Jianpeng Xiao

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention · Institute of Public Health

The number of infections has increased rapidly following the first case and led to 5 generations of transmission in 10 days. We investigated the key transmission parameters for this outbreak. The result showed that the mean incubation period was 4.4 days which was shorter than that reported by Li et al. (4.4 vs. 5.2) in Wuhan City, Hubei Province,...

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the major threats to human health, and may partly responsible for intentional self-harm deaths, while the limited results seemed contradictory. Further analysis on PM2.5 constituents may provide more reliable evidence. Heavy metals are crucial toxic components of PM2.5 that may induce suicide behavior. What...

To evaluate the variations in COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) across different regions and waves, and the impact of public health interventions, social and economic characteristics, and demographic factors on COVID-19 CFRs, we collected data from 30 countries with the highest incidence rate in three waves. We summarized the CFRs of different co...

Background From January 2020 to June 2022, strict interventions against COVID-19 were implemented in Guangdong Province, China. However, the evolution of COVID-19 dynamics remained unclear in this period. Objectives This study aims to investigate the evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong, specifically during the impl...

Objectives The prevention and control of dengue fever (DF) has been a major public health issue in Guangdong (GD) province, China. This study aims to analyze the return period (RP) and the return level (RL) of DF epidemic in GD, to help the formulation of prevention and control plan. Methods Three models, namely Lognormal distribution (Lognor D.),...

Background The incidence of rabies exposure is high and increasing in China, leading to an urgent demand of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) clinics for the injured. However, the spatial accessibility and inequality of rabies-exposed patients to rabies PEP clinics is less known in China. Methods Based on rabies exposure data, PEP clinic data...

Background: Few previous stud ies ha ve examined the joint effect of long term exposure to temperature and relative humidity ( RH on ast hma This study endeavors t o explore the combined association between long term co exposure to temperature and R H and asthma in China. Methods: The individual data of asthma were collected from the wave 1 to wave...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant excess mortality globally. However, the differences in excess mortality between the Omicron and non-Omicron waves, as well as the contribution of local epidemiological characteristics, population immunity, and social factors to excess mortality, remain poorly understood. This study aims t...

Background The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 may have affected the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). We aimed to assess the impact of the NPIs on HFMD in the high epidemic area of HFMD, Guangdong Province. Methods The data of HFMD cases, etiological information, and meteorological factors in Guangdong...

Global COVID-19 vaccination programs effectively contained the fast spread of SARS-CoV-2. Characterizing the immunity status of returned populations will favor understanding the achievement of herd immunity and long-term management of COVID-19 in China. Individuals were recruited from 7 quarantine stations in Guangzhou, China. Blood and throat swab...

BACKGROUND Background: From January 2020 to June 2022, strict public health interventions against COVID-19 were implemented in Guangdong Province, China. OBJECTIVE Objectives: This study aims to investigate the evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong Province in this period. METHODS Methods: Data of COVID-19 cases and...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant excess mortality globally. However, the differences in excess mortality between the Omicron and non-Omicron waves, as well as the contribution of local epidemiological characteristics, population immunity, and social factors to excess mortality, remain poorly understood. This study aims t...

Drowning is a serious public health problem in the world. Several studies have found that ambient temperature is associated with drowning, but few have investigated the effect of heatwave on drowning. This study aimed to explore the associations between heatwave and drowning mortality, and further estimate the mortality burden of drowning attribute...

Background: Drowning is a serious public health problem worldwide. Previous epidemiological studies on the association between meteorological factors and drowning mainly focused on individual weather factors, and the combined effect of mixed exposure to multiple meteorological factors on drowning is unclear. Objective: We aimed to investigate th...

Evidence on the spatial-temporal distribution of TB mortality across China and its relationship with long-term PM2.5 exposure is limited. We aimed to address significant gaps in our understanding of the spatial-temporal clustering patterns of tuberculosis mortality in China and provide evidence for its causal links with long-term PM2.5 exposure. An...

Background: Although emerging studies have illuminated the protective association between greenness and respiratory mortality, efforts to quantify the potentially complex role of air pollution in the causal pathway are still limited. We aimed to examine the potential roles of air pollution in the causal pathway between greenness and respiratory mo...

Predicting the specific magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic of individual local outbreaks is critical for infectious disease control. Previous studies have indicated that significant differences in spatial transmission and epidemic magnitude of dengue were influenced by multiple factors, such as mosquito population density, climatic con...

Although studies have estimated the associations of PM2.5 with total mortality or cardiopulmonary mortality, few have comprehensively examined cause-specific mortality risk and burden caused by ambient PM2.5. Thus, this study investigated the association of short-term exposure to PM2.5 with cause-specific mortality using a death-spectrum wide assoc...

What is already known about this topic?: A considerable percentage of the population has received both primary and booster vaccinations, which could potentially provide protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron infections and related symptoms. What is added by this report?: The self-reported infectio...

Introduction Evidence on the interaction of lifestyle and long-term ambient particle (PM) exposure on the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, particularly their combined condition is limited. We investigate the associations between PM and these outcomes and whether the associations were modified by various lifestyles. Methods This was a large po...

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is associated with long-term particulate matter (PM) exposure. However, evidence from large, highly-exposed population cohort and observational-data-based causal inference approaches remains limited. Aims: We examined the potential causal links between PM exposure and the CVD mortality in South...

Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) is a mosquito from Asia that can transmit a variety of diseases. This paper aimed to explore the effects of temperature, relative humidity, and illumination on the entomological parameters related to the population growth of Aedes albopictus, and provide specific parameters for developing dynamic models of mosq...

BACKGROUND Drowning is a serious public health problem worldwide. Previous epidemiological studies on the association between meteorological factors and drowning mainly focused on individual weather factors, and the combined effect of mixed exposure to multiple meteorological factors on drowning is unclear. OBJECTIVE We aimed to investigate the co...

We developed a mechanism model which allows for simulating the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission dynamics with the combined effects of human adaptive behaviours and vaccination, aiming at predicting the end time of COVID-19 infection in global scale. Based on the surveillance information (reported cases and vaccination data) between 22 Janu...

Background The association between long-term particulate matter (PM) exposure and all-cause mortality has been well-documented. However, evidence is still limited from high-exposed cohorts, especially for PM1 which is smaller while more toxic than other commonly investigated particles. We aimed to examine the potential casual links of long-term PMs...

Background: Mass basic and booster immunization programs effectively contained the spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, also known as COVID-19. However, the emerging Variants of Concern (VOCs) of COVID-19 evade the immune protection of the vaccine and increase the risk of reinfection. Methods: Serum a...

Injury poses heavy burden on public health, accounting for nearly 8% of all deaths globally, but little evidence on the role of climate change on injury exists. We collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to examine the effects of temperature on injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature chan...

Background: Studies have estimated the associations of short-term exposure to ambient air pollution with ischemic stroke. However, the joint associations of ischemic stroke with air pollution as a mixture remain unknown. Methods: We employed a time-stratified case-crossover study to investigate 824,808 ischemic stroke patients across China. We c...

Objectives: Numerous studies have shown a positive relationship between temperature variability and mortality, but few studies have investigated the effect of temperature variability on blood pressure (BP). We aimed to estimate the effect of temperature variability on BP in Guangdong Province, southern China. Methods: Data on meteorological fact...

Background: Meteorological exposures are well-documented factors underlying the dengue pandemics, and air pollution was reported to have the potential to change the behaviors and health conditions of mosquitos. However, it remains unclear whether air pollution could modify the association of meteorological exposures and the incidence of dengue feve...

Background In May 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant led to the first local outbreak in China in Guangzhou City. We explored the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering of this outbreak. Methods Based on the 153 cases in the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak, the Knox test was used to analyze the spatial-temporal clustering...

Background Research is lacking in examining how multiple climate factors affect the incidence of seasonal influenza. We investigated the associations between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), meteorological factors, and influenza incidence in New York State, United States. Method We collected emergency department visit data for influenza from t...

Background Although many studies have reported the mortality effect of temperature, there were few studies on the mortality risk of humidity, let alone the joint effect of temperature and humidity. This study aimed to investigate the joint and interaction effect of high temperature and relative humidity on mortality in China, which will deepen unde...

Introduction: Although helminth infections threaten millions of people worldwide, the spatiotemporal characteristics remain unclear across China. This study systematically describes the spatiotemporal changes of major human helminth infections and their epidemiological characteristics from 1988 to 2021 in Guangdong Province, China. Methods: The...

Enterovirus A71 (EV71) vaccination program was introduced in 2016 in China. Based on a longitudinal surveillance dataset from 2012 to 2019 in Guangdong, China, we estimated the impact of the EV71 vaccination program on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence, by using a counterfactual prediction made from synthetic control approach integrate...

E-waste handling activities release large quantities of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and halogen flame retardants (HFRs) into the surrounding area, creating a high exposure risk for local residents. However, the possibility of PCBs and HFRs exposure contributing to renal injury has not been extensively studied. To fill this knowledge gap, we co...

We developed a deterministic model with multiple compartments by a system of differential equations, which allows for simulating novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission dynamics with human adaptive behaviors and vaccine effects, aiming at predicting the end time of COVID-19 infection in global scale. Based on the surveillance information (reporte...

Zika virus (ZIKV) recently reemerged in the Americas and rapidly expanded in global range. It is posing significant concerns of public health due to its link to birth defects and its complicated transmission routes. Southeast Asia is badly hit by ZIKV, but limited information was found on the transmission potential of ZIKV in the region. In this pa...

Varicella is a rising public health issue. Several studies have tried to quantify the relationships between meteorological factors and varicella incidence but with inconsistent results. We aim to investigate the impact of temperature and relative humidity on varicella, and to further explore the effect modification of these relationships. In this s...

Background As climate change, compound hot extremes (CHEs), daytime and nighttime persistent hot extremes, are projected to become much more frequent and intense, which may pose a serious threat to human health. However, evidence on the impact of CHEs on injury is rare. Methods We collected injury death data and daily meteorological data from six...

As a common vector-borne disease, dengue fever remains challenging to predict due to large variations in epidemic size across seasons driven by a number of factors including population susceptibility, mosquito density, meteorological conditions, geographical factors, and human mobility. An ensemble forecast system for dengue fever is first proposed...

Background Although studies have investigated the association between early‐life exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and childhood asthma/wheezing, results are inconsistent and the susceptible exposure window remains largely unknown. Methods A prospective birth cohort study was conducted to recruit pregnant women during their early pregnan...

Background: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with mortality risk, yet the heterogeneity of temperature-attributable mortality burden across subnational regions in a country was rarely investigated. We estimated the mortality burden related to non-optimal temperatures across all provinces in China in 2019. Methods: The global daily tempera...

Background Little is known about the association between polluting cooking fuel and depression among older adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Objective To evaluate the association between polluting cooking fuel and depression in older population of LMICs. Methods We derived data from WHO Study on global AGEing and adult he...

Ozone (O3) exposure may lead to the development and exacerbation of asthma or wheezing in postnatal children; however, it has rarely been studied before and during pregnancy. Wheezing is one of the most common symptoms when diagnosing of asthma; thus, we investigated the associations of O3 exposure before and during pregnancy with wheezing in presc...

The COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing in the world, the risk of COVID-19 spread from other countries or in the country will exist for a long term in China. In the routine prevention and control phase, a number of local COVID-19 epidemics have occurred in China, most COVID-19 cases were sporadic ones, but a few case clusters or outbreaks were repor...

Objective: To analyze the course of disease and epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and provide evidence for making prevention and control strategies. Methods: To display the distribution of course of disease of the infectors who had close contacts with COVID-19 cases from January 1 to March 15, 2020 in Guangdong Provincial, the models of Lognor...

Importance The ongoing pandemic of COVID-19 is still affecting our life, but the effects of lockdown measures on gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in pregnant women remain unclear. Aim To investigate the association between COVID-19 lockdown and GDM. Subjects and Methods Medical records of 140844 pregnant women during 2015-2020 were extracted f...

Background Several studies have investigated the associations between temperature variability (TV) and death counts. However, evidence of TV-attributable years of life lost (YLL) is scarce. Objectives To investigate the associations between TV and YLL rates (/100,000 population), and quantify average life loss per death (LLD) caused by TV in China...

Introduction: With the large-scale roll-out of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccination effort (a vaccine dose given 6 months after completing primary vaccination) in China, we explore when and how China could lift non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 in 2022. Methods: Using a modified susceptible-infectio...

Background The Spring Festival is one of the most important traditional festivals in China. This study aimed to estimate the mortality risk attributable to the Spring Festival. Methods Between 2013 and 2017, daily meteorological, air pollution, and mortality data were collected from 285 locations in China. The Spring Festival was divided into thre...

Heavy metals play an important role in inducing fine particulate matter (PM2.5) related cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, most of the past researches concerned the associations between CVD mortality and the PM2.5 mass, which may not reveal the CVD mortality risk contributed by heavy metals in PM2.5. This study explored the correlations between...

Background Particulate matter (PM) pollution is a well-known risk factor of stroke. However, little is known about the association between PM1 (aerodynamic diameter ≤ 1.0 μm) and stroke. We estimated the associations of short-term exposure to PM1 with hospital admission and recurrence of stoke in China. Methods Stroke data were derived from the Ch...

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has spread rapidly worldwide. To provide data on its virological profile, we here report the first local transmission of Delta in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of quarantined individuals indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, wh...

The association between temperature and mortality has been widely investigated, however, studies on the effects of central heating on mortality risk are sparse. We applied a variant of difference-in-differences (DID) approach to assess the effects of central heating on winter mortality in China, and further analyzed the modification effect of centr...

Dengue fever is regarded as the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans. However, information of dengue virus (DENV) infection in pregnant women and the influence factors remain unclear. In this study, we extracted information of 2,076 pregnant women from the Prenatal Environment and Offspring Health (PEOH) birth cohort conducted sinc...

Background Short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases the excess risk (ER) of deaths. The metals are important constituents that are responsible for health risks of PM2.5. However, the short-term mortality risks that are associated with individual PM2.5-bound metals are not comprehensively understood. Objective Estimate the s...

Background The effects of COVID-19 lockdown measures on maternal and fetal health remain unclear. We examined the associations of COVID-19 lockdown with gestational length and preterm birth (PTB) in a Chinese population. Methods We obtained medical records of 595,396 singleton live infants born between 2015 and 2020 in 5 cities in Guangdong Provin...

The short-term effects of ambient temperature on mortality have been widely investigated. However, the epidemiological evidence on the long-term effects of temperature on mortality is rare. In present study, we conducted a nationwide quasi-experimental design, which based on a variant of difference-in-differences (DID) approach, to examine the asso...

Background: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are public health measures that aim to suppress the transmission of infectious diseases, including border restrictions, quarantine and isolation, community management, social distancing, face mask usage, and personal hygiene. This research aimed to assess the co-benefits of NPIs against COVID-19 on...

Although studies have investigated the associations between PM2.5 and mortality risk, evidence from rural areas is scarce. We aimed to compare the PM2.5-mortality associations between urban cities and rural areas in China. Daily mortality and air pollution data were collected from 215 locations during 2014–2017 in China. A two-stage approach was em...

Background: Numerous studies have found a positive relationship between temperature variability and mortality, but few studies regarding the effects of temperature variability on blood pressure (BP) are available. Objective: To investigate the effects of temperature variability on BP in Guangdong province, southern China. Methods: Data on Meteorolo...