Jehoshua EliashbergUniversity of Pennsylvania | UP · The Wharton School
Jehoshua Eliashberg
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102
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Introduction
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July 1982 - present
Publications
Publications (102)
For most major movies, consumers have a choice to watch them in a theater or on home video. While each viewing channel has its own advantages and disadvantages, consumers are watching the same underlying product—a specific movie. An unanswered question is whether consumers enjoy watching a specific movie more in a theater or video setting. Using IM...
Significance
Why are some narratives (e.g., movies) or other texts (e.g., academic papers) more successful than others? Narratives are often described as moving quickly, covering lots of ground, or going in circles, but little work has quantified such movements or tested whether they might explain success. We use natural language processing and mac...
Before their launch, many new products generate word of mouth (WOM) on social media. Such WOM typically increases toward the release date and contains sudden spikes. These spikes capture manifestations of peak consumer attention and are therefore of managerial importance, yet they have not received research attention. This article is the first to p...
In the early stage of film development when producers assemble a development team, it is important to understand the means by which different team members may contribute to the film's box office. Building upon theories from marketing and sociology, we propose that these contributions arise from team members' positions, or embeddedness, in a social...
This paper provides a rich overview of a research program in Negotiations. Areas of Applications include Sales, Channel and International. Possible approaches to studying Negotiations are identified. Comparison with other quantity discount schedule models in the extant marketing-manufacturing literature are contrasted. Results of experimental work...
We develop a methodology to predict box office performance of a movie at the point of green-lighting, when only its script and estimated production budget are available. We extract three levels of textual features (genre and content, semantics, and bag-of-words) from scripts using screenwriting domain knowledge, human input, and natural language pr...
The pharmaceutical industry leads all industries in terms of R&D spend. Portfolio management in new drug development is extremely challenging due to long drug development cycles and high probabilities of failure. In 2010, a pharmaceutical company like GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) spent over USD 6 billion in R&D expenditure and managed a total of 147 R&D p...
This chapter explores the academic literature and empirical evidence associated with the strategic and tactical opportunities available to pharmaceutical firms confronted with the loss of patent protection on their branded drug. The marketing dimensions of product innovation, pricing, and brand equity options are considered together with exclusivit...
We empirically examine the financial impact of production duration in a multi-stage production process for creative products. In particular, we analyze a novel data set from the movie industry to shed light on how the total production time and duration of individual stages affects box office revenues. We find that total production time is negativel...
Strategic preannouncement of a new product launch by a firm creates a pent-up demand (or consumers committed to purchase prior to launch) for the new product. The level of the pent-up demand depends, among other factors, on the timing and the reputation of the firm announcing the new product; it is critical in shaping up the diffusion process of th...
In a viral marketing campaign organizations stimulate customers to forward marketing messages to their contacts. To optimize a viral campaign it is necessary to predict how many customers will be reached, how this reach evolves, and how it depends on pro- motion activities. A new Viral Branching Model can provide these results. It is based on insig...
This article analyzes one key characteristic shared by a growing number of industries. Specifically, their products and services are continuously monitored and evaluated by local third-party ratings systems. In this study, we focus on understanding the local drivers of restrictive age-based ratings in the motion picture industry and the effect of l...
The modeling framework developed here to address the positioning and pricing of a product line assumes that products differ
in price and in a single physical attribute. It incorporates a flexible representation of customer heterogeneity, allowing
for price-sensitive demand, and a rich class of supply-chain cost models. A key characteristic of poten...
A central focus of database marketing is on predicting customer defection (churn). We argue this focus would be better placed on predicting when customers become inactive, which often precedes the time at which the customer terminates the contract, and represents a behavioral regularity found across several contractual markets. We model customers'...
In a viral marketing campaign, an organization develops a marketing message and encourages customers to forward this message to their contacts. Despite its increasing popularity, there are no models yet that help marketers to predict how many customers a viral marketing campaign will reach and how marketers can influence this process through market...
This paper reports the development and implementation of a decision support system in a non-traditional domain — the motion picture industry. The approach reported here is evolutionary, and the model was designed to assist exhibition executives in movie scheduling. After an earlier successful collaboration in scheduling a single theater with multip...
In a viral marketing campaign an organization develops a marketing message, and stimulates customers to forward this message to their contacts. Despite its increasing popularity, there are no models yet that help marketers to predict how many customers a viral marketing campaign will reach, and how marketers can influence this process through marke...
In this paper, we focus on the perspective and business model of the rentailer — a retail outlet that rents and sells new and used home video titles. This requires predicting the consumer's decision to rent or buy a particular title, segmenting its customer base, and pricing new and used titles. We develop a new model based on a simple heuristic fo...
hen a DVD title is announced prior to actual distribution, consumers can often preorder the title and receive it as soon as it is released. Alternatively, once a title becomes available (i.e., formally released), consumers can obtain it upon purchase with minimal delay. We propose an individual-level behavioral model that captures the aggregate pre...
Globalisation, liberalization and rapid technological developments have been changing business environments drastically in the recent decades. These trends are increasingly exposing businesses to market competition and thus intensifying competition. In such an environment, the role of marketing management support systems (MMSS) becomes exceedingly...
New products are often launched sequentially, by different firms, and the purchasing decisions are sometimes made by dyads. This paper proposes a new model that explicitly considers dyadic decision making in drug prescription and allows assessment of the relative influence that physicians and patients have in making decisions concerning new as well...
A stochastic (diffusion) sales response model to advertising is postulated. Optimum advertising policies are then found by solving a stochastic control problem with reflecting boundaries. Analytical results are obtained and interpreted to yield insights regarding a firm's risk behaviour and its optimal advertising policy.
Movie studios often have to choose among thousands of scripts to decide which ones to turn into movies. Despite the huge amount of money at stake, this process--known as green-lighting in the movie industry--is largely a guesswork based on experts' experience and intuitions. In this paper, we propose a new approach to help studios evaluate scripts...
This paper describes a model that generates weekly movie schedules in a multiplex movie theater. A movie schedule specifies within each day of the week, on which screen(s) different movies will be played, and at which time(s). The model consists of two parts: (i) conditional forecasts of the number of visitors per show for any possible starting tim...
We thank the various local ratings/ classifications offices for providing the ratings data as well as information concerning their structure and procedures. Mark Leenders also thanks the Erasmus Trustfund for providing financial support.
The motion picture industry has provided a fruitful research domain for scholars in marketing and other disciplines. The industry has high economic importance and is appealing to researchers because it offers both rich data that cover the entire product lifecycle for many new products and because it provides many unsolved “puzzles.” Although the am...
E-commerce has proved to be fertile ground for new business models, which may be patented (for up to 20 years) and have potentially far-reaching impact on the e-commerce landscape. One such electronic market is the reverse-auction model popularized by Priceline.com. There is still uncertainty surrounding the survival of such new electronic markets...
The supply chain for movies released for theatrical exhibition consists of the distributor, exhibitor, and the audience, as shown in Figure 5.1. The audience has opportunities to watch moveis in a number of distribution outlets: domestic theaters, foreign theaters, home video, and cable and network TV, where the time lags between the releases of th...
We develop an econometric model to study a setting in which a new product is launched first in its domestic market and only at a later stage in foreign markets, and where the product's performance (“demand”) and availability (“supply”) are highly interdependent over time within and across markets. Integrating literature on international diffusion,...
In many new product development (NPD) situations, the development process is characterized by uncertainty, and no single development approach will necessarily lead to a successful product. To increase the likelihood of having at least one successful product, multiple approaches may be simultaneously funded at the various NPD stages. The managerial...
Every Monday morning, Pathe´ Theaters in the Netherlands decides which movies in its cinemas to retain and which to replace. It must choose replacement movies from those available at that time. We implemented the SilverScreener model, a mathematical-programming system [Swami, Eliashberg, and Weinberg 1999] to help Pathe´ managers make those decis...
For most firms, new product development is the engine for growth and profitability. A firm's new product success depends on its ability to manage the product development process in a way that employs scarce resources to achieve the goal of the firm as well as the specific project's objectives. Simple and measurable performance metrics have been pro...
In many new product development (NPD) situations, the development process is characterized by uncertainty, and no single development approach (e.g., a particular technological version) will necessarily lead to a successful product. In order to increase the likelihood of having at least one successful product at the end of the NPD process, managers...
this paper we describe how SilverScreener was implemented and used by a movie
This paper shows how two different theoretical approaches to model innovation adoption, network threshold modeling and random utility modeling, both result in discrete-time hazard models, a popular statistical modeling approach to study innovation adoption and diffusion. The paper emphasizes the need for careful situational analysis prior to model...
We show how one can specify micro-level hazard models of adoption that separately represent the awareness and evaluation/choice stage of the adoption decision process even when one observes only the final outcome, i.e. adoption or not. These models can be derived from random utility theory. Using a small simulation study, we show that the two-stage...
In spite of the high financial stakes involved in marketing new motion pictures, marketing science models have not been applied to the prerelease market evaluation of motion pictures. The motion picture industry poses some unique challenges. For example, the consumer adoption process for movies is very sensitive to word-of-mouth interactions, which...
Managing the allocation of shelf space for new products is a problem of significant importance for retailers. The problem is particularly complex for exhibitors—the retailers in the motion picture supply chain—because they face dynamic challenges, given the short life cycles of movies, the changing level of demand over time, the scarcity of shelf s...
Many products carry a warranty that offers protection for the consumer against low quality. These warranties are often two dimensional, such as an automobile warranty that guarantees repair up to a certain time and mileage after sale. This paper considers the problem of assessing the size of a reserve needed by the manufacturer to meet future claim...
Technological advances provide vast opportunities for new product development. Some technologies are transformed into successful new products; others are not. In this paper we investigate the role that marketing research methods as currently conceived can play in aligning marketplace needs with technological potential. We discuss the types of oppor...
Critics and their reviews pervade many industries and are particularly important in the entertainment industry. Few marketing scholars, however, have considered the relationship between the market performance of entertainment services and the role of critics. The authors do so here. They show empirically that critical reviews correlate with late an...
Critics and their reviews pervade many industries and are particularly important in the entertainment industry. Few marketing scholars, however, have considered the relationship between the market performance of entertainment services and the role of critics. The authors do so here. They show empirically that critical reviews correlate with late an...
For most firms producing fast-moving consumer packaged goods, line extension is central to their new product development (NPD) strategy. The authors present a decision-support system for managing the NPD process in this industry, which explicitly evaluates the financial prospects of new line extension concepts. The system developed is based on an i...
For most firms producing fast-moving consumer packaged goods, line extension is central to their new product development (NPD) strategy. The authors present a decision-support system for managing the NPD process in this industry, which explicitly evaluates the financial prospects of new line extension concepts. The system developed is based on an i...
The primary objective of this paper is to develop a parsimonious model for forecasting the gross box-office revenues of new motion pictures based on early box office data. The paper also seeks to provide insights into the impact of distribution policies on the adoption of new products. The model is intended to assist motion picture exhibitor chains...
Reduction of new product development cycle time and improvements in product performance have become strategic objectives for many technology-driven firms. These goals may conflict, however, and firms must explicitly consider the tradeoff between them. In this paper we introduce a multistage model of new product development process which captures th...
In this paper we investigate how to make empirical generalizations in marketing. We argue that for substantive empirical generalizations to exist in an area, there should be a sufficient body of research about recurring phenomena. We outline criteria and a procedure to search for and identify such generalizations, and we apply the procedure to the...
The authors focus on NPA signals, which they define as new product announcements in advance of market introduction. They develop a set of hypotheses regarding incumbent reactions to NPA signals and test them in a field study among managers in the United States and the United Kingdom. The authors' findings provide a characterization of the factors a...
The authors focus on NPA signals, which they define as new product announcements in advance of market introduction. They develop a set of hypotheses regarding incumbent reactions to NPA signals and test them in a field study among managers in the United States and the United Kingdom. The authors’ findings provide a characterization of the factors a...
There has been a call to investigate the negotiation process (Gale, D. 1986, Shubik, M. 1982), as it is felt that this would yield important insights beyond those obtained by outcome-oriented theories (Roth, A. E. 1979). This paper proposes a new analytical process model that captures both behavioral and economic aspects related to two-party negoti...
Consumer behavior researchers are getting more interested in the experiential aspect of consumption, which focuses on the fun and enjoyment that consumers derive from hedonic experiences. We build upon the experiential view of consumer behavior, and present an innovative modeling approach to studying the dynamics of hedonic consumption experiences....
The development of new products inevitably leads to tradeoffs among product performance, time to market, and development costs. In addition, the unit cost of the product, which is determined by the product performance, is also affected by the design process. In this paper, we present a model framework that examines the interaction of these factors....
This chapter describes some tangible benefits that emerge from coexistence and outlines some techniques in management science that have been developed to address this issue. At this point, it seems worthwhile to consider some additional perspectives in order to identify existing gaps that may offer further research opportunities. Few of the models...
This paper presents an analytical approach to determine optimal target positions (locations) for a discontinuous innovation in the perceived product-attributes space. The new product-concept positioning problem involves the determination of technologically and economically feasible (but believable) of either the specific combination(s) of the level...
We test the relative effectiveness of alternative preparation aids in the context of an international negotiation. We consider three forms of training: reading material, a course on negotiation, and an expert system (NEGOTEX) expressly designed to train negotiators. We conducted a laboratory experiment involving 66 pairs of negotiators—one of each...
We model joint production-marketing strategies for two firms with asymmetric production cost structures in competition. The first firm, called the “Production-smoother,” faces a convex production cost and a linear inventory holding cost. The second firm, called the “Order-taker,” faces a linear production cost and holds no inventory. Each firm is a...
A model of the innovation diffusion process is developed using a micromodeling approach that explicitly considers the determinants of adoption at the individual level in a decision analytic framework, and incorporates heterogeneity in the population with respect to initial perceptions, preference characteristics, and responsiveness to information....
In recent years, artificial intelligence research has provided new tools and techniques for marketing model builders. These tools, when combined with problem-solving knowledge from a specific domain, can be used to create expert systems. This methodology is most applicable in semistructured problem domains where the key relationships are logical ra...
A three-stage time-lagged diffusion model that incorporates consumers' income, advertising and price effects is proposed. The derivation of the model synthesizes and relies upon a number of important arguments made in the diffusion and economic literature. Optimal control theory is used to derive normative advertising and pricing strategic implicat...
A large number of marketing decisions are based on "expert" judgments. In the emerging field of expert systems, techniques are being developed for systematically representing and using expert knowledge in computer systems. The computerization of marketing expertise will enhance decision support to marketing managers. The authors evaluate the opport...
A large number of marketing decisions are based on “expert” judgments. In the emerging field of expert systems, techniques are being developed for systematically representing and using expert knowledge in computer systems. The computerization of marketing expertise will enhance decision support to marketing managers. The authors evaluate the opport...
The objective of this study is to develop an econometric model for the diffusion of innovations at the individual country level, but which also allows the parameters of the process to differ systematically across countries. The conceptualization rests on behavioral and spatial theories of diffusion and extends the domain to international markets. T...
The authors describe a methodology and a personal-computer-based decision model for selecting optimal market testing strategies. A Bayesian decision theoretic framework is used that (1) considers continuously distributed payoffs, (2) allows for updating of information on market response to strategies that are not being tested directly (relaxing the...
The authors describe a methodology and a personal-computer-based decision model for selecting optimal market testing strategies. A Bayesian decision theoretic framework is used that (1) considers continuously distributed payoffs, (2) allows for updating of information on market response to strategies that are not being tested directly (relaxing the...
The authors describe an exploratory study of the preannouncement of new products in advance of market introduction. The basic premise taken is that preannouncement is a marketing manifestation of signaling. The focus is on identifying conditions that are likely to induce firms to preannounce new product introductions. A survey of managers explores...
The authors describe an exploratory study of the preannouncement of new products in advance of market introduction. The basic premise taken is that preannouncement is a marketing manifestation of signaling. The focus is on identifying conditions that are likely to induce firms to preannounce new product introductions. A survey of managers explores...
This paper presents a model that considers the interface between marketing and production decisions in a channel of distribution of industrial goods comprised of a manufacturer and a distributor. The key issue investigated is the nature of the coordination within the channel in light of an unstable pattern of seasonal demand. The investigation, whi...
Overview of a research program in Negotiations. Areas of Applications include Sales, Channel and International. Possible approaches to studying Negotiations. Comparison with quantity discount schedule models. Impact of higher risk aversion on the part of the channel partner. Impact of Agenda setting on Licensee and licensor.
This paper presents the development of a new stochastic multidimensional (scaling) unfolding (Coombs 1964) methodology which operates on paired comparison consumer preference or choice data and renders a spatial representation of both consumers and the products or brands they choose. Consumers are represented as ideal points and products as points...
Many collective decision-making and bargaining situations can be described through the set of the feasible joint evaluations of all conceivable settlements. Attention should then be restricted to that subset (Pareto-optimal frontier) from which no joint gains are possible. Hence, the focal issue becomes which element of the Pareto-optimal subset sh...
The results of the study show the robustness of two utility-based negotiation theories-group decision theory and Nash's bargaining solution-in accurately predicting outcomes of a marketing channel laboratory simulation in which power and information conditions were varied. Both theories significantly outperformed the predictions of a random model....
The results of the study show the robustness of two utility-based negotiation theories—group decision theory and Nash's bargaining solution—in accurately predicting outcomes of a marketing channel laboratory simulation in which power and information conditions were varied. Both theories significantly outperformed the predictions of a random model....
This paper analyzes dynamic pricing strategies for new durable goods in a two-period context. The first period is characterized as a monopoly market structure for a new product having dynamic demand. The second period begins when a new firm enters the market, and thereby changes the market structure to a duopolistic one.
We begin by analyzing the p...
The authors review a representative cross-section of analytical models of competition using a framework for competitive analysis developed from a marketing perspective. Models are classified by the substantive issues they address and by the underlying modeling strategy. The implications of the various models are presented and discussed, and a set o...
The authors review a representative cross-section of analytical models of competition using a framework for competitive analysis developed from a marketing perspective. Models are classified by the substantive issues they address and by the underlying modeling strategy. The implications of the various models are presented and discussed, and a set o...
This study integrates concepts and ideas from various disciplines to investigate and measure relationships between conflict and sets of multiple business goals in a channel of distribution. The relationships are examined empirically by means of a set of dyadic data. The results demonstrate the similarities and differences between channel members in...
This study integrates concepts and ideas from various disciplines to investigate and measure relationships between conflict and sets of multiple business goals in a channel of distribution. The relationships are examined empirically by means of a set of dyadic data. The results demonstrate the similarities and differences between channel members in...