Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer

• Project Manager at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Forests play an essential part in nature conservation and restoration, biodiversity, climate change mitigation and especially the transformation to a low-carbon economy. However, practices to manage forest environments and scale the sustainable use of innovative timber products (nature-based solutions (NBS)) in place of grey infrastructure construc...

This study examines the potential economic and labour market impacts of a hypothetical but plausible migration scenario of 250,000 new migrants inspired by Austria’s experience in 2015. Using the agent-based macroeconomic model developed by Poledna et al. (Eur Econ Rev, 151:104306, 2023. 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104306, the study explores the deta...

Unlabelled: This paper explores how claims for transformative adaptation toward more equitable and sustainable societies can be assessed. We build on a theoretical framework describing transformative adaptation as it manifests across four core elements of the public-sector adaptation lifecycle: vision, planning, institutional frameworks, and inter...

GAR2022 explores how, around the world, structures are evolving to better address systemic risk. The report shows how governance systems can evolve to reflect the interconnected value of people, the planet and prosperity. www.undrr.org/gar2022

This study presents an analysis of risk and resilience perceptions in two villages of Far West Nepal, Sunkuda and Bajedi, located in the upper Karnali River Basin. The area has been affected by deep-seated and shallow landslides, which have had a devastating impact on many rural lives and livelihoods. While both villages are exposed to landslides,...

This study presents an analysis of risk and resilience perceptions in two villages of Far West Nepal, Sunkuda and Bajedi, located in the upper Karnali River Basin. While both villages are exposed to landslides, Bajedi is situated in a higher risk zone. Using structured surveys, semi-structured interviews and insights from stakeholder workshops, the...

Lempert and Turner contribute importantly to the design of decision‐analytical tools for wicked policy issues by acknowledging the centrality of socially determined and often irreconcilable worldviews. Their point of departure is application of the DMDU approach (decision making under deep uncertainty) separately for each contending worldview as po...

There is growing recognition that using the properties of nature through nature-based solutions (NBS) can help to provide viable and cost-effective solutions to a wide range of societal challenges, including disaster risk reduction (DRR). However, NBS realization depends critically on the governance framework that enables the NBS policy process. Dr...

Recent evidence shows that climate change is leading to irreversible and existential impacts on vulnerable communities and countries across the globe. Among other effects, this has given rise to public debate and engagement around notions of climate crisis and emergency. The Loss and Damage (L&D) policy debate has emphasized these aspects over the...

The Policy Business Forum (PBF) consists of Nature-based Solutions (NBS) experts and knowledgeable stakeholders at the international, European, and national scale. The main aim of the PBF is to explore innovative ways to strengthen the science-policy-business nexus in order to exploit opportunities and overcome barriers in NBS implementation in the...

The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the “Warsaw International Mechanism fo...

It is problematic to treat systemic risk as a merely technical problem that can be solved by natural-science methods and through biological and ecological analogies. There appears to be a discrepancy between understanding systemic risk from a natural-science perspective and the unresolved challenges that arise when humans with their initiatives and...

Poor communities in high risk areas are disproportionately affected by disasters compared to their wealthy counterparts; yet, there are few analyses to guide public decisions on pro-poor investments in disaster risk reduction. This paper illustrates an application of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) for assessing investments in structural flood proofing...

The ‘tragedy of the commons’ has been investigated for several decades. At its centre is the question whether a common resource will collapse under over-exploitation. The isolated analysis of one resource has many conceptual benefits, yet in reality resources and welfare are intertwined. In this paper, we investigate a situation where a resource wh...

This chapter asks whether insurance instruments, especially micro-insurance and regional insurance pools, can serve as a risk -reducing and equitable compensatory response to climate-attributed losses and damages from climate extremes occurring in developing countries, and consequently if insurance instruments can serve the preventative and curativ...

The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the “Warsaw International Mechanism fo...

Systemic risk research is gaining traction across diverse disciplinary research communities, but has as yet not been strongly linked to traditional, well-established risk analysis research. This is due in part to the fact that systemic risk research focuses on the connection of elements within a system, while risk analysis research focuses more on...

Policy brief COP 24, December 2018

To satisfy Jordan’s growing demand for electricity and to diversify its energy mix, the Jordanian government is considering a number of electricity-generation technologies that would allow for locally available resources to be used alongside imported energy. Energy policy in Jordan aims to address both climate change mitigation and energy security...

As water-sector professionals re-discover the value in the 'waste' conveyed in 'waste'water, this Viewpoint argues that the theory of plural rationality (also known as Cultural Theory) may accelerate the switch from waste management to resource recovery. Accordingly, it extends the framing of plural rationality, from its traditional applications in...

Games can provide an effective and replicable space in which stakeholders learn skills necessary for deliberative and pluralist policymaking. These skills are especially important for “nexus” policy issues that are typically characterised by multiple, competing problem frames involving overlapping networks of stakeholders. In this position paper, w...

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a new generation of macroeconomic agent-based models (ABMs). The ABM moves beyond the state of the art by explo...

During a participatory process in Gmunden, Austria, the organizational and responsibility-sharing arrangements for a landslide warning system proved to be contested issues. While questions on the warning system technology and the distribution of information, including the alarm for evacuation, could be resolved with the support of experts, controve...

This paper explores warning system options in the landslide-prone community of Gmunden/Gschliefgraben in Upper Austria. It describes stakeholder perspectives on the technical, social, economic, legal and institutional characteristics of a warning system. The perspectives differ on issues such as responsibility allocation in decisions regarding warn...

After extensive flooding in 2002, the European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) was created as an ex post loss-financing vehicle for EU member states and candidate countries in the case of disasters that exceed the government’s resources to cope. The EUSF is viewed as a valuable instrument for pooling risk among countries in Europe and potentially as a...

With the escalating costs of landslides, the challenge for local authorities is to develop institutional arrangements for landslide risk management that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by those affected. For this purpose, the participation of stakeholders in the decision-making process is mandated by the European Union as a way of improv...

Insurance is gaining importance in and beyond the climate negotiations and offers many opportunities to improve climate risk management in developing countries. However, some caution is needed, if current momentum is to lead to genuine progress in making the most vulnerable more resilient to climate change.

This paper demonstrates an innovative role for experts in supporting participatory policy processes with an application to landslide risk management in the Italian town of Nocera Inferiore. Experts co-produce risk mitigation options based on their specialized knowledge taking account of local knowledge and values by directly coupling stakeholder di...

The contemporary global community is increasingly interdependent and confronted with systemic risks posed by the actions and interactions of actors existing beneath the level of formal institutions, often operating outside effective governance structures. Frequently, these actors are human agents, such as rogue traders or aggressive financial innov...

This paper discusses four challenges for mainstreaming climate change into European flood and drought risk management policies within the water and agriculture sectors: the climate change impact challenge; the robust policy challenge; the EU policy maze challenge; and the implementation challenge. We illustrate with examples from the Warta River Ba...

Truly understanding climate-related disaster risk, and the management of that risk, can inform effective action on climate adaptation and the loss and damage mechanism, the main vehicle under the UN Climate Convention for dealing with climate-related effects, including residual impacts after adaptation.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has called for a new balance between reducing the risks from climate extremes and transferring them (for example, through insurance) as means for effectively preparing for and managing disaster impacts in a changing climate. This paper elaborates on this balance with an overview of disaster risk fina...

This chapter describes how an integrated catastrophe model aided a stakeholder policy process focusing on the design of the Hungarian flood insurance system. The process incorporated views on flood insurance held by the public, local authorities, government ministries and private insurers. It was based on extensive interviews, a public survey admin...

In this chapter we provide an introduction to this section of six chapters, which examine how catastrophe models can contribute insights to multi-stakeholder policy processes by focusing on flood risk management in the Hungarian reach of the Upper Tisza river. The flood problem in this vulnerable region remains today acute mainly because of increas...

In this chapter, different concepts of risk and uncertainty are applied to the analysis and management of the risk of flooding along the Vienna River in Vienna, Austria. The methodology illustrates how, by the use of catastrophe models, it is possible to extend traditional engineering-based approaches to flood risk management to integrate loss spre...

Catastrophe models that combine data on past occurrences with future simulations of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability, and that take account of the dynamic environment as well as correlated loss distributions, are becoming increasingly important for assessing the risks of extreme events. This volume demonstrates innovative ways for adapting ca...

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low- and middle-inco...

This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SREX) explores the challenge of understanding and managing the risks of climate extremes to advance climate change adaptation. Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. Changes in the frequency and...

Faced with the possibility of serious contamination at the residential area of Varresbecker Bach, the government of the German City of Wuppertal initiated a unique participatory process for making the difficult decisions involved in cleaning up the site. There are two main features of the Varresbecker Bach Participatory Model: the early involvement...

Th is paper examines the recent experience with insurance and other risk-fi nancing instruments in developing countries in order to gain insights into their eff ectiveness in reducing economic insecuri-ty. Insurance and other risk fi nancing strategies are viewed as eff orts to recover from negative income shocks through risk pooling and transfer....

This paper examines the legitimacy, viability and efficiency of the European Union Solidarity Fund by asking whether the Fund meets its stated purpose of providing solidarity within the EU, whether it is sufficiently capitalized and if it promotes disaster risk reduction in Europe. In examining these questions, we make use of ADAM models of disaste...

Insurance instruments that provide economic security against droughts, floods, tropical cyclones and other weather extremes have emerged as an opportunity for developing countries in their concurrent efforts to reduce their vulnerability to weather variability and adapt to climate change. Yet, issues remain concerning the viability of insurance sys...

By providing financial security against droughts, floods, tropical cyclones and other forms of weather extremes, insurance instruments present an opportunity for developing countries in their concurrent efforts to reduce poverty and adapt to climate change. By pricing risk, insurance provides incentives for reducing risks and adapting to climate ch...

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

Development gains are increasingly at risk from a number of pressures, including climate change. In specific locales around the globe, adverse changes are already being observed in the amount, intensity, frequency and type of precipitation, resulting in drought, floods and tropical storms. Disaster risk is growing as a result of unplanned urbanisat...

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments ca...

In developed countries, public–private partnerships involving insurance companies and governments often provide security against the human and economic losses of disasters. These partnerships, however, are neither available nor affordable in most highly exposed developing countries. In this paper we examine recent innovations in financial risk mana...

Experts frequently differ on their estimates of risk associated with accidents that have a low probability of occurrence. Those who stand to benefit from siting a new facility often perceive it as acceptably safe, using expert opinion to defend their argument. Potential losers find data to suggest that the new technology is too hazardous. This pape...

As a global society, we need to take action not only to prevent the potentially catastrophic effects of climate change but also to adapt to the unavoidable effects of climate change already imposed on the world. Fairness in Adaptation to Climate Change looks at the challenges of ensuring that policy responses to climate change do not place undue an...

This paper suggests a two-tiered climate insurance strategy that would support developing country adaptation to the risks of climate variability and meet the intent of Article 4.8 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The core of this strategy is the establishment of a climate insurance programme specialized in supp...

In Europe, Hungary ranks only behind the Netherlands with respect to flood exposure, and by some estimates flood losses could be in the order of seven to nine per cent of Hungary’s gross domestic product.1 Adding to the scale of the problem, floods appear to be worsening in their intensity and frequency. In view of these increasing losses, the Hung...

The public sector plays a major role in reducing the long-term economic repercussions of disasters by repairing damaged infrastructure and providing financial assistance to households and businesses. If critical infrastructure is not repaired in a timely manner, there can be serious effects on the economy and the livelihoods of the population. The...

With new modeling techniques for estimating and pricing the risks of natural disasters, the donor community is now in a position to help the poor cope with the economic repercussions of disasters by assisting before they happen. Such assistance is possible with the advent of novel insurance instruments for transferring catastrophe risks to the glob...

The Hungarian and Turkish governments have recently implemented national insurance systems to transfer risks from floods and earthquakes, respectively, from households to public insurance pools. To date, neither system has met the expectations of the respective governments in terms of insurance uptake and political support.

With escalating costs of flood mitigation and relief, a challenge for the Hungarian government is to develop a flood mitigation and insurance/relief system that is viewed as efficient and fair by the many stakeholders involved. To aid policymakers in this task, this article reports on a recent study to elicit stakeholder views on flood risk managem...

This article examines the potential of pre- and post-disaster instruments for funding disaster response and recovery and for creating incentives for flood loss mitigation in countries with emerging or transition economies. As a concrete case, we discuss the disaster recovery arrangements following the 1997 flood disaster in Poland. We examine the a...

2000. januar 30-an az Aurul ausztral-roman vegyes vallalat nagybanyai (Baia Mare, Romania) aranykitermelő uzemenek deritőjeből mintegy 100 ezer kobmeternyi ciant es mas toxikus vegyuleteket tartalmazo uledek kerult a Szamos mellekfolyoiba, majd a Szamosba, illetve a Tiszaba. A cianszennyezes dramai okologiai hatasokkal jart, egy rovid időszakra a S...

This report was commissioned by the Natural Disasters Network of the Regional Policy Dialogue. This report constitutes Phase 2 of this project. While the first phase of the study discusses the components of a national system, the second focuses on instruments for financing reconstruction after a disaster. The research compares centralized, governme...

In Europe, Hungary ranks only behind the Netherlands with respect to flood exposure. Over half of the country’s territory, two-thirds of its arable land, and a third of its railways are exposed to riverine, ground water and flash floods. Estimates show that losses from flooding could reach almost a quarter of the GDP of river flood basins, or 7– 9...

Global change in the form of climate warming, demographic developments, land use and capital movements to vulnerable regions will likely contribute to the already increasing human and economic losses from natural disasters. As countries in both the developing and developed world contemplate increasing losses from natural disasters, and as the victi...

The risk evaluation process is integrated with procedures for handling vague and numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. A body of empirical evidence has shown that many managers would welcome new ways of highlighting catastrophic consequences, as well as means to evaluating decision situations involving high risks. When events occur fre...

This paper describes a spatial-dynamic,stochastic optimization model that takes account ofthe complexities and dependencies of catastrophicrisks. Following a description of the general model,the paper briefly discusses a case study of earthquakerisk in the Irkutsk region of Russia. For this purposethe risk management model is customized to explicit...

A body of empirical evidence has shown that many managers would welcome new ways of highlighting catastrophic consequences, as well as means to evaluating decision situations involving high risks. When events occur frequently and their consequences are not severe, it is relatively simple to calculate the risk exposure of an organisation, as well as...

The environmental deterioration of the Danube River basin calls for unprecedented cooperation among the ten riparian and seven non-riparian basin countries, the majority of which are undergoing major economic and political transformations after the breakup of the Soviet Union. This paper discusses the recent legal and institutional developments alo...

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an important methodology for assessing the risks of complex technologies. This paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of PRA. Its application is explored in three different settings: adversarial policy processes, regulatory/licensing procedures, and plant safety audits. It is concluded that PRA is a valu...

In April 1986, the Chernobyl nuclear reactor breached containment and released more than 100 million curies of radioactivity into the environment. The release from this worst case accident, which has been compared to several dozen Hiroshima bombs (Hohenemser and Renn, 1988), conformed little, if at all, to accepted nuclear accident scenarios. To ev...

This paper is motivated by the apparent gap in the recent “risk” literature between understanding individual perceptions and evaluations of technological risks and the ways in which these risks are handled by public institutions. The paper contrasts the accepted (prescriptive) model of individual decision making under uncertainty with the political...

Risk analysis and policy analysis can play important roles in facilitating the siting of potentially hazardous facilities if one recognizes the descriptive features of the decision process. The case of siting a liquified natural gas (LNG) facility in California illustrates the multi-party sequential nature of the process and the role that widely di...

In this paper, we examine the role risk assessments played in a political decision process: the siting of an LNG facility on the California coast. We find that the political process, where the decisions are made sequentially, bears little resemblance to the analyst's perspective, where objectives are traded off under conditions of uncertainty. A de...

This book investigates the decision processes for siting liquified energy gas facilities in West Germany, The Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It considers the role of risk analysis in such decisions. The problems with cultural and political structure in these cases are included.

This ten-chapter collection examines the political, institutional, and social processes underlying public policies on siting questions involving public health and safety risks. Clarifies the analyst's role and suggests reforms that might involve the analyst in increasingly useful roles in social conflicts involving risks to the public. Features Wil...

Plans to import liquefied natural gas into the Netherlands were first drawn up in the early 1970s and resulted in the initiation of studies and discussions on various aspects of LNG technology. The siting question, however, was not an urgent one until 1977, when a contract was signed with the Algerian company Sonatrach to import 4 billion m3 of LNG...