Joaquim Oliveira Martins

Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales | CEPII

The recent literature on the ‘geography of discontent’ has introduced a major break in the debate about the rationale for regional policy and its relevance, namely the motivation for ‘place-based’ and ‘place-sensitive’ policies. At the aggregate level, most economists would say that productivity growth and technological advance are rarely against e...

Conjunto de três textos publicados no jornal Público, a propósito da importância do conhecimento geográfico e da dimensão territorial na desenvolvimento económico. Abordagem multiescalar, com recurso a cartografia e comparação entre países, regiões e concelhos, fundamentando a necessidade - e a importância - de uma governança territorial para o des...

Using a large panel for 95 countries and the 1972–2014 period, this paper analyses the interactions among globalization, political & civil rights and economic convergence, through a simultaneous estimation technique. We use a multi-dimensional, de facto, and continuous measures of Freedoms and Globalization. We find a two-way positive relationship...

This paper offers a comparative analysis of regions in the United States (US) and European Union (EU) countries before and during the aftermath of the global financial crisis. By using a regional taxonomy approaching a functional definition, we can compare in a more meaningful way the regions in EU countries and the US. We use of a newly developed...

This chapter describes and discusses a regional development policy approach for national productivity and growth based on three regional layers: (i) large metropolitan areas; (ii) rural/intermediate regions close to cities; and (iii) remote rural regions. First, we analyze the trends of tertiarization of OECD economies and their relation to the inc...

This working paper offers a synthesis of the current knowledge on the determinants of productivity. It carefully reviews both “spatial” (e.g. agglomerations, infrastructure, geography) and “aspatial” (e.g. human capital, labour regulations, industry-level innovation and dynamism) productivity drivers and demonstrates how the underlying spatial dyna...

Using a panel of 265 regions from 24 OECD countries from 1997 to 2007, we explore the impact of nation-wide macroeconomic and structural policies on the productivity growth of subnational regions. We find that average relationships between nation-wide policies and regional productivity growth can hide strong differentiated effects according to the...

-Cities and urban systems have a very important role to generate inclusive growth. The complementarities between efficiency and equity are often more effective at the city scale, but need to be constructed through an effective alignment of policies across levels of government, sectors and administrative units. -Positive Economics (what to do?) need...

This paper investigates the impact of policies and institutions on health expenditures for a large panel of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries for the period of 2000–2010. A set of 20 policy and institutional indicators developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development are integrated into a theore...

The effectiveness of unilateral action to curb carbon emissions has been dismissed because of possible “carbon leakages”, this referring to the rise of emissions in non-participating countries. This paper offers a general equilibrium (GE) exploration of the key mechanisms and factors underlying the size of carbon leakages. We developed a two-region...

Cet article décrit les principales tendances qui se dégagent en termes de croissance et de convergence entre les régions de l’OCDE. Il discute ensuite les facteurs de croissance au niveau régional et les principaux changements en termes de politique territoriale mise en œuvre dans les pays de l’OCDE. Il termine par une discussion sur l’utilisation...

My presentation focused on “The Contribution of Regions and Cities to Inclusive Growth”. Drawing from empirical evidence, the main point is that there seems to be some trade-offs between aggregate productivity performance and regional inequalities. The role for regional and urban policies should then be to help transforming these trade-offs into sy...

Economic activity tends to concentrate in space, generating very large spatial imbalances. As a result, there has been an on-going questioning on whether policies should address those spatial imbalances and if so which form should they take. In this context, the new economic geography literature has provided the foundations of modern location theor...

This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from long-term care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by better ide...

This article investigates the contribution of regions to aggregate growth. We find a great degree of heterogeneity in the performance of Territorial Level 3 (TL3) regions of the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). The regional contributions to aggregate growth follow a power law, with a coefficient around 1.2 (in absolute...

This paper investigates the impact of complementarity reforms on growth and how it depends on GDP per capita. Based on reform data for six policy areas compiled from various sources during the period 1994–2006 for over 100 countries, we compute composite indicators of reform level and complementarity. We provide qualitative justification for the ex...

This paper analyses the impact of health, pension systems and longevity on savings. It uses a simple life-cycle model embodying social transfers (health care and pension expenditures) and changes in longevity to determine the level of household savings. From this model, we derived an econometric specification, augmented with the effects of public b...

This paper addresses the interactions between globalization, the quality of democracy, and economic convergence using simultaneous estimation techniques. To reflect process, we use multi-dimensional, de facto, and continuous measures of democracy and globalization. To reflect context, as defined by space (geography) and time (history), we control f...

This paper examines the spatial patterns in service sector activities and links them to the overall trends in the service sector among OECD countries. We find that services have a strong spatial dimension linked to non-tradable activities which depend on local conditions. In particular we observe a decrease in the geographic concentration of servic...

This papers aims to understand the impact of nation-wide structural policies such as product market regulation in six upstream sectors and employment protection legislation and that of macroeconomic factors on the productivity growth of OECD regions. In particular we explore how this effect varies with the productivity gap of regions with their cou...

This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, seven years after a first set of projections was published by the OECD. It disentangles health from long-term care expenditure, as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by exte...

This paper analyses the impact of health, pension systems and longevity on savings. It uses a simple life-cycle model embodying social transfers (health care and pension expenditures) and changes in longevity to determine the level of household savings. From this model, we derived an econometric specification, augmented with the effects of public b...

The effectiveness of unilateral action to curb carbon emissions has been dismissed because of possible “carbon leakages”, this referring to the rise of emissions in non-participating countries. This paper offers a general equilibrium (GE) exploration of the key mechanisms and factors underlying the size of carbon leakages. We developed a two-region...

This paper brings together the latest data and OECD productivity indicators in different areas with the aim of reviewing the main productivity trends over the past decade, comparing the United States, Europe and to some extent Japan. Concerning economy wide indicators of productivity, the slowdown appears to be due to a significant slowdown in inve...

Using monthly trade data for OECD nations, this chapter first highlights the very exceptional nature of the great trade collapse. It then presents evidence to suggest that the magnitude of the global decline reflects greater synchronisation of trade flow declines across countries.

The increase in life expectancy is arguably the most remarkable by-product of modern economic growth. In the last 30 years we have been gaining roughly 2.5 years of longevity every decade both in Europe and in the United States. This progress has outpaced the most optimistic scenarios and documented that demographic projections are no more reliable...

This chapter analyses the links between health care expenditures, technology, and health status from a micro-level perspective. A conventional explanation for the rising share of health spending in GDP, by increasing coverage also boosted aggregate health spending. Another explanation is related to a cost disease story. Health, like other care serv...

This chapter assesses the impact of health expenditures and better health status on potential growth and productivity. It presents some 'thought experiments' on the indexation of active life on longevity and impact of ageing on aggregate productivity. After analysing the impact of income growth on health spending, the chapter closes the loop by inv...

Since human capital is the main driver of productivity and growth in knowledge-based economies, health should also matter for economic outcomes. In the context of rapid population ageing, the contribution of health for human capital and hence for growth potential could become even more important. This chapter tackles these issues by offering an int...

This chapter deals with demographic facts. Ageing trends are the result of two different and contrasted phenomena: the change from a high to a low fertility regime and the increase in longevity. The baby boom and subsequent fertility bust was a massive but transitory shock. In contrast, the smooth and steady increase in longevity does look like a p...

This chapter investigates empirically the relation between GDP growth and health expenditures. Since Newhouse (1977) an extensive empirical literature has sought to assess whether health care is a luxury (income elasticity above one) or a necessity (elasticity below one). This is still an unsettled issue, which is unfortunate since most projections...

This chapter develops a projection method to assess the size of aggregate expenditures (both public and private) that could be channeled to the health sector. It proposes an integrated framework of these different drivers and derives different scenarios for total health spending at the horizon of 2050.

This paper investigates the impact of reforms and their complementarity on growth. Based on reform data for six policy areas compiled by the Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom and the World Bank, we compute composite indicators of reform level and complementarity during the period 1994-2006 for 130 countries. We provide qualitative jus...

While the empirical evidence tends to support some predictions of the life-cycle theory, a number of puzzles remain: an ageing-consumption, an ageing-saving, a saving-capitalisation and a saving-longevity puzzles have been put forward in the literature. This paper analyses the links between these puzzles and develops a model relating usual life-cyc...

Many OECD countries are aiming to reform their tertiary education (TE) systems. This work explores the determinants of the investment in TE, with a focus on institutional setting of TE systems and private incentives to undertake years of schooling beyond upper-secondary degree level. For this purpose the article first develops estimates of three ma...

In order to assess the growth implications of policy complementarities, this paper applies second-best results to reform indicators. During the transition from central planning to EU integration, which corresponds to a policy cycle, a complementarity index based on structural indicators compiled by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Developme...

This paper offers an integrated view of the relationships between health spending, medical innovation, health status, growth and welfare. Health spending triggers technological progress, which is a potential source of better outcomes in terms of longevity and quality of life, a direct source of growth for the bio-tech industries and an indirect sou...

While the empirical evidence tends to support some predictions of the life-cycle theory, a number of puzzles remain: an ageing-consumption, an ageing-saving, a saving-capitalisation and a saving-longevity puzzles have been put forward in the literature. This paper analyses the links between these puzzles and develops a model relating usual life-cyc...

La présentation est en anglais. oui

This article assesses how policies and institutions affect private returns to invest in tertiary human capital, the ability of individuals to finance this investment and the institutional characteristics of tertiary education systems. Focusing on core tertiary education services, the paper uses new measures of private returns to tertiary education,...

This collection of articles hinges on two central themes. The first relates to product differentiation, to the methodological problems raised by the estimates of trade equations and their implications on the analysis of international competition. The estimates of price elasticities of trade flows underlie a first series of papers? The second theme...

This paper proposes a framework for projecting public health and long-term care expenditures. It considers demographic and other (non-demographic) drivers of expenditures. The paper extends demographic drivers by incorporating death-related costs and the health status of the population. Concerning health care, the projections incorporate income and...

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for projecting public heath and long-term care expenditures. Notably, it considers the impact of demographic and non-demographic effects for both health and long-term care. Compared with other studies, the paper extends the demographic drivers by incorporating death-related costs and the health status o...

Les dépenses publiques consacrées à la santé et aux soins de longue durée (SLD ci-après) sont un sujet de préoccupation pour les gouvernements de la plupart des pays de l’OCDE. Leur accélération récente exerce une pression sur les budgets publics, qui s’ajoute à celle résultant de la réforme incomplète des régimes de retraite et d’autres formes de...

Nous proposons dans cette étude un cadre de prévision des dépenses publiques de santé et de soins de longue durée. Nous examinons les déterminants démographiques et d�autres déterminants (non démographiques) de ces dépenses. Nous incluons dans les déterminants démographiques analysés les coûts liés aux décès et l'état de santé de la population. En...

This paper examines the channels through which ageing will shape the main economic factors that in turn affect potential growth; identifies current policy settings that may in fact amplify the adverse impact of demographic trends; and sets out policy reforms that will work to temper the effects of ageing on growth. The paper begins with a brief dis...

The paper set out four types of market structure clusters (based on an OECD benchmark) to assess different entry barriers, both endogenous and policy-induced that may affect the ability of enterprises in emerging countries to penetrate international markets. This framework is then applied to analyze the trade specialization of Argentina, Brazil and...

The paper set out four types of market structure clusters (based on an OECD benchmark) to assess different entry barriers, both endogenous and policy-induced that may affect the ability of enterprises in emerging countries to penetrate international markets. This framework is then applied to analyse the trade specialisation of Argentina, Brazil and...

In this article we investigate the role both the old large enterprises sector and the new SME sector have played during transition in Romania. In the first part, based on micro data for the large SOE sector, we document how heavily loss-making enterprises have been able to survive for a decade, through initially direct and later increasingly indire...

This paper presents estimates of the cyclical fluctuations of price-cost margins, following an extended version of the Rotemberg and Woodford (1991) approach. The results support the hypothesis of counter-cyclical price margins in most manufacturing industries, especially in the presence of downward rigidities of labour inputs. This is consistent w...

[spa] Comercio y mercado laboral en competencia imperfecta . . ¿ Cuál es el papel de las ganancias (o de las rentas) en el impacto del comercio sobre el mercado laboral? ¿ Cómo aprehenderlo en teoría y medirlo empíricamente? La literatura económica en cuanto a la abertura, al reparto de la renta y al ajuste de los salarios se ha interesado en espec...

This paper reviews a method to estimate of mark-up ratios for a large sample of manufacturing industries and OECD countries. On the basis of the evidence presented, the existence of imperfect competition in product markets can be hardly disputed. The results are robust, but further work needs to done in order to improve both the information on the...

Convergence of transition countries will have an impact on their external competitiveness. However, small open economies can grow faster than their partners without being constrained by the balance of payments if they succeed in increasing the supply of differentiated goods produced domestically (variety effect). This will require extensive economi...