Jessica E. Halofsky

Jessica E. Halofsky
University of Washington Seattle | UW · School of Environmental and Forest Sciences

24.3
 · 
PhD
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Projects (4)
Project
The key research question is “How can fire-adapted forests be restored and managed under changing climatic conditions to be maintained as long-term carbon sinks?”
Research
Research items (58)
Article
Full-text available
Future vegetation shifts under changing climate are uncertain for forests with infrequent stand-replacing disturbance regimes. These high-inertia forests may have long persistence even with climate change because disturbance-free periods can span centuries, broad-scale regeneration opportunities are fewer relative to frequent-fire systems, and matu...
Data
Ecological description of each MC2 forest zone and state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) used in the analysis. (DOCX)
Data
Similarity in mapped forest zones between the species distribution model (SDM) developed by [1] and the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model for the 1979–2009 period. (DOCX)
Chapter
The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership facilitated the largest climate change adaptation effort on public lands to date, including participants from federal agencies and stakeholder organizations interested in a broad range of resource issues. It achieved specific goals of national climate change strategies for the U.S. Forest Service and Nati...
Chapter
The Northern Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Northern Rockies (USA) region, and developed solutions that minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. The NRAP region covers 74 million hectares, spanning northern...
Article
The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership (BMAP) was established to increase climate change awareness, assess vulnerability to climate change, and develop science-based adaptation strategies for national forest lands in the Blue Mountains region of northeast Oregon and southeast Washington (USA). The BMAP process included (1) development of a scien...
Article
Full-text available
Warming temperatures are projected to greatly alter many forests in the Pacific Northwest. MC2 is a dynamic global vegetation model, a climate-aware, process-based, and gridded vegetation model. We calibrated and ran MC2 simulations for the Blue Mountains Ecoregion, Oregon, USA, at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. We calibrated MC2 using the best...
Article
Full-text available
Building resilience to natural disturbances is a key to managing forests for adaptation to climate change. To date, most climate adaptation guidance has focused on recommendations for frequent-fire forests, leaving few published guidelines for forests that naturally experience infrequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Because most such forests are inh...
Article
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Over the last decade, considerable progress has been made in developing vulnerability assessment tools and in applying these methodologies to identify and implement climate change adaptation approaches for forest ecosystems and forest management organizations in Canada and the United States. However, given that adaptation processes are in early sta...
Article
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In the semi-arid environment of the Blue Mountains, Oregon (USA), water is a critical resource for both ecosystems and human uses and will be affected by climate change in both the near- and long-term. Warmer temperatures will reduce snowpack and snow-dominated watersheds will transition to mixed rain and snow, while mixed rain and snow dominated w...
Book
This book is the result of a team of approximately 100 scientists and resource managers who worked together for two years to understand the effects of climatic variability and change on water resources, fisheries, forest vegetation, non-forest vegetation, wildlife, recreation, cultural resources and ecosystem services. Adaptation options, both stra...
Article
Full-text available
Public lands in the US Rocky Mountains provide critical ecosystem services, especially to rural communities that rely on these lands for fuel, food, water, and recreation. Climate change will likely affect the ability of these lands to provide ecosystem services. We describe 2 efforts to assess climate change vulnerabilities and develop adaptation...
Article
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National forests in the Blue Mountains (USA) region have developed adaptation options that address effects identified in a recent climate change vulnerability assessment. Adaptation strategies (general, overarching) and adaptation tactics (specific, on-the-ground) were elicited from resource specialists and stakeholders through a workshop process....
Article
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Multiple climate change vulnerability assessments in the Pacific Northwest region of the USA provide the scientific information needed to begin adaptation in forested landscapes. Adaptation options developed by resource managers in conjunction with these assessments, newly summarized in the Climate Change Adaptation Library of the Western United St...
Article
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While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and tradeoffs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenari...
Article
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Climate change will likely have significant effects on forest ecosystems worldwide. In Mediterranean regions, such as that in southwestern Oregon, USA, changes will likely be driven mainly by wildfire and drought. To minimize the negative effects of climate change, resource managers require tools and information to assess climate change vulnerabili...
Article
Full-text available
Recent vulnerability assessments, conducted in diverse regions in the northwestern United States, indicate that many commonalities exist with respect to projected vulnerabilities to climate change. Dry forests are projected to have significant changes in distribution and abundance of species, partially in response to higher temperature and lower so...
Chapter
This chapter discusses an approach that uses MC1 results to create climate-informed state-and-transition simulation model (cSTSMs) in two contrasting landscapes: dry forests in central Oregon and wet forests in western Washington. The studies presented here examine trends in different socioecological values under different climate and management as...
Article
Determining appropriate actions to create or maintain landscapes resilient to climate change is challenging because of uncertainty associated with potential effects of climate change and their interactions with land management. We used a set of climate-informed state-and-transition models to explore the effects of management and natural disturbance...
Chapter
Full-text available
Land managers and others need ways to understand the potential effects of climate change on local vegetation types and how management activities might be impacted by climate change. To date, climate change impact models have not included local- ized vegetation communities or the integrated effects of vegetation development dynamics, natural disturb...
Article
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Climate change, along with exotic species, disturbances, and land use change, will likely have major impacts on sagebrush steppe ecosystems in the western U.S. over the next century. To effectively manage sagebrush steppe landscapes for long-term goals, managers need information about the interacting impacts of climate change, disturbances and land...
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods Effective climate change engagement on public lands is characterized by (1) an enduring science-management partnership, (2) involvement of key stakeholders, (3) consideration of broad landscapes with multiple landowners, (4) science-based, peer-reviewed assessments of sensitivity of natural resources to climate change,...
Article
Full-text available
Context Recent policy changes in the USA direct agencies managing federal forests to analyze the potential effects of climate change on forest productivity, water resource protection, wildlife habitat, biodiversity, and other values. Aims This paper describes methods developed to (1) assess current risks, vulnerabilities, and gaps in knowledge;...
Article
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We developed a process that links the mechanistic power of dynamic global vegetation models with the detailed vegetation dynamics of state-and-transition models to project local vegetation shifts driven by projected climate change. We applied our approach to central Oregon (USA) ecosystems using three climate change scenarios to assess potential fu...
Article
Full-text available
We used a combination of field measurements and simulation modelling to quantify the effects of salvage logging, and a combination of salvage logging and pile-and-burn fuel surface fuel treatment (treatment combination), on fuel loadings, fire behaviour, fuel consumption and pollutant emissions at three points in time: post-windstorm (before salvag...
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods With increasing recognition that management on a single ownership can affect adjacent landowners, management agencies are increasingly interested in landscape studies spanning multiple ecological and political boundaries. Yet to date, the data available from landowners is often inconsistent and the ability to assess bro...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Background/Question/Methods Information on the effects of management activities such as fuel reduction treatments and of processes such as vegetation growth and disturbance on fire hazard can help land managers prioritize treatments across a landscape to best meet management goals. State and transition models (STMs), such as the Vegetation Dynami...
Article
The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) is a three-year effort that produces information, models, data, and tools to help land managers, policymakers, and others examine mid- to broad-scale (e.g., watersheds to states and larger areas) prioritization of land management actions, perform landscape assessments, and estimate potential effect...
Chapter
Full-text available
Planning and management for the expected effects of climate change on natural resources are just now beginning in the western United States (U.S.), where the majority of public lands are located. Federal and state agencies have been slow to address climate change as a factor in resource production objectives, planning strategies, and on-the-ground...
Article
Full-text available
Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help land-management agencies take steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. Because the development of adaptation tools and strategies is at an early stage, it is important that ideas and strategie...
Article
Forest Ecology and Management j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / f o r e c o a b s t r a c t Climate change resulting from increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO 2 ]) is expected to result in warmer temperatures and changed precipitation regimes during this century. In the northweste...
Article
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Although mixed-severity fires are among the most widespread disturbances influencing western North American forests, they remain the least understood. A major question is the degree to which mixed-severity fire regimes are simply an ecological intermediate between low-and high-severity fire regimes, versus a unique disturbance regime with distinct...
Article
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This guidebook contains science-based principles, processes, and tools necessary to assist with developing adaptation options for national forest lands. The adaptation process is based on partnerships between local resource managers and scientists who work collaboratively to understand potential climate change effects, identify important resource i...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, process, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource man...
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, process, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are neede...
Article
Full-text available
Fire in riparian areas has the potential to influence the functions riparian vegetation provides to streams and aquatic biota. However, there is little information on the effects of fire on riparian areas. The objectives of the present study were to: (i) determine how fire severity interacts with riparian topographic setting, micro-environmental co...
Article
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There is no standard quantitative measure of fire severity. Although different measures of fire severity are often assumed to be closely related, information on the relationships between these measures of fire severity is limited. Information on the relationship between various fire severity indices is particularly lacking for riparian zones, criti...
Article
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We sought to understand how vegetation indicators and local topographic factors interact to influence riparian fire severity in two recent fires in Oregon, USA. A stratified random sampling design was used to select points in a range of fire severity classes, forest stand ages, and stream sizes in each fire. At each point, plots were sampled in rip...
Article
Land application of municipal biosolids on coal mine spoils can benefit vegetation establishment in mine reclamation. However, the application of biosolids leads to domination by early-successional species, such as grasses, and low establishment of woody and volunteer species, thus reducing potential for forestry as a postmining land use. In this e...
Article
Full-text available
The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 requires that coal mine sites in the United States be reclaimed to establish vegetative cover that is diverse, native, and capable of plant succession. However, there is a question as to whether vegetation established on coal mine sites reclaimed with biosolids is diverse and capable of plant s...
Article
Full-text available
Hay-scented fern is an invasive species that has increased in abundance over the last half of the twentieth century. Since this species may limit woody regeneration, it is important for forest managers to understand why its prevalence is increasing. Eighteen sugar maple stands across Pennsylvania were sampled to determine if soil chemistry and cano...