Jo Michell

University of the West of England, Bristol | UWE Bristol · Bristol Business School

The era of dollar-based financial globalisation has seen a steady rise in the use of foreign exchange (FX) swaps. We provide a macrofinancial political economy perspective on the geography of FX swaps, and the spatial effects of central bank policies aimed at taming instabilities associated with the uneven geography of the dollar. First, we analyse...

The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the dominance of what Daniela Gabor calls the Wall Street Consensus (WSC) as the hegemonic approach to sustainable development. Public commitments to “green recoveries” and climate resilience, growing fiscal deficits in the Global South, and new central bank emergency liquidity measures have created more space f...

While it is well established that educational attainment is highly correlated with Brexit voting patterns, the predictive capacity of education has attracted less attention. Using full-sample and split-sample exercises, this paper demonstrates that educational attainment alone can correctly classify over 90% of local authorities by voting outcome i...

It is frequently claimed in the media and in public discourse that deprived parts of the country voted strongly to leave the European Union. Despite the prominence of narratives relying on this claim, little evidence has been presented showing that more deprived places were in fact more likely to vote Leave. The contribution of this paper is to pro...

We build upon the Minskyan concepts of 'thwarting mechanisms' and 'supercycles' to develop a framework for the analysis of the dynamic evolutionary interactions between macrofinancial, institutional and political processes. Thwarting mechanisms are institutional structures that aim to stabilise the macrofinancial system. The effectiveness of such s...

This research note demonstrates that the Index of Multiple Deprivation suffers from rank reversal. We present a simple numerical example and a Monte Carlo analysis for the 2019 English index. We conclude by considering a potential solution to the problem.

Draft chapter on income distribution for a forthcoming textbook on history of economic thought.

Critics of modern monetary theory (MMT) have alleged that its conclusions rely on the “exorbitant privilege” enjoyed by the US in issuing the global reserve currency, and thus do not apply to developing and emerging countries (DECs). MMT proponents deny this but have recently moderated earlier claims with the introduction of the idea of a “spectrum...

Review of the MMT textbook by Mitchell, Wray and Watts

The Brexit vote is the most significant political event in recent British history. We present bivariate choropleth maps comparing the Leave vote share with age-adjusted secondary educational attainment. This provides an immediate visual representation of the spatial and bivariate correlations between these variables, as well as their geographical d...

The role of education in the geography of Brexit is usually examined using descriptive statistics and regression, which are ill-suited to the assessment of predictive capacity. By presenting in-sample and out-of-sample probit classification results, this paper demonstrates that educational attainment alone can correctly classify up to 92.24% of loc...

The rise of the shadow banking system is viewed through the theoretical lens of Graziani's Monetary Theory of Production. Graziani's categories of ‘initial finance’ and ‘final finance’ are used to analyse the new forms of credit created in the shadow banking sector. It is argued that the accumulation of leverage in the shadow banking system and the...

Goodwin cycles result from the dynamic interaction between a profit-led demand regime and a reserve army effect in income distribution. The paper proposes the concept of a pseudo-Goodwin cycle. We define this as a counter-clockwise movement in output and wage share space which is not generated by the usual Goodwin mechanism. In particular, it does...

Unpublished draft manuscript on the business cycle theories of Hayek and Schumpeter. This was written as part of the FESSUD project (http://fessud.eu/)

The term "financialization" is a recognition that finance has come to play a key role on the modern capitalist economy. But users of the term do not agree on its meaning and recognition of the growing scale of finance has not brought about an increased understanding of financial processes. The paper examines the reasons for increased turnover in fi...

Is the international financial architecture debate over? Not according to leading experts gathered together in this impressive volume who try to identify the key trends that will fashion the international financial system in the years ahead. As history has shown, the evolution of the international monetary system is a slow process. However, the aut...

Wynne Godley is best known for his insightful forecasting using stockflow consistent models. His insistence that economic stocks and flows should be consistently laid out was also, if less obviously, an insistence that all economic variables are interrelated. Accordingly, production could not be carried out without distributional implications. More...

El endeudamiento de España, Portugal y Grecia ha crecido en los últimos años debido principalmente a un sector privado que, incapaz de competir con éxito dentro de la zona euro, ha acumulado deuda tanto interna como externa. La deuda total - tanto pública como privada - plantea problemas graves para los bancos de los países del centro de la zona eu...

The sovereign debt crisis that broke out in Greece at the end of 2009 is fundamentally due to the precarious integration of peripheral countries in the eurozone. Its immediate causes, however, lie with the crisis of 2007–2009. Speculative mortgage lending by US financial institutions and trading of resultant derivative securities by international b...