João A Santos

• Professor
• Full Professor at University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro

Irrigation water management in the Mediterranean region faces major challenges due to climate variability and changes. To address this reality, tools that support early decision-making are increasingly needed. While seasonal forecasts (SWF) have demonstrated potential to assist the agricultural sector, their practical application in irrigation mana...

Traditional viticulture is becoming increasingly insufficient to deal with the pressure from climate changes and market competitiveness. Due to these challenges, efficient modelling is needed to increase the efficiency and modernization of the sector. This work presents a review of the most relevant research on grapevine crop modelling, including a...

This study investigates the spatial–temporal dynamics of vegetation indices in olive orchards across two traditionally rainfed regions of the Iberian Peninsula, namely the “Trás-os-Montes” (TM) agrarian region in Portugal and the Badajoz (BA) province in Spain, in response to drought conditions. Using satellite-derived vegetation indices, derived f...

Heavy precipitation events are a natural hazard that have significant socioeconomic implications, especially in sectors like agriculture, namely viticulture. This study is the first to present a detailed climatology of extreme precipitation across mainland Portugal, leveraging hourly data gathered from 71 meteorological stations over 23 years, span...

Agricultural intensification, as well as the abandonment of traditional agriculture practices, can result in reduced biodiversity and ecosystem services that are difficult to reverse because of the long-time lags characterising the dynamics of socio-ecological systems (Santos et al., 2022b). Societal and ecological mechanisms interact, generating c...

Agroclimatic indicators help convey information about climate variability and change in terms that are meaningful to the agricultural sector. This study evaluated climate projections for Angola, particularly for provinces with more significant agricultural potential. To this end, 15 predefined agroclimatic indicators in 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, und...

This special issue presents a collection of works presenting novel approaches that combine ecological indicators with remote sensing, spatio-temporal modelling, high resolution climate and virtual reality, to improve management of mountain landscapes, their associated services and sustainability facing socio-ecological changes.

This systematic review, based on an adaptation of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement from 2020, focuses on studies of the atmospheric mechanisms underlying extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal, as well as observed trends and projections. The 54 selected articles cover the period fr...

Portugal, a leading olive oil producer, boasts six Protected Denomination of Origin (PDO) regions, with distinct olive orchard (OR) densities (traditional rainfed to super-intensive irrigated). This study aimed to assess future drought and aridity conditions and the impacts on ORs located in the PDOs. Therefore, drought and aridity indicators were...

Crop landcover datasets are crucial for modern agriculture, aiding farmers, researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders. These databases offer extensive insights into crop distribution, facilitating informed decision-making for sustainable practices, particularly under a changing climate. Moreover, these datasets drive research, fostering collabora...

A useful resource for understanding and describing worldwide climatic patterns is the Köppen-Geiger (KG) climate classification system. The classification of climates suited for viticulture has been crucial to the wine sector, given the importance of climate in cultivating grapes for wine production. Wine production has come to be associated with M...

Warming and drying trends in the Mediterranean Basin exacerbate regional water scarcity and threaten agricultural production, putting global food security at risk. This study aimed to review the most significant research on future water availability for the Mediterranean agricultural sector under climate change (CC) scenarios published during 2009–...

The Montenegrin climate is characterised as very heterogeneous due to its complex topography. The viticultural heritage, dating back to before the Roman empire, is settled in a Mediterranean climate region, located south of the capital Podgorica, where climate conditions favour red wine production. However, an overall increase in warmer and drier p...

The global increase in extreme weather and climate events may dramatically impact agriculture, food safety, and socioeconomic dynamics. The Mediterranean basin is already exposed to extreme climatic events, severely challenging viticulture, a pivotal Mediterranean agro–industry. This study aims to understand better how climate is expected to evolve...

A valuable tool for comprehending and characterizing climate patterns on a global scale is the Köppen–Geiger climate classification system. When it comes to wine production, the climate of a region plays an essential role in determining whether specific grape varieties can be cultivated, largely determining the style of wine that can be made, and i...

Vineyards and olive groves are two of the most important Mediterranean crops, not only for their economic value but also for their cultural and environmental significance, playing a crucial role in global agriculture. This systematic review, based on an adaptation of the 2020 PRISMA statement, focuses on the use of satellite remote sensing tools fo...

The Côa region in inner-northern Portugal heavily relies on viticulture, which is a cornerstone of its economy and cultural identity. Understanding the intricate relationship between climatic variables and wine production (WP) is crucial for adapting management practices to changing climatic conditions. This study employs machine learning (ML), spe...

Understanding microclimate spatial variability is crucial for sustainable and optimised grape production within vineyard plots. By employing a combination of a microclimate model (NicheMapR) and multiple climate data sources, this study aimed to achieve microclimatic analysis in two vineyard plots, Quinta do Bomfim (northern Portugal) and Herdade d...

The changing global climate, characterized by rising surface air temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and heightened occurrences of extreme weather events, is anticipated to profoundly impact the environment, economy, and society worldwide. This impact is particularly acute in African nations like Angola, where crucial sectors, such as ag...

Angola is vulnerable to climate change, as most of its agriculture is rain-fed and repre-sents the backbone of the people of the southern region of the country, and many peo-ple’s livelihoods depend on it. All crops can suffer from the impacts of climate change, which can lead to challenges in agricultural production and food security in different...

Co-design processes involving the scientific community, practitioners, end users and stakeholders can efficiently characterize harmful weather events during the growing season that potentially result in losses of crop yield and quality. This study builds on the experience of the EU Horizon 2020 project MED-GOLD for grape and olive. The identified a...

The mechanisms shaping biodiversity in agroecosystems and particularly in agroforestry are mostly unknown, difficult to understand and predict, and remain largely elusive and challenging. The relation between planned biodiversity, the species chosen by the farmer, and associated biodiversity, the species that are able to adapt and thrive in agrofor...

Mediterranean mountain peatlands are unique ecosystems because of their distinct hydrology and environmental conditions, as well as being home to a vast array of rare and endemic species. Due to anthropogenic activities and ongoing climate change, mountain peatlands are one of the most endangered ecosystems in Mediterranean areas. Climate scenarios...

The Douro region is renowned for its quality wines, particularly for the famous Port Wine. Vintage years, declared approximately 2-3 times per decade, signify exceptional quality linked to optimum climatic conditions driving grape quality attributes. Climate change poses challenges, as rising temperatures and extreme weather events impact viticultu...

Climatic studies of agricultural regions normally use gauge-based air temperature datasets, which are produced with interpolation methods. The informative quality of these datasets varies depending on the density of the weather stations in a particular region. A way to overcome this limitation is to use the land surface temperature calculated from...

The susceptibility to precipitation extreme events (PEEs) and aridity in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) were assessed over a long historical period (1950–2022). Eight extreme precipitation and two aridity indices were calculated. Furthermore, two newly developed composite and principal component-based susceptibility indices were applied. For this purpo...

Climate strongly influences not only the distribution and abundance of species on Earth but also the distribution of ecosystem types. Since the climate is defined as a long-term pattern of weather conditions at a given location or region both the distribution and evolution of its conditions are considered highly relevant. The Köppen-Geiger climate...

Grape berries and their yields can be strongly affected by the complex connections and interactions between the grapevines and the conditions of the local environment. In areas of known wine production, the yield and quality are usually improved by considering the climate, planting the best grape variety, and using specific agricultural techniques....

Wind energy fluxes over Portugal and the nearby Atlantic Ocean were estimated under an IPCC future socioeconomic scenario (IPCC SSP5-8.5) for the 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 periods, using wind speed data from WRF 6 km regional simulations. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) global model ensemble simulations were also used to assess future a...

Climate change and variability can be characterized by an increasing CO2 level, rising temperatures, and altered regional precipitation patterns, accompanied by more frequent and intense extreme weather events. This brings numerous risks to agricultural and crop production. Crop and climate models are essential tools to assess climate change impact...

Grasslands are key elements of the global agricultural system, covering around two-thirds of all agricultural areas and playing an important role in biodiversity conservation, food security, and balancing the carbon cycle. Climate change is a growing challenge for the agricultural sector and may threaten grasslands. To address these challenges, it...

Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) associated with regional low-pressure (RegL) systems in Portugal are a natural hazard that may have significant socioeconomic implications, namely in agriculture. Therefore, in this paper, their dynamic and thermodynamic drivers are analysed. Three weather stations were used to isolate SHHPs from 2000 t...

The increasing gap between water demands and availability is a significant challenge for sustainable water management, particularly in the context of growing irrigation needs driven by climate change. In the Côa region (inner-north Portugal), agriculture plays a vital role in the local economy, ensuring food security and contributing to the conserv...

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2023.974020.].

Climate change is one of the most emergent environmental challenges, with rising global temperatures, changes in precipitation regimes, and an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Climate change impacts on the agrarian sector are being experienced across the world and are expected to be aggravated in the upcoming decades. Al...

The Trás-os-Montes agrarian region (TM; north-eastern Portugal) is a traditionally growing area of almond trees. However, climate change may significantly alter the current growing conditions and threaten sustainability. Chilling and forcing conditions in TM are assessed herein, also considering different varietal phenological timings. The dynamic...

The almond tree (Prunus dulcis) is a species with high economic and social importance in Portugal. In 2020, mainland Portugal produced approximately 32 × 103 t of almonds, for an area of 52340 ha. Currently, the country presents favourable climatic conditions for the development of the species. However, in the future, the effects of climate change...

The FirESmart project – Nature-based solutions for preventive fire management and sustained supply of ecosystem services. Final Report – Project Deliverable R03

In Europe, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) encouraged the specialisation of agriculture and forestry systems by supporting schemes that promoted productivity, despite the socio-ecological changes' detrimental effects on ecosystem services and biodiversity. In the case of mountain viticulture of southern Europe, the adoption of intensive manage...

Thymus carnosus Boiss. is a near-threatened species, and, as for many species, its potential for medicinal purposes may be lost if measures towards plant protection are not taken. A way of preserving these species is to increase knowledge about their medicinal properties and economic potential. Thus, with the objective of studying the potentiality...

Vine phenology modelling is increasingly important for winegrowers and viticulturists. Model calibration is often required before practical applications. However, when multiple models and optimization methods are applied for different varieties, it is rarely known which factor tends to mostly affect the calibration results. We mainly aim to investi...

Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensities are analyzed for the metropolitan areas of the two major Portuguese cities, Lisbon and Porto, in the period 2008–2017. Projections for the UHI intensity averaged over 2008–2017 and a future period 2021–2050 are calculated under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. The spatiotemporal characteristics...

Introduction Climate change has been driving warming trends and changes in precipitation patterns and regimes throughout Europe. Future projections indicate a continuation of these trends in the next decades. This situation is challenging the sustainability of viniculture and, thus, significant efforts towards adaptation should be then carried out...

Seasonal phenology forecasts are becoming increasingly demanded by winegrowers and viticulturists. Forecast performance needs to be investigated over space and time before practical applications. We assess seasonal forecast performance (skill, probability and accuracy) in predicting flowering and veraison stages of two representative varieties in P...

This project deliverable summaries the main findings and policy recommendations of the FirESmart project – Nature-based solutions for preventive fire management and sustained supply of ecosystem services. This research was funded by national funds through the FCT – Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., under the FirESmart project (PCIF/MOG/0...

Future wind energy potential over Portugal is assessed, using wind speed data from a WRF regional simulation under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. Data from a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble were also used to assess future changes in the Euro-Atlantic large-scale circulation. CMIP6 results have shown a southward displacement of the mi...

Integrated management of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) in heterogeneous landscapes requires considering the potential trade-offs between conflicting objectives. The UNESCO's Biosphere Reserve zoning scheme is a suitable context to address these trade-offs by considering multiple management zones that aim to minimise conflicts between man...

The exposure of viticulture to climate change and extreme weather conditions makes the winemaking sector particularly vulnerable, being one of its major challenges in the current century. While grapevine is considered a highly tolerant crop to several abiotic stresses, Mediterranean areas are frequently affected by adverse environmental factors, na...

Earth system modelling is currently playing an increasing role in weather forecasting and understanding climate change, however, the operation, deployment and development of numerical Earth system models are extremely demanding in terms of computational resources and human effort. Merging synergies has become a natural process by which national met...

Throughout the last decades, the increasing pressure of anthropogenic (climate and land-use) changes has been a major impact on biodiversity in several regions and habitat types. These drivers have disturbed the timing of reproduction in animals and plants as well as the migration of animals resulting in changes in population size and species distr...

The impacts of wildfires are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin due to more extreme fire seasons featuring increasingly fast and high-intensity fires, which often overwhelm the response capacity of fire suppression forces. Fire behaviour is expected to become even more severe due to climate change. In this study, we quantified the effect of clim...

Olive tree cultivation is currently a dominant agriculture activity in the Mediterranean basin, where the increasing impact of climate change coupled with the inefficient management of olive groves is negatively affecting olive oil production and quality in some marginal areas. In this context, satellite imagery may help to monitor crop growth unde...

Climate-smart agriculture involves practices and crop modelling techniques aiming to provide practical answers to meet growers’ demands. For viticulturists, early prediction of harvest dates is critical for the success of cultural practices, which should be based on accurate planning of the annual growing cycle. We developed a modelling tool to ass...

In the original article [...]

The chestnut tree is an important forestry species worldwide, as well as a valuable food resource. Over recent years, Portugal has shown an increasing trend in chestnut tree area, as well as increases in production, hinting at the socioeconomic relevance of this agro-forestry species. In this study, bioclimatic indices are applied to analyse the sp...

The implementation of climate-smart policies to enhance carbon sequestration and reduce emissions is being encouraged worldwide to fight climate change. Afforestation practices and rewilding initiatives are climate-smart examples suggested to tackle these issues. In contrast, fire-smart approaches, by stimulating traditional farmland activities or...

The present study is devoted to climate change impact assessment on the phenological development and ripening of cv. Touriga Nacional in the Dão Wine Region, Portugal. For this purpose, the dates of the three main phenological stages (budbreak, flowering and veraison) and two maturity stages are projected for two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–...

With global warming, grapevine is expected to be increasingly exposed to water deficits occurring at various development stages. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential impacts of projected climate change on water deficits from the flowering to veraison period for two main white wine cultivars (Riesling and Müller-Thurgau) in Germany....

As civilization advances, water resources are increasingly being consumed for domestic, industrial, and agricultural purposes, reducing the ability to find an equilibrium of water security and growing demands. This study presents an analysis and discussion of climate change impacts on water and agricultural sectors in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and...

Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) frequently underlie major meteorological hazards, but their comprehensive analysis is still lacking in Portugal. A 71-weather-station dataset for 2000–2020 is used in this article to (1) diagnose SHHPs corresponding to a 10-min precipitation event of at least 5.0 mm, (2) characterize their spatial-tempo...

In the World Heritage Côa region, in northern Portugal, agriculture has crucial economic, social and cultural importance. Vineyards and olive groves are part of the economic base of this region, contributing to the regional commercial budget and the livelihood of its residents. Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on these crops,...

The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana; Denis and Schiffermüller, 1775) is considered a key pest for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in the Douro Region, Portugal. The phenology of both the grapevine and the pest has changed in the last decades due to the increase in temperature. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on the (a)...

The impacts of wildfires are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin due to more extreme fire seasons that often overwhelm the response capacity of fire suppression forces. In this study, we quantified the effect of climate change on fire danger (components of the Canadian FWI System) and wildfire behaviour characteristics (rate of spread and firelin...

In Europe, most of vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where water deficit has become increasingly an issue. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is known to depend on variety characteristics, soil and climate conditions. In this paper, we have carried out a retrospect...

This paper summarizes the results from microclimatic monitoring of the impacts related to the construction and exploration phase of a hydroelectric powerplant in the upper Douro River (Portugal). Reference climatic elements for both periods were obtained and the impacts of the reservoir water mass on the region’s microclimate were evaluated. For th...

The grapevine vegetative cycle, which is morphologically described by its phenological stages, is strongly determined by weather conditions. Phenological models are widely applied in viticulture and are based on the assumption that air temperature is the preponderant environmental factor which determines vine development. In this study, phenologica...

How institutional stakeholders perceive the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES) under distinct contexts determines which planning actions are deemed priority or not. Public officers play a crucial role in social-ecological management and decision-making processes, but there is a paucity of research exploring their perceptions on ES supply...

In the present study, we calibrated and validated thermal models to predict the DOY date at which the grape maturity index, potential alcohol/total acidity (PA/TA), reaches 0.75 (MS0.75), 1.0 (MS1), 1.5 (MS1.5), and 2.0 (MS2) for two grapevine Portuguese varieties, Touriga Nacional (TN) and Encruzado (EN), growing in the Dão wine region, Portugal....

Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Cl...

Reliable estimations of parameter values and associated uncertainties are crucial for crop model applications in agro-environmental research. However, estimating many parameters simultaneously for different types of response variables is difficult. This becomes more complicated for grapevines with different phenotypes between varieties and training...

Land and climate are strongly connected through multiple interface processes and climate change may lead to significant changes in land use. In this study, high-resolution observational gridded datasets are used to assess modifications in the Köppen–Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS) Classification Systems, from 1950–1979 to 1990–2019 in Portu...

Editorial This Special Issue covers the themes and subthemes discussed during the 4th International Conference on Ecohydrology, Soil and Climate Change, EcoHCC’2017, held in Figueira da Foz, Portugal in September 2017. The subthemes involved overall water issues, such as Water quality, Water resources and management, Operational and dynamical hydro...