Jesus Otero

Jesus Otero
Universidad del Rosario | UR · Faculty of Economics

PhD

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79
Publications
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935
Citations

Publications

Publications (79)
Article
Full-text available
We study the effect of price variations over time and across space on search intensity and search time by consumers in retail markets for diesel in France. The main contribution of the paper is that existing work in industrial organisation in this area has already studied the effect of such variability on the first measure of search but not on the...
Article
This paper offers new insights into Beveridge curve analysis by modelling the unemployment–vacancy rate relationship at state‐level within a pairwise environment in which the unemployment rate in one state is inversely related to the vacancy rate in another. We find that Beveridge curve shifting, or matching efficiency, is driven by factors that in...
Article
Full-text available
Este documento ilustra la utilización de técnicas de la ciencia de datos para la creación y análisis de una base con información de precios y características de venta o arriendo de casas o apartamentos en las principales ciudades de Colombia. Se espera que esta nueva base de datos, que sigue siendo actualizada, se pueda convertir en el futuro en un...
Article
Against a background of financial liberalisation reforms, we assess the extent of market integration and competition in Colombian retail deposits and loans markets. We employ a dataset comprising bank-level interest rate data for different financial products across a range of banks. We utilise and further develop the Phillips and Sul convergence cl...
Article
We investigate the extent of convergence club formation in local house prices. Our study is novel in a number of key ways. First, new insights are obtained through utilising a large disaggregated panel dataset comprising multiple types of housing (detached, semi-detached, terraced housing and flats) for a very large sample of 348 England and Wales...
Article
We carry out a (partial) replication exercise of Chang and Lee (2015) unit root and cointegration analyses of crude oil spot and futures prices. In doing so, we offer an updated and expanded analysis based on a much wider set of oil futures series than that considered by Chang and Lee, and we consider the impact of different temporal aggregation me...
Article
We examine the extent of spatial market integration in Colombia using consumer price index data for 153 consumer goods in 13 cities. An econometric analysis of the time-series properties of all the possible city price differentials reveals that market integration tends to occur more frequently in unprocessed food products, as opposed to processed f...
Article
We employ a pair-wise approach to analyse regional integration in the gasoline and ethanol markets in Brazil. Using weekly price data for these two fuels at the state level over a period of almost ten years, we find that more than half of the fuel price differentials are stationary, which reveals the importance of allowing for spatial consideration...
Article
We investigate the long-run convergence of house prices across the London boroughs based on a pairwise unit root probabilistic testing procedure. In sharp contrast to the earlier literature, we employ a dataset that distinguishes between four different types of property in each borough. Using a quarterly dataset that spans from 1995 to 2014, we fin...
Article
We use station-level daily price observations collected over a period of eight years to study the extent of diesel market integration in France. The empirical analysis starts off by examining the time-series properties of diesel price ratios, and then assesses how geographical separation and petrol station characteristics affect the speed of adjust...
Article
Full-text available
We examine long-run house price convergence across the twenty Paris districts using a quarterly dataset that spans from 1991 to 2014. Our approach is based on two stages. In the first stage, we apply methods of unit root testing. Our econometric modelling exercise adopts a pair wise approach that is built on a probabilistic test for convergence bas...
Article
We address the noted puzzle that despite increased capital mobility, international consumption risk sharing appears to be very limited. For all possible country pairings, we measure idiosyncratic consumption as the difference between national real per capita consumption expenditures. Using a pair-wise framework based on the time-series properties o...
Article
Using a sample of Colombian banks, we examine retail interest rate adjustment in response to changes in wholesale interest rates. Interest rate pass through running from wholesale to retail rates is found to be both partial and heterogeneous across banks. This suggests that the effectiveness of monetary policy is limited. Further investigation reve...
Article
This paper applies a pairwise approach to investigate the validity of the law of one price in the crude oil markets. Price differentials appear smaller between crude oil pairs with similar physical/chemical characteristics and also for pairs within OPEC.
Article
Full-text available
We propose a pairwise procedure to test the Feldstein-Horioka condition of capital mobility. In contrast to the existing approach, we explicitly examine the relationship between domestic investment and foreign savings rather than domestic savings. In terms of addressing the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, our results based on a panel of OECD and emerging...
Article
We adopt time-series and cross-section methods to analyse long-term relationships between pairs of crude oil prices and assess how physical and institutional factors affect their speed of reaction to exogenous shocks. Using a methodological approach which does not require identifying specific crudes as benchmarks, we shows that the overwhelming maj...
Article
Long-run income convergence is investigated in the U.S. context. We employ a novel pairwise econometric procedure based on a probabilistic definition of convergence. The time-series properties of all the possible regional income pairs are examined by means of unit root and non-cointegration tests, where inference is based on the fraction of rejecti...
Article
Full-text available
We re-examine two complementary views of international capital mobility using data for 25 OECD countries over the period 1970-2011. Estimation of the original Feldstein-Horioka and Sachs equations provides mixed evidence of capital mobility, though we do not detect a significant bias towards finding in favour of capital immobility in using time-ave...
Article
Long-run income convergence is investigated in the U.S. context. We employ a novel pairwise econometric procedure based on a probabilistic definition of convergence. The time-series properties of all the possible regional income pairs are examined by means of unit root and non-cointegration tests, where inference is based on the fraction of rejecti...
Article
We apply a pair-wise approach to test the law of one price for deposit (lending) rates in Colombia. We find that when banks are of different sizes, deposit rates adjust quickly, suggesting a competitive environment. By contrast, lending rates adjust rapidly when banks are of similar sizes, supporting market segmentation.
Article
This paper employs a pair-wise approach to examine regional integration in the US gasoline market. Using gasoline price data at the state level over a period of more than two decades, we find strong support for the view that the law of one price holds in regional markets, as more than 80% of bivariate price differentials turn out to be stationary....
Article
This paper estimates response surface coefficients for a large range of quantiles of the cross-sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS) test of Pesaran (2007), for different specifications of the deterministic components. An Excel programme is available to calculate the P value associated with a CIPS test statistic.
Article
This study focusses on whether the geographical separation of markets constitutes a factor that helps explain the dynamics of agricultural prices. To do this, the authors employ a highly disaggregated dataset for Colombia that consists of weekly observations on wholesale prices for 18 agricultural products traded in markets scattered around the cou...
Article
Existing panel data studies of real interest parity are either unable to identify which panel members are characterised by stationary real interest differentials, or are subject to size distortion resulting from the presence of structural breaks and cross-sectional dependencies. Using a panel stationarity testing procedure recently advocated by Had...
Article
The stationarity of OECD real exchange rates over the period 1972-2008 is tested using a panel of twenty six member countries. The methodology followed stems from the need to meet several key concerns: (i) the identification of which panel members are stationary; (ii) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries in the panel; and...
Article
In this paper we examine long-run house price convergence across US states using a novel econometric approach advocated by Pesaran (2007) and Pesaran et al. (2009). Our empirical modelling strategy employs a probabilistic test statistic for convergence based on the percentage of unit root rejections among all state house price differentials. Using...
Article
The validity of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is examined for a sample of Asian countries. A panel stationarity testing procedure is employed that addresses both structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence. Asian term structures are found to be stationary and supportive of the expectations hypothesis. Further analysis sugge...
Article
This paper calculates response surface models for a large range of quantiles of the Leybourne (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 57:559–571, 1995) test for the null hypothesis of a unit root against the alternative of (trend) stationarity. The response surface models allow the estimation of critical values for different combinations of number of observations, T,...
Article
Full-text available
This document examines the time-series properties of the wage differentials that arise between the public and private sector in Colombia during the sample period 1984 to 2005. We find conflicting results in unit-root and stationarity tests when looking at wage differentials at an aggregate level (such as for men, women or both). However, when we an...
Conference Paper
The neoclassical prediction of long-run convergence is investigated by employing a novel pair-wise econometric procedure. Within this framework, a probabilistic definition of convergence is proposed and forms the basis of the test. We distinguish between the case of strong convergence, where the cointegrating vector is [1, -1] and that of weak conv...
Article
Full-text available
This study examines the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis using a panel of 24 commodity prices from 1900 to 2010. The modelling approach stems from the need to meet two key concerns: (1) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among commodity prices; and (2) the identification of potential structural breaks. To address these concerns, the Hadri and...
Article
In this paper, we test for the stationarity of EU current account deficits. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit-root panel data testing, namely (i) the identification of which panel members are stationary, and (ii) the presence of cross-sectional dependence. For this purpose, we employ an AR-based bootstrap approach...
Article
Full-text available
This paper investigates the evolution of electricity prices for domestic customers in the UK following the introduction of competition. The empirical analysis is based on a panel data set containing detailed information about electricity supply prices over the period 1999 to 2006. The analysis examines the pricing patterns and draws inferences conc...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this paper, we test for the stationarity of unemployment rates in Colombia over the period 1984Q1 to 2004Q4, using a panel of seven cities. Our testing strategy addresses key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely the presence of serial correlation and cross-sectional dependency across the unemployment rates in the panel. T...
Article
Full-text available
This paper uses Colombian household survey data collected over the 1984-2005 period to estimate Gini coefficients and their corresponding standard errors. We find a statistically significant increase in wage income inequality following the adoption of the liberalization measures during the early 1990s, and mixed evidence from the recovery years tha...
Article
In this paper, we test for the stationarity of European Union budget deficits over the period 1971 to 2006, using a panel of thirteen member countries. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (i) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries in the panel and (ii) the ident...
Article
In this paper, we test for the stationarity of European Union budget deficits over the period 1971–2006, using a panel of thirteen member countries. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (1) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries in the panel and (2) the identific...
Article
In this paper, we test for the stationarity and sustainability of European Union budget deficits over the period 1971 to 2006, using a panel of thirteen member countries. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (i) the identication of which members-states are stationary, and (ii) the prese...
Article
In this paper, we test for the stationarity of European Union budget deficits over the period 1971 to 2006, using a panel of thirteen member countries. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (i) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries in the panel and (ii) the ident...
Article
Full-text available
This paper proposes a simple ordered probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not r...
Article
Full-text available
This paper applies stationarity tests to examine evidence of market integration for a relatively large sample of food products in Colombia. We fi…nd little support for market integration when using the univariate KPSS tests for stationarity. However, within a panel context and after allowing for cross sectional dependence, the Hadri tests provide m...
Article
This paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functi...
Article
The cross-sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS) test of Pesaran (2007) is extended for a three-dimensional (3D) panel. This 3D-CIPS test is correctly sized. However, a bootstrapped IPS test has better power performance than the 3D-CIPS, except for high levels of cross-sectional dependency.
Article
Full-text available
This paper generalises the monthly seasonal unit root tests of Franses (1991) for a heterogeneous panel following the work of Im, Pesaran, and Shin (2003), which we refer to as the F-IPS tests. The paper presents the mean and variance necessary to yield a standard normal distribution for the tests, for different number of time observations, T, and...
Article
Full-text available
This paper applies the Hadri (2000) tests for the null of panel stationar-ity to re-examine evidence on mean-reversion of ination rates for a group of 13 OECD countries. Applying individual tests for stationarity, we …nd sup-port for the view that ination rates appear to be non-stationary processes. However, within a panel context the previous resu...
Article
This paper presents two alternative methods for modifying the HEGY-IPS test in the presence of cross-sectional dependency. In general, the bootstrap method (BHEGY-IPS) has greater power than the method suggested by Pesaran (2007) (CHEGY-IPS), although for large T and high degree of cross-sectional dependency the CHEGY-IPS test dominates the BHEGY-I...
Article
Full-text available
This paper studies the dynamics of lending and deposit rates in two emerging markets in Latin America: Colombia and Mexico. The dynamics of lending (deposit) interest rates are driven by the exogenous interbank interest rate and deviations from the long-run lending-interbank (deposit-interbank) interest rate relationship. Allowing for different int...
Article
Full-text available
Technological innovation and the decreasing costs of wireless and other technologies, combined with progressive policy and regulatory environments, have resulted in the provision of telecommunication services in remote areas thought unserviceable by incumbent telcos in Latin America, Central Europe, and Asia. In line with the increasing number of s...
Article
In this paper, we test for the stationarity of EU current account deficits. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (i) the identification of which members-states are stationary, and (ii) the presence of cross-sectional dependence. For this purpose, we employ a moving block bootstrap appro...
Article
Full-text available
This article examines the linkage between two parallel stock exchanges trading the same shares in Colombia, namely the Bogota Stock Exchange and the Medellin Stock Exchange. We provide empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that these two markets can be best described as fully integrated over a period of almost four decades, which is consiste...
Article
In this paper we model the Colombian inflation rate in terms of excess demand effects from asset, goods and factor markets. In contrast to previous results for a group of industrial economies, we find that domestic factors are a far more powerful influence on inflation than are external factors. The paper pays particular attention to the potential...
Article
Full-text available
The panel variant of the KPSS tests developed by Hadri (2000) for the null of stationarity suffers from size distortions in the presence of cross section dependence. However, applying the bootstrap methodology we find that these tests are approximately correctly sized.
Article
This paper uses the approach of Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to propose seasonal unit root tests for dynamic heterogeneous panels based on the means of the individuals HEGY test statistics. The standardised t-bar and F-bar statistics are simply averages of the HEGY tests across groups. These statistics converge to standard normal variates.
Article
This paper estimates linear and non-linear error correction models for the spot prices of four different coffee types. In line with economic priors, we find some evidence that when prices are too high, they move back to equilibrium more slowly than when they are too low. This may reflect the fact that, in the short run, it is easier for countries t...
Article
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We investigate the effects of outliers on the KPSS tests. We find that for nonstationary series outliers induce spurious stationarity by lowering the power of these tests. The empirical size of these tests is also found to be sensitive to the location of the outlier.
Article
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This paper estimates an asymmetric error correction model to analyse the dynamic behaviour of the Colombian unemployment rate. It is found that wages above their long-run equilibrium level do increase unemployment, but wages below this level do not reduce it. This finding provides evidence of the existence of hysteresis in the Colombian unemploymen...
Article
We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a non-linear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling...
Article
Full-text available
We examine the effects of seasonal adjustment filters on the size and power of ADF and PP residual-based cointegration tests via a Monte Carlo and an empirical application. Our results indicate that the use of filters distorts the size and reduces the power of these tests.
Article
In this paper, we investigate the dynamic evolution of tariffs in telecommunications, gas, airports, electricity and water in England and Wales. We carry out a statistical analysis of the tariffs charged by the companies, which have been subject to a price-cap since privatisation. The period covered, between 1976 and 1998, allows us to investigate...
Article
The nonlinear behaviour of four coffee price series is examined, that is, unwashed Arabicas (i.e. coffee from Brazil), Colombian Mild Arabicas (i.e. coffee from Colombia), other Mild Arabicas (i.e. coffee from other Latin American countries), and Robusta coffee (i.e. coffee from Africa and Southeast Asia). First is identified the cointegrating rela...
Article
Full-text available
We investigate the inflation rate in Colombia in terms of excess money, excess demand, deviations from PPP, and wage inflation. In contrast to previous results for a group of industrial economias, we find that domestic factors are a far more powerful influence on inflation than are external factors. We also find evidence of non-linear price behavio...
Article
Full-text available
This paper studies the dynamics of lending and deposit rates in four emerging markets in Latin America: Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. The dynamics of interest rates exhibit a regime-switching behavior, where the transition from one regime to the other is controlled by the interest rate spread difference. The first regime, which is characte...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper we look at the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The existence of cointegration between the parallel and official exchange rates in Colombia is consistent with previous findings for other developing econom...
Article
The theoretical models that analyse the monetary consequences of export booms show that under a regime of fixed exchange rates, they affect not only the demand for money, via real income, but also the money supply via foreign exchange accumulation. Within this theoretical framework, this study proposes an empirical approach to determine whether the...
Article
We investigate long-run relationships among the spot prices of four coffee types. Two cointegrating vectors emerge: one between the prices of Arabica coffee varieties, and the other one between Unwashed Arabicas and Robusta. A persistence profile analysis shows a more rapid adjustment to equilibrium for the first compared to the second vector due t...
Article
Full-text available
We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a non-linear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling...
Article
This paper studies the effects of increasing the frequency of observation and the data span on the Johansen cointegration tests. The ability of the tests to detect cointegration depends more on the total sample length than the number of observations.
Article
This paper develops a two-period disequilibrium model of a small open economy under Keynesian unemployment to analyse the effects of temporary, anticipated, and permanent coffee price shocks. The model includes a government sector that administers a commodity price stabilisation fund, and allows for capital market imperfections. The type of capital...
Article
Full-text available
This paper investigates long-run relationships among the spot prices of four coffee types. We find two cointegrating vectors: one between the prices of Other Milds and Colombian coffee, and the other one between Unwashed Arabicas and Robustas. Following Pesaran and Shin (1996), persistence profile analysis of the two cointegrating vectors shows a r...
Article
Johansen's analysis of cointegrated systems is used to build a model of the Colombian real exchange rate (RER). One cointegrating vector is found, which can be thought of as a long-run RER equation. The deviations of the RER from its long-run equilibrium relationship, after correcting for short-run dynamics, are interpreted as a measure of RER misa...
Article
We examine the effects of exogenous changes in the level or seasonal pattern of a series on the HEGY test. These changes bias both unit root and seasonal root tests. New critical values for the HEGY tests are presented.
Article
Full-text available
This work investigates the evolution of electricity prices for domestic customers in the UK since the introduction of competition. The empirical analysis is based on a panel data set containing detailed information about electricity supply prices over the period 1999 to 2003. The analysis aims to test theoretical hypotheses about the nature of cons...

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