João Santos

Universidade NOVA de Lisboa | NOVA · Nova School of Business and Economics (SBE)

Portugal introduced a sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) tax in 2017. This study uses unique administrative accounting data for all SSB producers/importers in Portugal, and an event study design with bottled water firms as the primary comparison group, to assess the causal impacts of the tax on multiple firm-level outcomes. We find a 6.8% average decr...

Portugal introduced a sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) tax in 2017. This study uses unique administrative accounting data for all SSB producers/importers in Portugal, and an event study design with bottled water firms as the primary comparison group, to assess the causal impacts of the tax on multiple firm-level outcomes. We find a 6.8% average decr...

We study the impact of the pandemic crisis using monthly data covering the universe of individuals registered as unemployed in mainland Portuguese municipalities, complemented with electronic payments, linked employer–employee data, and furlough records. Event study designs identify a sharp increase in unemployment, driven mostly by termination of...

We study the causal impact of the negative shock on short-term rentals caused by covid-19 in the tourist-intensive city centre of Lisbon. Our difference-in-differences strategy uses a parish-level treatment relying on the pre-pandemic intensity of short-term rentals, using data between Q3 2018 and Q3 2020. The results suggest that landlords relocat...

In this paper, we show how results in state administered university entrance standardized exams in Portugal are sensitive to the electoral cycle. Using individual data for all senior high school students taking national exams between the years 2004 and 2018, we reveal that whenever exams occur in years of upcoming legislative elections, the average...

We use novel and comprehensive monthly data on electronic payments, by municipality and sector, together with cash withdrawals, to study the impact of Covid-19 in Portugal. Our difference-in-differences event study identifies a causal decrease of 17 and 40 percentage points on the year-on-year growth rate of overall purchases in March and April 202...

We report on a large-scale (randomized) field experiment we designed and conducted to assess ATMs’ (automatic teller machines) capacity to “get out the vote”. This is a heretofore unexploited method of voter mobilization. Our experimental design used the full universe of functioning ATMs in Portugal, which benefits from a sophisticated world class...

We present a difference-in-differences analysis of the road safety effects of introducing tolls on SCUT highways in Portugal, a policy motivated purely by financial considerations, as congestion was never an issue. Using negative binomial count models and a comprehensive dataset on all mainland municipalities covering 2008 to 2014, we find that int...

The increasing range and quality of China’s exports is a major development internationally with potentially far-reaching effects. In this paper, on top of the direct labour market effects of imports from China studied in previous research, we also measure the indirect effects stemming from increased export competition in third markets. Our findings...

Increasing obesity-related problems and rising healthcare expenditures have led governments in developed countries to consider the introduction of soda taxes. We study a recent such tax, implemented in Portugal in February 2017 —one of the first soda taxes worldwide that increases with sugar content (0.08 euros per liter for drinks with less than 8...

This paper analyzes the consequences of local fiscal autonomy with respect to political selection. We propose a model of political careers wherein the decisions to become candidates and to seek reelection are both endogenous. Private-sector aptitude and political ability are private information; the latter is revealed to the incumbent during her fi...

The article studies the impact of a switch from free to charged highway provision on firm numbers and private sector employment in a panel of Portuguese municipalities covering the period 2007–2013. It exploits the fact that tolls on certain highways in Portugal were unexpectedly introduced in reaction to the sovereign debt crisis to establish caus...

The increased range and quality of China's exports is a major ongoing development in the international economy with potentially far-reaching effects. In this paper, on top of the direct effects of increased imports from China studied in previous research, we also measure the indirect labour market effects stemming from increased export competition...

The increased range and quality of China's exports is a major ongoing development in the international economy with potentially far-reaching effects. In this paper, we examine the impact of the China's integration in international trade in the Portuguese labour market. On top of the direct effects of increased imports from China studied in previous...

Suicides are a major concern for public health first and foremost because they are an avoidable cause of death. Moreover, they can be an indicator of self-reported emotional satisfaction and a good marker of overall well-being. In this study we examine how different economic and social aspects affected Portuguese suicide rates for more than one hun...