/benefit of Covid vaccines is arguably most accurately measured by comparing the all-cause mortality rate of vaccinated against unvaccinated, since it not only avoids most confounders relating to case definition but also fulfils the WHO/CDC definition of "vaccine effectiveness" for mortality. We examine two of the most recent UK ONS vaccine...

This paper has been updated and the new version can be found here: Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination UPDATED WITH ONS DECEMBER DATA RELEASE & HEALTHY VACCINEE/MORIBUND ANALYSIS http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28055.09124 https://www.re...

The Covid 19 pandemic has highlighted how important data is to Government for decision making, and the significance of data transparency for the public and Parliament in holding Government to account. This inquiry was focused on decision making and transparency in response to Covid 19, using this as a case study to draw out recommendations that ca...