Jinqing Zuo

• China Meteorological Administration

The Yangtze River Valley (YRV) of China experienced record-breaking heatwaves in July and August 2022. The characteristics, causes, and impacts of this extreme event have been widely explored, but its seasonal predictability remains elusive. This study assessed the real-time one-month-lead prediction skill of the summer 2022 YRV heatwaves using 12...

Based on a combination of six Chinese climate models and three international operational models, the China multi-model ensemble (CMME) prediction system has been upgraded into its version 2 (CMMEv2.0) at the National Climate Centre (NCC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) by including new model members and expanding prediction product...

Atlantic Niño, lasting approximately 3 months, manifests as pronounced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic on the interannual time scale. There are two primary types of Atlantic Niño events: one peaking in boreal summer and the other in boreal winter. Sources of dynamical predictability for the two types of At...

Northern Europe and Northeast Asia, which are climatologically mild and temperate in early summer, both witnessed record-breaking heat extremes in June 2023. With a focus on the subseasonal time scale, this study highlights a teleconnected relationship in historical early-summer heat extremes between Northern Europe and Northeast Asia. By diagnosin...

In August 2020, the historical warmest upper‐ocean thermal condition occurred in the western North Pacific (WNP), along with three tropical cyclones (TCs, namely Bavi, Maysak, and Haishen) generated in the WNP and affected Northeast China and the Korea peninsular (KP), within an unprecedentedly short span of 12 days from late August to early Septem...

Recent studies suggest that tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, especially those associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), may trigger Atlantic Niño through atmospheric teleconnection. However, it remains unclear whether the former has an impact on the prediction skill of the latter. This work applies hindcasts from...

Northeast Asian cut-off lows are crucial cyclonic systems that can bring temperature and precipitation extremes over large areas. Skillful subseasonal forecasting of Northeast Asian cut-off lows is of great importance. Using two dynamical forecasting systems, one from the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-CSM2-HR) and the other from the Met Office (GloSe...

A record-breaking heat wave hit the Yangtze River valley during the boreal summer of 2022, and caused severe social and economic losses. One prominent feature of this long-lived heat event was its persistence and abnormal intensification in August. This study investigated the physical mechanisms be responsible for the intensification of this heat e...

In 2021, the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China underwent normal precipitation during the classical Meiyu period in June–July but suffered extreme precipitation and severe floods in August. The present study revealed that the extreme heavy precipitation anomalies over the YHRB region were closely related to the combined effect of the strong...

The Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the tropical Atlantic, maintained primarily by the positive wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature (SST) feedback in which the wind anomalies lead the SST anomalies by ~2 months. A previous study revealed that climate models from Coupled Model Intercompa...

In 2021, the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China underwent nearly normal precipitation during the classical Meiyu period in June–July but suffered extreme precipitation and severe floods in August. Such a remarkable subseasonal variation in the YHRB precipitation anomalies was closely related to the subseasonal change in the western North Pa...

An observational study illustrates that three distinct modes of winter Siberian high variability exist in observations at the inter-annual time scale. In this paper, we compare the connection between these diverse Siberian high variation modes with pre-autumn and simultaneous Eurasian snow cover in an observation and BCC-CSM2-MR coupled climate mod...

Northeast China (NEC) is located between the subtropical monsoon and temperate-frigid monsoon regions and exhibits two successive rainy seasons with different natures: the northeast cold vortex rainy season in early summer (May–June) and the monsoon rainy season in late summer (July–August). Summer rainfall over NEC (NECR) has a fundamental influen...

Northeast China (NEC) is located between the subtropical monsoon and temperate-frigid monsoon regions and exhibits two successive rainy seasons with different natures: the northeast cold vortex rainy season in early summer (May–June) and the monsoon rainy season in late summer (July–August). Summer rainfall over NEC (NECR) has a fundamental influen...

The interannual variability of boreal summer sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic displays two dominant modes, the Atlantic zonal mode highlighting SST variations in the equatorial–southern tropical Atlantic (ESTA) region and the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) mode focusing on SST fluctuations in the NTA region except in the Gul...

This study investigates the prediction of southern China surface air temperature (SAT) in January and February using hindcast and forecast dataset from the second version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEP CFSv2) for the period of 1983–2017. The observed January and February SAT in southern China is t...

Previous studies have revealed that warm (cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) can enhance (weaken) the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) during boreal summer. This study assesses the ability of current atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to simulate such...

An anomalous “north‐south” dipole mode of the snow water equivalent (SWE) persisting from winter to spring is detected over the Eurasian mid‐to‐high latitudes in this study. Using observational data sets and numerical experiments of the Community Atmospheric Model (5.0), we show that this mode contributes to prolonged winter‐springtime coldness in...

How to make an objective combination for the predictions from climate dynamic model and statistical method is an important issue in the short-term climate prediction area. To resolve this problem, we use the optimum interpolation assimilation method to merge the predictions of summer precipitation percentage anomalies in China from CFSv2 model and...

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been shown to manifest as primarily two types, the eastern Pacific (EP) type and central Pacific (CP) type, in terms of the zonal positions of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This study focuses on examining the predictability of the two types of ENSO by developing statistical models for their...

This study uses both observations and numerical modeling experiments to investigate the lead-lag relationship and the associated physical mechanism of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA). The results show that the WNPAC from late spring to the...

Precipitation in southern China during boreal summer (June to August) shows a substantial interdecadal variability on the timescale longer than 8 years. In this study, based on the analysis of singular value decomposition, we diagnose the leading mode of interdecadal covariability between the observational precipitation in southern China and the se...

Rainfall in southern China reaches its annual peak in early summer (May–June) with strong interannual variability. Using a combination of observational analysis and numerical modeling, the present study investigates the leading modes of this variability and its dynamic drivers. A zonal dipole pattern termed the southern China Dipole (SCD) is found...

During the boreal summer from June to August, rainfall in Southwestern China shows substantial interdecadal variabilities on timescales longer than 10 years. Based on observational analyses and numerical modeling, we investigated the characteristics of interdecadal Southwestern China summer rainfall (SWCSR) and its dynamic drivers. We find that the...

During the boreal summer from June to August, rainfall in Southwestern China shows substantial interdecadal variabilities on timescales longer than 10 years. Based on observational analyses and numerical modeling, we investigated the characteristics of interdecadal Southwestern China summer rainfall (SWCSR) and its dynamic drivers. We found that th...

Climate variability modes, usually known as primary climate phenomena, are well recognized as the most important predictability sources in subseasonal–interannual climate prediction. This paper begins by reviewing the research and development carried out, and the recent progress made, at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) in predicting some primary c...

Interdecadal variations in the relationship between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and surface air temperature in China are investigated using observational and reanalysis data. Focus is on south–central China in which temperature variability is strongly related to the NAO. It is revealed that the relationship shows clear interdecadal...

The potential predictability of winter temperature in China from autumn Arctic sea ice anomalies is studied by examining and statistically modeling the large–scale interannual covariability between them on the basis of singular value decomposition analysis. It is demonstrated that an intimate relationship exists between September and October sea ic...

El Niño events developed in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in the spring of both 1991 and 1997. The former began in May and the latter in April. However, a dry summer occurred over the Huanghe-Huaihe valley in 1992, but a wet summer prevailed in 1998. Also, the summer circulation anomalies showed different patterns over the Eurasia-Northwes...

Recent research demonstrated the existence of a combination mode (C-mode) originating from the atmospheric nonlinear interaction between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle. In this paper, we show that the majority of coupled climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are a...

The subseasonal variability and predictability of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) is evaluated using a full set of hindcasts generated from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.2 (BCC_AGCM2.2). It is shown that the predictability of the monthly mean AO/NAO index varies seasonally, wit...

This study evaluates performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC_AGCM2.2). By using the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices, it is shown that the MJO prediction skill of BCC_AGCM2.2 extends to about 16–17days before the bivariate anomaly correlation coeffici...

El Niño-South Oscillation (ENSO), as a dominant mode on the inter-annual variability, has a big implication in short-term climate prediction in China. In the past three decades, significant changes occurred in ENSO phenomenon such as its own properties, types and climate impacts, which have brought a big challenge for climate prediction and disaste...

This article demonstrates that the above-normal Tibetan Plateau snow depth (TPSD) in winter appears to be followed by an intensified Philippine Sea anticyclone in June (PSAC-J), and vice versa. This linkage is clearly independent of the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the PSAC-J. Moreover, winter TPSD anomalies are...

By using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and nonlinear error growth dynamics, the predictability limit of monthly precipitation is quantitatively estimated based on daily observations collected from approximately 500 stations in China for the period 1960–2012. As daily precipitation data are not continuous in space and time, a transformation...

This study investigates the relationship between summer low-frequency rainfall over southern China and tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in atmosphere by examining systematically the propagation features of the tropical ISO in terms of focusing on five large-scale low-frequency rainfall regimes in summer over southern China. It is demonstrat...

Recent research demonstrated the existence of a combination mode (C-mode) originating from the atmospheric nonlinear interaction between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle. In this paper, we show that the majority of coupled climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are a...

By analyzing the monthly mean gauge precipitation data from the 160 stations in China during 1952-2013, this paper reveals a significant rhythm phenomenon in winter and summer precipitations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. That is, if in winter there is less (more) precipitation than the normal over this region, precipitation i...

In the boreal winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) evidently acts to influence surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in China. This study reveals a large intraseasonal variation in the relationship between the winter AO and southern China SAT anomalies. Specifically, a weak in-phase relationship occurs in December, but a significant out-of-phase r...

Using the daily precipitation dataset covering southern China and the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data for the period 1961-2011, the intra-seasonal and inter-decadal variations of the low-frequency rainfall regimes over southern China in summer are investigated. Five rainfall regimes (RRs) generated from the 10 day low-pass filtered data are identif...

Abstract：In ocean climate models, the parameterization schemes of vertical mixing processes are introduced. Firstly, the corresponding physical issues, theoretical basis, numerical expressions and characteristics of various vertical mixing parameterization schemes are introduced, and the evolutions of different schemes are shown. Secondly, the late...

This work examined the performance of 26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the simulation of the present-day temporal variability and spatial pattern of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The results show that most models are able to capture the spatial distribution and va...

The temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) simulated in the historical experiment of 26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are evaluated. Spectral analysis of the monthly AO index indicates that 23 out of the 26 CMIP5 models exhibit no statistically sign...

A strong (weak) East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is usually concurrent with the tripole pattern of North Atlantic SST anomalies on the interannual timescale during summer, which has positive (negative) SST anomalies in the northwestern North Atlantic and negative (positive) SST anomalies in the subpolar and tropical ocean. The mechanisms responsibl...

The relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was examined by using correlation analysis for the period from 1948 to 2009. The result shows that the EASM was well correlated with the preceding spring (April-May) NAO on the annual timescale. But their relationship was characterized by large decada...

Arid and semi-arid areas of the Loess Plateau over northwestern China are one of the dust aerosol source regions featured by its unique underlying surface. These areas, suffering the severe aridity trend in past decades, are also known as the transitional zone of climate and ecosystem change. To better understand the basic characteristics of the la...

利用2008年7月兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测(SACOL)站的观测资料,对比分析了地表土壤热通量的三种计算方法,即谐波法、温度预报校正法(TDEC法)以及结合自校正热通量板(HFP01SC)测量的温度积分法(ITHP法);进而分析了三种不同方法的计算结果对地表能量平衡的影响。比较5cm深度处谐波法和TDEC法的计算结果与HFP01SC的实测结果,三者的相位基本一致,相互之间均具有很好的线性关系;谐波法与TDEC法的计算值较为接近,但分别比HFP01SC的实测值偏大了2%和6%(主要发生在夜间)。对于地表的土壤热通量(G0),谐波法与TDEC法两者的计算结果仅偏差约1%;TDEC法与ITHP法的计算结果之间也具有很好的线性关系(R2=0.99),但偏差达到9%左右。相对于HFP01SC的实测...

The intraseasonal characteristics of the water vapor transport associated with two low-frequency rainfall regimes over southern China in summer is investigated by composite analysis on historical cases using the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for the period 1962-2006. The one of the rainfall regimes is the South of the Yangtze River (SY) regime...

In order to provide high quality data for climate change studies, the data quality of turbulent flux measurements at the station of SACOL (Semi-Arid Climate & Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University), which is located on a semi-arid grassland over the Loess Plateau in China, has been analyzed in detail. The effects of different procedures of...

Arid and semi-arid areas comprise about 30% of the earth’s surface. Changes in climate and climate variability will likely have a significant impact on these regions. The Loess Plateau over Northwest China is a special semi-arid land surface and part of a dust aerosol source. To improve understanding and capture the direct evidence of the impact of...