Jennifer Considine

Jennifer Considine
University of Dundee · School of Law

Doctor of Philosophy
Visiting Senior Research Fellow King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

About

58
Publications
4,596
Reads
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45
Citations
Introduction
Senior Research Fellow CEPMLP, University of Dundee, and King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center. Research Interests and contemporary projects include the following: • Quantitative analysis, strategy and valuation of Spot crude oil, and options sales from Major Oil Producers to Chinese teapot refineries. • World Oil Outlook—including short and long term forecasts of WTI, Brent and Crude Oil Demand and Supply. • Crude oil inventory and logistics study. Quantitiative, and geo-spacial analysis of world crude oil flows, inventories, and equity prices. • Financial markets, high frequency trading, options pricing, and financial derivatives regulation.
Additional affiliations
March 2016 - present
King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
Position
  • Senior Researcher
Description
  • Crude oil inventory and logistics study. Quantitiative, and geospacial analysis of world crude oil flows, inventories, and equity prices.
July 2003 - present
University of Dundee
Position
  • Senior Researcher
Description
  • Research in the areas of Global Energy Trading, Derivatives Pricing, Resource Curse, Scottish Energy Policy, Emissions Trading, Russian Crude Oil and Global Energy Markets
Education
August 1996 - August 1999
University of Aberdeen
Field of study
  • Economics
January 1989 - December 1989
University of Michigan
Field of study
  • Economics
August 1983 - July 1985
University of Chicago
Field of study
  • Economics

Publications

Publications (58)
Chapter
Full-text available
This book provides a guide to the progress made thus far in the transformation of Russian industry from exclusive reliance on state enterprises during the communist era to modern-oriented private sector firms. Further, it outlines the remaining constraints to the full transition of Russia into a modern market economy and how to remove those constra...
Book
Full-text available
'. . . a timely review of the sometime triumphs and repeated failures of Russian oil industry planning. As this comprehensive volume makes clear, the interaction between Russia and global oil markets has often been critical. Over the last century, Russia has played a leading role in oil economics, and as the authors demonstrate, Russia's untamed po...
Article
According to conventional storage theory, the difference between spot and futures prices (known as the ‘basis’) can be explained by the total cost of storing a commodity for a specific period of time. The theory predicts a positive relationship between inventory levels and the basis, and a negative correlation between inventories and marginal conve...
Article
Full-text available
This study develops a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model to simulate various types of shocks to oil markets and to see whether such shocks are time-sensitive in oil markets. Our model extends the canonical Mohaddes and Pesaran (2016) model temporally (to 2018Q3), spatially (including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela), and by adding oil inventorie...
Method
Element1's Vision Develop CCUS facilities in Alberta that are integrated within existing energy systems that will result in carbon reductions while economically creating net zero hydrogen and low carbon-intensity power. Element1 Energy Inc. ("Element1") is an Alberta company that is proposing a transformative approach to the development of replicab...
Experiment Findings
The Proposed Project: The ultimate project for this Emission Reduction Alberta, carbon capture kickstart expression of interest application is the development of the “Element1 Facility”, a 160 tonne per day net-zero ‘blue’ hydrogen production facility with associated 120 MW cogeneration facility and 1,500 TPD CO2 carbon capture plant that will be i...
Preprint
This paper introduces the World Crude Oil Storage Index (COSI). The COSI is designed to be a benchmark for crude oil trading, hedging and investments for market participants. It can also provide advance signals for energy policy, which can then be used to rebalance global and regional oil markets and energy transitions. The COSI demonstrates the fo...
Preprint
High in the Bavarian Alps, at a special security session, G7 leaders set out to devise an ambitious plan to sanctions Russian energy sales. The intent is to reduce Russian profits from oil and gas sales, while simultaneously minimizing the damage to developed economies due to rising fuel prices and inflation. The proposed solution, a ceiling on the...
Preprint
We categorize the major sources of uncertainty on world oil markets into five primary markers of uncertainty: supply disruption, spare capacity, shale production, demand, and financial and counterparty risk. Over the longer term, there are a number of structural factors affecting markets including Covid 19 variants and recovery, EU border adjustmen...
Preprint
KAPSARC hosted a webinar on December 21 st and 22 nd , 2021 in conjunction with Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and the Center for Energy, Petroleum, and Mineral Law and Policy to investigate the causes and consequences of short-term price volatility and provide a roadmap for the role of policy in the mitigation of oil price risk. The conversat...
Data
Review Reviewed Work(s): The Russian Oil Economy by Jennifer I. Considine and William A. Kerr Review by: Richard N. Cooper Source: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 82, No. 1 (Jan. - Feb., 2003), p. 160 Published by: Council on Foreign Relations Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/20033445 Accessed: 22-03-2022 06:04 UTC
Article
Full-text available
Abstract A joint oil stockpiling facility no more than 3 days sailing from its key markets would be ideally positioned as a Strategic Petroleum Reserve for net importing nations during times of crisis and tight markets. At other times, the facility would have additional value in its capacity to provide an excellent central location for the sale of...
Article
The Politics of Oil: Controlling Resources, Governing Markets and Creating Political Conflicts, by Dag Harald Claes - Book Review by: Jennifer Considine
Article
Full-text available
With extensive natural resources and strategic access to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, Canada has the potential to become a global energy powerhouse – provided that the nation is successful in alleviating its infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), Canada has the third-largest crud...
Article
Full-text available
Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear to depend on market conditions at the time of forecast and the idiosyncratic na...
Article
Full-text available
After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth more than $100 billion. This insight examines the impact of global trade disputes on oil markets.
Presentation
Our supply/demand forecast is an average for each period and does not take into account short term volatility. Actual changes will, of course, remain volatile amid continued geopolitical events. These challenges include sanctions, trade and technology tensions, a growing number of countries facing economic slowdowns, and unexpected oil supply cuts.
Article
The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook “KOMO” provides a comprehensive overview of world oil markets, including supply and demand balances, crude oil inventories, and Brent crude oil prices. Our goal is to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis on world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world...
Article
Full-text available
World Oil Balancing: The Complex Relationship between Market Structure and Inventories Key Points Give a ‘snapshot’of global inventories for the world, at any given time there may be ‘well balanced’ oil market, or regional or global surpluses or shortage of crude oil supplies, and inventories that can trigger a price reaction, and subsequent rebal...
Research
Full-text available
The goal of this research project is to study the other side of the coin — the security of oil demand from the net-exporters perspective. How do large oil exporters trade off risk and rewards in ensuring the security of demand? In the first phase of this research project, a comparative static model of global oil trade is developed to empirically me...
Article
Full-text available
This study develops a ‘real options’ style valuation model, and applies it to a hypothetical case study in Northeast Asia ― from the perspective of a crude oil exporter located a considerable distance away from some of its main markets ― to determine the potential value of ex-storage spot crude oil sales, using strategically located JOS facilities....
Article
Barring unforeseen circumstance, the Chinese teapots are here to stay and continue to grow. It is a market that the Major Oil Companies cannot ignore. There are three strategies that companies can take advantage of to penetrate this growing segment of the Chinese oil market. The first is to team up with the teapot refineries and Chinese NOCs. This...
Research
The past few years has seen a period of rising crude oil supplies, and increased competition on world oil markets. In this atmosphere of intensified competition and shrinking margins, increasing volume was the key to financial success. At the same time, traditional roles are changing, and some believe that the US is well positioned to become the ne...
Article
This study develops a ‘real options’ style valuation model, and applies it to a hypothetical case study in Northeast Asia - from the perspective of a crude oil exporter located a considerable distance away from some of its main markets - to determine the potential value of ex-storage spot crude oil sales, using strategically-located JOS facilities....
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the complex problem of Russian reform, with a focus on the issue of idle oil wells in the Russian Federation. Specifically, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the economic viability of rehabilitation at the height of the Russian Oil Crisis---and its effects on the long term development of the Russian oil industry. If...
Article
Full-text available
This study seeks to determine whether there is defined and quantifiable relationship between market structure of the crude oil industry, contango, and oil inventories, and what the exact nature of that relationship might be. The analysis suggests that these basic predictions of inventory theory are valid for weekly, and daily, frequencies but that...
Article
Full-text available
Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting models, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or cost to society, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of any specific political or economic disturbance are unclear and would appear to depend on the market conditions existing at the time of forecast,...
Book
Starting with the fundamentals of the global energy industry, Handbook of Energy Politics goes on to cover the evolution of capital and financial markets in the energy industry, the effects of technology, environmental issues and global warming and geopolitics. The book concludes by considering the future, including the lessons learned from history...
Article
Full-text available
There is growing concern that extractive industry projects may lead the host country to suffer from "resource curse". One possible solution is to undertake the project in stages thereby slowing the development of the project and thus the inflow of revenues to the host government. There are clear benefits to both governments and companies from such...
Chapter
The upstream petroleum sector is an extremely important industry to the Russian Federation. The Russian Government wishes both to encourage the development and expansion of the industry, while at the same time allowing the benefits arising from this industry to accrue widely across the economy. This is a question of tax policy--if taxes are too low...
Article
Full-text available
Changes in the grading systems of agricultural commodities will lead to considerable adjustment costs. In 1972 Canada introduced a change in its grading system for beef. The period of adjustment for beef producers has been in excess of ten years. The observed pattern of adjustment for one of Canada's cattle-producing areas is discussed and the cost...

Questions

Questions (5)
Question
It would seam that there are some fundamental changes to the global oil industry taking place in response to the growing tensions in Europe.  OPEC is facing new challenges, and US inventories are nearing historic lows.
#oilprice
#OPEC
Question
ABSTRACT
The global oil market is going through an extraordinary period. The twin shocks of a significant increase in global supply and a remarkable fall in oil demand appear to have no parallel in history. Together, the collapsed OPEC+ agreement and the coronavirus outbreak have put OPEC and the value of its role in the market back into the spotlight. As KAPSARC has previously studied and written, OPEC’s ability to measure and offset oil market shocks through the use of its spare production capacity has been a substantial stabilizing force, perhaps reducing oil price volatility by as much as half. However, the scale of the current disruption is too big for OPEC to rebalance the market alone.
Question
The Stability of World Oil Markets, and the Potential For Oil Shocks
What are the main market characteristics that determine the stability of world oil markets. Given four potential scenarios (quadrants) of relative change—rising storage levels, rapidly rising storage levels, falling storage levels, and rapidly falling storage levels—what are the market characteristics that determine which quadrant we are in. Is there a stable path between quadrants?
In the context of the current status of world oil markets, we are holding a workshop at KAPSARC on February 27th to answer the following questions: 1) What are the 📷key market characteristics that determine the stability of world oil markets? 2) How high do inventories have to be before the world oil markets become over-supplied? 3) Are the current levels of inventories so high that we are at risk of another downward price shock?
I would love to hear your ideas?
If you are interested in attending the workshop please click on the link below.
Question
Many analysts are preparing for $80 per barrel oil this summer, but the futures curve for Brent tells a different story. A return to backwardation and crude oil prices in the low $60 per barrel range. Will declining global GDP pave the way for falling oil prices, and how low could they go?
Question
It would seam that there are some fundamental changes to the global oil industry, including the new developments of Shale in North America and Europe.  OPEC is facing new challenges, and downward revisions to Chineses demand.

Network

Cited By

Projects

Projects (6)
Project
Developing Hydrogen, CCUS and Net-Zero Fuels. Element1 utilizes existing Canadian energy and midstream infrastructure assets to create "Blue" hydrogen, CCUS and net-zero fuel solutions throughout the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. We have developed a novel integration of proven technologies in a manner not previously incorporated to create reduced carbon intensity solutions for Canadian industry and residents, and global fuel providers.